Polls, polls, and the Hillary slide

Short one today because I am preparing essay number 4 on Hillary's neuropathology.

The polls have it--NOT!

For those of you who still go to DK, send them this bon mot

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MsGrin's picture

But I smell the very same 'IT'S OVER ALREADY, YOU CAN ALL GO HOME' message we began hearing in February 2015. She had to steal to make that real in the primary, so dunno what that means for the general.

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'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member

The AP has been running articles since thursday evening, or Friday telling how Hillary had no seizures, Trump is talking his campaign down, Trump is struggling, Trump is losing republican support, Trump is polling poorly etc..
Yes, It appears the same fix is in for the media in the General, as it was during the primary. The payback is rolling in, in return for Billy signing the Telecommunications Act which allowed the monopolization of the media, airwaves, internet, etc..

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is net neutrality is the gift she offers in return for the mendacity of the reporting. Along with other typical assorted corporate goodies.

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tapu dali's picture

Why did we say "sadistics class"?
Polling statistics, assuming a symmetrical Gaussian distribution, may work near the median.
I don't have a lot of time, but I believe seeing the last poll on Trump's AA support: 2+/- 4%.

Just think about that. So Trump "could " have -2% support?? No.

The assumption of Gaussian distributions for polling is clearly wrong. Near the median, it may be a reasonable approximation, but the farther away from the 50% mean you get, the distribution will be increasingly skewed.

So trump has 2%. The left side of the probability distribution will end at 0 (by definition of probability). That means that the right side of the probability distribution will be heavily skewed to the right (higher) side in order to integrate the area under the curve to 1.00.

So instead of 2+/-4, it's more like 2 (-1.0, +6.0).

Thus, anywhere from [1.0, 8.0] at a 2 sd level.

(disclaimer: hand calculation)

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

Shahryar's picture

perhaps I have that wrong but I think you get the idea.

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ThoughtfulVoter's picture

Thanks for that great link. Parts of it remind me of grad school statistics.

The more information we as voters have, the less we might be manipulated by the media or campaign propaganda.

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Any Dem presidential nominee starts with an Electoral College advantage often referred to as the "Blue Wall." In order to win, Trump has to get 270 electoral votes. Barring a big reversal of fortunes between now and Election Day, he won't reach that magic number.

More info: http://www.270towin.com

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."

Nt

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Am thinking many people aren't telling the truth when they answer the pollsters questions. Many not willing to say they're voting for Trump Smile
Also, everybody confess - how many times have you told the opposite of what you'd do, when answering a pollsters questions, just to screw with them?
Clintons aren't getting the Bernie Sanders voters - can she win without getting a majority of them? 'specially now that Billy is taking on Comey, and forgetting we all know CGF used the same email server!

Thank you Julian Assange.

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Cassiodorus's picture

Is Califoregon saying that the Electoral College isn't real?

And what's the big deal about showing that "Trump has a chance"? Trump is looking hard to blow his chance, and all to make sure the Anointed One gets the power she wants and all of the nice six-figure quid pro quo relationships (visible upon meaningful research of Clinton's foundation donation records or her speaking fee records) stay intact.

And do you really want to show that Trump has a chance, and lend all sorts of credibility to the Clinton trolls who tell you every day on Facebook that you have to vote for her because Trump is Hitler y'know?

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"The degree to which liberals are coming to inhabit an alternate reality, impenetrable by facts or reason, is actually frightening." -- Steve Maher

TheOtherMaven's picture

but it's just as "real" (or unreal) as the so-called "Blue Wall". Both sides start out with an "advantage" of states that are solidly "Team Red" or "Team Blue", and then fight over the rest.

Whichever candidate gets two out of three of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida will probably win, and if either one gets all three it's almost a done deal. Almost. A few scenarios can still end in a deadlock (with two such unappealing candidates as we have this time, a deadlock is a real possibility) or an upset.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

ChemBob's picture

and my fervent hope is that neither Drumpf nor $hillary get the 270.

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Raggedy Ann's picture

We must stand against the establishment. It's the only way for change to occur. If you are afraid of Herr Drumpf and voting for her heinous due to your fear, nothing will change and the oligarchy will continue to laugh all the way to the bank while they kick sand in the faces of we, the people. As long as you continue to promote hrc, you continue to allow yourself to be a pawn, not a player, in their game. It's time for we, the people, to be moving the chess pieces on the board. Find your courage.

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“It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong.”

-- Voltaire

fakenews's picture

It's a legit ABC online poll. And I didn't see it's link blasted over Drudge or anything like that.

http://abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for/Who are you Voting for?

Donald Trump (70%, 75,164 Votes)
Jill Stein (12%, 13,427 Votes)
Gary Johnson (11%, 12,292 Votes)
Hillary Clinton (6%, 6,513 Votes)
Darrell Castle (0%, 495 Votes)
Total Voters: 107,891

Peace
FN

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"Democracy is technique and the ability of power not to be understood as oppressor. Capitalism is the boss and democracy is its spokesperson." Peace - FN

riverlover's picture

Enough computer savvy to start showing us what the Great Unwashed feel about this ur-race?

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

TheOtherMaven's picture

My bet is it was freeped to hellangone, and doesn't necessarily mean anything. Apparently only some people can vote in the poll (I couldn't), and there may be some serious built-in skew as a result.

Darrell Castle, in case anyone was wondering, is the candidate of the Constitution Party, which claims to be "more Libertarian than the Libertarians" and is merely more wingnutty than anyone else.

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2 users have voted.

There is no justice. There can be no peace.

fakenews's picture

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"Democracy is technique and the ability of power not to be understood as oppressor. Capitalism is the boss and democracy is its spokesperson." Peace - FN

Never mind, another link given worked.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

fakenews's picture

Poll was a bogus ABC misdirected website. Please ignore the poll results.

Peace
FN

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1 user has voted.

"Democracy is technique and the ability of power not to be understood as oppressor. Capitalism is the boss and democracy is its spokesperson." Peace - FN

fakenews's picture

It's a legit ABC online poll. And I didn't see it's link blasted over Drudge or anything like that.

http://abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for

http://abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for/

Donald Trump (70%, 75,164 Votes)
Jill Stein (12%, 13,427 Votes)
Gary Johnson (11%, 12,292 Votes)
Hillary Clinton (6%, 6,513 Votes)
Darrell Castle (0%, 495 Votes)
Total Voters: 107,891

Peace
FN

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"Democracy is technique and the ability of power not to be understood as oppressor. Capitalism is the boss and democracy is its spokesperson." Peace - FN

Top three books on Hardcover NonFiction List New York Times Book Review 8/14/16
1. Crisis of Character by Gary Byrne

2. Hillary's America by Dinesh D'Souza

3. Armageddon by Dick Morris and Eileen McGann

New York Times Book Review Paperback Nonfiction 8/14/16

6. Clinton Cash by Peter Schweizer

No matter how the publishers manage this, still quite impressive, to have four extremely negative books on the list at same time.

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ChemBob's picture

when everything is subject to who cheats the best in this country, but:

Capto_Capture 2016-08-14_09-12-52_AM.png

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... i'm pretty sure this whole site is a fake. It's trump central. Go ahead and click on any header links.

Then go google what abc news real http address is. abcnews.go.com

It's a clever thing, but massive copyright violation and should be DMCA'ed to oblivion. In fact, I think I'll mail that info to abc myself, right now.

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Thanks! That'll teach me to not check things as I once used to, but am often too tired to bother doing lately.

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1 user has voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

TheOtherMaven's picture

from among the Trumpeteers. Wonder what that means?

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2 users have voted.

There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Probably a number of Trump voters are looking for someone - anyone - who they think is not being controlled by billionaires/corporate interests, and who may be finally figuring out that voting directly for a billionaire/corporate interest equals the same disastrous thing. So the Green Party is honestly the only survivable electoral choice, unless sanity and the human survival instinct strikes the Dem Party and they 'let' Bernie have the nomination he actually won, fair and square.

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0 users have voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

ThoughtfulVoter's picture

This article provides analysis why Hillary is not doing as good as the polls indicate. Worth reading the whole thing, starts off with this:

Despite Donald Trump’s disastrous post-convention performance, the presidential race is closer than it appears. While polls show he has decidedly and deservedly lost ground to Hillary Clinton, they tell only half the story. The other half is turnout. Looking at both, it becomes clear why Mrs. Clinton wants this race over before Nov. 8.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/14/presidential-race-os-clo...

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