What exactly are Bernie's chances?

Bernie Sanders can't win. He's unelectable. He stands no chance. He should just drop out.

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Gosh, if only there was some way to verify this.
Maybe some sort of poll.
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An Emerson Polling survey released Tuesday found both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading President Trump by 10 points nationally.

The poll, conducted June 21-24 among 1,096 voters, found the two Democratic presidential hopefuls ahead of Trump in a hypothetical match-up, 55 percent to 45 percent.

I've never seen the media paint a candidate's chances in such dismal terms, while the polls show him being a co-leader.

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WoodsDweller's picture

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/june-national-poll-all-eyes...

Joe Biden continues to hold his announcement bounce, and has gained a point since May - now holding 34% of the vote, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders who moved up 2 points to 27%. Senator Elizabeth Warren has broken away from the rest of those running, into 3rd place - improving from 10% of the vote up to 14%.

This poll seems to be an outlier, even though I personally like the numbers. I don't see any other polls with Sanders that high, and many with Warren a bit higher. It wasn't clear to me where these results come from, maybe their sample includes more younger voters.

In the end it's all about turnout. If young voters show up at primaries, Sanders can win. Polls are consistently showing Trump in the mid 40s, which is terrible for an incumbent. I'm not worried about the general, only about the primaries.

Centrists realize their true enemy are progressives. Progressives need to realize their true enemy are centrists.

EDIT: New today from Economist/YouGov -- Biden 25, Sanders 15, Warren 19, Harris 6, Gabbard 3. Again, I like the numbers but only 25 for Biden is either an outlier or a sign of things to come.

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Yesterday is heavy, put it down.

@WoodsDweller

This poll seems to be an outlier, even though I personally like the numbers. I don't see any other polls with Sanders that high, and many with Warren a bit higher.

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It's hard to gauge the polls right now, but Sanders trouncing Trump is not really in question.
Bernie's biggest obstacle is the Dem establishment.

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WoodsDweller's picture

@gjohnsit I mean Sanders at 27 in the primary. Most polls have him in the mid-teens.
As far as Trump is concerned, I have been saying his only chance is for the Democrats to run a centrist. The more polling I see I'm becoming more convinced that there is simply no way for Trump to win, period.

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11 users have voted.

Yesterday is heavy, put it down.

@WoodsDweller
History supports it.

In the 1960’s about half of all voters registered as Democrats—today that number is only about 29 percent. As recently as 1978, Democrats controlled both legislative branches in thirty-one states, while Republicans had majorities in only eleven.

By 2016 Republicans controlled both legislatures and the governorship in twenty-five states, while Democrats control all three institutions in just six states. Nebraska, which has a unicameral, nonpartisan legislature, isn’t counted in this total. Meanwhile, thirty-four states have a Republican governor, while only fifteen are headed by a Democrat, and one—Alaska—is headed by an independent.

This losing trend directly parallels the Democratic Party’s drift to the center and then to the right. As groups like the Democratic Leadership Council embraced corporatism, and ran from New Deal and Great Society values, the Party lost ground.

In short, Democrats are on the verge of an existential crisis, but it’s centrism that is causing it.

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Wink's picture

the outlier.

@WoodsDweller

Bernie is in Biden's neighborhood,
not down by 9 or 10.
Four or five maybe. Maybe. Nine is bullsh!t.
'They' must be polling the over 50 crowd for Biden to be leading.
If the kids show up Bernie wins.
Except, of course, there's no friggin' way the DNC allows Bernie to win.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

Alligator Ed's picture

@WoodsDweller that HRC had 2016 in the bag. There is no sense of realism about Trump's chances. The ONLY way he could lose is with a new war or bad economy. This ain't gonna happen. All you Orange Man bad folks, stop eating the loco weed. Trump has it going away--bigger margin than in 2016. The only Dem who could beat El Trumpo is Tulsi but the DNC will never let her get that far. She's already getting the Sanders treatment. I'm surprised the DNC didn't find some way to keep her off the stage--but they will. That's my prediction based on solid polling--me, myself, and I. We three all agree on this. And remember, you're never alone with a schizophrenic.

I'm waiting for the Hildebeast. So, get out of the way Joe, Camel, Spartacus, Pocahontas, et. al.--you're standing in my light.

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dkmich's picture

National Average: Biden, Sandrs, Warren
RCP Average 6/6 - 6/25 32.0 16.9 12.8

Iowa: Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren
RCP Average 3/21 - 6/12 25.0 19.4 11.8 9.8

New Hampshire: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg
RCP Average 4/25 - 6/12 29.7 16.7 11.0 10.3

The ranking remains the same. How these people can demand that Bernie drop out when he is solidly in second place is ridiculous. Biden has got to flame out. All they need to do is poll some people under 102.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

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Pluto's Republic's picture

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The purpose of a writer is to keep civilization from destroying itself.
– Albert Camus

In a fair contest, yeah, Sanders would mop the floor with Trump. Anyone here think a fair contest is going to happen? “Bernie can’t win” headlines this far out which don’t follow the polls strike me as setting the stage for if he somehow makes it through the primaries and they have to lose the election for him.

(And it’s worth mentioning that it’s too bad Sanders will play along with the whole charade.)

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13 users have voted.

Sanders over the next two nights. Rachel Maddow is one of the questioners. This should be really interesting, but could also be quite upsetting. Be ready to pounce if the panel favors Warren and Harris with their questions. I'm expecting the whole thing to be really lopsided.

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

Shahryar's picture

@Fishtroller 02 @Fishtroller 02

Warren will be handed a big opportunity tonight.

Ray-shill will, under the guise of being a tough questioner, later pretend not to understand when people criticize her for bias.

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