This is what I was afraid of
Remember how Republicans turned out to vote in the primaries, and Democrats didn't?
Despite her tight race with Socialist Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton received 1,019,237 fewer votes this year than in 2008.
DEMOCRAT PARTY TURNOUT–
** In 2008 there were 38,111,341 Democrat votes in the primary. In 2016 there were 29,939,251 votes. A net decrease of 8,172,090 (-21%).REPUBLICAN PARTY TURNOUT–
** In 2012 there were 19,214,513 Republican votes in the primary. In 2016 there were 31,108,968 votes. A net increase of 11,894,455 (+62%).Republicans had 1.1 million more primary voters this year than the Democratic party.
These are stunning numbers!
Remember how over at TOP they told us that this didn't matter? That it didn't reflect an enthusiasm gap, even when the polls said there was an enthusiasm gap?
Remember how we were told that it would not effect the general election?
Well, riddle me this Batman?
A review of registration figures shows that in the swing states that sign up voters by party, Republicans are seeing a significantly bigger boost since 2012. In states like Florida and Pennsylvania, the party has added tens of thousands of voters to the rolls at a time when Democrats have seen their base shrink.
“The numbers [in those states] … are a huge shift from what we’ve seen in 2012,” Republican National Committee spokeswoman Lindsay Walters said....
And in big swing states ranging from Florida to North Carolina to Pennsylvania, there are still more registered Democrats than Republicans.
But the registration shift since 2012 suggests Trump will enjoy a stronger base of GOP voters in some states than did Mitt Romney four years ago.
In Florida, numbers from the secretary of state show Republicans gained 162,000 voters since 2012; Democrats lost nearly 137,000.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans gained 40,000 voters; Democrats lost 178,000.
And in North Carolina, both parties lost members as the number of unaffiliated voters rose. But Democrats lost far more than Republicans in the last four years.
Not all states register voters by party, but a review of eight states that do – Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – showed Democrats since 2012 signed up more than Republicans only in Arizona and Colorado.
Hillary still leads in most polls, but only by percentages of less than the margin of error.
I know that people at TOP swoon over minority voters and despise older white voters, but the fact is that in election after election, older whites voters turn out at the polls while minorities often don't.
That's not racism. That's just the way things are. I wish it wasn't that way.
So if Hillary only has a 2 point lead, it's the same as having no lead.
Gee, ya think it might have been a better idea for the DNC to not rig the nomination for Hillary?
Maybe, just maybe we might be better off if the Dems had allowed the voters to nominate a candidate that Independents didn't despise?
Maybe like, oh, Bernie Sanders for instance?
Comments
Whatever evil D. Trump may have in store for us, I doubt it will
be War. Trump's military policy speech
What about his emphasis on the military? As if her Heinous doesn't? What about his plans to increase the size of the military? Although he did give numbers of soldiers and weapons he thinks might be needed under his administration (and one about which I am not knowledgable enough to accept or refute), he did make a good point, if true, that by getting out of Iraq and the heroin supplier to the world, Afghanistan, despite his military build-up, we would save $7 trillion dollars--enough to notably build up the military to his desired levels but also spending a good chunk of that on rebuilding domestic infrastructure.
Hillary says--well, who the Hell cares what she says, because she always lies?
Trump has his coterie of Admirals and Generals but Hillary has PNAC, Kagan, and guest star Henry Fucking Killinger.
Who's better on military? Don't know, but there never was a war Killary didn't like. Only question is, as Michael Moore put it, "where to invade next?"
What about "take the oil?" Oh, shame on you, Donald for saying outloud what has been going on for decades, except every President has lied about. Why Kuwait? Oil. Why Iraq? Oil. Why Afghanistan? Oil (and maybe smack). Why Syria? Oil Pipeline. Why Venezuela? Oil.
Don't get the idea that I am pro-Trump. It's Jill, not Hill, for me.
conversely.......
The converse situations back that up.
Why didn't the US come crashing in to rescue the people of Tibet from their Chinese conquerors? No Oil.
It does seem that one's so-called "freedoms" become more valuable to the US if one has Oil under one's feet.......
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Why didn’t Grover Cleveland rescue the people of Hawaii
from their American coup plotters and conquerors? Sugar, but no oil.
There are explanations for the turnout figures
The 2012 Republican primary turnout figure was artificially low because Mitt Romney was a boring candidate running without serious opposition. Note however that he got a roughly average Republican turnout in the general. In 2016 Trump was an exciting candidate who energized new (racist and anti-stablishment) voters, and he faced stiff opposition from the Republican establishment. (though the non Trump candidates were also loathsome)
In 2016 the Democratic primary turnout was artificially low relative to 2008 because of several factors. Early in the primary Bernie was an unknown in the south. Few people voted until Bernie built up a head of steam. Bernie's strength was disproportionately among independent voters, who were not allowed to vote in many states. Like in the early, southern primaries later, northern and western states were effectively uncontested. (Bernie's victories were often in the 65 - 35 range, and the voters knew it before primary day) Then there's the 600 lb gorilla - vote fraud and suppression. (for example in CA 1 or 2 million votes were not counted) Hillary, otoh, was (is) even more uninspiring (in fact loathsome) than Romney was, and she is burdened with the legacy of 8 years of Democratic disappointment. To simplify, no one voted for Hillary, no one was allowed to vote for Bernie, (and if they did their vote wasn't counted) and after Obama no one wants to vote democratic.
On to Biden since 1973
What we said at
TOP. That HRC's lack of anything remotefully resembling charisma would not help her candidacy. "But Wink, she doesn't need no stinkin' charisma, it's her turn!" Ahh. How could I forget?
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Weakest democrat nominee since Dukakis.
Now all we need is a shot of her with her head sticking out of a tank. smh
The real SparkyGump has passed. It was an honor being your human.
She's worse than Dukakis.
He was only despised. She's despised, hated, and distrusted.
Those views are entrenched.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Why did Democrats despise him?
(This is not a trick question: I simply don't know.)
He let himself be painted as a wimp
'Murkins hate wimps.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Well, in this case, he did it in a really effing STUPID way
that not only, likely, lost the election for him but also set up 30 years of "liberal=bad."
"I'm not a liberal, I'm not I'm not I'm not!"
Look, even if that's true--and I guess in some ways it was--you don't say that in a debate against a Republican whose entire attack appears to be [INSERT whiny George H.W. voice here] "You're a liberal. You're a liberal. You're a liberal."
To (in an apparent panic) respond to that with "I'm not a liberal! I'm not!" screws over not only you but every liberal trying to get any political power in this country.
Yeah, I'm still kind of pissed at him.
He was my first (presidential) vote.
I should write a memoir: From Dukakis to Clinton: a Journey Through the Most Demoralizing Shit Ever Passed Off As Politics
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I'd read that memoir! You may not be giving the DLC,
incorporated in 1985, Reagan's popularity and other factors enough "credit" for both taking the Party to the right and for Dukakis's campaign strategy.
I was not aware that Dukakis ran on "I'm not a liberal." I just read his wiki. As a politician, he was indeed a mixed bag.
In a bit of irony, he gave an ironclad guaranty of "no new taxes" when ran for Governor and then broke that promise after election, paralleling Bush 41, who infamously did the same after he defeated Dukakis.
I guess it depends upon one's prism.
IMO, sticking to opposing the death penalty, even when they put his wife in the hypothetical, was gutsy, not weak. But, you did not say that he was weak. You said that he allowed himself to be painted as weak. I understand the distinction.
They don't need no stinkin' voters.
Take a look at the "Republicans purge voters" diary that went up a little while ago, to see the way the Repubs are contesting the election with Hillary Clinton.
At this point, it's basically a race as to who can strip-and-flip the vote the best.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Hill weaker than Dukakis
All Dukakis did was throw his wife, Kitty, under the bus. Hill, if not for Comey, Lynch, and Obama, would have been indicted, tried, and jailed. Also, Dukakis didn't violate national security laws or blow up the Middle East. Yuuuuge difference.
Have y'all seen this ?
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msiBZwqLhzA]
We wanted decent healthcare, a living wage and free college.
The Democrats gave us Biden and war instead.
Most of the things he said about Trump are true of Hillary,
in my opinion. He's funny, but the idea that Trump is psychotic and Hillary is merely "unlikeable" does not ring true to me, at least not the "merely" part. I think she is psychotic, too.
Electing a POTUS means electing a chief executive officer of my country and the commander in chief of the US military. if my choice is between a psychopath and someone who merely failed to win Ms Congeniality, I would work my heart out for the latter. The reason I don't is that I believe that Hillary is a psychopath, too, albeit a very different kind that Donald.
The only thing that
saves HRC is Donald Trump. And a weak Repub field. And voters having nowhere else to go. (Sorry, Greens, but most Dems don't consider Green an option). But even with that "advantage," HRC still could end up losing this thing. Amazing.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
We'll have to wait to see how it all unfolds
and I readily admit I didn't count wholesale election fraud in my calculations.
But I have always said that this will come down to battle of the bases. Those who have drunk the kool-aid will vote and getting out the vote will be key among those constituents. The independents and more independently minded are likely to be unenthusiastic.
What I was told is that there is no such thing as an independent.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
TOP, white males, absolute numbers
The democratic party is a coalition of various voters which includes white males. Yes, Obama got 35% of white male voters, but those voters are still needed for a coalition victory. One poster responded to me doing some numbers (which didn't seem stat magic), that in 2008, the 35% of white male voters for Obama exceed all African Americans who voted in absolute value. I think what was lost in a lot of TOP posts that white male votes don't count is that percentages matter more than absolute numbers. Elections are won on the absolute count, not the percentage count. It doesn't matter if African American voters give Hillary 100% of the vote in the deep South--the total white vote still be greater than the African American vote for the gop candidate.
As Clinton supporters and Clinton herself started up their "identify politics" attacks on Sanders and his supporters, I thought that it may be approaching electoral suicide to alienate, demean, and slander (any) part of the party coalition. There seemed to be this idea by both the owner and true believers that white male voters didn't matter and an electoral victory was possible without them.
It could be in this election as Hillary might pick up disillusioned gop white females, but come the mid terms I would not expect typical voting patterns with a post-Trump gop utterly thrashing the dems (especially if Hillary starts a unpopular war somewhere).
You nailed it, when you said,
This has been the Dem Party strategy for quite a while.
I'd say that 'the Obama Coalition' bore this thesis out (to their minds). FSC was strong with the AA Community, unmarried women (she thought), the professional class (to some extent), and the LGBT Community. From what I've read, the Dem Party Leadership looked to, or hoped that Bernie's campaign could recapture the 'youth,' or millennial vote, which apparently dropped off precipitously after th 2008 election.
Anyhoo, whether this Coalition will win for them again, remains to be seen, I suppose.
Mollie
“I believe in the redemptive powers of a dog’s love. It is in recognition of each dog’s potential to lift the human spirit, and, therefore, to change society for the better, that I fight to make sure every street dog has its day.”
--Stasha Wong, Secretary, Save Our Street Dogs (SOSD)
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Hoping to drive enough white male voters to Her via fear & guilt
Fear of Trump. Guilt just for being white, which equates to privilege.
The DNC has made it's own bed
The DNC has made it's own bed. Vote Green and get a progressive in the WH then we can vote progressives during the mid terms coming up.
So long, and thanks for all the fish
Here is Hillary's campaign--very succinctly put:
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGhd53hV0Z0]
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