A New Time Bomb Facing US Workers
As part of my trying to bridge a greater understanding about those who proclaim themselves as conservatives, I have begun following a couple of You Tubers recently. I am of the firm belief that most people have far more in common than we have differences. As is often the case, our solutions may vary, but we first must agree on the problems. And I am finding that there is much for us to agree upon as far as the problems we face today.
One of the people I follow is a man who has spoken of many things that we may have in common. In a recent video, he made a comment that the United States workforce will lose about 40 million jobs by the year 2030 due mainly to automation. Further,those jobs will not be replaced by other jobs such as was the case when agricultural jobs were replaced by jobs in manufacturing. I found that the number he quoted as astounding so I decided to do a little research.
If you choose to watch this video linked below, keep in mind that the You Tuber who postd this is a conservative.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PfQ_ay2YPc]
In 2010, there were over 157 million people in the workforce according to Department of Labor statistics. For the sake of simplicity, I will round this off to 160 million which probably is lower but closer to the real number of persons either working or searching for work. If in just twelve years, 40 million jobs will permanently disappear, that means a loss of 25% of all jobs in the United States. And Forbes is predicting even worse numbers, with up to 73 million jobs lost.
What we are looking at is an extreme economic and social phenomenon that is going to hit the United States like a ton of bricks. It is going to affect every one of us, regardless of our own current economic security or insecurity.
Comments
Accidental click (n/t)
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Congratulations, gulfgal, for looking outside the comfort zone
Figures on labor force contraction/expansion are always dubious.
Many differences between real jobs and make believe jobs are semantic.
This video with Richard Wolff and Chris Hedges explains some of the confusion. Note, most of this 28 minute video actually relates to the ever-nearer capitalistic collapse. Automation will do us workers in, but austerity-driven poverty is driving us into extinction faster. Malthusian solutions will be talked of more and more as our social safety net collapses make this population shrinking inevitability more apparent.
This is what I found interesting
When capitalism appeared to benefit all of us, it was difficult for those who were actually doing okay to debate the negative effects of capitalism. Now that we are in the end stages of this parasitic economic system, even those who previously were doing all right are now seeing how harmful it is to society and to all of us other than those at the top.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
“Previously doing alright” is a large group
I see automation replacing a lot of middle class knowledge work jobs via pattern recognition software systems (radiology, legal work, investment advice). Infrastructure to build such systems is rapidly becoming a commodity, and I expect we will soon reach the point where they are easier to deploy than custom built robotic systems.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
You are correct
It is very frightening to think that we could lose between 25% and 40+% of all jobs in this country with no alternative jobs available for those displaced workers.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
The training data was stolen
From the workers being replaced. Every time a radiologist tags a digital film, they are giving away training data for Watson and TensorFlow systems. Just another example of people giving away valuable data due to a toxic mixture of ignorance and economic coercion.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Arrgghh! Double post...my fault (n/t)
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Well, on the one hand he seems to support the bullshit
from Trump about trade being responsible for the loss of most manufacturing jobs, which is not true, but he does recognize that automation is becoming an increasing problem relative to jobs. Which isn't new by any means, many have been estimating and predicting the number of jobs that will be lost to automation in the coming decades and it's not a pretty picture. It does point to an existential problem for the serfs, particularly if we allow the rich to continue to rule over us. Course, if we stop allowing that then we won't be serfs or whatever the appropriate term might be for most of us right now.
He claims that no one is talking about it which isn't true but certainly very few are and no one in national government circles outside of some analysts at some government agency. But relative to planning, etc., Congress will never do that. The U.S. has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs this century alone to automation.
Obviously, our federal government and the Congress/President that controls it are not going to do a damn thing because they represent the oligarchy and the very rich. Like the ever increasing wealth inequality, it's another issue (in a long line) that can't be solved unless We the Serfs can free ourselves from the bondage of rule by the rich.
I think that automation
The issue we must face is the social costs of those jobs that are being lost.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Rate of change is key
The speed at which we can automate will soon be shorter than the retraining time for humans.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Not to mention -
retraining of humans for what?
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
For any new job descriptions
In the past one could plausibly claim that technology would create new jobs as it destroyed old ones and the retraining that the neoliberals bang on about would work out. But when you realize that the second version of alpha go was trained in a week from nothing but the game rules to being able to defeat the previous computer champion that had beaten all humans after being trained on records of human games, well it’s not looking good for the humans.
One week versus a lifetime of study. And people are supposed to retrain to complete with that in a time frame measured in years and a cost of several years of median income?
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
I'm a believer in a jobs program instead of basic income
Much of our self worth is based on our work and sense of meaning. There's so much we need to do.... infrastructure, green energy, public works like parks and schools, reforestation and environmental mitigation, and on and on....
There's work if we fund the jobs. FDR did, we could too. Instead we waste our fortune on oil and foreign war. It is absolutely insane, but it seems our path. Can we change our focus?
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Actually,
most notable of which was in Canada in the 1970's.
I believe in both. There have been experiments done with a guaranteed income that have been very successful, theDo I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
The Canadian example was
closer to my minimum income guarantee proposal than Basic Income. Raising the income of a small proporrtion of people to the bottom of the middle class would obviously have no effect on prices. Raising everyone's income will only fuel rapid inflation, increase inequality as the rich soak up all the new income, and do nothing to alleviate the oncoming mass unemployment. In fact, if the inflation comes before the unemployment it will make things worse. And that's not counting the pollution and garbage overconsumption will cause.
On to Biden since 1973
@doh1304
The minimum income guarantee makes much more sense - as long as it provides a living income. I've seen suggestions of $500 - $700 suggested to also replace welfare, disability and pensions. And I'll tell you right now that you cannot remotely survive, never mind have a good diet, clothes or essential personal care products, on $750 a month in Canada. Sooner or later, my rags will fall off me and I'll have a nice prison suit for inadvertent indecent exposure, lol.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
The gig economy is already killing people
Chris Hedges talks about how Uber is killing the taxi industry and how taxi drivers are killing themselves because they can't make their living anymore. Google and others are going to kill Uber and then the trucking industry with their self driving trucks. He also speaks about how the unions have been captured and are being destroyed. Good thing that the teachers are going out on strike and telling their reps that they have had quite enough of their bullshitiing and reducing corporate taxes and starving the rest of the states. The democrats used to defend the unions, but that ship has sailed along with so many other ships.
The Gig Economy
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
Sadly
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Ayup. The self driving vehicles are going
to put a lot of people out of work. I don't understand why they thought it was a good idea to asset strip the country. If no one is working then how are they going to be able to buy their products?
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
By raising the income of people in China and India
It will only work for a generation at best, but that'll be their grandkid's problem. The rich have no qualms about eating their young.
On to Biden since 1973
Today's CEO has no worry about this
although one would think that to be the most reasonable question
their stock price is all that matter's, everything else is quite
irrelevant to the idiots.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
It's even worse than just "stock price"
It's "quarterly results". So it's a very short-term view of stock price. In other words, the entire system is setup to promote and incentivize short-term profit taking.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
Yes I agree, forgot to mention
cuz we paid less in taxes and stock buybacks, the
whole WS markit system only works for CEOs and WS.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
Submitted for your consideration:
A potential counterpoint. Admittedly, it is from 2011.
https://industrytoday.com/article/us-industry-be-ready-for-a-manufacturi...
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
The problem is the same regardless of the industry.
Those jobs in the "great manufacturing boom" all pay around 10.00 hour. Compare that to when workers in the automotive industry and its supplier companies made 3 or 4xs that with full benefits and a pension. They supported a household with one worker and paid for their kid's college. The jobs they can't fill are either 1)low skilled shit jobs with no pay and no benefits, 2) highly skilled jobs for the highly educated with wages being undermined by H1B visa program, or 3) skilled jobs that they won't train people for unless they are young and have college level math skills.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
I read the article
I have not done this essay the kind of justice it deserves because of the time necessary to do more background research which is due to our expecting out of town company later this week. I hope to do more in depth research and writing on this topic some time next week. Perhaps then some of the information provided in your link can be better addressed.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I am a firm believer in the unintended consequences
(sorry for my inappropriate language, I am too frustrated to still have control over my manners)
the strength of the human spirit to solve problems for their own good and the compassion to chase away the evil-doers on time. We go through shit and then compost it. Technology has become your enemy and so the technology will be fought against. Mr Uber will be Mr Under and Mr. Musks's self-driving cars will run over Mr. Musk and kill him.
Elon Musk Sends April Fools' Tweets Joking of Tesla Bankruptcy
He is such a fool that he doesn't know he is a bankrupt soulless human being already. At least one day of the year he seems to 'get' it.
We will always have to work and we like to work, because it gives us meaning and independence, done right. And I like to drive my frigging car, I don't have, by myself. Mr. Musk you can stick your cars where the sun doesn't shine.
Gosh, those technophil
maniacssmarty pants get on my nerves. I will go Amish. That's the only path forward.https://www.euronews.com/live
Yes, the Amish have the right idea
I am a firm believer in technology
I'll be the first to say that most of the technological "advancement" of the 21st Century feels in many ways like a qualitative downgrade from the 1980s and 1990s, but blame the businessmen - and the consumers - for that. A certain amount of "Back To The Future" sounds good at this point (Facebook and Twitter should be shut down as public health menaces, streaming entertainment is too much of a good thing, and having to download all computer games from online and no longer getting to buy them in stores in boxes with manuals that are works of art in themselves is, for me, a heartbreaking personal loss) but good heavens, "going Amish" is not "going forward".
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Modified Amish
The climate will force a return to the Amish. Hopefully some good tech stuff will remain.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
Mr. Liberal Moonbat, sometimes I try to tease a little
I am sorry that it didn't get through to you (or may you just pretend to not understand).I have nothing against the Amish, some things they do is even smart, but heck, that's the way I talk to exaggerate a point. I also don't need to go forward necessarily. I like to some curved pathways too.
Up to the late nineties I have never been against technology per se and certainly not against science, not at all, and I am still very appreciative of many technological and scientific advancements.
I just don't like the internet technology and much of it I consider superfluous and destructive. I also could live without nuclear technology and forget about weapon technologies. YMMV.
Why do I have the feeling you test, play and fool me a little here? Ok, if you have fun with it, go ahead. I don't want to spoil it for you.
https://www.euronews.com/live
I took you seriously; mea culpa
Here's Tim Berners-Lee and others on the subject: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/tim-berners-lee
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
ok, sorry for misunderstanding you,
I read the article you linked. There is something in it I don't believe in (anymore).
but with this I agree:
So how does Mr. Tim Berner Lee think ordinary people can accomplish that? He seems to have a lot of hope into the ingenuity of ordinary people.
It's a pretty self-congratulationary piece. But then I admit he deserves it. He is still believing in the "openness" of underlying source code to be the savior of it all.
The ordinary people can't do the upgrades. It's a small group of coders, who can. Ordinary people are dependent on them. My first experience with open source programming coders was one of complete dependency on them. Ordinary people can't all become skilled programmers to ensure their own independence. (May be it's just me, who can't, and all others are genius minds)
All in all, he still believes in what he believed in 25 years ago. I don't blame him for it, he knows what he was doing. But I think he is overly optimistic believing that ordinary people will be able to control the web to function towards their own public good. I think he might stick to those convictions to calm his own doubts.
I mean, I was a believer in Open Source software in the beginning. Later it was beyond my paygrade. Today it's beyond my hopes the www serves us with what he advertised, ie decentralisation, openness, inclusion, privacy, free expression and security. I think all of that is under threat and not anymore the case. Let's say I just am not a believer in
Santa Clausthe www anymore.https://www.euronews.com/live
Lol, no kidding he's decades behind! HTTP???
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Who is behind? Tim Berner-Lee is the father of the www
and he invented the technology and code for the html (Hypertext Mark-Up language}, the URLs and link code for http (hypertext transfer protocol) in 1989. Without him there wouldn't be a world wide web. He is the one of the three most important people in the creation of the world wide web's functions. The other two were Vint Cerf and Robert E. Kahn, who invented the TCP/IP protocol way back in the 1970ies, without it there wouldn't be any internet at all. Kudos are appropriate to all three of them. None of them were 'behind' ... the thought makes me laugh.
As for Tim Berner-Lee:
History of the Web
The article liberal moonbat posted was a review and a celebatory article about Tim Berner-Lee's inventions written 25 years later, as to celebrate the achievements of Tim Berner-Lee code. The article was written in the "Wired" magazine as a kind of memorial laudatio for the 25th birthday of the world wide web.
You know, Ellen, Tim Berner-Lee was the good guy... you couldn't have all the fun with the internet you enjoy daily without him. Give him a hug.
https://www.euronews.com/live
Thanks!
Actually, I was referring to the fact that everyone uses HTTPS now; FF gives me dire warnings abut places still on https as not being secure.
Edit: and thought it was something current which had been recently written.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
oh, ok, sorry, my bad for not understanding your comment
it's hard to follow sometimes for me to understand what is said and related to what.
https://www.euronews.com/live
redacted - double post /nt
https://www.euronews.com/live
redacted - double post /nt
https://www.euronews.com/live
redacted - triple monster hit again /nt
https://www.euronews.com/live
Just admiring your phrasing.
Perhaps this, especially.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
As someone who has lived in the motor city her entire life,
NAFTA, capitalism's greed for more and more and bigger and bigger profits, and the arrogance of Silicon Valley tech types did destroy manufacturing in the USA. I remember Bubba and his feds telling everyone to learn computers. As if any of those big tech companies were going to hire manufacturing types to work in their hermetically sealed offices without at least four related degrees and six years of specifically related experience. H1B visa is decimating IT and customer service workers in the USA. Someone has to maintain, install, repair, and guard every damn thing they create and implement. That means more people from India.
A simple trade policy of "make it and service it here or pay to bring it in" would do wonders for American workers.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
I don't think we even look at this rationally
Jobs, work, capitalism is just another religion. Anything different is heresy. We all subscribe at some level to the atrocities committed in the name of this public/private partnership called "the economy", of the "value" and "worth" it assigns us all our lives.
The losers left behind by this machine called capitalism are the unworthy, that fell due to their own failure of luck and "work ethic", and when there are too many of them we "can't afford" to help them. Even churches, hospitals, governments and schools run on "business models" for "tax purposes", the handshake of democracy and capitalism.
The criminals who make capitalism dance for them rarely are punished for the misery and harm they do to others. Perhaps these savants should be screened and banned from participating in the "economy" or government due to the power to alter society in pursuit of wealth.
Capitalism shapes every institution and transaction that we have known from cradle to grave. Any human rights we have are always subservient to capitalism. We are all free to be homeless and starve. The biggest modifier of justice is "how much can you afford?" We bitch about how our politicians vote, but understand completely the transactional nature of "campaign donations" and votes, and are powerless to change it. In the end capitalism will modify itself to whatever circumstances present, even war. I used to think that war would dampen this virtue of greed, but it seem to be a just reshuffle the deck, a new batch of opportunities to make fortunes.
So far every analysis of the future of the economy and capitalism, and any remedies for the harm it will do has been wrong. The only thing that holds true now is that capitalism and it's harms will prevail.
I so agree with this.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Thank you
Then there is the aspect of who we are, and how much of this economic mutation has changed us after centuries of exposure. Somehow it feels we have become domesticated to it, much as dogs became domesticated. We get our treats and rewards, or not, and hope at our end we will not suffer seeing our masters take what little we have before we die.
Capitalism is the worst form of automation, a machine that must keep growing to exist, chewing up our planet to fabricate trinkets in exchange for metal or paper, to buy power. And for what? Right now it seems to be wealthy enough to buy your way into space, to escape what you created.
I believe our masters have taken a system that wasn't
so their ego's could be fed. Amazon prospers by not paying
taxes, UBER prospers by not having regulations, MSFT prospers
by being a monopoly.
Once anti-trust stopped being used against corporations unions
suffered, jobs were shipped and the amerikan dream went to
film only, our children and their children will never mention
the "americkan dream" with any fondess unless they win the lotto.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
I think you are right (thinking hard)
I also agree . . .
The whole paradigm is messed up, and yes, it is a religion. I remember way back in the 80s when we started to hear, "schools should be run like a business."
A couple of points.
Not sure how this should evolve where I am. My neighbor and I have been fighting the windmills as gardeners for 20 years out here, but I think we have finally found the golden ticket. We both anticipate a giant harvest, bar some natural disaster.
I don't remember where I saw it, but read some article about an organization in Austin, TX that takes donations of garden veggies to feed the hungry.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
Resilience
Transition Movement that started in England and has been slowly spreading around the world. I first learned about it during Occupy Tallahassee when we had speakers who were trying to get it started in Tallahassee.
Resilience reminds me of theDo I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
resilience.org has several articles at the moment about
The Transition Movement. Thanks for the link!
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
I completely agree with you
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I did
The key, in my humble opinion,
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
The types of jobs available has been changing since
the start of the industrial revolution. Yesterday I was youtube watching these fascinating interviews of older people, recorded in 1929. One person, close to a hundred years old, was a former stagecoach driver, showing off a stagecoach he use to drive. But watching it impressed on that we have a false sense of permanence of job types when no type of job has seemed to last more than a couple of generations over the course of the last 2 centuries. Here is one of the videos I was watching, I'm not sure if it contains the stagecoach driver interview:
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FE30a4J38Q]
Beware the bullshit factories.
Fascinating!
What a good print it is. Beautiful. And among the many things of interest for me were the dialects, especially the one of the woman in Georgia. Thank you so much.
That Georgia accent
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
These are good prints
It almost looks like they are people today dressed up in costume.
Beware the bullshit factories.
This is awesome
Here's a really cool video from a speakeasy during prohibition
At least I think it's a speakeasy and this is definitely during prohibition. I'm still amazed 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the state legislatures passed an amendment to ban alcohol.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0QprSZ06hU]
Edit: Darn this isn't the video I was thinking of in which a couple of guys are making jokes, in between sips, about drinking being illegal. Sorry for the thread distraction.
Beware the bullshit factories.
It's all good
On a lighter note somewhere there's a talkie of one of the last Civil War Veterans reunions with actual rebels doing a rebel yell.
There is another segment with a stagecoach
I don't know if this is the one you recalled, but it is also worth viewing if you liked the first one:
1928-1930: More Interviews With Elderly People Throughout The US
Yes that's the video I recalled
Thank you. I imagine there were a lot of stage coach drivers forced to find other jobs.
Beware the bullshit factories.
Thanks! That's really cool!
Please note that prior to (edit: todays types and levels of) pollution, people who had access to decent food and conditions were well enough to dance at an age when many now are waiting for their next hip replacement and even the young are being stricken with the predicted wave of 'dementia', which now covers a bad memory, and much of which I attribute to such as bad available factory farm nutrition, the flood of 'cost-cutting'/lucrative/expedient industrial toxins - including neurotoxins - to which we are being subjected, and in which I'll include toxic and sometimes brain-shrinking pharma meds too-often prescribed to the elderly for 'off-label' uses, excessive stress due to helplessness and imposed conditions and a host of other unnecessary issues all relating to excessive profiteering and control-freakery for the benefit of a relative few.
On the plus side, we do have decent central heating, plumbing and internet, but I suspect that we could have had those without the high levels of the increasingly rapidly fatal down sides, drat it!
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.