Will there be a Blue Wave? Maybe not.
The polls are all over the map.
This Gallup poll says "no".
Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.
...Only one other time in the last decade has the Republican Party had a significantly higher score than the Democratic Party. That one exception came in November 2014, immediately after elections that saw Republicans capture control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House, when 42% rated the GOP favorably and 36% the Democrats.
That's a very bad sign, but it's only one poll.
This NBC/WSJ poll is much more mixed.
Democrats hold a 12-point lead in congressional preference among registered voters according to a new poll that suggests trouble for Republicans in the midterm congressional elections in six weeks.
The new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Donald Trump is dragging down his party, with nearly six-in-ten saying they’d like to see significant changes in the direction President Donald Trump has been leading the country.
...the survey of 900 of registered voters, conducted September 16-19, found 52 percent say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, to 40 percent who want GOP control.
That's very good news for the Dems, but there is also a bit of bad news as well.
The poll does have some good news for Republicans. It shows GOP enthusiasm about the election has increased to nearly match Democrats, and that 70 percent of all voters are satisfied with the economy.
Enthusiasm, i.e. getting your base to vote, is critical.
On the bright side, independents are more closely lining up with Democrats than with Republicans, according to an Ipsos poll.
If 2016 taught us anything, the independents are the swing voters.
On stuff like the GOP tax cut, reality appears to be subjective.
But the most interesting poll is this Fox News one.
Among likely voters, Democrats didn’t fare all that well: 44% of the public believes Dems love the country and what what’s best for it, while 43% believe Democrats simply want what’s best for their party. Ideally, a popular party would see a much larger gap, with the former easily outnumbering the latter.
But public attitudes about the GOP were quite a bit worse. The Fox News poll found that 36% of likely voters believe Republicans sincerely want what’s best for the country, while a 52% majority sees Republicans putting their party’s interests above the nation’s interests.
This isn’t the usual poll result. We tend to focus on traditional metrics: approve or disapprove, favorable or unfavorable, plans to vote for one party’s candidate or the other party’s candidate, etc.
But the question in the Fox News poll stands out as different because it’s asking a different kind of question: it refers to deeper questions about patriotism and partisanship. And on this front, at least in this poll, Republicans aren’t faring especially well.
It's interesting that a majority of the public believes that the party that wraps itself in the flag the most is the least patriotic.