From Germany with Love (or Hate) - Putin in Luck - Trump's Dollar Baton

This my own translation of an article of the weekly news smagazin "Der Spiegel". All mistakes or comprehension twists are mine. I do not excerpt to not introduce bias by being selective.
Merkel-Besuch in Sotschi Putin im Glück = Merkel visit in Sochi - Putin in Luck
by Christiane Hoffmann - Friday, 05/18/2018 10:02 pm

Syria, Iran, Ukraine: Chancellor Merkel came to Russia as a petitioner during her visit to Sochi today. She met a president who is more important internationally than ever before.

For Vladimir Putin, things could not go any better at the moment: The West is breaking down almost as fast as the Eastern bloc before his eyes, the transatlantic relationship is in the worst crisis of its history, and Europe is more dependent on Russia than ever before. In Syria, in Ukraine, in the nuclear deal with Iran - nothing works without Moscow.

In Italy, a government is currently emerging that has written the end of Russia's sanctions in its coalition agreement. The war in Syria is largely over in Putin's mind. And as if that was not enough, even Sergei Skripal was released from the hospital, for the Kremlin ruler the best proof that all allegations of the West, Moscow poisoned the ex-agent, are groundless.

This roughly outlined the situation in which Chancellor Angela Merkel met on Friday with the Russian President in his Black Sea Datsche Botscharew Rutschej.

Merkel's long list

Merkel had traveled to Sochi with a long list of concerns, one could almost say: pleas. Russia may finally agree to a robust UN mission in eastern Ukraine, so that the Minsk process can get going again. Russia may like to say (please) that even after the construction of the planned Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2, some of its gas will flow westwards via Ukraine in order to secure for that country the revenue from the transit.

Putin is to contain Iran in Syria. In addition, Russia should assert its influence on the regime of President Assad to facilitate the return of refugees. Assad's government has issued a decree expropriating the fledgling owners of houses and apartments. And let Russia mediate, so that the extremely dangerous situation around the city of Idlib, where 50,000 rebels have entrenched themselves together with civilians, can be defused.

In return, Merkel was able to offer one thing above all: further support for Nord Stream 2. Berlin has been fighting in Brussels against the EU Commission, which wants to prescribe to Russia, how much gas could flow through the oil pipeline, by regulation.

Chancellor Merkel was unable to get substantial concessions from Putin, but at least the atmosphere seemed less icy than at the last meeting in Sochi a year ago. More than an hour and a half, much longer than planned, the two sat together in private. After the serious collapse between them after the Ukraine crisis, something like trust seems to grow again. In concrete agreements Merkel sees Putin again as a reliable counterpart

Trump, the invisible third party

Merkel made it clear that for Germany the conflict in Ukraine is still the central issue. Putin, on the other hand, only mentioned the conflict just as the sidelines. He said that he ordered the foreign ministries to bow once more to the plan for a UN mission. In reality though the ideas about the mandate of the mission are a long way far apart from each other.

Considering the transit routes through Ukraine, Putin was open minded: The deliveries would continue, he said, but he immediately followed up with a restriction: "If they make economic sense."

For Syria, Putin expects humanitarian aid and support for reconstruction, he called on the Chancellor to give up "incomprehensible restrictions" on the Syrian government. It was necessary to depoliticize the auxiliary process, he demanded. Those who want people (refugees) to return from Europe to Syria need to work with the Syrian government, Putin said.

The invisible third party in the meeting with Putin was, of course, Donald Trump. Putin sees himself confirmed in his worldview by Trump. Russia has always believed that the US represents its interests and pulls with punches for them. That is a rather new experience for the Europeans.

It was important to Merkel that she did not give the impression that a new German-Russian alliance against the Americans was growing. One can say: That was not a danger at no time. The Chancellor repeatedly emphasized the "serious, fundamental differences" with Russia. And when Putin tried a joke at the expense of the Americans at the press conference, Merkel did not squinch up her face.

The first smile came only after 20 minutes: at the handshake to say goodbye. Nevertheless, the reckless acting of the US president seems to mitigate the view of Putin. Merkel spoke at the end of "overall important discussions". When she arrived at the palace, the Russian President had received the Chancellor with a bouquet of white roses. Flowers from Putin personally, Merkel has not seen that for a quite a while.

And now that too:

Trump's Dollar Keule = Trumps's Dollar Cudgel(?)
by Ines Zöttl, Washington - Saturday, 05/19/2018

Iran Sanctions: Trump's Dollar Baton

US President Trump wants to force Europe to follow the US with regards to the Iran sanctions - and uses the economic superiority of the dollar for that purpose. But with this brute force policy he endangers the economic dominance of his country.

The statesmanlike pose of the president lasted only a breath. The most important thing for him is peace, ideally "around the world," said Donald Trump at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in the White House Cabinet. But then he started the furious tirade against the Europeans who dare to stand up to the US in Iran sanctions. "The European Union was terrible to us with regard to trade," he scolded. "They treat us as badly as they could handle us."

The European-American relations are as far away from international understanding as they haven't been for a long time. With their defiant decision to stick to the US nuclear deal with Iran, the 28 EU governments have declared a fight against Trump. But the US president refused to pick up the gauntlet last Thursday. "Greetings to Jean-Claude," he condescendingly acknowledged the announcement by EU Commission of President Juncker to reactivate the 1996 Blocking Statute, which would ban Europe's economy from participating in US sanctions.

The US feels superior - and so it is: The world's largest economy, a market with more than 300 million consumers, home to the leading stock exchanges, and the charts showing the dollar as the world currency, handling 40 percent of all international payments. Who dares to oppose such concentrated economic power?

In fact, the first European companies already started to sing meekly, while Angela Merkel and her colleagues at the summit in Sofia still advised what to do. The French oil company Total announced to stop a billion investment in Iran. This was followed by Maersk, the world's largest container shipping company, which declared Iranian ports the no-go area for their ships.

If you trade with Tehran, you risk trouble

These flight movements should accelerate in the future. Because US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has opened the torture box, in which are contained the instruments with which the US wants to force allegiance. A dozen laws and regulations prohibit just about any deal with Iran that's not about selling bread and butter. The US Government's strongest grip are in the so-called secondary sanctions: Any company that trades in Tehran risks being blacklisted and cut off from all dollar transactions, and in extreme cases even from the American market.

It is a powerful threat. Around 2,000 corporations outside America issue dollar bonds. The dollar debt of the foreign companies amount to five trillion. The dollar is not everything - but for international corporations there is nothing without dollars. "No matter how much they whine, no European or Asian company will opt for a terrorist regime and against the access to the US dollar," notes Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who was once worked on a draft for the sanctions in the US Congress.

Many companies have seen in the past that the US authorities do not take a joke over breaking sanctions. The French bank, BNP Paribas Chart, had to pay almost $ 9 billion in 2014, and Commerzbank Chart was charged $ 1.45 billion in 2015 for doing business for Iranian and Sudanese clients.

Erdogan is powerless too

And it's not just money that is at stake: Last week, a US court sentenced a manager of Turkish Halkbank to 32 months in jail for alleviating Iran sanctions. A condemnation of the banker would be "almost as if the Turkish state were declared a criminal," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had warned furiously before the verdict. That warning has not helped him.

American companies have therefore held back in anticipatory obedience. The head of the world's largest aircraft manufacturer Boeing, Dennis Muilenburg, calmed the analysts already in April. One will deliver no aircraft to Iran for the time being - that at a time when Merkel and France's President Macron still hoped to change the US president. For the three 777 jets that were originally scheduled to go to Iran Air this year, Boeing has been silently looking for other customers.

In Washington, one looks with benevolence that the foreign countries now follow suit. As a precaution, Total did not wait to see if the US Department of State granted them a waiver. One simply could "not afford to be exposed to any sanctions," the management said about a withdrawal. After all, in almost every financing measure of the group (TOTAL) US banks are involved., almost every third share is in American hands According to the Wall Street Journal, Wintershall, a subsidiary of the German concern BASF also let the Iranian partners know that the oil projects were shaky now - one depends on the parent company, which is heavily involved in the chemicals business in the US.

However, there is one factor of uncertainty in the US calculation of bringing the world in line using their sheer economic superiority: China. The emerging market is the largest buyer of Iranian oil and is likely to fiercely oppose shutting down its imports. But to cut off Beijing from the dollar, even Trump will not dare to do. China is the largest foreign lender in the US, a lender that his government, which is headed for a record US debt, urgently needs.

"China is a bit tired of being pushed around by the US," says Philip Nichols, a professor at Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. So the leadership in Beijing could risk a fight for powerl with Trump - and thus promote their own economic goals. For a long time, the Chinese are working to build the yuan as the world currency. In March, they launched the first yuan futures contract on crude oil, an attempt to rival the dollar as a global oil trading currency.

So far, that is wishful thinking. But the reckless US action in the Iran conflict should increase the readiness of many states to seek alternatives to the overpowering US financial system. Not least, America's economic status is based on the trust that investors place in the US government around the world. This trust continues to falter with Trump's arbitrary policy. The British business magazine "Economist" is already convinced: "Mr. Trump has certainly brought the day closer to where China handles global payments in Yuan."

Just so for fun, I thought you might want to read how the German "Der Spiegel" edition and its author crews write about Merkel, Putin, Iran Sanctions and Trump etc.

Share
up
0 users have voted.

Comments

but I do get bullies and thugs. Someone needs to destroy the empire and create some of the good ol' competition the money men can't preach enough. I do appreciate the news from Germany. Better than the fucking royal wedding we get here.

up
0 users have voted.

"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

mimi's picture

@dkmich
... the bride has as very open and cute smile, so everything is forgiven, but more than five minutes I can't look at it as well.

up
0 users have voted.

his Iranian tantrum could seriously damage him.

The white rose bouquet was a nice gesture. Possibly a reference to the brave members of the Society of the White Rose, who lost their lives opposing the Nazis in the 1940s?

Does Trump think he was elected President of Europe as well as the USA?

Forgive my cynicism, but I am inclined to think that the execs of companies like Total and Maersk want to be able to party in the Hamptons and walk down 5th Ave. and their wives want to vacation and shop in the USA, where they can freely insult and bully the black, brown, and white Americans who have to wait on them.

up
0 users have voted.

Mary Bennett

mimi's picture

@Nastarana @Nastarana
oh, that thought never came up in my mind. Nah, I think it's just a "gentleman-style" of gesture that usually is not done that way under politicians in public. Heh, no biggy. Just nice roses and some shy smiles between two political kiddos.
Smile

up
0 users have voted.
Azazello's picture

up
0 users have voted.

We wanted decent healthcare, a living wage and free college.
The Democrats gave us Biden and war instead.

mimi's picture

Your translations have the ring of truth throughout.

up
0 users have voted.
Bisbonian's picture

@Linda Wood , and very readable, as well, Mimi.

up
0 users have voted.

"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

k9disc's picture

Banksters can go to jail?

And it's not just money that is at stake: Last week, a US court sentenced a manager of Turkish Halkbank to 32 months in jail for alleviating Iran sanctions. A condemnation of the banker would be "almost as if the Turkish state were declared a criminal," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had warned furiously before the verdict. That warning has not helped him.

All they have to do is stand up to Dollar Hegemony and they face prison time.

Something tells me that is good to know.

up
0 users have voted.

“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

CB's picture

up
0 users have voted.
mimi's picture

@CB
together with the article "Good Bye, Europe". Sad enough.

up
0 users have voted.
CB's picture

EAEU is a political and economic union of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia that also has economic ties to China, Iran and Vietnam.

EAEU signs free trade deal with Iran, cooperative agreement with China

Russia, China, Iran, and the EAEU countries develop economic cooperation while America continues to pursue economic isolation

YEREVAN, MAY 17, ARMENPRESS. The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran on May 17 signed a provisional free trade zone agreement during the Astana economic forum, TASS reports.

“The current agreement includes an initial list of goods with lowered or cancelled customs fees upon its enforcement. The agreement covers half of mutual trade”, Tigran Sargsyan, chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), said, adding that in 2017 trade between the EAEU and Iran reached 2.7 billion US dollars.
...
The list for the EAEU includes meat and fat-and-oil products, certain types of confectioneries and chocolate, cosmetics, electronic and mechanical equipment. Iran will enjoy tariff preferences on vegetables, fruits, dried fruits and building materials.
...
Also at the economic summit, China signed off on a trade and economic cooperation agreement with EAEU members, boosting exports of EAEU goods to China.
...
The agreement is aimed at improving the access of goods to the Chinese market through regulations on limiting trade procedures, raising the level of transparency and boosting the level of cooperation in all trade spheres.
...

up
0 users have voted.
CB's picture

Germany will ‘fight’ for its interests in face of Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, says Economic Minister
...
America’s foreign policy is enacting an approach that sees the world as a global chess game, and every other player is viewed as an opponent to be bested, a game where America wins at the loss of everyone else, the ‘better end of the deal’. It’s completely different from the party line that Washington has put forward for decades, where fairness, equality, and respect were put forward as motivating factors for international activities and agreements, even if, oftentimes, America still acted like it was purely out to advance its own interests. America still put on a nice face with nice words as a costume for their self interested global influence.

Today, American actions haven’t really changed all that much, in a way, but what has changed is the philosophy that it overtly advances. Now, under President Donald Trump, it brazenly tells the world that America will do and get what it wants, and everyone else must be good little boys and girls and play along, even if it means that they will lose. In Trump’s mind, it’s called ‘winning’, and in order to win, someone must lose.
...
Those shared values, that Europe and America are supposed to uphold together, along with economic and security cooperation, are what cement the friendship and partnership between Europe and America.

America, however, is disrupting each of these with its latest actions, between a shared vision of multilateralism, perceiving political, rather than military, means of resolving conflict and establishing cooperation and prosperity, to ensuring security against potential threats, to economic cooperation. America, not Syria, Iran, Russia, or Islamic extremists, right now is making itself the single biggest threat to each of these
...
The end goals to be accomplished, as envisioned by the Europeans and the Americans are increasingly digressing, and even opposing, whereas the number of shared interests between the Europeans and the Russians, on the other hand, are increasingly converging, whether it is a peaceful, political resolution to the conflicts going on in Syria or the Ukraine, to energy cooperation, to security interests meaning keeping a lid on nuclear proliferation and shared market accesses, to commonly battling the economic barriers that America is erecting. While Europe is discovering that it need to find its own path in the world, that path is leading farther away from America, and lining up a little closer with those on the other side of the Baltic.
...

Meanwhile, Russia and China are concluding more win-win economic deals on a global scale, greatly helped by America's zero sum political and economic policies. Trump, with his "Art of the Deal", winner-take-all huckstering is a fitting president to go down with the US ship - the "ugly American" personified.

up
0 users have voted.
Alligator Ed's picture

@CB

America’s foreign policy is enacting an approach that sees the world as a global chess game, and every other player is viewed as an opponent to be bested, a game where America wins at the loss of everyone else, the ‘better end of the deal’. It’s completely different from the party line that Washington has put forward for decades, where fairness, equality, and respect were put forward as motivating factors for international activities and agreements, even if, oftentimes, America still acted like it was purely out to advance its own interests. America still put on a nice face with nice words as a costume for their self interested global influence.

My understanding of that paragraph is consistent with full endorsement of international trade deals such as TPP, the benefactors of which are international elites, not the 99%ers in the countries affected. What the elite mean by "play fair" is don't challenge the elites. This is a zero sum game for 99% of the population internationally. The elites reap the benefit with all their "fair trade" bullcrap. Let them be enraged.

up
0 users have voted.
Alligator Ed's picture

The cautious German elite, led by Merkel with her preference for compromise in any situation, has been holding back the anti-American sentiment so far. But that position may become untenable as Germans realize their country isn’t getting much out of being a U.S. ally. A majority can’t imagine a situation in which U.S. soldiers would need to defend Germany against aggression, and as the values gap with the U.S. grows and the economic benefits of partnership shrink, anti-Americanism can become an increasingly attractive political card to play.

Germany has done the U.S. a favor by not seeking a leadership role in the decades since its reunification. There’s no guarantee, however, that post-Merkel it won’t take a more assertive stance, using the European Union as a vehicle for its ambition. Even if a post-Trump U.S. government walks back some of his unilateralism, the mistrust that’s been building up for years won’t go away overnight.

Although the Germans correctly perceive economic advantage in dealing with Russia, primarily energy, are they so confident that Russia will be a benign actor and not resume their part of the cold war, so cleverly initiated by hysterical Democrats? Absent nuclear weapons usage, the Russian military will clean our clock. Not necessary now to go into details, but the Russians have completely neutralized our surface fleet with EMP and supersonic torpedoes. The Germans know this, the French know this, the Poles know this.

Anti-Americanism is a badge forged proudly by Reagan, GHWB, Bubba, Dubya, and the empty suit. It is unfair to unilaterally blame the Orange One for deeds abuilding since Saint Ronnie was POTUS.

up
0 users have voted.