If Biden fails, Bernie will be president
Everyone is talking about Elizabeth Warren and when/if she will pass Joe Biden.
Bernie Sanders has been almost forgotten.
If you look at the polls, then Bernie will clean Warren's clock if Biden's campaign collapses.
So far Warren has benefited from the collapse of Harris' campaign, because Warren is the top second choice of both Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg supporters.
Now look at who is the second choice of Biden supporters.
It's not even close. If Biden fails, Bernie will be the overwhelming beneficiary. Not Warren.
And Biden's pool of voters is bigger than Harris' and Warren's combined. So if Biden flounders, and most people think he will, Sanders' numbers will shoot through the roof like a rocket!
Those two surveys were from May. The one in February found the exact same thing, so there is a consistent pattern.
The other thing that needs to be pointed out is that because of California moving up its primary, Super Tuesday (March 3) will probably be the effective ending of the primary season.
So who does good in the early states makes a huge difference.
Here's the thing: Even without Biden's supporters, Bernie is ahead of Warren in almost ALL of the early states.
So forget the national polls. If Biden flounders as expected, then by March 4th the pundits will be asking if Bernie will pick Warren as his running mate, while most of the candidates drop out of the race.
In order:
Comments
I can't wait
until the present iteration of the Democratic (sic) Party is in the rearview mirror.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
But Warren has the most selfies
Then again. . .
Wait, wait. Yo gotta see this. ROTFL
May be some little girl could start a
Sundays for Bernie's Future movement to support a Tulsi/Sanders/Tulsi ticket.
This little guy seemed to be very determined to support Bernie in his young age.
Now he has grown up to be a famous banker and he still is supporting Bernie. Can't you see it?
So where is the Greta-boy? /snarky midnight silliness.
https://www.euronews.com/live
This looks good but
it would be interesting to see how the numbers shake out now that Harris has faded and Warren has ascended over the past couple of weeks. If the Spring trends have held, then 2020 could be very exciting indeed.
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
Warren hasn't ascended as much
as the MSM is making it out to be. They just want to minimize Bernie as much as possible.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Meme
The 359 DNC members will decide, as usual.
Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.
These DNC party members are not bound to follow the wishes of the party rank and file, as demonstrated by the stunning lack of discussion on the Climate Crisis we face:
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
"We don't have to provide a fair competition
or competition at all. We're a private club."
Which organization used this legal defense? The NFL or the DNC?
Oh, wait. It was both.
The 359 DNC members will decide, as usual.
Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
sounds familiar
If the DNC has total control
then why have they allowed Sanders to get this far?
If they've got this all fine-tuned then shouldn't they have crushed Sanders before now?
Or is this some sort of 11th dimensional chess I keep hearing about?
It's because of the
following that Bernie acquired in 2016 and still maintains. They're doing everything in their power to minimize him and get him off the stage, but THE PEOPLE won't have it. That's my take, anyway.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Well then, I surely hope "the people"
. . . will show up en masse to vote in the primaries and cough up $27 now and then to Bernie's campaign. Phone banking, canvassing, etc. ain't peanuts either.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPR-HyGj2d0]
Also, they want those people to stay involved
so that they can convince them to give their support to Warren (or Kamala, except that that plan has had to be scrapped. Whoops.)
If Bernie supporters go to Warren they can bolster her credibility as a progressive, or a liberal, or a kind centrist, or whatever the hell she's supposed to be.
Also, just keeping as many people as possible involved bolsters the credibility of the stupid game they're playing.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Credibility is not necessary
If 95% of the population didn't vote, the political and media establishment would still go about business like the elections were legit. It happens in other countries all the time.
So just abstaining doesn't do any good.
I never said it did.
Or, rather, the only "good" it does is to keep me from being a puppet.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Folks can drop out of the game at *the right time*
. . . and then make their disgust known.
For me, the time to make that decision will be Super Tuesday on March 3rd. Or maybe later. Or maybe not at all if Bernie pulls off a miracle and gets the nomination and wins the presidency. Stranger things have happened. And that's an understatement given Trump just three short years ago.
I realize more than a few folks made that decision in 2016 but I really believe this time around TPTB overthought themselves and are now shooting each other in a crossfire making it possible for Bernie to squeak through.
If people believe in the system,
of course they will vote.
I don't have a problem with their voting. That's their business. Their voting rights have no impact on my opinion of American elections, however.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
It's what we got
I can't even imagine how its going away anytime soon.
Imminent collapse? I don't see it. Funny how the gubmint buys into socialism for the rich when it's needed to sustain the economy.
I don't see "the system" going away or changing very much for a very long time if Bernie doesn't win the nomination. I figure he's a chance of our lifetimes that won't come again. I'm willing to make a Pascal's wager. What's to lose?
If it looks like Bernie can't pull it off come Super Tuesday, so it goes. Que sera, sera.
Because he has, once again,
agreed to support and endorse the Democratic Party nominee, whoever it may be and however that choice is made. Bernie’s endorsement brings millions of reliable voters in and millions of Bernie dollars passing through Act Blue, which may, once again, be redirected as needed.
If there is a brokered convention, I would expect the previous Democratic candidate, who garnered over 5 million votes more than Obama did in ‘08, will only be too happy to help out the Party with a Trump grudge match, if asked.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
Strange
Does anyone else think that it's pretty weird that the people that now support Biden would choose someone at the opposite end of the spectrum as their second choice? What goes on in the minds of these people?
All I want is the truth. Just give me some truth. John Lennon
Biden and Bernie are both "Not Hillary"
That's enough for a lot of people. MSM will never admit how widely and deeply Hillary was and is still loathed - from both ends and even parts of the middle of the political spectrum.
And don't forget that Biden's base has the largest number and percentage of AAs by a considerable margin and they are largely in an older demographic. Many see Biden as a safe bet and are adversely affected by the negative propaganda against Bernie but somehow and rightly so still like him enough to make him their backup choice.
Biden, according to MSNBC's Joy Ann Reid (certainly not my favorite talking head corporate propagandist), is looked upon by AAs as a racist but not all that bad a racist and that's about the best they can expect. And Obama obviously liked him enough to pick and stick with him as VP.
But how long will Biden be able to escape widespread criticism regarding his less than stellar record and his ongoing "gaffes" regarding the Black community? It doesn't look like his "white man's burden"-like record player comments have yet impacted too much on his poll numbers. But then again, sometimes it takes time to percolate and we're still 5-6 months until things really get heated up.
BTW, in case folks haven't yet come across the disgustingly vile BS the WFP leadership is throwing at Berners, please be advised they now casting aspersions upon us as being full fledged white terrorists. Same ol' shit over and over again without any proof.
They have minds?
Like AA people rejecting the guy who marched with MLK for the "co-President" who rolled back the advances hard-won in the 60's.
Others have explained it here, but I still think it was "anybody but the Jew".
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Yeah, they do have minds.
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
"They" did not refer to AA voters but rather biden voters
reference to AA voters was just a simile.
Thought I needed to clarify that.
My wife always speaks in pronouns and I haven't the slightest idea who or what she is referring to.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
And it works
Social-economic-educational factors clearly play a major role with Biden and Bernie backers. Biden and Bernie both get a lot of non-college support, POC and working class. They can be considered the RFK candidates. The major differences in their bases are re age: Biden gets the older landline voters, while Sanders gets the under-40 group.
Warren, the former Harvard prof, currently has a narrower Gene McCarthy base -- white educated middle class. When you look at the second choice for her supporters, from an ideological perspective it makes sense -- they choose Bernie.
I would agree that Bernie is in a slightly better position than Warren to pick up disaffected Biden voters once his deteriorating mental state is exposed. But Warren is enjoying increasingly favorable MSM coverage, and this could influence especially older Biden backers (the group spending more time with traditional media and not online chat boards) to make the switch to her. Warren, unlike Gene McCarthy of yesteryear, is also interested in expanding her base, and has a solid campaign team to achieve this. I would not underestimate her although I give Bernie a marginally better chance at getting the nom.
That makes sense
In 2016 I talked with Trump supporters that I met in various public places. I would talk to them of Bernie and they would say "Oh, he's good too!" meaning, to me, that they hated the current system and wanted change, any change. Trump is still running as a change candidate. Trump will beat Biden in a walk. He stands a good chance of beating Bernie too. The battle is in the purple states where people may feel that Trump isn't as bad as they feared or that Trump is at least the Devil they know. And the MSM will be solidly Trump. MSNBC and CNN may not be overtly Trump but they will report and magnify any and all Sanders campaign mistakes.
They are owned by the 1% and they can keep the anti-Trump viewing base by portraying Bernie as worse. just like "BERNIE SANDERS WANTS TO TAKE AWAY YOUR HEALTH INSURANCE".
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Warren and the WFP
It seems that if Warren is trying to expand her base, she's going about it the wrong way. And it seems the Brockbots are pushing her candidacy (also in the wrong way). But she will be judged by the company she keeps.
First, there are some very alarming indications that there were some big money donations made to the WFP prior to their endorsement of Warren including an individual donation of close to $200,000: https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/contrib_all.php?cmte=Working...
Then there are questions about her daughter's relationship with the WFP:
And then it now seems that some of the tweets being offered up as evidence of white terror came from an AA and another from a Navajo:
Warren has been
latest nationwide surveys, going from single digits support to low double figures. Still behind Biden and Sanders, but improving.
quietly picking up support among AAs according toBut if she does very well in the first two contests with overwhelmingly white populations, IA and NH, then many in heavily AA South Carolina would be favorably inclined to her, wanting to back a winner.
And importantly she leads the other candidates among Latino voters, the largest minority voting group.
Sorry, not familiar with some of the other things you bring up, but I suspect most of that -- the WFP endorsement, twitter skirmishes, and whatever D Brock is up to -- is just too insider baseball and won't be a factor for most folks.
You're basing too much on that NBC-WSJ poll
Out of all the polls on RCP, that's probably the most skewed in Warren's favor by far.
So she's picked up some Black support after Tulsi destroyed Kamala that's within the margin of error. Meh.
Hispanics? I don't believe for one second that she leads among Hispanics:
Morning Consult had Bernie way ahead of other candidates in the spring with 33% compared to 7% for Warren:
https://theintercept.com/2019/04/06/bernie-sanders-latino-hispanic-voters/
But hey, go figure. NBC and WSJ.
The people who got a bump immediately post-Kamala
were Bernie and Booker. That made sense to me. Once Kamala was exposed
a lot of black people didn't want to support her anymore.
Those that cared the most about policy and history went to Bernie.
Those that cared the most about identity politics went to Booker.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
WARren's gotten a bump albeit not a surge
And it didn't come from Bernie who has been holding his own and inching up. I don't see anybody surging or plummeting at this point although that's the drama MSM and their spinmeisters like to concoct.
And I think Harris had more than a few white Hillary supporters at first who are now breaking towards WARren.
Then too I've noticed more and more frequent MSM attacks on WARren that presumably come from the Obama/Biden camp, and certainly not from Bernie. Here are a few that I've saved but I've come across more:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/19/delivering-alpha-elizabeth-warren-presid...
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/12/warren-obama-2020-228068
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-and-warren-had-a-long-hist...
this is OT, but i'd found a slower version of this at
the times of israel, iirc. hope you find it of enough interest not to be vexed that i've brought it.
‘Here's the Net Worth of Every 2020 Presidential Candidate’, from forbes via newsmax.com
If
If being the most important part. I don't see the DNC allowing Biden to fail. Short of a medical incident that leaves him incapacitated, Biden will be rammed down our throats. We'll be told to hold our nose and vote for him. Just like in 2016.
Yeah I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
Inspiring post!
Please re-post this to wayoftheBern.
Or,may I do that for you?
NYCVG
Go for it
What if Biden, as he's dropping out, endorses Warren?
How many clueless voters would fall in line?
I suppose it would depend
on exactly how Biden "drops out". He has money and establishment support, so I don't see him withdrawing from the campaign until after Super Tuesday. I'm expecting his support to decline, and for him to go through the first few primaries winning few if any delegates. After Super Tuesday it would be obvious that he isn't going to make it, even with super delegate support.
One scenario is for Warren (currently enjoying a surge) to overtake Biden in polling. That brings his electability into question and some of his support would bleed out -- to Sanders if the second choice polling is to be believed. That transitions from a three-way race to a two-way race, with Biden perhaps falling below the 15 percent threshold to get delegates.
By the time Biden formally withdraws, his endorsement may not be worth much.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Oh no.... you've got this all wrong.
Bernie shook up some of his staffing in New England states, which is a SURE sign that he is FAILING, FLAILING, ready to BERN OUT.... haven't you read the headlines???
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Is Bernie's campaign collapsing AGAIN!?!
His campaign crashes and burns every few weeks (according to the media).
Yes... total disaster every 5 minutes!
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Yes, just like
how the walls keep closing in on Trump.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Only 10,000 people attended his Denver rally.
That was such a SAD day!
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Found
Mary Bennett
For Bernie's VP choice
might I suggest:
https://www.governor.state.nm.us/
Mary Bennett
America's gain but NM's loss
The only thing though
The same DNC and state party officials who cheated Bernie in 2016 are still in place. Bernie may begin the convention with the best popular vote total, yet still losing the nomination. Looks to me like Warren is sorta becoming Hilly/Obama 2.0.
Washpost "fact checking"
useless
Now that is some semantic contortions.
If you were debating someone IRL
and they split-hairs like that, wouldn't you just laugh at them?
You know someone is losing a debate, or is simply dishonest, when they go to such lengths.
Billionaires
have less money in their pockets than the so-called "poor". They create jobs by hiring people to carry their money for them. Billionaires are the real victims here!
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Remember when Warren voted for Ben f'cking Carson?
She defends her vote for him.
"He's wasn't the candidate I wanted, but..."
Very sad Liz!
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.