My predictions for the next two political cycles: add yours, too!
Submitted by BayAreaLefty on Mon, 11/09/2020 - 10:12am
I know I have a cynical bent, though I view it more as a penchant for being realistic. I'll put it to the test by making some predictions about how things will unfold over the next four years. Let's see how they measure up!
Biden Admin's First 100 Days
- Biden will have a center-right to far-right cabinet.
- The COVID "task force" will get off the ground--and accomplish very little of substance (it will however be used by our propaganda/media outlets as evidence of a return to listening to scientists, behaving like an adult, etc.).
- Biden's administration/democrats will attempt to take credit for the vaccine being developed under the Trump administration, if it's effective, or blame the Trump administration if not.
- Biden will attempt to walk back and/or halt some of the Trump admin's actions towards China.
- Biden will establish a task force to further privatize Medicare and/or Social Security, under the guise of saving it.
- Biden will have proposed some regulations and/or laws to address immigration (some won't pass, some will, and he'll generally try to get things back to the way they were under Obama).
From "100 Days" to the Mid-term cycle starting late 2021
- Biden will have proposed some kind of plan that further normalizes cutting social security (e.g. similar to Obama's temporary social security tax holiday) and that results in some regressive tax scheme to "aid the American people" (see also Obama's work).
- The Biden administration will have got us involved in more military action in the middle-east, and possibly worsened the situation with North Korea.
The 2022 Mid-terms
- Voter turnout will drop substantially as compared to 2020, more even than is typical for a mid-term election.
- The Democrats will lose the House, and the Republicans will lose the Senate.
From 2022 to 2024
- Biden will have either already stepped down due to health concerns or he will have made a firm commitment to not seek a second term.
- The COVID-related issues we currently face will still be present, and the impact on our most vulnerable will continue to be devastating; meanwhile, the Biden/Harris administration will propose further business-centric economic "relief" (in a continuation of the Trump/Pelosi and Biden/Pelosi policies).
- Biden/Harris will have got us further entrenched in military conflict, either in the Middle East or in South America.
Election 2024
- The senate will change hands again, and the house is more likely than not to be Democratic Party controlled
- The Republican nominee will win the general election
A common thread through all these predictions will be the following:
"The Cycle" will continue: it will always not be a good time to criticize the Biden/Harris administration or Democratic congressmen:
- It's too soon after the election; at least give them a chance to show what their agenda is.
- It's too close to the mid-terms: we can't be seen fighting each other when the real enemy is "them".
- It's too soon after the mid-terms: let's give the new Congress a chance to show what their agenda is.
- It's too close to the Presidential election: we can't undercut our nominee when the real enemy is "them".
"The Squad" will have completed the process of being embraced and extinguished. It works by a mechanism known as the "Sunk Cost Fallacy". Here's how it works:
- Establishment dems convince one or more of The Squad that they can get a little of what they want in exchange for moderating their criticism or backing something else a little less progressive.
- The "less progressive" (i.e. thoroughly right-wing, backwards-moving, not even keeping the status quo) thing will sail through passage, while the offered carrot is somehow always blocked by obstructionist Republicans.
- "The Squad", thinking they've already put some effort in (sunk cost), decide to double-down (further expenditure) in hopes of gaining support for a postion of power/influence.
- Repeat (3) until neutralized/irrelevant.
Comments
le plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
edited
My predicition: I see Kamala Harris be President by mid 2021. And that was on purpose designed. (well I have to edit this)
I just want to be able to vote directly for a President and not accept a Vice President by default. I don't know the laws that regulate for how long a Vice President takes over, if the President dies or gets incapacitated.
https://www.euronews.com/live
Raúl Ilargi Meijer: “Biden *IS* the Swamp”
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/11/biden-is-the-swamp/
But it IS about Biden.
The fact that this country elected one of the biggest liars to ever cross the political stage is important and more than alarming.
The bar is so low now for morality and character for the Presidency we need to dig a ditch line to accommodate it.
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Sounds like reasonable predictions
Biden will give the Progressives one thing, re-sign the Paris Climate Accords. If you remember back to that fiasco the US, under Obama, showed up with all of the fossil fuel execs and ran the show. The accords are designed to not impede fossil fuel business for 60 years, their scope for utilizing the capital value of their known reserves. The accords are already way to weak to save us, and the commitments are only voluntary. There is no sense of the task required to save human civilizations, that is, stop emitting 40 gT of CO2 every year and sequester excess CO2 about 1,000 gT.
He'll say that the $15/hr minimum wage is up to the states, or will settle for something significantly less.
The perception will be that Biden is worthless as a leader and will be hounded by the right in repayment for the treatment of Trump as president. It will be a bloodbath in the midterms, with the House easily changing hands, the Senate will go slightly Dem because of the huge number of Republican seats at risk.
There are already signs that people in the EU are getting nervous about war. So are all of our "adversaries". So far Biden has not said one thing about toning down US aggression anywhere. He could have talked about the INF treaty, New Start, backing off on Venezuela, rejoining the JCPOA, reducing tensions with North Korea, pulling troops out of Afghanistan, and Iraq, normalizing relations with Syria- removing troops, returning their oil, paying for stolen oil, and ceasing to recruit, arm, and pay jihadists. But no, I haven't heard any of this. There are rumours that Biden has already sent his representatives to Eastern Syria to promise the jihadis that the US will keep troops in Syria, will protect the oil fields for their financial gain and will work for the removal of Assad from office. Russia will see Biden as an extension of Obama/Hillary of whom President Putin has complete contempt. Russia will shore up all of the areas of contention, Syria, Crimea, Ukraine, the Caucasus and defense. They will expect the worst and treat Biden like a bad nightmare, however they will be civil because that's just the way they are.
The American people don't want this and they will see Biden as working on projects that are useless to them and otherwise he's a zero. Without Trump there is no reason to put up with a Biden. I expect the worst. The right and the left will loudly oppose Biden, as the Dems scream to give Biden time. But we won't because we already know that he is a fake, unlike the Zombie trance that we were in during Obama.
In four years Ted Cruz is elected president in a wave of revulsion to Biden/Harris. This will be really bad as Cruz is seriously right wing and very sharp, unlike Trump, who is basically a self-promoter with a weird perception of reality.
Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.
My prediction is that
Biden will slip on a banana peel in the shower in the residence within a week of inauguration, breaking some number of fragile bones that will take so long to heal that he will be forced to step down, resulting in cackling Hillamala ending up as president. Then, the dems will be absolutely blown out in the midterms, massively losing the House and Senate. After that, it'll be too annoying to pay attention to it any more, so I will probably redouble my effort to determine the LD50 for various Damaging Adult Substances.
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
Love "Hillamala".
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Every time I hear
the media talking heads ever-so-carefully pronounce her name kahMAHluh, I can't help but get this earworm from the Muppet Show and Sesame Street:
Mahna Mahna
Dootdoot, de doodoot
Mahna Mahna
Doot doo de doo
Mahna Mahna
Dootdoot, de doodoot, de doodoot, de doodoot doodoo doot doodoot Do!
Gotta put the emPHAsis on the right sylLAHble. Now you can all feel my pain...
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
You are a god.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
Oh geez... you took me right back to sitting on the floor
watching Sesame Street with my now 41 year old daughter.
And NOW I have an earworm too! Thanks a lot... I think.
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Here's mine
Within days or weeks of the inauguration Biden will solemnly declare that his doctors have "just" diagnosed him with cognitive decline/Alzheimer's and he will be stepping down. Harris takes over in a great victory for woke identity politics. McConnell announces that he won't hold a vote to confirm any new Vice President for President Harris except Ivanka Trump. The position remains vacant.
On February 1st, Melania Trump files for divorce.
We rejoin the toothless Paris agreement with great fanfare. We're saved! The initiative to make America's power sector carbon neutral by 2035 (aka "Biden's Drop in the Bucket") doesn't pass because of those darned Republicans. And the deficit. Nothing is more important than that.
AOC easily wins reelection in 2022, but resigns in frustration to become a Twitch streamer.
The climate collapses. Agriculture fails worldwide. Famine grips humanity. President-for-life Harris floats a trial balloon involving a combination tax cuts and loan guarantees for farmers that will somehow enable them to grow crops in Death Valley temperatures with zero water. Cities burn. Security forces suppress food riots with live ammunition. The stock market reaches new highs.
There is no food left to feed the operators of nuclear power plants and they all go Fukushima. All parts of the Earth are too radioactive for higher forms of life. The stock market reaches new highs as algorithms trade with each other.
2070 -- the last two humans in a bunker stab one another over the last stale package of chocolate cookies. The stock market reaches new highs.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Unemployment reaches 100%
The Stock Market reaches a new high. Dow at 10,000,000. Al Gorithm named man of the year by Time Magazine's managing director, A.I. Software.
Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.
The last human-entered transaction
will be done by a day trader who attempts to short 100 quintillion shares of WalMart just before someone kills him to steal his last can of Dinki-Di Meat & Vegies dog food....
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
My predictions are sort of like yours, just more cynical
1, Biden will sign the Paris Accord, but heavily subsidize Big Oil, Coal, and fracking, and other high polluting industries. At least 1 nuclear power plant will melt down due to advanced age and deferred maintenance.
2, Social Security will be gutted, and Americans will be forced to buy Medicare Advantage policies. The ACA mandate will be restored, but premiums will rise so high that millions will be forced to pay it. Not counting Uber unemployment will pass 50%. There will be so many people unable to pay taxes the IRS will shut down.
3, Biden will resign either within the first three months or the first three months after the 2022 elections.
4, Not only will the Dems lose the House in 2022, I don't care how many seats they have to defend in the Senate, the Republicans will gain seats. The question is if the Republicans get a veto proof Senate. Effectively Mitch McConnell will become the head of state.
5, Our middle eastern wars will escalate, as will our involvement in Africa (not that much in South America, with the exception of Venezuela)
6, Our efforts in Africa will be seen as a direct provocation of China and our involvement in Ukraine and the middle east the same to Russia. The final question is if Harris takes over or Biden starts WW3 before he resigns.
7, Either Harris proclaims herself President or a Republican who is a complete unknown now will win in 2024. There will never be another Democratic President, though a ruling regime might use the name. (This is unlikely; more likely the Republican party will rule as a single party state will two or three placebo parties all sharing less than 5% of the "vote".
On to Biden since 1973
Complete unknown?
No way. His name is Cotton, he comes from Arkansas, and he is quite likely to become the Nehemiah Scudder in this regrettable timeline.
WoooOOOOO, Pig Sooey! (Oh shit, did I use my outside voice?)
Nothing to see here- carry on...
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
Bookmarked
This sadly seems to be what we can look forward to from ByeDone/Kamillary. As for styling criticism because it’s too close to....I don’t think many people will fall for it. Maybe I’m being hopeful, but I have been seeing centrists saying that Biden can’t go back to 'normal' and repeat the austerity that Obama did. This gives me hope because they are diehard centrists.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
After reading these comments I can only say one thing.
Most are looking at the bright side of the future. LOL!
You forgot the TPP!
This isn't the timeline I was hoping for...
Climare change will rule the day.
Like it does now, unbeknown to Washington DC. We need to get serious about creating the kind of society which will deal with it.
Oh and:
"Biden will have a center-right to far-right cabinet" -- let's call them what they are: neoliberals. We need to stop being frightened of that word, and we need to stop dodging it by saying that we're not interested in "labels." It's well-defined in a number of books, my favorite of which is Philip Mirowski's Never Let a Serious Crisis Go To Waste. Neoliberals believe that the government's role is to impose "market solutions" upon all of humankind's problems, and Joe Biden definitely runs with that crowd.
"The Democratic Party has been focused too much on pleasing people who matter too little in this society." -- Chris Cuomo
Good set of predictions
You left out Biden compromising on 15$ min. wage. Down to 12$, 10$, 8.25$ finally agreeing with Turtle Mitch on 7.25$/hr. and calling it a win...and agreeing to cut S.S. to pay for it. To help the (upper) middle class...tax breaks!! Got the income? Get a tax break!! Not enough income to take advantage? Work harder!
Stimulus package will be the austerity package instead.
Yah, Biden just as Obama did will pimp that pandemic relief is through tax breaks. I suppose people will be able to deduct the cost of their evictions.
Pretty good predictions.
I will add mine but along the lines of early and later in the admin.
Early
Later.
Only one. Through rabid Russia Phobia (and I would argue racism), Biden the NATO neocon militarists will trigger a nuclear with with Russia. The first sign of the nuclear war will be the total shut down of every power grid and and anything with a solid state device. Like the power outage scene in (old) The Day the World Stood Still
And within minutes the blasts. Even if many nukes launched by the US and Russia don't arrive at targets enough will and will in all likelihood produce a nuclear winter over good parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
Yup
All that you wrote. People think that now that Trump has been defeated and the adults are back in charge by this country is going to continue along its disastrous trajectory that it has been because these things are hard to stop once they get going.
The kids are upset that Trump fired Esper. Like they freaked out over Mattis, McMasters, Tillerson and many, many other horrible, horrible people. Esper used to be the head of Raytheon for gawd's sake. Most others used to be in positions that should have disqualified them in a sane country. They're also upset that democrats are not......... plus not speaking out against Trump/Barr's coup. Oh no a lawyer quit his job at the DOJ because Barr said that "IF you find obvious examples of fraud you can go ahead and look into it." How much of what Trump is doing by looking into the results is being done by Biden's campaign too? I would think that in every election there are lawyers making sure that everything is on the up and up. This is not new.
But I was told that Trump would delay or outright keep us from having the election in any form. Ooop.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Here in NY, Schumer is vulnerable.
Centrist Dems have to rely on massive turnout in the big cities to win. But, if someone can challenge Schumer for the big city votes, he could lose. Statewide, as well as across the country, his milquetoast candidates lost. I wonder if Anthony Delgado might not be eyeing a primary challenge.
Pope Francis has already been making noises about retirement, and his eventual successor is likely, I think very likely, to be a Black man from Africa. Such a man would almost certainly be conservative on marriage and family issues--sorry, doctrine, you know--BUT he would also certainly be at pains to remind American Catholics that our social teachings are not optional. I see the recent news about Francis defrocking an American cardinal, forgot the name, as a kind of serving divorce papers on the American Republican Party. Black evangelical preachers would be very welcome in our priesthood and would not be required to give up their families.
Mary Bennett