Brett Kavanaugh fight backfiring on the Democrats
If the Democrats thought that exposing Brett Kavanaugh an as entitled jerk and unqualified for the Supreme Court (both claims appear to be true) was good politics, they were wrong.
Instead, races are more localized. But the past few weeks — during Republicans’ attempts to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court — have felt more like a presidential election, where the news has largely been nationalized.True to form, there have been some of the same sorts of arguments about the polls that I’m used to in presidential years, with competing narratives that may or may not square with the data. One plausible narrative is that the Kavanaugh hearings are helping to excite Republican voters and reduce the “enthusiasm gap” with Democrats. As The Upshot’s Nate Cohn points out, you can cobble together a credible case that polls since last Thursday’s Senate hearings have been comparatively good for Republicans.
While those polls show a shift towards the Republicans, it is small and could just be statistical noise.
However, the change in voter enthusiasm is a different story.
In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.
...With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base."The result of hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened," noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
...
"If there aren't 34 dramatic moments [between now and then], it will be 'my base versus your base,' " Miringoff said. He noted that the Republican move to push Kavanaugh's confirmation forward, despite his unpopularity and that more people believe accuser Christine Blasey Ford than Kavanaugh, appears to be intended to fire up the GOP base in hopes of retaining control of Congress."The Republicans' approach has been, and continues to be, all about the base," Miringoff said. "This is their M.O., and that's what we're seeing. That works if turnout is not high."
The Dems will only get a Blue Wave with high turnout.
High turnout will only happen if the Dems offer something to vote FOR, not just a reason to vote against.
Otherwise we will see a repeat of 2016.
Comments
Kind of related . . .
From:Planning to Vote in the November Election? Why Most Americans Probably Won’t
Lack of choices, political bickering and voter suppression appear to be key to turnout are pointed out in the article. I will add the lack of truth in what people are being told also affects turnout.
There still may be a wave, just not where it is needed.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Voter Registration Day could give a clue, IF . . .
it could be narrowed down which states had the most new registrations.
From:A Record 800,000 People Registered to Vote on National Voter Registration Day
That is a LOT of people.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
It does seem a repeat of 2016.
Democrats running as gop-lite in many areas. Nothing to say to working class people. Russia. Putin. Identity/gender politics. Utterly weak responses to immigration abuses. To dems working the policies espoused by Sanders, well, they are being marginalized.
I still have my suspicion about voter turn out of progressives who along with their candidates were beaten down during the primaries. Have the democrats done anything to motivate African American turn out?
I track what TYT publishes on youtube (their russiagate stuff is worse than Maddow) and they believe the polls indicate a utter wipe out of the gop. Again, 2016.
I follow Matt Stoller on Twitter. He bravely came out against Obama in 2012 for his totally losing record on income distribution and the increase of poverty. He has good tweets about working class male's and the politics of grievance. And Stoller sees the grievances as true and the democrats don't give a shit so the white male working class turns on democrats.
Stoller has great stuff about what Amazon is about the increase in wages. He found this NYTimes article.
Planning to Vote in the November Election? Why Most Americans Probably Won’t
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/03/us/non-voters-midterm-elections.html
Matt Stoller.
https://twitter.com/matthewstoller
(I am not on twitter, can can follow along on internet.)
Like Tina says
The politicians have forgotten this place
Except for flying visits in a black Mercedes
At election time
They cross the line
And everybody runs to watch the pantomime
If they could see what's going on around here
So many people hanging on the edge
Crying out for revolution
Retribution
The odds turn out even
When you give up believing in the
Cold law, steel claw...
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Republican voters vote for their candidates because they
believe in them and what they run on. Abortion, gay rights, cutting taxes and social programs etc. Democrats don't offer people anything anymore except lip service. Or identity politics bull crap. Plus they roll over for the republicans every chance they get. So why would people take off work to stand in 8-10 lines for people who won't do jack to help them?
Will the GOP listen to an ex Supreme Court justice who says that Kavanaugh shouldn't be confirmed?
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Considering that John Paul
Stevens rulings supported many liberal issues, probably not.
dfarrah
Democrats offer us Soylent Green
Hyperbole warnings if we "let" the Republicans win.
Sigh.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
It's not the exposers who
are wrong. It's the defenders of this fuck. Shame on them.
And if that turns out a Red Wave in Nov. shame on us for not getting out the vote.
Which is the same ol' lame ol' why we lose.
2018 and 2020 belong to us.
If we allow Repubs to steal it then shame on us.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
It all happens here
SCIF = “Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility”:
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
Andrew Desiderio
✔
@desiderioDC
This is the SCIF where senators are entering today to read the supplemental FBI report on Brett Kavanaugh.
7:28 AM - Oct 4, 2018 · Washington, DC
120
129 people are talking about this
SCIF = “Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility”:
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
Andrew Desiderio
✔
@desiderioDC
This is the SCIF where senators are entering today to read the supplemental FBI report on Brett Kavanaugh.
7:28 AM - Oct 4, 2018 · Washington, DC
120
129 people are talking about this
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
What the hearings remind us
What the hearings remind us is that everyone went to an Ivy and comes from a privileged background. No matter which side of the Kavanaugh they are on they are all of the same background.
Yes!
The pedigree has to be either Harvard or Yale.
Add to that, both Gorsuch and Kavanaugh attended Georgetown Prep which is a conduit to elite universities and to high profile DC jobs.
I would add one more thing, religion. Of the nine justices, five are either Catholic or raised Catholic and the other three are Jewish. Kennedy was Catholic and Kavanaugh is also Catholic. So we are looking at a Supreme Court that is 2/3 Catholic and 1/3 Jewish.
How does that compare with the population at large? Currently the religious breakdown in the US is 73.7% Christian, 2.1% Jewish, with the remaining 24.3% other religions or unaffiliated. A further breakout of the Christian population shows 48.9% are Protestants, 23.0% are Catholics, and 1.8% are Mormons.
Of the five judges on Trumps short list, four were Catholic and the fith was an evangelical. So why is a Supreme Court so heavily weighted with Catholics an issue? Think Roe versus Wade. And think also of lifetime appointments. This Court will be a very conservative court for as many as 20-30 more years.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Anyone else remember the furor over
JFK being Catholic? The cry was that the pope would run the White House.
Now Catholics are favored as reports of sexual abuse mount.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
@gulfgal98
Three of the nine are from NYC, before Scalia's death it was four. And the majority graduated from Yale or Harvard, where is the diversity.
It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
Diversity is just something used to browbeat “deplorables” with
these days. Oh, and it’s also the excuse elite colleges and universities use to justify discriminating against non-Jewish white kids and kids of East Asian ancestry.
@gulfgal98 What is truly ironic is
What is truly ironic is that the Constitution was written by Protestants and deists and we have Catholics and Jews interpreting what the Protestants and deists wrote.
bing. n/t
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
This is also my takeaway
from the entire farce. And I trust there are many others who have realised the same. It's all been very revealing of the quicksand American politics is built on.
Even Republicans know
that the main reason the Democratic party is on its last legs is because the Democrats do not stand FOR anything. Identity politics is and always has been a sham.
The Democrats approached the Cavanaugh hearing from the wrong perspective with the sexual assault allegations because there was no way to prove the allegation true or untrue. Even if true, it was used as a form of identity politics instead of concentrating on Kavanaugh's atrocious judicial record. IMO, Whitehouse did ask some very good questions that should have gotten more coverage. But once Feinstein raised the sexual assault allegation, it took all the air out of the room and turned it into a circus.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
The real issue - Feinswine's (as we call her in SF) motive
That's the real issue - Feinswine's (as we call her in SF
She held Blasey back until the last minute. Blasey claimed that she was so traumatized that she couldn't testify with Kavanaugh in the room and refused to answer questions from a professional prosecutor, but when that prosecutor showed she not only testified, she was "calm". (I didn't watch, so the assessment could well have come from biased sources)
Fishy.
Now, what was Feinstein's plan? Did she wait until the last moment to catch the Republicans ubprepared? Is Blasey a plant, the D equivalent to GHWB's "incubator babies" scam? Did she pull out Blasey because someone threatened to ask policy questions, and that might scuttle Kavanaugh like it did Bork, and she couldn't have that? I put nothing beneath Feinswine. Nothing.
On to Biden since 1973
Heidi Heitkamp is voting no on Kavanaugh
This is me being cynical again. Does she have cover to vote no because Manchkin, Collins, Flake and Murkawskie are voting yes or is she doing it for the right reason? The kos kids are saying that if the GOP have the votes then it would be okay for Manchkin to vote for a possible sexual assaulter and a perjured candidate just so he can keep his seat.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Lisa decided to take a stand by not taking
a stand. Or that's what she said she would do
He was ALWAYS going to be confirmed.
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Democrats will also confirm this asshat.
Not that the Repigs need every Dem to do so. The pigs have to maintain a controlled opposition, after all. And their excuse will be the usual "but if we don't confirm him, Dipshit will pick someone even worse" nonsense. I tried explaining this to my Dipshit supporting mother, but all she could go off on is "But the Democrats and that laughing woman (Referring to Dr. Ford) are ruining this guy's family". It's times like these I feel like if I never speak to her again it'll still be too soon.
Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.
Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.
Your mother is right.
I was very young when I watched the Army-McCarthy hearings with my father on black and white television.
I thought I would never see those evil days again, but Feinstein has resurrected them.
Kavanaugh should be rejected because his views are outside the mainstream of American jurisprudence, not because of bogus unprovable McCarthylike accusations.
I hope he IS confirmed because of this derailing of the confirmation process. I hope he sues Ford and Feinstein for millions of dollars of defamation damages.
If he is rejected Evil triumphs and who will be the next to go to the guillotine?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
How about ALL of them?
It's what they all deserve, including that fuckin' pig Kavanaugh for playing his part in this horseshit spectacle.
But then, this site would rather bitch about the Dems while treating the Repigs as the lesser evil.
Why you guys choose to play this stupid game, I'll never guess.
Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.
Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.
True
There is only so much tony real estate, only so many exclusive kindergartens, primary and private secondary schools and only so many slots in Yale and Harvard. Only so many exclusive vacation spots. These people live cheek and jowl by each other, they tolerate each other fine. In the end it's not life or death for them, it's just putting up with the mildly offensive inconveniences.
The worst thing about this level of "democrats" (political donors)is that they have contempt for so many of their fellow citizens. They feel with all they and their kids have they live a modest existence, and by god they deserve all they have. The rest of us, if we look like them, it's not even pity, because it's our fault we're too stupid and untalented, in thrall to our vices and faults, and so success eludes us.
At least the republicans are open about their contempt.
Meritocracy, baby!
https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/04/obamas-defenders-are-wron...
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/business/media/michelle-obama-book-to...
The Kool Kidz hate Trump because he’s such a vulgar money-grubber. The Clintons and the Obamas, now, they know how to do money-grubbing with style.
Would you please point out where us people
stupidly do that? Just a link.
And maybe, just MAYBE, we bitch about the Dims because they are our common problem. Since I’m not a Republican, don’t vote for Republicans, and DIDN’T actively support the Republican Party for 40+ years, they’re not the source of my problems. Worthless quisling Dims are my problem.
YMMV
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Both parties are the problem.
But it's the Democrats' job to make them worse by not only doing nothing, but passing Republican policies even when they're in charge. That's how controlled opposition works.
Tacitly supporting one faction of the pigs just to spite the opposition won't help a damn thing.
Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.
Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.
Neither does constant bitching and complaining without an
an alternative. I myself invested 40+ years supporting the Dimocrits. They were supposed to be the party of the little guy. Up to the Clintons that is. And since there are only 2 political parties, and not having ever been a Republican, it’s the Dims who have betrayed me and people like me, not the Pubbies. And until there is a viable Third Party, that’s all we’ve got. That’s how it works. This system is built around 2 parties and that’s how you get on the ticket. Until that changes (don’t hold your breath waiting for it) we are forced to work with what we have.
Why the hell would any real lefty spend time condemning only the Repubbies? We KNOW who and what they are. They aren’t the ones that screwed us over (and continue to do so). Think about it this way, if your significant other cheats on you do you piss and moan about someone else’s boyfriend/girlfriend?
I (we) KNOW what the other side wants out of this country. They make no bones about it. It’s the party that we all came from who tried to rig the election, told Sanders supporters to go away, and the proceeded to attempt delegitimize the administration of the winner with lies and accusations of foreign interference. With the help of a Dimocritic President and the connivance of the Intelligence community. THAT is what the Dims did. Not the Repubbies.
And finally, we get nothing from those weasels. The Repubs have nothing on the guy who bailed out Wall Street and the 1% while everyone else got ‘Austerity’. Think about that for a minute. Which party was actually screwing us? It wasn’t the Repubbies.
Why not try joining in the conversation for a change instead of throwing pointless insults at everyone?
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Both parties need to die at once.
Otherwise, any effort made to change anything will be for naught.
Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.
Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.
Some dems will vote to confirm
because they come from a Conservative district. So for the next vote they'll still be from a Conservative district, and have to vote with the republicans. So, how are they better than republicans? Why don't they just fall on the sword (I'll hold it for them) and take one for the team?
There'll be a wave election all right, followed by a buh bye.
Over and over and over.
I just do not get this logic but we see it time and time again. I don’t understand the point of a Republican in Democrat clothing. Maybe they might be surprised if they actually gave people an alternative instead of being all too willing to vote the same as the other guy would have.
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
That's pretty sad
It's saying that you have to cater to the people who like entitled, unqualified jerks to win in our completely rotted politics. What a damn depressing situation. My opinon is that those people who like entitled, unqualified jerks are basically good people who have been brainwashed by the entitled, unqualified jerk propaganda echo chamber.
Beware the bullshit factories.
For years now they've heard us and all we get in return is
getting banned or driven off their websites. That people won't turn out to vote if they don't start listening to the left is what we have all been banned or driven out of their websites for years for. To prevent giving us someone to vote for that would turn out the vote they even invented superdelegates years ago.
They don't CARE if they turn out the vote. How many times do you have to be reminded of this?
The Democratic Party was taken over by the oligarchs decades ago. They are doing their best to make damned sure there is NEVER going to be a Blue Wave.
On the subject
It was always a long shot BK wouldn’t be confirmed. The opposition’s approach was suspect as it could only exacerbate their concerns.
Kennedy was a swing vote. The best the Dems could have hoped for was BK would be a swing vote. There was nothing endearing about the way BK feels he was treated. His temperament was understandable; “gang rapist?” There was no chance he was staying calm.
While deliberating over the constitutionality of some future issue, BK (while on the fence) will realize the conformation process changed him, he most likely will “stick it to the bastards.”
This could go on as long as he thinks his daughters don’t look at him the same way. I doubt he’s ever been angrier in his life.
Had the Democrats, at the confirmation hearings, reminded him of Stevens approving the ACA and the record of Kennedy voting across political lines, it could have made a difference in future outcomes.
Most likely, BK will be another Clarence Thomas, spitting every time he takes a sip of coke.
If I remember that pubic hair (I had zero interest in politics at that time) you know Clarence does.
What will Brett remember and how will it affect him?
Here, from Nina Burleigh at Medium, is the best
explanation I have seen about why the Rethugs want Cavanaugh so badly they are willing to lose the House to get him on the court.
Not because of Roe vs. Wade. The conservative 5th vote doesn't need to be smart, have judicial temperament, or be a legal scholar. He only needs to do what he is told.
https://medium.com/s/powertrip/the-beltway-bully-boys-e7aaab3cdfa6
Mary Bennett