Why you shouldn't take Biden's lead in the polls seriously
Joe Biden is the front-runner. So, as Biden's wife suggested, we should all "swallow a bit" and support him.
There's nothing more to say then, right?
We must be getting closer to the primaries and caucuses, because Joe Biden’s team on Tuesday began the job of lowering expectations. They’re now making the case that the former vice president could still take the nomination even if he doesn’t win in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
Since when does a candidate that is leading in the polls start talking about losing, unless the polls are horsesh*t?
For starters, even the NYT has noticed the Hillary-esque lack of excitement for Biden.
When Biden was confronted about his tiny crowds, all he could do is refer back to the polls. That strategy has time limits for effectiveness.
And then there is the WashPost, of all papers, which pointed out the obvious.
The point is that eventually some of the candidates that people support will start dropping out. And when they do, the people who support them will need to find a new candidate to back. (Or they might huffily swear off the primary, which is not uncommon.) That trickle of supporters between candidates is an important factor to consider in evaluating the state of the field. After all, you could be leading the pack right now, but if none of your opponents’ supporters likes you, you’re not going to gain ground as the field winnows, which is a problem.
We’re talking to you, Joe Biden.
Damn! It's as if the establishment actually did learn something from 2016.
One thing that stands out in the polls is the collapse of support for Kamala Harris.
After the second Democratic debate, Kamala Harris mocked Tulsi Gabbard for not being a “top-tier” candidate, but a new Economist/YouGov poll shows Harris barely leading Gabbard
At this rate Gabbard might actually finish ahead of Harris. That would be sweet irony.
On the other hand, Harris' decline has a secondary effect. A large percentage of Harris supporters list Warren as their second choice.
Thus Warren is climbing in the polls, and this might continue for a while longer.
Don't lose heart Bernie supporters, because eventually either Biden or Warren will start fading in the polls, and guess who is the second choice for both Biden and Warren supporters? Bernie.
And those pools of voters is far larger than Harris supporters.