A Review of the Electoral College
Recently I was discussing my support of Stein with a friend. They suggested that Stein supporters might cost the $hill the election. I agreed that indeed might be the case, but not in deep red Alabama. I went on to explain that Alabama was sure to vote T-rump. My friend was confused thinking that the popular vote somehow determined the election. I reminded them that Gore won the popular vote, but lost the electoral college (thanks to Jeb rigging the election in Florida). They didn't understand the Electoral College and I wasn't sure about the details either which led to this small bit of research.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States) for more information.
Within the Electoral College system, each state has a number of electors equal to the number of representatives and senators. In all but two states, the candidate receiving the most votes receives all the electoral votes. Evidently there is no minimum percentage of the vote required - simply the most votes. Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions and they use their representative districts to select their winner take all electors within each district. Territories have no electors for the electoral college (and therefore no vote for president).
If no one candidate receives 270 electoral votes, the House will select one of the top three candidates as president. Each state (rather than each representative) get a vote. This was interesting to me. They couldn't pick a Paul Ryan for example - it must be from the top three vote getters. The Senate then selects the VP with one Senator one vote.
Here's one projection of the 2016 electoral college
So the bottom line is that if you live in a reliably red or blue state - it really doesn't matter how you vote. All the electoral college votes will go to the state winner. The few swing states then determine the presidential election. Here's a look at them with current polling (which I don't think includes Johnson and Stein):
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
Here's a map that allows you to make your own projections in the swing states:
http://www.270towin.com/
Here's a couple of video explanations less than 5 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw]
TED version just over 5 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9H3gvnN468
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9H3gvnN468]
So if you don't live in one of the 11 or so swing states, all the gnashing of teeth about the presidential election is for naught. However, every state has some down ballot issues of importance. Of course if election fraud is as rampant as some suggest, all our votes may be for naught.
Comments
"Swing states" won't be where people expect, this year
They may be some of the smaller, "unimportant" states that get the pass-over because they "don't matter" - until they do.
New Hampshire mattered in 2000, but nobody knew it until too late.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
T-rump has upset the cart
He may gain ground in rust belt blue states. No doubt it's a crazy cycle this year and the old rules and game plan aren't playing out.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Interesting that you'd mention Maine and Nebraska.
For the last few years, ALEC has been trying to push this "presidential electors by congressional district" plan to other states. With the hideous gerrymandering that the Rethugs have done (especially after the 2010 census) it would be a much smoother path to the White House for any Rethug, despite getting thumped in the popular vote.
I read an article that said that PBO won Wisconsin in 2012 and got all of its electoral votes. But if the electors were decided by the votes for president within each of Wisconsin's congressional districts, the gerrymandering is so bad that Romney would have gotten 5 electors and Obama would have received only 3, rather than the 8 he got for winning the state.
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
Indeed they want a district based college
and create a gerrymandered presidential election too!
http://changetheelectoralcollege.weebly.com/proportional-plan.html
Here's a game to see how to rig the electoral college vote
Gaming the Electoral College
Don't like the results? Change the rules!
Background: A number of alternatives to the 'winner-take-all' electoral vote allocation have been considered by state legislatures. These ideas usually surface in states where the legislative party in power has been unsuccessful in winning the presidential popular vote. To that end, many of the recent proposals have been in electoral-rich, Republican-controlled states that have consistently gone 'blue' in presidential elections. To date, none of these initiatives have succeeded.
Directions: Use the interactive map below to see how alternative methods would have affected the results had they been in place for the 2012 presidential election. Select a View to see the impact of one method in all states; click any individual state to rotate its method. An explanation of each methodology is farther down the page.
http://www.270towin.com/alternative-electoral-college-allocation-methods/
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
I'm not so sure after today
Even New York may go for Trump. New York regularly elects Republican governors.