Will there be a Blue Wave? Maybe not.

The polls are all over the map.
This Gallup poll says "no".
gallup_3.png

Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.
...Only one other time in the last decade has the Republican Party had a significantly higher score than the Democratic Party. That one exception came in November 2014, immediately after elections that saw Republicans capture control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House, when 42% rated the GOP favorably and 36% the Democrats.

That's a very bad sign, but it's only one poll.

This NBC/WSJ poll is much more mixed.

Democrats hold a 12-point lead in congressional preference among registered voters according to a new poll that suggests trouble for Republicans in the midterm congressional elections in six weeks.

The new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Donald Trump is dragging down his party, with nearly six-in-ten saying they’d like to see significant changes in the direction President Donald Trump has been leading the country.
...the survey of 900 of registered voters, conducted September 16-19, found 52 percent say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, to 40 percent who want GOP control.

That's very good news for the Dems, but there is also a bit of bad news as well.

The poll does have some good news for Republicans. It shows GOP enthusiasm about the election has increased to nearly match Democrats, and that 70 percent of all voters are satisfied with the economy.

Enthusiasm, i.e. getting your base to vote, is critical.

On the bright side, independents are more closely lining up with Democrats than with Republicans, according to an Ipsos poll.
If 2016 taught us anything, the independents are the swing voters.

On stuff like the GOP tax cut, reality appears to be subjective.
taxcut_0.jpg

But the most interesting poll is this Fox News one.
party.png

Among likely voters, Democrats didn’t fare all that well: 44% of the public believes Dems love the country and what what’s best for it, while 43% believe Democrats simply want what’s best for their party. Ideally, a popular party would see a much larger gap, with the former easily outnumbering the latter.

But public attitudes about the GOP were quite a bit worse. The Fox News poll found that 36% of likely voters believe Republicans sincerely want what’s best for the country, while a 52% majority sees Republicans putting their party’s interests above the nation’s interests.

This isn’t the usual poll result. We tend to focus on traditional metrics: approve or disapprove, favorable or unfavorable, plans to vote for one party’s candidate or the other party’s candidate, etc.

But the question in the Fox News poll stands out as different because it’s asking a different kind of question: it refers to deeper questions about patriotism and partisanship. And on this front, at least in this poll, Republicans aren’t faring especially well.

It's interesting that a majority of the public believes that the party that wraps itself in the flag the most is the least patriotic.

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gulfgal98's picture

in another essay. My comment pertains only to the Senate seats up for grabs. I think it might be interesting to repost it under this essay and see if anyone has more insights and comments to add.

Blue wave in the Senate?

What are the Democrats smoking? Maybe I am missing something here.

There are 35 Senate seats up for election this November. The current break down in the Senate is 51 seats Republican, 47 seats Democratic, and 2 seats Independent. Assuming the Independents go with the Democrats, then the Democrats must pick up two more seats to get a majority and that is also assuming all Senators vote along party lines.

So I went to Wikipedia to see which Senate seats are up for election in 2018 and I am perplexed as to where the Democrats believe they are going to pick up two seats while not losing any current seats. There is an excellent graphic in the link that summarizes the seats and predictions of how the voting will go for each seat.

First, let's summarize the break out of the current seats by party. Of those 35 seats, 24 are currently held by Democrats, two by Independents who generally vote with the Democrats, and nine by Republicans.

The two Independent seats are safe.

Of the 24 Democratic seats, 12 are rated as safe, eight are lean Democratic or likely Democratic, and four are a tossup with Heidi Heitcamp's seat a possible flip to Republican.

Of the nine Republican seats, five are safe or likely Republican, two are tossup or lean Republican and two are straight tossup.

Of the tossup seats in both parties, only Heitcamp's seat is marked for a possible party change. If Heitcamp's seat is lost then the Democrats must pick up three Republican seats to gain a majority in the Senate.

Maybe I am not seeing where this blue wave is going to come from and I may be wrong. The Democratic party which lost so spectacularly in 2010 and 2014 as well as the Presidential election 2016, has suddenly found a message that resonates with average people so as to be able to flip enough seats to win a majority in the Senate? I am not seeing it.

Does anyone else see this differently?

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~Dr. Cornel West

"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare." Sun Tzu

@gulfgal98

Heidi Heitcamp's seat a possible flip to Republican.

I certainly won't shed a tear if she loses.
In fact, I sorta hope she loses.

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gulfgal98's picture

@gjohnsit But my point was that I think the Dems are delusional that somehow they are going to retake the Senate. They need to retake the Senate in order to impeach Trump which seems to have been their wet dream since the day he was elected. I simply do not see a path to the Democrats retaking the Senate.

Here in Florida, my choice is Bill Nelson or Rick Scott. To be honest, there probably is not that much difference between the two if you look at Nelson's voting record. Nelson never met a war that he did not like. These are the type of choices that the Democrats continue to foist upon us.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~Dr. Cornel West

"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare." Sun Tzu

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@gulfgal98 On the other hand, Rick Scott is an alien:

2018-08-22-rick-scott.jpg

He's a criminal alien on the run. These good aliens are from the same planet, sent to capture him and take him back:

adam.jpg

bosh.jpg

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The part of John Edwards could easily be played by a burnt-out light bulb.
--strollingone

The issue is patriotism. You've got to get back to your planet and stop the Commies. All it takes is a few good men.
--Q

Morire de cara sol.
--Jose Marti

mhagle's picture

@gjohnsit

I was excited when she was elected, but that soon faded. A traitor on most issues.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

lotlizard's picture

@gjohnsit  
I thought it meant “we” had the majority in the Senate.

♪ ♫ “But I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now”

— Bob Dylan, “My Barack Pages” Wink

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@gjohnsit

Heidi Heitcamp's seat a possible flip to Republican.

All that would require is for Ms. Heitcamp to change her registration to match her policies.

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"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

@gulfgal98 This is the analysis that always seems to be lacking. Every time “Blue wave” gets mentioned, there’s never any “how?” along with it. It’s just sorta implied that because Trump is an idiot, it’s just destined to happen. Yeah, heard that before.

I always tried to math it out in my head and the numbers just didn’t add up. You spelled it out and came up with the same out come I had. So either the Dems know something we don’t, or this is a long shot.

Honestly, I’m cynical enough to think they don’t really care as long as they hold steady. (And even then, maybe not.) I’m still really unconvinced they want to impeach Trump. He is their 2020 strategy and all they have for get out the vote. Pence is more dangerous but he doesn’t have the emotional pull. If the “blue wave” doesn’t happen, they don’t have to go through the motions of impeachment and they can stay the course for 2020.

Of course, we all know it’s a loser of a path. But the Dems refuse to offer anything else. All they’ve got is “not Trump”. I think they’re greatly overestimating how well that’s going to play.

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Amanda Matthews's picture

@Dr. John Carpenter
before. Most recently the last election.

I give up predicting anything.

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I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks

Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa

@Amanda Matthews @Amanda Matthews and if last election showed anything, the polls are worthless. I could be as wrong as anyone else but it sure feels like a rerun of 2016 in a lot of ways.

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@gulfgal98 @gulfgal98 @gulfgal98 0 My understanding is that the pollsters poll only people who have voted in recent elections, they do not include new registrants or those who vote sometimes. I don't pay much attention to national polls, I look at the locals polls. I don't know if there will be a blue wave, but Democrats have turned out in larger numbers this primary season. Florida almost doubled from 800,000 to 1.5million. Just remembered seeing someone on a tv panel with a chart showing the national numbers, Democrats had more than 4 million votes than the Republicans this primary season. We'll find out in November.

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It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan

gulfgal98's picture

@chambord I think the record numbers may be attributed to the Governor's race. I know Andrew Gillum very well and worked with him at the City of Tallahassee. He is an outstanding campaigner and a very smart guy. IMO Gillum is the one who energized the Democratic primary race for governor.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~Dr. Cornel West

"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare." Sun Tzu

WoodsDweller's picture

@gulfgal98
Is there any news on Amendment 4? The only polling I managed to pull up was from June, which is ancient.

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I like this world. It's not perfect, but everything I love is in it.

Centaurea's picture

@gulfgal98
There's an article in the NYTimes today that may shed some light on the Dems' thinking, such as it is.

The title of the article is "The Democratic Dream: Defeat Kavanaugh, Win the Senate, and Stop Trump Supreme Court Picks".

Some Democratic strategists said a successful confirmation might actually do more to help the party take the Senate by outraging women and motivating them to vote.

“Confirming Kavanaugh would spark a political explosion, exacerbate the gender gap and dramatically increase Democrats’ chance of taking back the Senate,” said Mr. Jentleson [Adam Jentleson, top aide to Harry Reid], “while an open seat or confirmation battle closer to Election Day could be a motivator for Republican voters.”

So in essence, the Dems want Kavanaugh to be confirmed, because (in their view) it will incite a lot of public angst and chaos, plus further inflame the gender gap, which will all somehow work to motivate voters to put the Dems back in power.

The above quote gives some insight on the timing. In order for the scenario to work, the Blasey Ford accusations had to be released at just the right time. Not too early, and not too close to the elections.

It also confirms what many of us already know about the Dems' modus operandi.

Here's the link to the article. Hint: open it in a private, secret or incognito mode of your browser.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/25/us/politics/trump-kavanaugh-supreme-c...

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~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
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Pricknick's picture

@Centaurea
We'll give up the supreme court if we can impeach Trump.
This is how losers win at failing.
It's the completion backward principle.
It fits the Kav hearings.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

snoopydawg's picture

@Pricknick

impeach Trump. The best one is his breaking the emoluments clause. But Nancy has stated more than once that she has no interest in impeachment "at this time." So there is no reason for them to take back congress. Besides. If they do then they would have to govern and we know that they don't want to do that.

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@Pricknick And, I hadn't thought of that in years. If only is was a completion backward principle...

Attack of the fifty-foot woman
Our love was at an end
All she did to get her kicks
Was step on all the men

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gulfgal98's picture

@Centaurea According to Q, the Dems offered to give up on Kavanaugh if Trump would not release the fourth FISA warrant on Carter Page. Trump said no deal.

D's Trying Negotiate Pullback of FISA Declassification
2199
Q!!mG7VJxZNCI
17 Sep 2018 - 8:33:16 PM
PANIC IN DC
D's offering to [KILL] sexual assault allegation v Judge K in exchange for immediate pullback of DECLAS.
POTUS: Judge K will be confirmed regardless…
Q

Second, I wrote a very long comment on why I do not believe the Dems can take the Senate. I simply did not see a path forward to that goal. Here is the link to that comment. I may be wrong, but I simply do not see it. https://caucus99percent.com/comment/370378#comment-370378

This is all theater IMO.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~Dr. Cornel West

"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare." Sun Tzu

Centaurea's picture

@gulfgal98

Two weeks ago, what was everyone talking about? Trump's ordering the declassification of those FISA warrant docs. Then the Kavanaugh story came along and took over the MSM headlines.

I really want to see that FISA documentation.

Theater: It's important to remember that all of this is taking place within the context of a coup attempt.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Pricknick's picture

much of a wave in my locality.
Ann Arbor is usually on the forefront of policies that help the middle class. Very few are talking about voting democratic because of their well founded belief that the party is only in it for themselves. The only saving grace may be that a higher than usual turnout is expected because of three very popular ballot initiatives.

Proposal 1 Marijuana: Legalizes marijuana for recreational use
Proposal 2 Redistricting: Creates an independent citizens redistricting commission
Proposal 3 Elections: Creates state constitutional rights to certain voting policies
https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan_2018_ballot_measures

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Pricknick That's why I'm voting. I'm going to have to get a new voter ID to replace the one I tore up. It's all about the referenda. I just hope the election isn't rigged on local referenda.

I'm not voting for any politicians, that's for sure.

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The part of John Edwards could easily be played by a burnt-out light bulb.
--strollingone

The issue is patriotism. You've got to get back to your planet and stop the Commies. All it takes is a few good men.
--Q

Morire de cara sol.
--Jose Marti

thanatokephaloides's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

I'm not voting for any politicians, that's for sure.

"Local Politician Changes Name to 'Marijuana'; Wins In Landslide"

Wink

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"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

snoopydawg's picture

@thanatokephaloides

It's good to see you here finally. Hope that things are going well for you.

Medical marijuana is on our ballot, but only for people who have 6 months to live. Even so the church that used to be known as the Mormons are fighting it tooth and nail. Of course they think it's a route to recreational marijuana. Pretty sure I know what is being discussed in Stake houses across Utah.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@snoopydawg

It's good to see you here finally. Hope that things are going well for you.

Thank you, snoopydawg! Smile

Medical marijuana is on our ballot, but only for people who have 6 months to live. Even so the church that used to be known as the Mormons are fighting it tooth and nail.

"Mormon" -- one "m" too many! Wink

Of course they think it's a route to recreational marijuana. Pretty sure I know what is being discussed in Stake houses across Utah.

And their point is..... ??

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"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

snoopydawg's picture

@thanatokephaloides

The prophet has stated that the church will no longer be known as the Mormon church. From now on they are to be called The Church of Latter Day Saints. Can you imagine how much money it's going to take to change the things called Mormon? Yep. Lose the M.

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Amanda Matthews's picture

@Pricknick
draw out the votes.

But I don’t know. This country is so screwed up.

I always vote because I think it’s a ‘duty’. Plus I think if you don’t, you don’t have a right to complain about the outcome.

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I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks

Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa

Pricknick's picture

@Amanda Matthews

Plus I think if you don’t, you don’t have a right to complain about the outcome.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Amanda Matthews In a system rife with election fraud, you absolutely have the right to complain about the outcome if you don't vote.

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The part of John Edwards could easily be played by a burnt-out light bulb.
--strollingone

The issue is patriotism. You've got to get back to your planet and stop the Commies. All it takes is a few good men.
--Q

Morire de cara sol.
--Jose Marti

I have been watching some TYT videos (my account at TOP has been terminated) and they are pushing what seems to be repeats of 2016. Really knocking Trump voters as stupid. But it seems like 2016 repeat as the democrats stand for nothing but corporate status quo and push identity politics. One claim was made that white women are turning away from gop--same claims in 2016 that Hillary was winning white women--and of course the opposite happened. And of course RussiaRussiaRussia. I don't particularly see where democrats have made strides in increasing the African American vote. But I do see a growing pool of disaffected progressives who got beaten down during the primary process in local and state races.

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Raggedy Ann's picture

what the universe has in store for our future. I've got plenty of popcorn! Diablo

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"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn

mhagle's picture

It's a different animal here. The dems have done nothing. Nothing. Nothing. For the 26 years I have lived here. The media afterward may call it a blue wave, but it definitely is not. The candidates are not perfectly progressive, but the ones I will have the opportunity to vote for are progressive enough. Few true corporate dems as far as I can see. Individuals are campaigning hard, but Beto's campaign is the big driving force, not the dem party. I am hoping that folks vote a straight ticket this time so other's are swept into office with him.

Ted is such a green asshole. He is despised. He will only get votes from those who "fear" liberalism. Fundamentalist religious types.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

Wink's picture

the next week I say No.
But as we get closer to Nov. I suspect and expect No.
I just don't see it, I see almost zero enthusiasm.
And if there's going to be one, it's all about dragging that wave across the finish line with enthusiasm carrying the day. I see none. For all the screaming about the Repub incumbent here in NY-21, I see damn little enthusiasm for our Establishment Dim candidate, and even less for her chance to win. Our knocking on doors and phone calls have been met with glazed stares and clicks. I'm just hoping, at least, that we get a Dim-controlled Senate here in (Albany) NY state. At this point it's about all we can hope for.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-1.9) All about building progressive media.

WoodsDweller's picture

it will come from unlikely voters who aren't part of the likely voter model.
It will come from voters who aren't registered yet, but will be in time for the election. They may or may not be polled before then.
If it doesn't come from there, it won't come at all.

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I like this world. It's not perfect, but everything I love is in it.

dkmich's picture

36% of likely voters believe Republicans sincerely want what’s best for the country

Same 36% that believe in UFOs and ghosts.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

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Wink's picture

is a true story.
@dkmich
Not "based on a true story." Actually happened.
(except maybe for the mashed potatoes).
Or so I've been told, and have no reason to doubt.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-1.9) All about building progressive media.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

Been watching Dems lose elections for nearly four decades now and it's nearly always the same.

Generic Dems outpoll generic Goopers in September, but individual races are much closer.

As October drags on, the individual race numbers firm up as wavering registered Goopers come home (and they always do) while the Dems try to hang on to ephemeral leads by riling up the likely voter base with hot button issues to get them to turn out.

All these basic trends are exacerbated during the midterms when base turnout is especially critical.

And in November, the Goopers always back into power on the strength of their base's loyalty and the Democrats' ineptitude at reaching disaffected independents.

No reason to think this year will be any different.

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The drama of the deep state in full factional meltdown makes Mario Puzo look like a dime store hack.

"All politics is local."

It's fairly common knowledge that generic, national party polls are pretty useless, (even misdirecting) especially when it comes to midterm elections. I always look at the perceived (which, all too often, has little to do with reality) state of the economy to be the best predictor of an election's outcome--and when it comes to midterms, that's on a state-by-state/region-by-region basis. And, again, and also as noted by gjohnsit, it's the Independent vote/voter turnout that usually defines the outcome.

Midterms are very much "the local event." National party polls are totally useless in situations such as this. Look at what's happening, locally. That's really all that matters. This year--roughly six weeks before election day--the Georgia and Florida gubernatorial races have captured my attenton, where Abrams and Gillum are now holding steady (albeit modest) leads in their respective races going into the homestretch.

Generally speaking, and barring any last-minute "October surprises," it looks like the Dems will win the House, and the GOP will hold the Senate. The number(s) to watch in virtually all of these races--as is the case in most elections--is the percent of undecided voters as of the third week, give or take, in October. (If it's above 5%-7%, it's often a big flag, usually in favor of the underdog. Case in point: in the 2016 presidential race, it was somewhere in the neighborhood of 10%-14%+/- undecided voters, just a week or two prior to the general election).

Here in New York, for instance, Democratic voter turnout was very high (for a Thursday primary, no less), especially in those key state senate races, widely discussed, here and elsewhere. That bodes very well for the Dems in close congressional races in our state in November.

AGAIN (especially in midterm races): "All politics is local."

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"Where the press is free, and every man able to read, all is safe." --Thomas Jefferson