The next stage in Syria's civil war depends on foreign nations

With the rebel's evacuation from Homs province, and the last rebel-held Damascus suburb, Assad's regime is now stable.
There are still huge swaths of Syria not under government control, but there is no longer any real danger of regime change...except from foreign nations.
Israel became the first nation offering to do regime change in Syria.

Israel could kill Syrian President Bashar Assad if the creep of Iranian military forces and missiles through the Levant towards Israel's borders don't stop, a security cabinet minister said on Monday.

"If Assad allows Iran to turn Syria into a military vanguard against us, to attack us from Syrian territory, he should know that would be the end of him, the end of his regime," Yuval Steinitz told Israeli news site Ynetnews.
..."The month of May will be very volatile," former Israeli Defense Force intelligence chief Amos Yadlin previously told JPost, implying Iran would want revenge for the humiliating strikes.

Killing Assad is a bridge too far. It would force Russia to respond, which puts it at odds with the U.S.

But, if Israel directly tries to kill Syria's president, Russia, which has staked its credibility in the region on its ability to defend Assad, may have to respond. Israel has a very capable air force and stealth jets at its disposal, but Russia's air defenses in Syria are rumored to be among the best.

Israel's offensive against Iran's proxy forces (and the assassination of Syria's leader) aren't the only danger of dramatic escalation. Turkey also has big plans for Syria.

Turkey will carry out new military operations along its borders after its two previous offensives into Syria, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday, as he announced his manifesto for next month's snap elections.

U.S. troops are located in Kurdish areas, so any Turkish offensive would put our troops in danger. In addition, Turkey's purchase of Russian weapons has led to a modest sanction by Washington, which has made Turkey threaten to respond.

On Friday, the US also announced details of a proposed $717 billion annual defense policy bill, which included measures to temporarily halt weapons sales to Turkey.

Ankara is looking to purchase more than 100 F-35, and possibly Patriot missile defense systems, but has also recently signed an agreement with Moscow to purchase Russian S-400 missile defense systems, which are incompatible with NATO systems.

On Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said "Turkey will absolutely retaliate" if the US halts the weapons sales, adding that the US "needs to let go of this."

But Cavusoglu also said on Sunday that Ankara and Washington have reached an understanding on a roadmap in Syria's Manbij in which the militants will leave the area, and that the details were being discussed with the new U.S. secretary of state, Mike Pompeo.

Russia and Turkey have a nominal alliance based on hostility to U.S. foreign policy in Syria. But that fragile alliance is in danger based on events in Armenia.

rmenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan has been ousted only six days into his term, and protests have been voluntarily suspended while the National Assembly decides on his successor.

But political uncertainty in Armenia jeopardises a fragile ceasefire with Azerbaijan over an unresolved conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, and this in turn has broad strategic implications.

Russia is treaty-bound to aid Armenia in the event of a conflict, while Turkey enjoys close cultural and economic ties with Azerbaijan. Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh could therefore threaten relations between Russia and Turkey as they gradually learn to coexist in the Middle East, especially in Syria.

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Azazello's picture

but if the US refuses to deliver F-35s they would be doing Turkey a favor. They'd be much better off buying something from Sukhoi or MiG.
This was in Yves' links this morning:
Wars of Aggression: Drinking from the Poisoned Chalice of the Military-Industrial Complex

Well, since the United States didn’t get the Third World War it wanted in North Korea, nor could it bait Russia into it in Syria, it has turned its attention once again to Iran. To be honest, the need to take Syria is to have a staging area to invade Iran. This time, we have Netanyahu over in Israel trying to needle Trump into attacking Iran. The reason being, Israel wants Iran gone but doesn’t want to incur the casualties. Which was the same deal with Iraq back in 2003.

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@Azazello

elsewhere:

The reason being, Israel wants Iran gone...

Gone? What exactly is meant by that?

I'm not asking this in order to challenge you for quoting it, but what do you think is meant by that kind of language?

Are we aligned with a country that, if they can't work out changes in policy with other countries, can just say, "we want that country gone"? As in, eliminated, incinerated, disappeared? What are they thinking?

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@Linda Wood

controls our craven and bought off elected politicians.

Here's an interesting article I came across today that might give some hints as to how they do it:

https://russia-insider.com/en/list-us-pro-israel-pressure-groups-extraor...

My question is this: How many of these American pressure groups are being run out of or in coordination with Tel Aviv?

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Azazello's picture

@Linda Wood
in the same sense that Iraq is gone or Libya. They don't want anyone who will support the Palestinians or Hezbollah. That's my guess.

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snoopydawg's picture

@Azazello

recruiting station,

"Israel wants Iran gone but doesn’t want to incur the casualties, they want you to join up and do the dying for them".

Why are Israeli lives more important than American lives?

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America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

edg's picture

@snoopydawg

Why are Israeli lives more important than American lives? Why, it's because Jesus was a Zionist! He obviously cared more about a small patch of sand in the Middle East than he did about the Kingdom of Heaven.

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Working through any possible scenario results in a cluster-fck of slaughter and misfortune.

The only people who will be happy with any result of Israeli or American attack on Iran/Syria will be the neocons and the lackey US media, think tanks, and pundits.

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