Why you shouldn't take Biden's lead in the polls seriously

Joe Biden is the front-runner. So, as Biden's wife suggested, we should all "swallow a bit" and support him.
There's nothing more to say then, right?

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We must be getting closer to the primaries and caucuses, because Joe Biden’s team on Tuesday began the job of lowering expectations. They’re now making the case that the former vice president could still take the nomination even if he doesn’t win in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Say what!?!
Since when does a candidate that is leading in the polls start talking about losing, unless the polls are horsesh*t?

For starters, even the NYT has noticed the Hillary-esque lack of excitement for Biden.

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When Biden was confronted about his tiny crowds, all he could do is refer back to the polls. That strategy has time limits for effectiveness.
And then there is the WashPost, of all papers, which pointed out the obvious.

The point is that eventually some of the candidates that people support will start dropping out. And when they do, the people who support them will need to find a new candidate to back. (Or they might huffily swear off the primary, which is not uncommon.) That trickle of supporters between candidates is an important factor to consider in evaluating the state of the field. After all, you could be leading the pack right now, but if none of your opponents’ supporters likes you, you’re not going to gain ground as the field winnows, which is a problem.

We’re talking to you, Joe Biden.

Damn! It's as if the establishment actually did learn something from 2016.
One thing that stands out in the polls is the collapse of support for Kamala Harris.

After the second Democratic debate, Kamala Harris mocked Tulsi Gabbard for not being a “top-tier” candidate, but a new Economist/YouGov poll shows Harris barely leading Gabbard

At this rate Gabbard might actually finish ahead of Harris. That would be sweet irony.

On the other hand, Harris' decline has a secondary effect. A large percentage of Harris supporters list Warren as their second choice.
Thus Warren is climbing in the polls, and this might continue for a while longer.

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Don't lose heart Bernie supporters, because eventually either Biden or Warren will start fading in the polls, and guess who is the second choice for both Biden and Warren supporters? Bernie.
And those pools of voters is far larger than Harris supporters.

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longtalldrink's picture

The Harris/Warren folks will cling to either of them because (I believe) they are those hard-knot Hillary supporters. You know...the "any vagina will do" crowd?

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Well done is better than well said-Ben Franklin

@longtalldrink
Sanders is a close second with most Dem voters.
And with Trump in office I just don't see any Dem voter going down with their candidate.

Although I will grant you that the fact that most Harris voters have Warren as their #2 choice sure looks like IdPol.

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Wally's picture

Biden may be becoming undone but I don't think the polls should be discounted. He's still considerably ahead of Bernie and Warren in just about every national poll. The other candidates are for all intents now DOA and I think most of them will eventually be supporting Biden, including Warren. Anybody but Bernie will increasingly become their mantra.

There was a very interesting opinion piece in the Chicago Tribune today entitled Break some eggs, Elizabeth Warren: Drop out and back Bernie

Just click on the title.

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@Wally
it's only a matter of time.

Will he collapse early in the primaries like he's done before?
Or will be last long enough to win the nomination, before collapsing against Trump?

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Wally

That would be the smart move for the elites. Obama all over again, except it's about gender instead of race.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

Otherwise, he wouldn't have run.

Or, then again, maybe he is that out of it. But if so, will his 30% polled base notice?

Time will tell. Well, Dogberry will be on the Climare Town Hall any minute now.

Will he be tossed softballs from Cooper Anderson? Or will Cooper turn on him to help out WARren?

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@Wally @Wally he ran, he didn't have any tricks.

I see him as a guy who's just fallen out of a window on the 20th floor. As of the 18th floor, things don't look too bad.

Re Commala: I think I just heard her commit a Bidenism: she was worried that people have "clean water to breathe".

Edit: Forgot -- he did have a few tricks in his 1988 race. Stealing other liberal leaders' speech lines, and even biographical details, without attribution, trying to make them his own. Didn't work -- eventually he got caught.

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Hawkfish's picture

@Wally

When he denied his fund raiser tomorrow was being hosted by a fossil fuel executive.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

@Wally dude sounds some center-right D or R notes. Emphasis on yuk-yukking about EW's Cherokee issue, a favorite attack theme of righties. Interesting too to know that the MSM is "more to the left" than "Democratic activists" and are supposedly currently working to destroy Joe Biden's candidacy. Ah yes, the old Liberal Media. Also we are supposed to be concerned that older, centrist Ds are worried about the leftward trend of the party.

We are supposed to be worried and concerned and do something now before Biden grabs the nom. Aren't we still 5 months out before any voting starts? Wake me up when it's Jan 1 and Biden is still riding high and the MSM is still largely failing to report on Biden's mental decline. Because I believe Joe will be exposed long before then, will likely see his support decline in the polls, might even drop out before IA.

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Wally's picture

@wokkamile

How about yuk yukking Warren's absence at Standing Rock and then her babbling on last night about her being all for Native Americans being ensured of their stewardship of their lands? If that's what she was saying coz she lost me after "sacred lands that are sacred."

And I am altogehter amazed by how much the MSM is looking at Biden's problems although there is always Chuck Todd and friends to call it a matter of endearment or whatever other silliness they are called upon by their corporate masters to riff. We'll see how much his polling numbers go down if at all. I'm not thinking that will happen too radically anytime soon or even anytime during the first coupla months after the new year.

If Biden drops out before Iowa, I promise to find some way to embarrass myself and I'll let you know how it turns out.

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OzoneTom's picture

@Wally
If the count for future debates drops below the maximum of ten, Representative Gabbard could make a strong case for being included. This would re-enforce a left flank at the most inconvenient time for The Few.

The DNC is getting into a situation where they may have little to work with in terms of flexibility. That's a lot of pressure on poor Uncle Joe.

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@Wally need to develop a keener sense of the sacred. A visit to Standing Rock might cure that. If you could manage such a visit when Liz happens to be there too, I would be happy to give you credit here. Triple reward points if you could also arrange a pic with Liz.

On the MSM and Joe, I haven't done much dipping lately, except for an ill-advised waste of a few hours last night with CNN, so am not in a good position to assess.

Apparently some close observer noticed that at some point in his appearance, Biden experienced a burst blood vessel in one eye. Biden is coming apart at the seams and it's only early Sept. He doesn't make it to IA or, alternatively, his poll #s by then are way down. Declining mental state being noticed, the usual gaffes, the increasingly frequent lies and confused misremembering, his many terrible votes on key issues all come into play.

Meanwhile, the folks are back from their long summer break of fighting off giant mosquitoes and giant Bigfoot in the woods, and so the ones who survived will begin paying slightly more attention to the race and thus the polling should be more meaningful. Bernie and Liz should be the main beneficiaries of Joe's dipping polls by Nov.

If this should somehow fail to happen, in the unlikely event I have made a rare miscalculation, I will reluctantly shuffle back in here and confess the error of my ways and take the usual punishment that is frequently directed my way.

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@wokkamile
is not important, EXCEPT that it will focus attention on his age and his increasing mental errors. Forgetting Obama's name, making up war stories, etc.
So in reality the burst blood vessel is going to be devastating to Biden's campaign. It will accelerate his decline in the polls.

This is good for both Bernie and the Democratic Party in general.

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@gjohnsit hope -- a burst candidacy.

Especially since I've gone all in on Biden's obvious decline finally getting attention.

NPR and others, especially many twitter commenters apparently who were watching last night, beginning to notice Biden's sorry state. Even the gentle-to-Dems podcast host Thom Hartmann is remarking today on Biden's awful showing. And this from a guy who strongly discourages callers bad-mouthing Dem candidates.

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Wally's picture

@gjohnsit

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Cassiodorus's picture

I think especially of how she built her mailing list by supporting single-payer, then turning around and opposing it.

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"There is no good future for the US if neoliberalism, and neoliberal elites, continue to rule." -- Ian Welsh

Wally's picture

@Cassiodorus

How will Harris fare in the California primary come Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020?

Feinstein is a big supporter of Biden, yes? Pelosi???

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@Wally distant from the CA primary for people to have firm opinions, would be my guess. I'm not going to concern myself too much this far out about current state polls and the horserace.

I would imagine both Bernie and Warren would have appeal out here. Bernie did well in the primaries last time, and many will be more familiar with him this time.

Commala does not have deep widespread backing out here, imo, and doesn't have Bernie's interesting, energetic personality nor Liz's warm appeal. And if by the time of the primary Commala is fading, she won't be able to look to CA to rescue her.

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for the general election, not the primary?

Ancient Democratic anecdote:

Voter 1: No way I'm voting for Biden.

Voter 2: "But, I thought you said that you would vote for any Democrat, even a yellow dog."

Voter 1: Not in the primary.

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Hawkfish's picture

@HenryAWallace

Swallow was not the best word choice...

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

@Hawkfish

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boriscleto's picture

It just isn't...

https://politics.theonion.com/how-2020-presidential-candidates-can-raise...

Joe Biden:

Remind voters he’s only had two previous presidential campaigns to figure this all out.

Marianne Williamson:

Open up to voters by revealing offbeat, quirky side.

Bernie Sanders:

Ramp up outreach to the chronically ignored demographic of MSNBC and CNN pundits.

Cory Booker:

Another Hamptons speech or two ought to do it.

Andrew Yang:

What do you have to lose? Bump it to 2K a month.

John Delaney:

Emphasize background running profitable healthcare company to ensure Americans firmly associate him with current state of nation’s healthcare.

Tom Steyer:

Significantly raise average own campaign donation.

Kamala Harris:

Pace herself while rest of the candidates who don’t stand for anything drop out.

Elizabeth Warren:

Put her money where her mouth is and decapitate a banker.

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" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "

@boriscleto
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@gjohnsit What, is Biden stealing material from Stockdale now? @gjohnsit

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OzoneTom's picture

@MinuteMan

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@OzoneTom It might also be spelled plagiarism.

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snoopydawg's picture

I'm seeing lots of people saying that his gaffes are no big deal because he has a history of doing that, but outright lying to us about his support for the Iraq war is another thing.

I'm still dumbfounded by the number of people who don't want single payer anymore. I was just as dumbfounded when people got behind the wars on Libya and Syria.

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"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

@snoopydawg
that only called pro-war witnesses.

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snoopydawg's picture

@gjohnsit

There are plenty of videos that show how pro war he was. This sunk Hillary's campaign in 2008 because she too went out of her way to get others on board with it. Imagine if she had fought for more time for weapons inspections. She knew that the war talk was being manipulated because PNAC tried to get Bill to do it. He had his hands full with Monica at the time, but he did lob a few missiles.

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"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

ludwig ii's picture

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg And Presidents never lie. It's not like she was actively involved with the Nixon investigation or something.

And just because someone supposedly breaks your trust and gets you to vote to kill a million people which you totally wouldn't do if they hadn't lied, it's not like you should stop being their close friend and confidante. Who else can you sit with on Inauguration Day and gossip about what a PooPoo Head Donny Trump is? Unfriend a sociopath who lied you into supporting war, or let bygones be bygones and keep sitting with him at the cool kids table. Hard Choices.

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snoopydawg's picture

@ludwig ii

Voting for sanctions and war when you know damn well that it will cause kids to die is an utter failure of not only society, but of humanity. Arming terrorists who then terrorize and kill kids is an utter failure as a society. Or overthrowing governments and then sending kids back to their country to send a message to their parents...welfare reform...crime bill.. you get my drift.

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"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

snoopydawg's picture

@snoopydawg

Just what did Obama 'the best president ever in my lifetime' do to stop the carnage from mass shootings? BTW, Hills what did you yourself do when you were in a position to do something?

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"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@snoopydawg

News to me.

Oh, she must mean charter schools.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

snoopydawg's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

with the idea of making kids safe for when someone decides to go on a killing spree. It's shown in the video. This is just f'cking nuts.

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"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@snoopydawg

But it's also novel to see Hillary Clinton giving a shit about anything to do with education--other than finding ways for rich people to make money off it.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

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snoopydawg's picture

@Wally

Bernie is the only candidate that has to show everything during the primary that isn't asked for until the general. Silly, Wally how come you don't know that Bernie is held to higher standards than other candidates? And that when he does something he actually didn't really do it? You know..like campaign for Herheinous probably harder than she did herself.

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"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

OzoneTom's picture

@snoopydawg

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ludwig ii's picture

and top-tier Kamala is a rounding error ahead of Tulsi. The one undeniably great thing about electoral politics is the schadenfreude.

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OzoneTom's picture

@ludwig ii
I hear it's really nice this time of year. I'd love to go there someday!

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snoopydawg's picture

to push ByeDone on us after he has lost 3 previous elections and never even made it out of the primary. This just shows their absolute hatred disdain for the people who want their government to work for them instead of their party's masters. On just about every one of his campaign events he goofs up his lines. And then for making his wife tell us that we need to settle because Trump bad shows even more. It's like she doesn't think that the other candidates are even worth considering. If I was Warren or Kambama I'd be ticked.

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"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

but then I didn't believe Trump would win the nomination either. Biden just doesn't have the snap crackle pop. He's good on one to one smarmy, charming, great guy too, but to run for President? I'd think that when the debate stage shrinks he won't stack up as well as the more energetic types.

Interesting thought puzzle. At what point as you move down the candidate list would you vote for Biden? Over Harris? Over Beto?

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@ban nock

I would write in the names of dead comedians before I'd vote for Biden.

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Here's an article at Salon that sums up the problem with Biden: at best it would be jump from the fire back into a sizzling pan. That would be a short-term improvement but the eventual end is still the same.

Many thought Obama was going to take things in a new direction but ended up delivering more of the same minus a few, but not all, crimes against humanity. What he did accomplish was to extinguish the hope that the system could be fixed so people picked the vulgar babbling yam to burn the place to the ground.

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@MinuteMan everyone should read that Salon article. Totally damning stuff. When even architects of the New Democrats can realize they failed...whew.

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Whaaaat? And I see Steyer is at 6% in a Gravis poll in Nevada (8/14-16). I repeat, whaaaat?

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OzoneTom's picture

@tle

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