If Biden fails, Bernie will be president

Everyone is talking about Elizabeth Warren and when/if she will pass Joe Biden.
Bernie Sanders has been almost forgotten.

If you look at the polls, then Bernie will clean Warren's clock if Biden's campaign collapses.
So far Warren has benefited from the collapse of Harris' campaign, because Warren is the top second choice of both Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg supporters.

Now look at who is the second choice of Biden supporters.

biden-second-choices.jpgmc-biden-second-choice.jpg

It's not even close. If Biden fails, Bernie will be the overwhelming beneficiary. Not Warren.
And Biden's pool of voters is bigger than Harris' and Warren's combined. So if Biden flounders, and most people think he will, Sanders' numbers will shoot through the roof like a rocket!
Those two surveys were from May. The one in February found the exact same thing, so there is a consistent pattern.

democratic_candidate_migration.png

The other thing that needs to be pointed out is that because of California moving up its primary, Super Tuesday (March 3) will probably be the effective ending of the primary season.
So who does good in the early states makes a huge difference.

Here's the thing: Even without Biden's supporters, Bernie is ahead of Warren in almost ALL of the early states.
So forget the national polls. If Biden flounders as expected, then by March 4th the pundits will be asking if Bernie will pick Warren as his running mate, while most of the candidates drop out of the race.

In order:

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Centaurea's picture

until the present iteration of the Democratic (sic) Party is in the rearview mirror.

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37 users have voted.

"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Wally's picture

@Centaurea

Then again. . .

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29 users have voted.

@Wally

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1 user has voted.
mimi's picture

@Wally
Sundays for Bernie's Future movement to support a Tulsi/Sanders/Tulsi ticket.
This little guy seemed to be very determined to support Bernie in his young age.
images Babies for Sanders.jpg
Now he has grown up to be a famous banker and he still is supporting Bernie. Can't you see it?
life-advice-from-kids-main-1488906848.jpg

So where is the Greta-boy? /snarky midnight silliness.

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2 users have voted.

Ich schreibe was mir paßt - in memory of Steve Biko

it would be interesting to see how the numbers shake out now that Harris has faded and Warren has ascended over the past couple of weeks. If the Spring trends have held, then 2020 could be very exciting indeed.

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8 users have voted.
Raggedy Ann's picture

@laurel
as the MSM is making it out to be. They just want to minimize Bernie as much as possible.

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20 users have voted.

“It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong.”

-- Voltaire

@Raggedy Ann

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9 users have voted.
ovals49's picture

Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.

These DNC party members are not bound to follow the wishes of the party rank and file, as demonstrated by the stunning lack of discussion on the Climate Crisis we face:

From readsludge.com:
Just last month, DNC members voted 222-137 against allowing a presidential debate focused on the issue of the climate crisis. The roll call for that vote still has not been released, and many DNC members are known to be lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry.
After the contested 2016 Democratic Primary, where it was revealed that the DNC was funneling money for the Hillary Clinton campaign, a series of DNC meetings sought to add greater transparency to the rules and nomination process. But many of these accountability reforms are currently in flux, and there's a possibility the 2020 convention will be "brokered"—that is, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates on the first ballot, superdelegates (including scores of lobbyists) may determine the winner on the second ballot.

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33 users have voted.

“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” Albert Einstein

“And an uncomfortable truth is always superior to a comfortable fantasy.” Caitlin Johnstone

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@ovals49

or competition at all. We're a private club."

Which organization used this legal defense? The NFL or the DNC?

Oh, wait. It was both.

The 359 DNC members will decide, as usual.
Regardless of whether Bernie has the most support among Democratic voters or the general population come convention time, the official nominee will be whoever they prefer. They will have complete control of a brokered convention.

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25 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

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2 users have voted.

@ovals49
then why have they allowed Sanders to get this far?
If they've got this all fine-tuned then shouldn't they have crushed Sanders before now?

Or is this some sort of 11th dimensional chess I keep hearing about?

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10 users have voted.
Raggedy Ann's picture

@gjohnsit
following that Bernie acquired in 2016 and still maintains. They're doing everything in their power to minimize him and get him off the stage, but THE PEOPLE won't have it. That's my take, anyway. Pleasantry

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15 users have voted.

“It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong.”

-- Voltaire

Wally's picture

@Raggedy Ann

. . . will show up en masse to vote in the primaries and cough up $27 now and then to Bernie's campaign. Phone banking, canvassing, etc. ain't peanuts either.

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8 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Raggedy Ann

so that they can convince them to give their support to Warren (or Kamala, except that that plan has had to be scrapped. Whoops.)

If Bernie supporters go to Warren they can bolster her credibility as a progressive, or a liberal, or a kind centrist, or whatever the hell she's supposed to be.

Also, just keeping as many people as possible involved bolsters the credibility of the stupid game they're playing.

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11 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
If 95% of the population didn't vote, the political and media establishment would still go about business like the elections were legit. It happens in other countries all the time.

So just abstaining doesn't do any good.

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6 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@gjohnsit

Or, rather, the only "good" it does is to keep me from being a puppet.

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2 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

. . . and then make their disgust known.

For me, the time to make that decision will be Super Tuesday on March 3rd. Or maybe later. Or maybe not at all if Bernie pulls off a miracle and gets the nomination and wins the presidency. Stranger things have happened. And that's an understatement given Trump just three short years ago.

I realize more than a few folks made that decision in 2016 but I really believe this time around TPTB overthought themselves and are now shooting each other in a crossfire making it possible for Bernie to squeak through.

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6 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Wally

of course they will vote.

I don't have a problem with their voting. That's their business. Their voting rights have no impact on my opinion of American elections, however.

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0 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

I can't even imagine how its going away anytime soon.

Imminent collapse? I don't see it. Funny how the gubmint buys into socialism for the rich when it's needed to sustain the economy.

I don't see "the system" going away or changing very much for a very long time if Bernie doesn't win the nomination. I figure he's a chance of our lifetimes that won't come again. I'm willing to make a Pascal's wager. What's to lose?

If it looks like Bernie can't pull it off come Super Tuesday, so it goes. Que sera, sera.

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3 users have voted.
ovals49's picture

@gjohnsit
agreed to support and endorse the Democratic Party nominee, whoever it may be and however that choice is made. Bernie’s endorsement brings millions of reliable voters in and millions of Bernie dollars passing through Act Blue, which may, once again, be redirected as needed.

If there is a brokered convention, I would expect the previous Democratic candidate, who garnered over 5 million votes more than Obama did in ‘08, will only be too happy to help out the Party with a Trump grudge match, if asked.

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9 users have voted.

“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” Albert Einstein

“And an uncomfortable truth is always superior to a comfortable fantasy.” Caitlin Johnstone

burnt out's picture

Does anyone else think that it's pretty weird that the people that now support Biden would choose someone at the opposite end of the spectrum as their second choice? What goes on in the minds of these people?

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30 users have voted.

All I want is the truth. Just give me some truth. John Lennon

Wally's picture

@burnt out

That's enough for a lot of people. MSM will never admit how widely and deeply Hillary was and is still loathed - from both ends and even parts of the middle of the political spectrum.

And don't forget that Biden's base has the largest number and percentage of AAs by a considerable margin and they are largely in an older demographic. Many see Biden as a safe bet and are adversely affected by the negative propaganda against Bernie but somehow and rightly so still like him enough to make him their backup choice.

Biden, according to MSNBC's Joy Ann Reid (certainly not my favorite talking head corporate propagandist), is looked upon by AAs as a racist but not all that bad a racist and that's about the best they can expect. And Obama obviously liked him enough to pick and stick with him as VP.

But how long will Biden be able to escape widespread criticism regarding his less than stellar record and his ongoing "gaffes" regarding the Black community? It doesn't look like his "white man's burden"-like record player comments have yet impacted too much on his poll numbers. But then again, sometimes it takes time to percolate and we're still 5-6 months until things really get heated up.

BTW, in case folks haven't yet come across the disgustingly vile BS the WFP leadership is throwing at Berners, please be advised they now casting aspersions upon us as being full fledged white terrorists. Same ol' shit over and over again without any proof.

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17 users have voted.

@burnt out
Like AA people rejecting the guy who marched with MLK for the "co-President" who rolled back the advances hard-won in the 60's.

Others have explained it here, but I still think it was "anybody but the Jew".

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7 users have voted.

@The Voice In the Wilderness And I have read before and tend to believe it as well that most black voters know good and damned well nothing changes for them by voting, they've seen this movie their entire lives. So while those of us out here who hope for change may vote accordingly, there is a large base of people, obviously not only AA either, who see that it really does not matter which idiot they choose, nothing substantial will change anyway. It's the reason many people, again not only AA, don't even bother to vote. Sadly, most of the time they're spot on there, if not all of the time...

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3 users have voted.

@lizzyh7
reference to AA voters was just a simile.
Thought I needed to clarify that.
My wife always speaks in pronouns and I haven't the slightest idea who or what she is referring to.

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1 user has voted.

@burnt out the other way too -- the leading second choice of those who prefer Sanders is Biden. So obviously we're seeing something more than ideology at play. Ideology is very important to most folks here and on a few active leftish boards, but not with many of the Great Unwashed out there who aren't quite the political junkies many of us are.

Social-economic-educational factors clearly play a major role with Biden and Bernie backers. Biden and Bernie both get a lot of non-college support, POC and working class. They can be considered the RFK candidates. The major differences in their bases are re age: Biden gets the older landline voters, while Sanders gets the under-40 group.

Warren, the former Harvard prof, currently has a narrower Gene McCarthy base -- white educated middle class. When you look at the second choice for her supporters, from an ideological perspective it makes sense -- they choose Bernie.

I would agree that Bernie is in a slightly better position than Warren to pick up disaffected Biden voters once his deteriorating mental state is exposed. But Warren is enjoying increasingly favorable MSM coverage, and this could influence especially older Biden backers (the group spending more time with traditional media and not online chat boards) to make the switch to her. Warren, unlike Gene McCarthy of yesteryear, is also interested in expanding her base, and has a solid campaign team to achieve this. I would not underestimate her although I give Bernie a marginally better chance at getting the nom.

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15 users have voted.

@wokkamile
In 2016 I talked with Trump supporters that I met in various public places. I would talk to them of Bernie and they would say "Oh, he's good too!" meaning, to me, that they hated the current system and wanted change, any change. Trump is still running as a change candidate. Trump will beat Biden in a walk. He stands a good chance of beating Bernie too. The battle is in the purple states where people may feel that Trump isn't as bad as they feared or that Trump is at least the Devil they know. And the MSM will be solidly Trump. MSNBC and CNN may not be overtly Trump but they will report and magnify any and all Sanders campaign mistakes.
They are owned by the 1% and they can keep the anti-Trump viewing base by portraying Bernie as worse. just like "BERNIE SANDERS WANTS TO TAKE AWAY YOUR HEALTH INSURANCE".

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17 users have voted.
Wally's picture

@wokkamile

It seems that if Warren is trying to expand her base, she's going about it the wrong way. And it seems the Brockbots are pushing her candidacy (also in the wrong way). But she will be judged by the company she keeps.

First, there are some very alarming indications that there were some big money donations made to the WFP prior to their endorsement of Warren including an individual donation of close to $200,000: https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/contrib_all.php?cmte=Working...

Then there are questions about her daughter's relationship with the WFP:

And then it now seems that some of the tweets being offered up as evidence of white terror came from an AA and another from a Navajo:

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10 users have voted.

@Wally @Wally quietly picking up support among AAs according to latest nationwide surveys, going from single digits support to low double figures. Still behind Biden and Sanders, but improving.

But if she does very well in the first two contests with overwhelmingly white populations, IA and NH, then many in heavily AA South Carolina would be favorably inclined to her, wanting to back a winner.

And importantly she leads the other candidates among Latino voters, the largest minority voting group.

Sorry, not familiar with some of the other things you bring up, but I suspect most of that -- the WFP endorsement, twitter skirmishes, and whatever D Brock is up to -- is just too insider baseball and won't be a factor for most folks.

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3 users have voted.
Wally's picture

@wokkamile

Out of all the polls on RCP, that's probably the most skewed in Warren's favor by far.

So she's picked up some Black support after Tulsi destroyed Kamala that's within the margin of error. Meh.

Hispanics? I don't believe for one second that she leads among Hispanics:

Morning Consult had Bernie way ahead of other candidates in the spring with 33% compared to 7% for Warren:

https://theintercept.com/2019/04/06/bernie-sanders-latino-hispanic-voters/

But hey, go figure. NBC and WSJ.

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10 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Wally

were Bernie and Booker. That made sense to me. Once Kamala was exposed

a lot of black people didn't want to support her anymore.

Those that cared the most about policy and history went to Bernie.

Those that cared the most about identity politics went to Booker.

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6 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

And it didn't come from Bernie who has been holding his own and inching up. I don't see anybody surging or plummeting at this point although that's the drama MSM and their spinmeisters like to concoct.

And I think Harris had more than a few white Hillary supporters at first who are now breaking towards WARren.

Then too I've noticed more and more frequent MSM attacks on WARren that presumably come from the Obama/Biden camp, and certainly not from Bernie. Here are a few that I've saved but I've come across more:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/19/delivering-alpha-elizabeth-warren-presid...

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/12/warren-obama-2020-228068

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-and-warren-had-a-long-hist...

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3 users have voted.
wendy davis's picture

the times of israel, iirc. hope you find it of enough interest not to be vexed that i've brought it.

Here's the Net Worth of Every 2020 Presidential Candidate’, from forbes via newsmax.com

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5 users have voted.

If being the most important part. I don't see the DNC allowing Biden to fail. Short of a medical incident that leaves him incapacitated, Biden will be rammed down our throats. We'll be told to hold our nose and vote for him. Just like in 2016.

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11 users have voted.

@crbngville I’m picturing a marionette “Weekend at Biden’s” situation if things get that bad.

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9 users have voted.

Please re-post this to wayoftheBern.

Or,may I do that for you?

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9 users have voted.

NYCVG

@NYCVG

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2 users have voted.

How many clueless voters would fall in line?

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11 users have voted.
WoodsDweller's picture

@tle
on exactly how Biden "drops out". He has money and establishment support, so I don't see him withdrawing from the campaign until after Super Tuesday. I'm expecting his support to decline, and for him to go through the first few primaries winning few if any delegates. After Super Tuesday it would be obvious that he isn't going to make it, even with super delegate support.
One scenario is for Warren (currently enjoying a surge) to overtake Biden in polling. That brings his electability into question and some of his support would bleed out -- to Sanders if the second choice polling is to be believed. That transitions from a three-way race to a two-way race, with Biden perhaps falling below the 15 percent threshold to get delegates.
By the time Biden formally withdraws, his endorsement may not be worth much.

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11 users have voted.

"I cannot ignore reality, but I can embrace beauty." -- magiamma

Bernie shook up some of his staffing in New England states, which is a SURE sign that he is FAILING, FLAILING, ready to BERN OUT.... haven't you read the headlines???

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12 users have voted.

"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

@Fishtroller 02
His campaign crashes and burns every few weeks (according to the media).

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14 users have voted.

@gjohnsit

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10 users have voted.

"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@gjohnsit

how the walls keep closing in on Trump.

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6 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Fishtroller 02 Collapsing for sure.

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10 users have voted.

@MrWebster

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4 users have voted.

"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

@Fishtroller 02 the DNC moles did he? No wonder MSM is squawking.

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6 users have voted.

Nastarana

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Nastarana

@Nastarana Maybe, but she's getting a lot of good things done here so it would definitely be NM's loss.

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5 users have voted.

The same DNC and state party officials who cheated Bernie in 2016 are still in place. Bernie may begin the convention with the best popular vote total, yet still losing the nomination. Looks to me like Warren is sorta becoming Hilly/Obama 2.0.

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7 users have voted.

useless

The Washington Post (owned by the world’s richest person, Jeff Bezos), for example, claimed that Sanders’s assertion that millions of US residents were working multiple jobs was “misleading” because it was only eight million people, which represented a minority of the workforce, and that many of those extra jobs were part-time. It also gave his statement that six people (one of whom is Bezos) have as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population ‘three Pinocchios’ – the designation just below the most egregious lie. This was because, they argued, billionaires’ wealth is tied up in stocks, not money itself, and that most people own essentially nothing. For them, this apparently disproved the Vermont senator’s well-sourced claim.

The Post also attacked the idea that Sanders is supported by ordinary people in an article titled Bernie Sanders Keeps Saying His Average Donation is $27, but His Own Numbers Contradict That. What was the contradiction it found? That the average donation was actually $27.89, not $27.

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9 users have voted.

@gjohnsit That takes talent.

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6 users have voted.

@MrWebster
and they split-hairs like that, wouldn't you just laugh at them?
You know someone is losing a debate, or is simply dishonest, when they go to such lengths.

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7 users have voted.
WoodsDweller's picture

@gjohnsit
have less money in their pockets than the so-called "poor". They create jobs by hiring people to carry their money for them. Billionaires are the real victims here!

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8 users have voted.

"I cannot ignore reality, but I can embrace beauty." -- magiamma

snoopydawg's picture

She defends her vote for him.

"He's wasn't the candidate I wanted, but..."

Very sad Liz!

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12 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery