The Weekly Watch

COVID Confusion

It is getting worse. It is going away.
Lock down, open up, lock down.
You don't need to wear a mask. You must wear a mask.
Test those with symptoms. Test everyone. Don't bother testing.
Use antibody tests. Antibody tests don't work.
About 5-8% of people are asymptomatic. Over half the population has been asymptomatic.
People develop immunity after infection. People can be infected multiple times.
The virus came from bats. It was engineered in a lab.
And on and on. This is like a pandemic managed by the Keystone Kops...

It's been over half a year and basic research still hasn't been done. Why hasn't a randomized clinical trial looking at infection rate been done in every state or at least region? Perhaps because understanding the extent of this disease might eat into the profits?
Let's see if we can parse out some things we do know, look at strategies which might prevent infection, and if you are infected what treatments might effective.

confusion.png


Friday in the US there were 66,627 new confirmed cases, 14,074 recoveries, 802 deaths. The current 7-day rolling average of 55,775 new cases/day grew 53.1% from 14 days ago.
https://covidusa.net/

cases vs death.png

Data Sources: John Hopkins CSSE & CDC Testing Report

Death rates do appear to be increasing, but it will take a couple more weeks to be sure.
John Campbell looks at the global situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg927g0HLjs

What do we know?
Most deaths occur with folks 65 and older...

coronavirus covid mortality us by age.png
fatality rate by age.png

The researchers found that the CFR (case fatality rate) for those with an underlying health condition is much higher than for those without. For instance, more than 10% of people with a cardiovascular disease, and who were diagnosed with COVID-19, died. Diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, hypertension, obesity. and cancer were all risk factors ...
By comparison, the CFR was 0.9% – more than ten times lower – for those without a preexisting health condition.
Above we saw that the elderly are most at risk of dying from COVID-19. As we said there, that might be partly explained by the fact that they are also most likely to have underlying health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and diabetes; these health conditions make it more difficult to recover from the COVID-19 infection.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatality-rate-of-co...

US comorbidity.png

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-19-underly...

These complicating factors (comorbidities) are all symptoms of hyperinsulinemia or metabolic syndrome. It is estimated that about 70-80% of people in the US are hyperinsulinemic and may account for our large proportion of global cases and deaths. Over 40% are vitamin D deficient, and 80% of black folks (who are disproportionately infected) are deficient.

Although older folks are most likely to have complications, younger folks can be seriously affected by COVID. Mike Mutzel looks into a severe COVID case in a 40 year old https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzxlR608iyk&t=2m (about 5 min)
and suggests diet (and hormone supplements) are playing a key role.

We know diet is the primary cause of hyperinsulinemia and a change can result in remarkable health gains. An excellent film displaying anecdotal stories called "The Magic Pill" demonstrates how food can be a magic pill...
Here's the full 1.5 hour documentary which is normally behind a paywall

(there are Spanish subscripts)
Here's a 2.5 min trailer if you don't have the time to watch the whole thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61GitUC_678

This is a nice description by a doctor on positive patient results with just diet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iAXJ7Iiti4 (12 min)

For many, many other stories from both doctors and patients...
https://www.youtube.com/c/lowcarbdownunder/videos
https://www.youtube.com/c/PHCukorg/videos

So my first idea is eat healthy. The doctor above suggests - focus on protein, embrace healthy fats, and avoid carbohydrates, and then grow toward intermittent fasting to eliminate your comorbidities.

John Campbell describes the effect of obesity on COVID.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob2GcGUUUxM (20 min)

The risk isn't just death. COVID infection can result in permanent debilitating conditions like lung damage.

Extreme fatigue, nausea, chest tightness, severe headaches, "brain fog" and limb pains are among the recurring symptoms described by some sufferers of Covid-19 for weeks - and even months - after their diagnosis. They call themselves "long-haulers" and their symptoms persist long after the 14-day period that's officially said to be the average length of the illness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53269391

CVOID appears to be a blood clotting disease. That is why so many different organ systems can be impacted...lungs, brain, gut, and so on.
John Campbell explains. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TL-n0LWBEJQ (25 min)
I like the way John summarizes the big point at the start and then goes into detail for those that want the deeper dive.

This explains why...

Now a team of European researchers have found that people with blood type A had a 45% higher risk of catching coronavirus and developing "COVID-19 with respiratory failure," compared to people with other blood types. On the other hand, people with type O blood had a 35% lower risk for this more serious form of COVID-19.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200618/blood-type-could-impact-odds-fo...

Months into the pandemic, there is now a growing body of evidence to support the theory that the novel coronavirus can infect blood vessels, which could explain not only the high prevalence of blood clots, strokes, and heart attacks, but also provide an answer for the diverse set of head-to-toe symptoms that have emerged.

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-w...

Specifically, the coronavirus may target endothelial cells that line your blood vessels and help protect your heart, prevent clotting and keep blood flowing smoothly. This could also explain why people with high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease are at higher risk of COVID-19, because all of these conditions already impact endothelial cells.

This understanding is leading to new treatments. ...blood thinners. The MATH+ protocol has been suggesting their use for months.

The MATH+ Hospital Treatment Protocol for COVID-19 is a physiologic and evidence-based treatment protocol created by leaders in their field – to save lives. It is a formula of FDA-approved, safe, inexpensive, and readily available drugs.

Despite volumes of evidence and success stories, the treatment protocol still isn't widely adopted.

As a working group with over 200 years of combined experience in critical care and emergency medicine, we designed the MATH+ Hospital Treatment Protocol for COVID-19 and, to date, are having remarkable success using it to treat patients in hospitals that permit its use. The treatment protocol is intended for patients who present in the emergency room or hospital with low oxygen levels and trouble breathing. We are in the process of gathering patient data to scientifically demonstrate its efficacy.

The administration of intravenous corticosteroids and ascorbic acid, starting in the emergency room and continued every 6 hours while in the hospital, greatly reduces the mortality rate of this disease and the need for mechanical ventilation. Furthermore, because the inflammation caused by COVID-19 is causing high rates of blood clotting in multiple organs, MATH+ includes the use of blood thinners.

What I find interesting is the number of Doctors and organizations that continue to push Remdesivir, which has little to no effect on mortality and at best shortens the hospital stay...at $3000+/5 day treatment.

Dr. Fauci launched Remdesivir in late June. According to Fauci, Remdesevir is the “corona wonder drug” developed by Gilead Science Inc. It’s a $1.6 billion dollar bonanza.

Meanwhile..

.There is an ongoing battle to suppress Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a cheap and effective drug for the treatment of Covid-19. The campaign against HCQ is carried out through slanderous political statements, media smears, not to mention an authoritative peer reviewed “evaluation” published on May 22nd by The Lancet, which was based on fake figures and test trials.

The study was allegedly based on data analysis of 96,032 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between Dec 20, 2019, and April 14, 2020 from 671 hospitals Worldwide. The database had been fabricated. The objective was to kill the Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) cure on behalf of Big Pharma.

While The Lancet article was retracted, the media casually blamed “a tiny US based company” named Surgisphere whose employees included “a sci-fi writer and an adult content model” for spreading “flawed data” (Guardian). This Chicago based outfit was accused of having misled both the WHO and national governments, inciting them to ban HCQ. None of those trial tests actually took place.

http://tapnewswire.com/2020/07/lying-liars-and-the-expensive-ineffective...

Last week Chris Martenson looked into the use and effectiveness of HCQ and Ivermectin
https://www.peakprosperity.com/covid-19-vindication-hcq-ivermectin-work/
Once again inexpensive FDA approved drugs, however not yet labeled for COVID. They want to wait until more trials are conducted instead of saving lives today.

A Henry Ford Health System study shows the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients, the Detroit-based health system said Thursday. Officials with the Michigan health system said the study found the drug “significantly” decreased the death rate of patients involved in the analysis.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/02/michiga...

Preliminary findings released Tuesday for a U.S.-based clinical trial of anti-parasite drug ivermectin found that the mortality rate for coronavirus patients fell 40%, according to the Medrxiv.org site.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/ivermectin-covid/2020/06/09/id/971417/

So why are such effective treatments being ignored? The news media has been silent as well. Both JAMA, The Journal of the American Medical Association and MedCram fail to examine these effective treatments. Perhaps big pharma has totally brainwashed the medical establishment.

Let's return to the nature of this viral infection.

They have learnt how the virus enters and hijacks cells, how some people fight it off and how it eventually kills others. They have identified drugs that benefit the sickest patients, and many more potential treatments are in the works. They have developed nearly 200 potential vaccines — the first of which could be proved effective by the end of the year.

But for every insight into COVID-19, more questions emerge and others linger. That is how science works. To mark six months since the world first learnt about the disease responsible for the pandemic

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01989-z

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-herd-immunity-may-unachievable-121847...
This virologist says that claim is nonsense because perhaps half the infected people fight it off with the T cells.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ph4SqLJPDhs&t=21m50s

... a full picture of SARS-CoV-2 immunity is likely to extend beyond antibodies. Other immune cells called T cells are important for long-term immunity, and studies suggest that they are also being called to arms by SARS-CoV-23,4. “People are equating antibody to immunity, but the immune system is such a wonderful machine,” says Finzi. “It is so much more complex than just antibodies alone.”

Because there is not yet a clear, measurable marker in the body that correlates with long-term immunity, researchers must piece together the patchwork of immune responses and compare it with responses to infections with other viruses to estimate how durable protection might be. Studies5 of other coronaviruses suggest that ‘sterilizing immunity’, which prevents infection, might last for only a matter of months. But protective immunity, which can prevent or ease symptoms, could last longer than that, says Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology in California.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01989-z

Some people who seemingly recover end up expressing symptoms again, some months later.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/yes-you-can-get-covid-19-twice/

The looming issue now is how to reopen schools.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/social-sector/our-insights/safely-ba...

The anecdotal evidence, he said, is that children do not transmit the coronavirus to adults as readily as adults infect one another. But, he acknowledged, “the definitive study has not been done."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/with-coronavirus-science-still-iff...

Our local schools are considering opening certain days for a rotating cohort of students, as well as providing an online option for those who want to stay home. Since young people rarely have an issue with COVID, it really is an issue of young students acting as a vector bringing the virus home and infecting the rest of the family. In Asia where schools only closed briefly, all students wear masks.
These three virologist first discuss how the virus spreads and then tackle the reopening of schools. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ph4SqLJPDhs&t=37m12s
Their discussion of when we shed the most virus particles re-enforces the need for masks.

liberty masked.jpg

Masks are such a no brainer, but if anything I'm seeing fewer rather than more. I live in Trumplandia and somehow mask wearing has become politicized. The virus doesn't care about politics. It is an equal opportunity disease agent.

Fortunately, RCTs (randomized clinical trials) on mask usage exist, and one was indeed conducted in 2008 to examine the use of masks in households to prevent respiratory virus transmission. An 80% reduction in contracting respiratory illness among compliant patients was seen. When masks are worn, they are extremely efficacious.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/should-we-be-promoting-the-widesp...

health experts say the evidence is clear that masks can help prevent the spread of COVID-19 and that the more people wearing masks, the better.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-here...

Preventative supplements?

Vitamin D tops the list.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/new-study-suggests-vitamin-d-linked-covi...

Vitamin C is right up there too
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14787210.2020.1706483

Quercetin is a well-known flavonoid whose antiviral properties have been investigated in numerous studies.

There is evidence that vitamin C and quercetin co-administration exerts a synergistic antiviral action due to overlapping antiviral and immunomodulatory properties and the capacity of ascorbate to recycle quercetin, increasing its efficacy

https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Quercetin-COV...

Zinc is no COVID-19 magic bullet, but it has shown to help with other coronaviruses. “In my experience as a virologist and pathologist, zinc will inhibit the replication of many viruses, including coronaviruses. I expect COVID-19 will be inhibited similarly, but I have no direct experimental support for this claim..."
https://www.uchealth.org/today/zinc-could-help-diminish-extent-of-covid-19/
Zn(2+) Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity in Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21079686/

All of these are known to be safe and will probably help prevent infection and severity if infected.

So there's always more, but I think the big points are:

1. I want to avoid being infected and possibly infecting others. I wear a mask in public places and usually gloves too. I distance from others as well.

2. We need our friends, but when visiting we distance AND stay outside where the virus isn't as infectious.

3. Use a healthy diet to minimize and even eliminate comorbidities.

4. Consider taking vitamin and mineral supplements to possibly prevent infection and symptoms.

5. Prepare a treatment plan if you do develop symptoms. Consider HCQ and the MATH+ protocol (and find a doctor willing to use them).

I hope you all are well and avoiding this deadly disease. The misinformation is rampant is it is difficult to parse truth from profit. Be well friends!

As a parting shot Jimmy nails this interview. I wish more people would speak like him...

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It's been almost 6 months since we knew about the pandemic. N95 masks work to protect you. Cloth masks provide medium to no self protection. I used to buy box of n95 masks for my shop at around $10. The cost of manufacture can't be more than 25 cents. Where are the frigging n95 masks? The banks and corporations got trillions of dollars and we can't get n95 masks. The people are getting mixed messages about wearing masks, even today. The official position in MA is - if you can't social distance then wear a mask. So, folks venture outside without masks, figuring that they can social distance. Meanwhile wherever they go there is a fog of aerosol droplets surrounding them and infecting us. I just drove to a local rec and camping park. Filled full, lots of people and not one mask. Give it a few weeks and MA will be back up on the curve. It's a combination of no one in charge and a population that can't be bothered to save itself.

Just one more point. Writing opinions on this pandemic is risky as there are almost no scientifically proven facts, almost all anecdotal and opinions... except for wearing masks. That works, but we need n95 masks. Where are they?

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

Lookout's picture

@The Wizard

American companies sold more than $17.5 million worth of face masks, more than $13.6 million in surgical garments and more than $27.2 million in ventilators to China during the first two months of the year, far exceeding that of any other similar period in the past decade, according to the most recent foreign trade data available from the U.S. Census Bureau.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/02/us-exports...

Additionally China appears to have nationalized their production preventing export to the US
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/26/china-has-nationalized...

Never let the people's health get in the way of more profit!

And though it is true anecdotal stories are not 'proof' they do provide some evidence...about all we have to go on.

Thanks for the "visit". I always enjoy your insightful, knowledgeable comments around the site!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout In February Trump sent 17.8 tons of medical supplies, including PPE and ventilators to China. No wonder the national shelves were bare.

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Lookout's picture

@sandiapeach

no people before profit. Gotta get real you know.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

Lotsa good data to sift through here.

Here's another good link to more sources from Swiss Policy Research.

One quibble:

The risk isn't just death. COVID infection can result in permanent debilitating conditions like lung damage.

Extreme fatigue, nausea, chest tightness, severe headaches, "brain fog" and limb pains are among the recurring symptoms described by some sufferers of Covid-19 for weeks - and even months - after their diagnosis. They call themselves "long-haulers" and their symptoms persist long after the 14-day period that's officially said to be the average length of the illness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53269391

There are no studies that show the malaise that many 'long haulers' suffer is permanent, nor that the symptom (which is a head issue) has anything to with lung damage, which in a lot of cases has been caused not by the virus itself but by treatment with ventilators that seem to do more harm than good.

I have discussed previously the difference between short term effects of a long illness versus the alleged long term effects of a short illness. Apparently the BBC is still having trouble figuring out that difference - or doesn't want to.

Still, nice work.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Lookout's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger
Thanks-
Worth checking out -
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

I stated it poorly, but was trying to say some people are suffering long term symptoms. Thanks for the correction. How are you? Any long term effects from your infection?

I remember reading a comment from you somewhere on the site that you had a relapse of symptoms at one point. At any rate hope you are doing well!

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7 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Lookout

Got this thing very early (before we all had even heard of it) after a flight abroad.

All told I've been symptom free for nearly 5 months now, so I'm fairly confident I've kicked it.

Check the link (I also posted above) if you want to know more about the relapse part - which I also also got. I originally documented my bout here.

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8 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Lookout's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

...is the one I remembered. Sorry I missed it on the first read.

Glad you're doing well, and hope there is real immunity.

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

magiamma's picture

Thanks for another excellent WWatch. I liked the clarity of Hyperinsulinemia explanation regarding the pancreas’ role.

Check out “ Vida Face Masks” or shopvida.com. They make a good fitting cloth mask that you can slip a hepa filter into.

We are still dealing with climate.

Climate Tipping Points Are Closer Than We Think, Scientists Warn | InsideClimate News

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27112019/climate-tipping-points-perma...

The scientists focused on nine parts of the climate system susceptible to tipping points, some of them interconnected:

Arctic sea ice, which is critical for reflecting the sun's energy back into space but is disappearing as the planet warms.
The Greenland Ice Sheet, which could raise sea level 20 feet if it melts.
Boreal forests, which would release more carbon dioxide (CO2) than they absorb if they die and decay or burn.
Permafrost, which releases methane and other greenhouse gases as it thaws.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a key ocean current, which would shift global weather patterns if it slowed down or stopped.
The Amazon rainforest, which could flip from a net absorber of greenhouse gases to a major emitter.
Warm-water corals, which will die on a large scale as the ocean warms, affecting commercial and subsistence fisheries.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would raise sea level by at least 10 feet if it melted entirely and is already threatened by warming from above and below.
Parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheetthat would also raise sea level significantly if they melted.

Take good care and have a good one

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Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation

Hot Air Website, Twitter, Facebook

Lookout's picture

@magiamma

A federal judge rejected a request from the operator of the Dakota Access Pipeline to halt an order to shut down the oil pipeline during a lengthy environmental review.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg denied the company’s request Thursday, effectively sending the case to a panel of judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/07/10/federal-judge-re...

Of course it isn't enough. Fracking simply needs to be shut down as well.

Keep on keeping on my friend. Ring the climate alarm. The signs are everywhere.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

magiamma's picture

@Lookout
Fighting to not shut down Nord Stream. If that is completed it will reduce the amount of fracked gas we export.

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Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation

Hot Air Website, Twitter, Facebook

Lookout's picture

@magiamma

none the less the export of US gas (thanks Obummer) needs to stop.
https://www.factcheck.org/2018/11/obamas-misleading-oil-boast/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2016/01/15/president-obamas-petrole...

Whata world, and hasn't the virus distracted from almost everything?

Take care, and enjoy your garden. Ours is constant these days. Lots to harvest and process.

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10 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

magiamma's picture

@Lookout
Hoping Nord Stream is completed. The less fracked gas the better.

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9 users have voted.

Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation

Hot Air Website, Twitter, Facebook

Lookout's picture

@magiamma

plus the much closer Russian gas is less likely to be accidentally spilled.

Wish we would seriously try to get off it all together, but...

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Azazello's picture

Thinking of bugging out ?
You ain't goin' nowhere.
American Passports Are Worthless Now
If you haven't seen this, it really is a must watch:
System Update with Glenn Greenwald - How Congress Maintains Endless War
(YouTube, 1 hr.7 min.)
This is good too: Calling out NYT "unprofessional" reporting on 'Bountygate'
(YouTube, 23 min.)
Have a nice Sunday.

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Lookout's picture

@Azazello

Look forward to watching.

I'm not planning on going anywhere. To much to do right here for one thing, and I don't really think things are better elsewhere in this global pandemic.

Had you seen the clip with Jimmy on Jessie's show? I thought he was in good form after his vacation. I think he and Stef rented an RV for their outing.

Take care my friend and thanks as always for the links!

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9 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Azazello's picture

@Lookout
Watching it now. I knew they were back from vacay, they did a livestream on Friday.

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No need to wait, especially for one- to two-month delayed CDC data:

Deaths for the week ending July 4: 3,425
Deaths for the week ending July 11: 4,610

A 35% increase week-over-week.

Jesus fucking christ already, enough of this "we're not sure yet"!!! The facts are right fucking there. Covid-19 is definitely *not* disappearing.

Link from Today

From the link:

Scientists warned it wouldn't last. A coronavirus death, when it occurs, typically comes several weeks after a person is first infected. And experts predicted states that saw increases in cases and hospitalizations would, at some point, see deaths rise too. Now that's happening.

I'm really sick and tired of folks claiming covid-19 is disappearing when using any amount of looking at the daily data and using just a *smidge* of educated thinking would tell you things are going to increase. Claiming otherwise is *dangerous* because people will read it and think to themselves "Oh, I read something on the internet that things are getting better, so now I don't need to be as careful!"

Sorry--I'm not going to make a new essay about it because it seems to rub some here the wrong way, but geez, people, wise the fuck up! How hard is it to see hospitalization rates increasing in places that are opening up and make the conclusion "that means increased death rates will follow". Increased levels of testing don't mean squat to increased hospitalization rates.

/rant

Not saying that it's happening everywhere--some states, like New York, finally have decent control over things. If you're in a state where things are good, that's actually fucking fantastic, and good for you and yours! But, don't extrapolate your own experience to the rest of the world, y'know?!?

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Lookout's picture

@apenultimate

You can see the upward trend in death rates and we know there is a two week lag. Much of rubbing people wrong is in our tone. Especially when online with no gestures nor facial expressions.

No doubt this is a serious disease, but from my view we are over reacting. Taiwan had a much more sensible approach. https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-coronavirus/a-52724523

From NHK's link... https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

According to the latest immunological and serological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% and thus in the range of a strong seasonal influenza (flu).

In countries like the US, the UK, and also Sweden (without a lockdown), overall mortality since the beginning of the year is in the range of a strong influenza season; in countries like Germany, Austria and Switzerland, overall mortality is in the range of a mild influenza season.

Even in global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.

Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. Over 95% of all persons develop at most moderate symptoms.
Up to 60% of all persons may already have a certain cellular background immunity to Covid-19 due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses). The initial assumption that there was no immunity against Covid-19 was not correct.

The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years (e.g. 86 years in Sweden) and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.

In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.

Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.

Even in so-called “Covid19 deaths” it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronavirus (i.e. from underlying diseases) or if they were counted as “presumed cases” and not tested at all. However, official figures usually do not reflect this distinction.

Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 turned out to be false: many of these young people either did not die from Covid19, they had already been seriously ill (e.g. from undiagnosed leukaemia), or they were in fact 109 instead of 9 years old. The claimed increase in Kawasaki disease in children also turned out to be false.

When people are scared it is easy to create things like the CARES act with its massive transfer of wealth to the elite. What is the risk? I explained my personal approach. I don't want COVID, but I think my health is excellent and if infected I expect mild to no symptoms. Focusing on our person health is key IMO.

Please feel free to write an essay or express your concerns as a comment here. I like to think I'm open minded and accepting of other view points.

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9 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout @Lookout @Lookout
but this:

According to the latest immunological and serological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% and thus in the range of a strong seasonal influenza (flu).

is clearly a lie. Again and again and again, the pooh-pooh camp have tried to downplay this by equating it to a bad seasonal influenza, and again and again and again the data have exposed them for the agenda-driven liars that they are -- beginning with the fact that Covid-19 has already killed twice as many Americans as any seasonal flu ever. Regardless of which, the 0.1% number is preposterous on the face of it.

It is, indeed, estimated by some authorities that the IFR of a bad seasonal flu is about 0.1% (BTW, until recently the anti-vax community has insisted that such estimates were grossly inflated so that the CDC could carry out its evil agenda of harming as many of us as possible while pouring billions into the pockets of big Pharma). However, Covid-19 has already killed about 0.15% of all the people -- not just infected ones -- in New Jersey. It has killed at least 0.2% of all the people -- not just infected ones -- in New York City. It has killed at least 0.1% of all the people -- not just infected ones -- in the UK.

I don't understand how people's thinking can be so broken. At one point, an actual professor of actual epidemiology at an actual university in actual London, England, suggested that the IFR might be about 1 in a thousand, or even as low as 1 in 10,000, at a time when it had already killed 6 or 7 out of every 10,000 UK residents. WTF is wrong with her cognitive faculties? How the fuck can she do her fucking job, at all?

I am infuriated by the grotesque abuse of statistics by the pooh-poohers -- such as the profoundly stupid aggregate US mortality chart to which NHK linked elsewhere in this thread (posted on a website that has been dedicated since day one, for whatever bizarre ideological reasons, go downplaying the risks from this disease). What do you, the reader, take away from that chart? How closely did you examine it? Do you think it indicates that Covid-19 has been an insignificant blip in US mortality? Well let me smartsplain it for those of you whose IQ tops out at the 99.98%ile (which surprisingly turns out to be not quite high enough to overcome, via reasoned analysis, an emotional investment so enormous that it even defeats the owning mind's capacity for self-awareness):

A. It is stupid, deceptive, inane and wrong to treat the US as an aggregate demographic/geographic/political blob in the context of a dynamic phenomenon whose intensity is varying not only in time, but across demographic/geographic/political boundaries. This is especially so when the dynamics of the phenomenon are being affected by policies enacted within those political boundaries. Look at Canada: 5600 dead in Quebec (pop: 8.2 million); 7 dead in Manitoba (pop: 1.4 million). In the US, hotspots where the virus ran out of control like NYC, NJ, and CT saw mortality rates running multiple times higher than expected -- and corresponding charts show this, with dire mountains swelling up from late march to mid-may, mountains that are not mole-hilled by the dishonest device of glomming them in with numbers from less-affected areas. Elsewhere (i.e., most of the country), policies that limited the spread of the disease apparently prevented a similar explosion of excess mortality. Or maybe it's just that God Hates Fags, but only in NYC and NJ. You tell me.

B. What the chart actually shows us is that we were having, for whatever reason, a remarkably low-mortality winter. One suspects it was an exceptionally mild flu year (the same pattern is observed in several other nations in the northern hemisphere), but there must have been other factors (e.g., mild weather). Regardless, aggregate mortality in 2020 was running at a very nice 98% or so of statistical "expectation" -- quite remarkably low, in fact. And then ... something strange happened in mid-March. Something powerful. Something that dropped into that very nice low-mortality winter and crushed it.

We know, of course, what that something was: It was Covid-19, which by running wild in half-a-dozen states representing about 20% of the US population overwhelmed the negative mortality trend, not only of those states, but of the entire nation.

In other words, although that chart was presented, both on its original site, and by NHK here, to advance an "anti-alarmist" agenda -- and please, don't insult us all with protests of a devotion to objective reason, your agenda is glowing -- it is evidence in favor of the opposition: that uncontrolled across the nation, Covid-19 would lift aggregate mortality by somewhere between 10% and 100% (i.e., double expectations), at least during its first year. Despite efforts to control it, it has already lifted 2020 mortality by about 5% above where it was trending, and it's just ramping up in TX, CA, FL, and AZ, which comprise about 30% of the population, and methinks a 30% demographically tilted to the age group most vulnerable.

And now I'm going to retreat once more into arid isolation, having been yet again vexed to nightmare from several weeks of stony sleep by the cumulative emetic effect of a series of arguments and claims so weak, small, daft and ideologically-motivated that any high schooler should be capable of seeing them for the bunk that they are, given just a very little guidance.

PS: "death rate" is not, for the most part, a term of epidemiological art, so it's pointless arguing about what it means -- it means precisely what the user intends it to mean in any given context.
Here are some useful definitions. unfortunately, even these lack the excruciating precision necessary to outwit Wittgenstein, or alternatively, to jam up the piehole of some pedantic jackass who refuses to acknowledge that his axe has been ground to the haft.
Mortality rate refers to total deaths within a population, either from a particular cause, or overall.
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) refers to the proportion of deaths from a disease, amongst all persons diagnosed with the disease.
Infection Fatality Rate (EDIT to fix abbreviation: CFR IFR) refers to the proportion of deaths from an infectious disease, amongst all persons having the disease, whether diagnosed or not. It is, of epistemological necessity, a statistical inference with considerable uncertainty.

EDIT to add: When I say they lack precision, I mean they are not even fully the precise definitions employed by epidemiologists, etiologists, and such-folk. The precise definitions incorporate time, which really complicates the matter.

And also to note that although this comment appears as a response to one by LO, it is directed at the source material, not her comment itself.

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11 users have voted.

The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

Lookout's picture

@UntimelyRippd

I appreciate your science perspective. The point of this essay is the confusion around this disease. I hope you will shine any illumination you can provide.

I certainly agree wiht both of your statemnts:

It is stupid, deceptive, inane and wrong to treat the US as an aggregate demographic/geographic/political blob in the context of a dynamic phenomenon whose intensity is varying not only in time, but across demographic/geographic/political boundaries.

That says to me we need different strategies in different regions.

What the chart actually shows us is that we were having, for whatever reason, a remarkably low-mortality winter.

doesn't that suggest that we are addressing this incorrectly? For example just wearing mask and separating seems a good mitigation no matter.

Thanks for adding your view.

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7 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@UntimelyRippd
To me they are one and the same. These low death rates quoted are "Deaths from all causes" dived by total population. Yeah, that's different if Florida from Wyoming. To me, my interpretation, we are interested Deaths among COVID infected persons divided by total infected persons, what you call CFR. We can't even look at total deaths from COVID divided by number of currently (or currently and former) infections. You can divide by the number of infections that occurred and are over (one way or the other). i.e. what you call CFR. That looks to me more like 5% not 0.1% And yes, the risk may not be the same for everyone. 5% is bad. Very bad. It's not a bad flu season. But it's not the Black Death (30%? 50%?) either. And even though I am in a prime risk group, I have to say, "Is it worth destroying our economy and what's left of our democracy?). Simple things like not crowding and wearing masks are reasonable. Closing businesses entirely is not reasonable. IMHO, we have more to fear from wild inflation and great depression II than COVID. YMMV. Answer me this: Why are nursing home deaths running wild when the nursing homes are closed to all visitors? It must be the staff bringing the virus in because no one else is allowed in. So what good does barring visitors do except to depress the inmates?

Food is scarce and getting scarcer as meat is flown out of the country to China. Meanwhile, I recently saw a "sale" on chuck roast. $10.99 a pound. That's not a sale. That's gouging. Limitations on milk. Limitations on WATER. And getting used to being a pig because toilet paper is worth it's weight in gold IF you can find it!

A modern industrial economy cannot be put on hold for months. The FED can prop up the stock market but those trillions of QE dollars are causing inflation. Soon after the election, the foreclosures and evictions will start. Don't know what I'll do when Biden takes away my SS because I'm "rich" or Trump cancels all Federal pensions by executive order (as he has threatened). Just hope that Nancy winds up coughing her lungs out on a ventilator. I still plan to wash down all of my heart pills at once with a bottle of whiskey when the end comes. Five per cent? I don't like Russian roulette with a 20 chamber pistol, but that's about the death rate of my school mates that were drafted into Vietnam. It's the politicians that I fear, not the virus.

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9 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Lookout's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

is the mass distraction/obsession...preying on fear to drive greed.

"Is it worth destroying our economy and what's left of our democracy?). Simple things like not crowding and wearing masks are reasonable. Closing businesses entirely is not reasonable. IMHO, we have more to fear from wild inflation and great depression II than COVID.

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3 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout
Nothing else of interest happening? No news of the spate of child killings in Chicago?
Nothing on the international front? Just COVID COVID COVID 24 hours a day. IMHO, scaring the general public into giving up all their rights. Not the right to appear without a mask. The right to equal treatment under the law. Freedom from arbitrary search and seizure. Freedom to VOTE!

I have seen more actual data in this diary than in a week of "COVID! WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE! (unless Biden is elected)" Meanwhile, "social distancing", so the SoS requires me to wait in the hot sun in line outside the building in 90+ degree weather to process my doctor's handicapped plate application or to get the lien removed from my car's title. That wold be being a real COVID casualty.

P.S.
Regarding this weeks spate of child killings on the west and south sides (I guess those particular Black lives Didn't Matter): Murders always go up in those watrds with the heat, unless it rains. But I guess gangbangers figure "It's to hot to be inside. Let's go out and kill a baby for fun/revenge.)

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6 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Lookout's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

...of mass distraction. And it ain't no accident.

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@The Voice In the Wilderness for COVID-19 would have been in the fifteenth century?

What do you think IR and CFR would be today if there had been no containment/suppression efforts anywhere in the world? Do you really think China "locked down" over a really bad flu? Have you any idea what the numbers looked like to Chinese epidemiologists and authorities when they made the drastic decision to "lock down" as the least debilitating course? Do you think the impact on the Chinese economy wasn't a carefully considered factor? Do you even have any idea of all the control/suppression efforts that were implemented in China? The extent of public volunteer efforts in support of their medical and government efforts?

At this time, we know nothing more than the reported numbers to date throughout the world, and some (many?) of those reported numbers aren't accurate. China's probably are accurate, but the majority of their numbers are from Wuhan/Hubei. China's CFR is 5.5% and an estimate of the IR in Wuhan was 0.55%. As if right now the IR in the US is 1.03%, but drill down on that number by states (NY is at 2.2%) and localities and it gets even worse.

Italy's and Belgium's numbers don't appear to be manipulated; both have a 14+% CFR. Belgium's IR is 0.54%. Did the delay on containment/suppression efforts almost triple their CFR compared to China?

The first COVID-19 confirmed cases appeared in several countries around the same time 20-25 January. Some didn't delay in implementing containment/suppression efforts. S. Korea didn't "lock down" (although schools were closed), but was doing airport screening (on average has caught just less than half the imported cases). The IR is good but not great, but it has done very well on CFR. Taiwan and Hong Kong have also done well. But the "rock star" is a much poorer country that knows a few things about organization and maximizing resources. For those interested, I offer three reports:

24 April Quarantine-Mobiilization

21 June 97 million/ 0 deaths

10 July socialist success

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3 users have voted.

@Marie
A Capitalist Country can't.

And I never said that it was a bad flu. In fact, I said it wasn't just the flu.
I did say it wasn't the Black Death, either.

The Fortune Five are using the lockdown to destroy all the little companoesw. That's why Democrats want to lock down for years.

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2 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

travelerxxx's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

That's why Democrats want to lock down for years.

Me thinks, should the Democrats manage to oust Trump (not assured at all), they will start sounding quite a bit like Trump in regard to lockdowns. In fact, if true to form, not much will change at all. I believe Biden even said so.

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3 users have voted.

@travelerxxx

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1 user has voted.

We are so screwed.

@The Voice In the Wilderness that you don't understand?

btw - Vietnam didn't lock down; it applied a sophisticated form of lock-in, lock-out combined with isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing. In addition to being egalitarian as to the health of all its people, Vietnam understands its limited wealth and medical resources and therefore, it was imperative for them to limit the number of cases as much as possible.

S. Korea, a capitaliat country, didn't lock down either, but figured it had enough wealth and medical resources to manage a larger number of cases than Vietnam.

As it our wont in the US, we accepted the worst of all possible options; a half-assed lock down to spare a quick and complete meltdown of US hospitals and further enrich the largest corporations and further impoverish the little gals and guys.

Come on -- you're a math and systems guy. Nobody knows what COVID-19 could have turned into and we still don't know what the damage in the long run will be. China used a very conservative analysis based on whatever its numbers were at that time which had to have been horrendous for them to take the draconian steps it did. Steps that were approved of by the vast majority because they trust that their government has their backs. (Contrary to western propaganda, the Chinese government continuously polls their people and actually listens.) China was in a unique position wrt to COVID-19 as it was hit hard at the beginning which is a good reason to cut it some slack. Had it first emerged in the US, it would have spread much further and wider. Absent any lock down, not difficult to imagine a 40% IR and 15% CFR. Those are scary numbers.

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3 users have voted.

@Marie

As it our wont in the US, we accepted the worst of all possible options; a half-assed lock down to spare a quick and complete meltdown of US hospitals and further enrich the largest corporations and further impoverish the little gals and guys.

I absolutely agree.

Contrary to western propaganda, the Chinese government continuously polls their people and actually listens.

Then they are smart. Apparently they don't have the usual upper class attitude that the masses are mindless cattle. They appease them. Or "guide" opinion. but no middle fingers to the public.

Of course maybe if US citizens didn't behave like mindless cattle, they might get some respect.

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2 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

@The Voice In the Wilderness Perhaps just more practical. Doubt that upper class attitude towards the masses is absent; perhaps only moderated (regulated). They had many disadvantages (massive rural population, limited natural resources), but a few advantages (a high value is placed on familial and societal harmony, they chose not to be conquered again by foreign powers or another dynasty, and didn't tolerate the proliferation of abrahamic religions) Economic mobility between the classes may not be all that good, but perhaps not as bad as the US and a little bit better year after year for those on the lower rungs goes a long way.

Control with a carrot or stick?

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2 users have voted.

@Marie
"A modern industrial nation of 300 million along the coast, attached to a third world country of one billion inland." At the P.O. one day, I was cleaning dropped mail from under a sorting machine. There was a big thick magazine with skyscrapers on the cover. I was wondering where it was. Paris? London? The custodian sweeping up, a Chinese lady, said excitedly, "That's my home town! That's Shanghai!" To the point of the quote, her ninety something mother was crippled and her brother had to carry her around. They finally managed to hire a caretaker from the boondocks, a fortyish widow with no sons from a farming community, which is not a good thing to be. This woman was thrilled to get a work permit to come and live in the big city and all she had to do was cook and clean a small apartment, and carry and bathe a small old lady. Probably seemed like a vacation for a farm woman used to USA 18th or 19th century rural stoop labor. Suzan ("call me 'Susan` everybody does none of you can pronounce my name correctly anyway") was a very interesting person. Born to a landholding family (minor nobility?), married to a peasant man that she obviously scorned, then divorced and managed to emigrate to the USA. When she completed her naturalization, I was proud to register to vote (I was a Cook county deputy registrar at the time). She was eager to vote for Obama. And absolutely thrilled when I showed her the application form to get a Chinese character mail-in ballot. I don't agree with the policy of having non-English ballots, but I was happy for my new friend. She's now retired too, living in a condo with her daughter who is an accountant. they were re-united after a twenty five year separation because in China children of divorce go with their father, not the mother as in America. I already knew that they are considered part of the father's family and Chinese women do not take their husband's family name. Another Chinese friend had told me that, exclaiming in horror, "That would be rejecting her family!", an unforgivable sin in Chinese culture.

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0 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

@The Voice In the Wilderness Look at the skyscrapers in Wuhan that's further west and non-coastal.

Immigrants from anywhere are probably different from those that don't emigrate, and it's the latter that maintains and builds a country. Personally, I've liked all immigrants and temporary residents that I've known casually or well. I appreciate their willingness to share/explain their culture to me and I return the favor. For about a year I tutored a young man from UAE. He loved his country and culture, but while in the US he was open to experiencing as much as possible about the US which he did like. I became his cool out of the box friend; although he may have formed the impression that I was a typical American woman. He went home and had an arranged marriage that didn't work. Very happy with his second wife (not arranged) and daughter and on a volunteer basis became active in a UN human rights organization.

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2 users have voted.

@Marie
I've mentored several. Indians had exposure to European (well British, culture) and Mexican culture derives heavily from Spanish (and surprise! German) culture.
I'm always honored when they bring non-work personal problems to me. I try to be worthy of their trust. I know they are really worried if they tell such personal things to that weird American.
Often, it's because their kids are becoming Americanized. Kids assimilate. They are very protean. A good Chinese friend, a fellow physicist (except he has a Phd, I think Texas A&M, somewhere in Texas), once told me that his daughter, then 14, would not date until she was 30 and then would marry another Chinese. He didn't believe when I told him that if he didn't have only part-Chinese grandkids, he would certainly have non-Chinese great-grandkids. But then he explained Chinese anthropology that holds that the Chinese are literally another species. The Denosovans give some credence to this theory. (shrugging) Being a mutt myself, having mixed descendants doesn't bother me at all. My DNA indicates 0.1% West African ancestry and I know i carry a Y-chromosome gene peculiar to West Africa. My wife's Scandinavian/North German ancestors are all we found in an extensive search of US records going back to the 1840's. But her DNA indicates 0.2% East Asian and 10% Irish ancestry. We encountered NO Irish names in our search, but in the tenth century Vikings dragged huge numbers of Irish slaves back to Norway. So we both surely have slave ancestors and non-white ancestors. So what? I bet lots of blue-bloods were really sired by the chauffeur, especially if the noble lady was a "beard". But Asians seem to have a particular thing about racial purity. The fate of Eurasian children left by US troops in Korea and Vietnam is a national disgrace. Even the Brits would raise these half-caste orphans to be colonial administrators for them and the French brought them freely to France. Only "melting pot" America pretends they don't exist.

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1 user has voted.

We are so screwed.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@UntimelyRippd
Post one little graph and get this in reply:

I am infuriated by the grotesque abuse of statistics by the pooh-poohers -- such as the profoundly stupid aggregate US mortality chart to which NHK linked elsewhere in this thread (posted on a website that has been dedicated since day one, for whatever bizarre ideological reasons, go downplaying the risks from this disease). What do you, the reader, take away from that chart? How closely did you examine it? Do you think it indicates that Covid-19 has been an insignificant blip in US mortality? Well let me smartsplain it for those of you whose IQ tops out at the 99.98%ile (which surprisingly turns out to be not quite high enough to overcome, via reasoned analysis, an emotional investment so enormous that it even defeats the owning mind's capacity for self-awareness):

If you're infuriated by simple statistics, then I suggest you might be missing out on that self awareness you claim to know so much about.

I don't recall making any claims about mortality one way or the other: just trying to get a handle on the true impact of COVID given apenultimate's rather strident concern for a small increase in overall deaths nationwide last week.

So sure, you can compare hot spot regions and claim that certain areas get hit harder than others, and I don't disagree. But apenultimate cited NATIONWIDE deaths, so I posted a chart comparing NATIONWIDE deaths for a different year to provide a bit of perspective on the overall impact. So shoot me.

In other words, although that chart was presented, both on its original site, and by NHK here, to advance an "anti-alarmist" agenda -- and please, don't insult us all with protests of a devotion to objective reason, your agenda is glowing -- it is evidence in favor of the opposition: that uncontrolled across the nation, Covid-19 would lift aggregate mortality by somewhere between 10% and 100% (i.e., double expectations), at least during its first year. Despite efforts to control it, it has already lifted 2020 mortality by about 5% above where it was trending, and it's just ramping up in TX, CA, FL, and AZ, which comprise about 30% of the population, and methinks a 30% demographically tilted to the age group most vulnerable.

So an anti-alarmist agenda is now a bad thing? Hysteria should be given free reign? It's your agenda that's glowing red hot pal, not mine.

And in furtherance of your agenda, I would suggest you might want to post a link once in a while to your statistical claims (that 10 - 100% claim is quite a corker) the next time you get on your smartsplaining high horse and start tilting at your own straw men.

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4 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@apenultimate

source

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3 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

Either A) You expanded the scale to include all deaths so that covid-19 seems insignificant. In which case you mean to say--eh, it's about the same rate of death as last year, so who really cares?!?

or B) You're showing the blue line was below the red line until covid-19 hit, and now it's trending above it, in which case you're saying--that sucks and we should do more!

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2 users have voted.
Lookout's picture

@apenultimate

currently, overall death rate isn't abnormal in the US.

You are correct that CDC data lags as does death rate, but here's the current data
excess deaths.jpg
The yellow line is average/expected death numbers. Currently we are trending lower than expected overall deaths. NHK had COVID. He is trying to look at data.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Of course that is just my reading of his post.

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5 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

enhydra lutris's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

California major metropolitan area here. For months now, whenever I have to go out, traffic is very light to minimal. I have just had this question, thanks to your graph, so haven't tried to grab data, but would expect traffic fatalities to be down. With so much shelter in place, I would also expect certain types of homicides to be down. Accordingly, I would expect our all-things-being-equal death rate to be down. I don't know if we are big enough to make a blip on your chart, or we we are at all typical as to traffic, bar-hopping and all, but maybe the perfect tracking is an indication that covid death incidence is masking declining deaths from non-covid causes. Just something to ponder, I'll try to find some actual data.

be well and have a good one.

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5 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@enhydra lutris

but you also need to take into account the myriad of problems associated with the lockdown itself.

We’ve already seen a steady rise in deaths by suicide over the past two decades and a new report by The Well Being Trust released last month found that 75,000 additional people could die from what they called “deaths of despair,” (which include suicide and substance use) because of Covid-19.

The Risk Factors For Covid-19 Suicides

The physical symptoms of the novel coronavirus have been well-reported for months, but it’s the handful of psychological and sociological factors that are just starting to ring alarm bells. The combination of physical distancing, economic stress, barriers to mental health treatment, pervasive national anxiety, and a spike in gun sales are creating what JAMA Psychiatry referred to as “a perfect storm” for suicide mortality.

“Suicide is likely to become a more pressing concern as the pandemic spreads and has longer-term effects on the general population, the economy, and vulnerable groups,” according to David Gunnell, professor of epidemiology at the University of Bristol and head of the Bristol Suicide and Self-harm Research Group, and his research team who recently published their findings in The Lancet Psychiatry.

Domestic abuse, alcoholism, gun sales, etc. are all on the rise. Not to mention the anxiety and despair from being out of work with no financial support or access to mental health care during all this.

There's a lot more to the health impacts than just the virus.

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3 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

enhydra lutris's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

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1 user has voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@apenultimate in our MSM to tell us any semblance of "truth" I would seriously question that. This is the same media that lied us into two wars, the same media that told us Russia got Trump elected, the same media that just came out with some uncorroborated "story" about Russia paying bounties to Afghans to kill American soldiers. Really, I could go on and on and on about just how many times we have been outright lied to, as could anyone else on this site and many one hell of a lot better than I am doing here, in order for PTB to push a narrative that gets them everything they want while Americans focus on battling each other over crumbs or utter bullshit.

You may not be relying completely on the MSM, (or Johns Hopkins, Bill Gates, Rockefeller Foundation, a corrupted CDC and WHO to boot, NIH, etc, etc.) but I see far too many around me who just believe whatever they are told by the same media that they know has lied to us repeatedly. So yes, I will continue to question anything that comes from a media that pushes fear and division to distract from the real thievery that goes on every day. Has any one in government or media dared to mention the 45K or so deaths due to simple lack of medical care without covid? How about that opioid epidemic that rages on, or the gun deaths of 30K or so per year? When is the last time the PTB gave one shit about American deaths? And what of the people who cannot survive another lockdown? Does anyone give a shit about them? Not if they're "right wingers" for damned sure, its simply a given now to shame "those people" for not complying with the latest hyperbole from the media. How about the fact that more people will die from poverty during lockdown than the damned disease? Hear anyone focus a bit more on that? I don't, but then again, I now fully ignore anything coming from the MSM.

Now all that said, I do not believe this thing is a hoax, so we can shut that down right now if my questioning the agenda behind this virus is taken to mean that. We already know Americans do not do nuance or detail, so questioning in this country is seen as a black and white argument when it is in fact no such thing. From where we sit why on earth would we not at the very least question? I guess questioning the PTB is only reserved for questions of war or maybe money, and partisan politics of course, but certainly not what they might use a virus to accomplish.

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7 users have voted.

Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur

Lookout's picture

@lizzyh7

MSM has lied so many times you can't believe them. Their other big trick is omission as you suggest...

Has any one in government or media dared to mention the 45K or so deaths due to simple lack of medical care without covid? How about that opioid epidemic that rages on, or the gun deaths of 30K or so per year? When is the last time the PTB gave one shit about American deaths? And what of the people who cannot survive another lockdown?

not to mention suicide-

Suicide is the nation's 10th-leading cause of death, with 14.2 deaths per 100,000 people, though that rate alone belies the scope of the problem. While thousands of people die by suicide each year, millions think about it. In 2017, 10.6 million American adults seriously thought about suicide, 3.2 million made a plan, and 1.4 million attempted it, according to the CDC.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/01/30/u-s-suicide-rate-r...

If that doesn't speak to the desperation folks are feeling I don't know what does.

Thanks for the misleading media reminder.

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

snoopydawg's picture

@lizzyh7

When is the last time the PTB gave one shit about American deaths?

In addition to the causes of deaths that you listed when’s the last time the media or anyone in congress talked about the numbers of veterans who kill themselves every damn day in this country? Or that 19 million children are food challenged? Or that 500,000 people here are living on the street? Over 100,000 people die every year from lack of health care and others because they can’t afford to use what they have because their deductibles are so f’cking high?

..... the PTB to push a narrative that gets them everything they want while Americans focus on battling each other over crumbs or utter bullshit.

We are seeing more people fighting with others from the opposite 'side' since Floyd George was murdered and people started protesting against the police. People have been killed by cars or seriously injured because someone else didn’t think they should be doing that. But what needs to happen is for both sides to come together and fight our real enemy which is our government who doesn’t give 2 shits if we live or die or how much misery we experience until we do..

How in the hell can we still not have n95 masks not only for the health care workers but for us too? Why are testing supplies still not available after 6 months and after Trump said he was ordering companies to make them?

My question is why is the infection rate still going up as much in cities that have made wearing masks mandatory? In Utah they say that it’s coming from people’s houses not from being outside in the parks or streets protesting. 60% comes from people’s homes from what I have read. And if we are serious about beating this into the ground why the hell is Disneyland opening in Florida this weekend? This is either serious or it’s not.

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"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

Lookout's picture

@snoopydawg

In addition to the causes of deaths when’s the last time the media or anyone in congress talked about the numbers of veterans who kill themselves every damn day in this country? Or that 19 million children are food challenged? Or that 500,000 people here are living on the street? Over 100,000 people die every year from lack of health care and others because they can’t afford to use what they have because their deductibles are so f’cking high?

Round and round we go.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

magiamma's picture

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Lookout's picture

@magiamma

I mean we're 4% of the world's population with 25% of the cases and death. We're number one!

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magiamma's picture

@Lookout

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enhydra lutris's picture

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

snoopydawg's picture

lol this is funny.

Back to reading the weekly round up.....

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8 users have voted.

"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

Lookout's picture

@snoopydawg

Thanks that was fun. Amazing how we can distort reality, heh?

Take care of yourself!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Lookout's picture

with two folks I enjoy,
Ivor Cummings and Aseem Malhotra
about 30 min

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Anja Geitz's picture

then I have during this crisis. Most of the time I can successfully block out what is happening. But it’s always there. The nightmarish virus with its probing tentacles searching for the next victim. No need to ask why my brain is on auto-pilot. It’s called survival. But it ain’t living.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Lookout's picture

@Anja Geitz

It no longer can be about government IMO. Now it is about community and support rather than seeing us as possible profit. And you have expressed support in your TJ community, and certainly here in this virtual arena you know you are supported.

We will emerge, though I expect we have a journey yet to evade this virus. I understand your auto-pilot mode. Happening with me too. Got my mask. got my gloves, come home and shower. Of course I only go out once or twice a week and you work a regular gig. Keep good heart! We are here.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Lookout

I’m actually writing to you from urgent care where I had to gingerly drive myself with a very uncomfortable urinary tract infection. So my perspective of life in general today is definitely coming from a place of need. Your kind words warmed my heart.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Lookout's picture

@Anja Geitz

sending healing thoughts your way.

I know it sounds weird..but hey we are what we are...but I think I can dream healing in my body. I know when I'm designing or creating I can focus my night thoughts on the project and come up with interesting options. I do the same imagining my body healing. Yeah, weird I know.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Lookout

I’m on the second round of antibiotics, the first round didn’t seem to work and just kept the infection at bay, but the discomfort for the last three days has made sleeping difficult.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Lookout's picture

@Anja Geitz

that is a common recommendation I've heard.

no matter....good healing!

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Lookout

I’m hoping I’m better by tomorrow. Thanks.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

ovals49's picture

@Anja Geitz
Vitamin C with Cranberry soft gel supplements, Nature’s Bounty brand. No antibiotics necessary, took supplements for about five days of gradual improvement, and gone! Was suggested by my daughter who is almost a NP. Was a bit skeptical, now I’m a believer.

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“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

Anja Geitz's picture

@ovals49

What’s an NP?

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

ovals49's picture

@Anja Geitz

aka “Almost a Doctor”

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“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
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Anja Geitz's picture

@ovals49

and she says they have the funniest and weirdest stories and boy do they know how to laugh at stuff.

When I had to have emergency surgery years ago and I was very frightened they were wonderful to me. After I finally came home, I sent the nurses who cared for me some homemade cookies with card telling them how much their kindness meant to me. But then, I’m the type of patient who rarely complains so I guess I was easier to be nice too. Lol.

You must be very proud of your daughter.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

enhydra lutris's picture

@Anja Geitz

go out and stock up on Duct Tape and Plastic Sheeting. Wink Mosking

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Anja Geitz's picture

@enhydra lutris

Who said that and what were the circumstances?

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

snoopydawg's picture

@Anja Geitz

were all the rage during Bush’s tenure as well as weekly color alert systems designed to ramp up fears during specific times. And of course there was the media dutifully posting them on 'national security grounds.'

Ring your memory some? Sorry to hear about your infection. I hope you feel better soon.

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5 users have voted.

"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

Anja Geitz's picture

@snoopydawg

Supposed to guard against?

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

snoopydawg's picture

@Anja Geitz

Maybe....but some type of biological attacks. I think. But it sounds right to me.

Smile

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3 users have voted.

"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

Anja Geitz's picture

@snoopydawg

Wow. That’s just....fucking idiotic.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

enhydra lutris's picture

@Anja Geitz

doofus. They wee constantly sayng that there s an immanent threat of terrorist attack, probably CBW, and that people should be ready to shelter in place by sealing up their house with plastic sheeting and duct tape. I was just sort of thinking that it would probably work against covid too, right?

BTW, so sorry to hear about the UT infection. Be sure to do a lot of live yogurt and pro-biotics once you're done with the antibiotics, 'cause they screw up your internal flora and fauna.

get well and have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Anja Geitz's picture

@enhydra lutris

Was appropriately ridiculed for the duct tape and plastic sheeting suggestion.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

enhydra lutris's picture

@Anja Geitz

be well and have a good one

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2 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris duct tape vendors saw their sales go through the roof.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@Marie

shortages.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Lookout's picture

@enhydra lutris

What a weird situation in which we find ourselves...this convergence of disease, economics, and ecosystem.

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magiamma's picture

@Lookout

An awakening to the longterm consequences of racism.

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Lookout's picture

@magiamma

As RA suggests this virus is causing us to awaken on many levels...racism among them as police choke people in our face.

I've been having new awakening seeing the signs along our road "Original Trail of Tears". Last week I wrote about the national heredity of genocide and slavery. I neglected to mention the Cherokee farmers often owned African slaves.

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gulfgal98's picture

I am going to point out a couple of things involving my home state, Florida. Yesterday, Florida recorded its highest number of confirmed cases for a single day with 15,299 cases! It is about 4,000 more cases than the previous single day high. Florida hit a record death rate five days ago, but we may see it rise in the future since deaths lag days to weeks behind new diagnoses.

My home county (Leon County) has also seen a significant increase in new cases since the beginning of the last week of June. I go to the state of Florida tracking website every day, so I have noted some trends. One significant trend is the drop in the median age of new cases, both statewide and especially in my home county. The median age statewide is 39, but in Leon County (Tallahassee), the median age is only 25. Nearly half of all cases in Leon County fall into the 15-24 year age group. The is one of the many reasons it is insane to push for the reopening of schools.

If the rest of the country is tracking in a similar direction as to age of diagnosed cases, that could explain why the death rate has remained fairly constant despite the rise in new cases because more younger people are being diagnosed with the virus and have a better chance of surviving it.

One last thing. I have heard (anecdotally) that getting test results is taking longer now in Florida due to the labs not being able to keep up with the sheer volume of tests being conducted. We are not even close to spiking on the first wave in this country and no one makes me angrier than the anti maskers. While my mask offers a small amount of protection to me, it offers a great amount of protection to those around me. I see every anti-masker as being someone who does not care about the welfare of those he or she comes in contact with.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Lookout's picture

@gulfgal98

death rates are not spiking (yet) is in part because younger folks are the ones getting sick. Also because the treatments are improving.

This whole thing reminds me of a brush fire spreading through the woods. Some areas are charred (think Paradise and Hecate), others escape with the randomness of fire.

I heard one fellow say we're in the 2nd inning of a long game.

Thanks for coming by!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

I had same confusion trying to make sense of what "officials" were stating. Luckily my company sent everybody to work at home as the company has a very good IT infrastructure to make it happen. So far no layoffs as people are producing releases, helping customers, etc.

I am in the very highest risk groups so my approach is to be as conservative as I can wearing both masks and gloves and other tactics as home deliveries of essentials, limiting my travels only to get the most essentials of essentials.

MoonOfAlabama had an article called "The U.S. Has Surrendered To The Pandemic. Protect Yourself." Which has pretty much proven to be true. I think this directly implicates both medical people and lawmakers like Pelosi who refused to get money for state and local governments causing them to open early to generate tax revenues to keep functioning.

After this, I simply do not trust anything I read, see, or hear from any and all government officials and associated scientists.

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Lookout's picture

@MrWebster

I simply do not trust anything I read, see, or hear from any and all government officials and associated scientists.

And that makes the situation so confusing. Just spoke with a niece who works at UAB hospital. She confers misinformation is rampant and honest coverage is essentially nonexistent.

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travelerxxx's picture

Yesterday (Saturday, 7/11), I had to run from my home in northern Harris county (Houston area) to Galveston. A friend had several seizures, somehow managed to call 911, and was taken to the massive University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) hospital there. They were releasing him and he had no way to get back to the boat he lives on. So down to Galveston I went.

I worked on the island for years, but I'm pretty unfamiliar with the eastern end of Galveston. Due to that, I came onto the island on the west end, and ran down the main drag - Seawall Blvd - all the way to UTMB. It's about a five mile run, right next to the beaches. And those beaches were packed. People everywhere.

I was taking note of the number of folks with masks. My report is not good. Let's put it this way - in five miles of driving next to the beach, I didn't need all my fingers to count all those wearing masks. Seriously. I drove at least four miles before I saw anyone with a mask. Finally I saw a young couple with their two children walking. All of them had masks. I saw a smattering of others as I approached the end of the island and my destination of UTMB.

How many people did I see? I have no count, but it had to be thousands. I would guess that 80% of them were under 40 years of age. Nearly all these folks were from somewhere other than Galveston, but likely Texas. They'll drag anything they've picked up home. Wonderful.

On the other hand, they all got a nice tan ...or maybe a sunburn, judging from some I saw.

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Lookout's picture

@travelerxxx

IMO of stupidity. I've not been going out much, but in the last few weeks I have ventured into our local outdoor trade day. At first there were very few masks, then it was about half, now less than that as though masks have become a pro or anti Trump symbol. How stupid can you get that a virus recognizes political preference?

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Sonoma County bars, indoor dining and museums ordered to close Monday

I have a nice cloth mask my neighbor sewed custom for me, she let me pick the pattern and everything. I wear it every time I go out, but not when I am walking on the street, which is my only form of transportation. Two low carbon feet.

I think someone yelled at me from their porch today "are you wearing a mask?!" but I couldn't pause to check because I was carrying a big sack of compost from the nursery, and it waa 97F already, and wtf?. It did hit 104F on the deck, oy. I am trying to grow tomatoes down in the dirt patch... LOL.

Thanks again for the reminder about Quercetin, I am taking all the other supplements already plus lots of vitamin Bs that are in nutritional yeast. Vitamin Bs make me feel happier, it seems. I am a regular pill popper now, every day.

The nooz drives me crazy, I had to quit drinking from the fire hose back in March, so I asked my neighbor what she watched, just give me one channel, and it was Peak Prosperity so that is pretty much all I listen to now. Laughed out loud the first time I watched and it ends... "plant a garden". right on

Oxheart tomatoes, that is what I am trying to grow almost a year since you tried to mail me a box, it's too hot down there now I think. Maybe next year LOL. This morning I picked a nice harvest of yardlong beans, they are great. Cheers Lookout.

peace and love

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Lookout's picture

@eyo

from last year with your name on them. Should be no problem mailing. So tomatoes failed but taters have to succeed. What could go wrong (oh let me count the ways). Will try to mail this week. Let me know if we have success.

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@Lookout thanks a lot! If they make it I might fry one in honor of today's open thread. cheers

It is not just the plants with heat stress, I woke up in the night with a pounding headache and it was still 86F, couldn't find my balance just going to the fridge for some cold water. LOL I strained my neck carrying that bag yesterday, and now I have a big pain, a big pain in the neck! Sheesh and gawdess bless the symbolism. Thank you.

My head feels fine now except for the crazy. Lots of water, and then coffee the blessed bean, that is what revived me. Plus frop. I carried about fifteen gallons of water down to little eden, picked more yardlongs (ding!), and there are fresh sunflower starts. I wish I could type more but that's enough for now. Sending good thoughts out to all. Stay cool.

peace and love

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