What exactly are Bernie's chances?

Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 11:33am

Bernie Sanders can't win. He's unelectable. He stands no chance. He should just drop out.

Gosh, if only there was some way to verify this.
Maybe some sort of poll.

An Emerson Polling survey released Tuesday found both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading President Trump by 10 points nationally.

The poll, conducted June 21-24 among 1,096 voters, found the two Democratic presidential hopefuls ahead of Trump in a hypothetical match-up, 55 percent to 45 percent.

I've never seen the media paint a candidate's chances in such dismal terms, while the polls show him being a co-leader.

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Submitted by WoodsDweller on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 12:01pm

I saw that Emerson poll yesterday.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/june-national-poll-all-eyes...

Joe Biden continues to hold his announcement bounce, and has gained a point since May - now holding 34% of the vote, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders who moved up 2 points to 27%. Senator Elizabeth Warren has broken away from the rest of those running, into 3rd place - improving from 10% of the vote up to 14%.

This poll seems to be an outlier, even though I personally like the numbers. I don't see any other polls with Sanders that high, and many with Warren a bit higher. It wasn't clear to me where these results come from, maybe their sample includes more younger voters.

In the end it's all about turnout. If young voters show up at primaries, Sanders can win. Polls are consistently showing Trump in the mid 40s, which is terrible for an incumbent. I'm not worried about the general, only about the primaries.

Centrists realize their true enemy are progressives. Progressives need to realize their true enemy are centrists.

EDIT: New today from Economist/YouGov -- Biden 25, Sanders 15, Warren 19, Harris 6, Gabbard 3. Again, I like the numbers but only 25 for Biden is either an outlier or a sign of things to come.

—

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 12:05pm

Are you sure?

@WoodsDweller

This poll seems to be an outlier, even though I personally like the numbers. I don't see any other polls with Sanders that high, and many with Warren a bit higher.

NEW POLL: @BernieSanders now has the single largest lead against Trump of any 2020 Democrat https://t.co/g7Cy4qncKP pic.twitter.com/x9dxUBAevP

— David Sirota (@davidsirota) June 17, 2019

It's hard to gauge the polls right now, but Sanders trouncing Trump is not really in question.
Bernie's biggest obstacle is the Dem establishment.

Submitted by WoodsDweller on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 12:08pm

I didn't mean beating Trump is an outlier

@gjohnsit I mean Sanders at 27 in the primary. Most polls have him in the mid-teens.
As far as Trump is concerned, I have been saying his only chance is for the Democrats to run a centrist. The more polling I see I'm becoming more convinced that there is simply no way for Trump to win, period.

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Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 12:16pm

We agree on that

@WoodsDweller
History supports it.

In the 1960’s about half of all voters registered as Democrats—today that number is only about 29 percent. As recently as 1978, Democrats controlled both legislative branches in thirty-one states, while Republicans had majorities in only eleven.
By 2016 Republicans controlled both legislatures and the governorship in twenty-five states, while Democrats control all three institutions in just six states. Nebraska, which has a unicameral, nonpartisan legislature, isn’t counted in this total. Meanwhile, thirty-four states have a Republican governor, while only fifteen are headed by a Democrat, and one—Alaska—is headed by an independent.

This losing trend directly parallels the Democratic Party’s drift to the center and then to the right. As groups like the Democratic Leadership Council embraced corporatism, and ran from New Deal and Great Society values, the Party lost ground.

In short, Democrats are on the verge of an existential crisis, but it’s centrism that is causing it.

Submitted by Wink on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 8:37pm

the mid teens are

the outlier.

@WoodsDweller

Bernie is in Biden's neighborhood,
not down by 9 or 10.
Four or five maybe. Maybe. Nine is bullsh!t.
'They' must be polling the over 50 crowd for Biden to be leading.
If the kids show up Bernie wins.
Except, of course, there's no friggin' way the DNC allows Bernie to win.

—

the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Thu, 06/27/2019 - 10:37pm

Ha, ha, ha. You probably believed Nate Silver's prediction

@WoodsDweller that HRC had 2016 in the bag. There is no sense of realism about Trump's chances. The ONLY way he could lose is with a new war or bad economy. This ain't gonna happen. All you Orange Man bad folks, stop eating the loco weed. Trump has it going away--bigger margin than in 2016. The only Dem who could beat El Trumpo is Tulsi but the DNC will never let her get that far. She's already getting the Sanders treatment. I'm surprised the DNC didn't find some way to keep her off the stage--but they will. That's my prediction based on solid polling--me, myself, and I. We three all agree on this. And remember, you're never alone with a schizophrenic.

I'm waiting for the Hildebeast. So, get out of the way Joe, Camel, Spartacus, Pocahontas, et. al.--you're standing in my light.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk96Z47xJxY]

Submitted by dkmich on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 1:04pm

RCP

National Average: Biden, Sandrs, Warren
RCP Average 6/6 - 6/25 32.0 16.9 12.8

Iowa: Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren
RCP Average 3/21 - 6/12 25.0 19.4 11.8 9.8

New Hampshire: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg
RCP Average 4/25 - 6/12 29.7 16.7 11.0 10.3

The ranking remains the same. How these people can demand that Bernie drop out when he is solidly in second place is ridiculous. Biden has got to flame out. All they need to do is poll some people under 102.

—

"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Submitted by Pluto's Republic on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 1:10pm

Sixteen months out. Lol.

Submitted by Dr. John Carpenter on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 1:19pm

They’re not quite wrong...

In a fair contest, yeah, Sanders would mop the floor with Trump. Anyone here think a fair contest is going to happen? “Bernie can’t win” headlines this far out which don’t follow the polls strike me as setting the stage for if he somehow makes it through the primaries and they have to lose the election for him.

(And it’s worth mentioning that it’s too bad Sanders will play along with the whole charade.)

—

Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.

Submitted by Fishtroller 02 on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 1:53pm

Watch carefully how the MSM treats Gabbard and

Sanders over the next two nights. Rachel Maddow is one of the questioners. This should be really interesting, but could also be quite upsetting. Be ready to pounce if the panel favors Warren and Harris with their questions. I'm expecting the whole thing to be really lopsided.

—

"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

Submitted by Shahryar on Wed, 06/26/2019 - 6:14pm