Mark Blyth discusses austerity and the populist revolt worldwide with Chris Hedges

I think most people here are already familiar with Mark Blyth, author of Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (available online as a large pdf file), and Chris Hedges, the New York Times reporter who covered the revolutions in East Europe, and was forced out of the Times because of his opposition to the Gulf War.

If you search Youtube for Mark Blyth, you will find a number of new videos of Blyth speaking the past couple months. I have watched three so far, and they are all excellent. But the basic message is the same. From the end of World War Two until the 1970s, wages for workers and the middle class were rising, but corporate profits were low. Blyth says this caused inflation. Blyth is wrong about this--by damn, people, pay attention here, because not very people ever discuss this--the real culprits were Eurodollars, petrodollars, and hundreds of billions of dollars in dirty narcotics and organized crime money, which all combined at around the same time to seek higher returns, since the profits of industrial companies were so low. Perhaps Blyth discusses the role of all this "hot" money in his book--I can't believe someone so brilliant could overlook such a HUGE phenomena, even if most people don't want to acknowledge it, let alone discuss it--but I don't know, because I haven't read his book yet. In the video interview below, Hedges does not raise the role of hot money either, but that does not really surprise me, because I have found that for some reason I have not yet been given to understand, socialists and communists seem to find it impossible to fit the massive role of hot money--and the criminal mentality that accompanies it--into their ideological models of how they think the world works.

Anyway, back to Blyth. He points out that under Reagan and Thatcher, the world's economy was "reset." The shares of national income going to the working and middle class began to shrink, while corporate profits soared. Other analysts have other terms for what happened: deindustrialization, the rise of financial capitalism, crony capitalism, the rise of a rentier class. Whatever--with their economic prospects dimming, and those of their kids and grandkids all but disappearing, lots of people in the working and middle classes are becoming less and less tolerant of the status quo, with more and more animus directed at ruling elites. This incipient revolt of the working and middle classes is being called populism, and Blyth is really, really good at explaining how and why this is happening not just in USA, but in countries all around the world.

I will also include this link to this 45-minute presentation by Blyth, which is notable because Blyth argues that if you really look at it, the voters supporting populists, even those on the right, are not really voting against their interests at all. I think this is really important to keep in mind, because the only thing that can pull independents away from voting for right wing nutcases (I don't think there's any point trying to pull away the hard core 28 to 34 percent of right wing voters), is to put forward a workable plan for building a better future for all people. For me, the obvious program is the $100 trillion needed to build a new world economy on a strictly renewable energy base.

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Lookout's picture

As we look to the future many suggest a major correction (ie drop) in the stock market about June. China's introduction of the petroyuan after the first of the year may spell the demise of the petrodollar.

With the explosion of bitcoin and the stock market one wonders about the future economy.

Max Keiser explains how we got into this mess in the first place - 1st 10 min of this clip... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-zv5W1rgSs

You know the story... we print money based on no collateral. We give it to banks and corporations at almost no interest. They don't hire workers or build new factories, they buy more of their own stock. The house of cards will fall. The only question is when.

And now they get huge tax breaks at a time of record profit - go figure. Government by and for the corporations.

Thanks for the essay!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Citizen Of Earth's picture

for social programs, yet the massive MIC steams along Spending Like There Is No Tomorrow -- Opps did I just give away the ending?

Then along come the sociopath Repubs giving the Plutocrats a historically huge tax break. And Who will pay the interest on the $$$Trillions that have to be borrowed to pay for it? Drum roll please...

Thanks for posting this.

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Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.

I'm curious about your following quote:

From the end of World War Two until the 1970s, wages for workers and the middle class were rising, but corporate profits were low. Blyth says this caused inflation. Blyth is wrong about this--by damn, people, pay attention here, because not very people ever discuss this--the real culprits were Eurodollars, petrodollars, and hundreds of billions of dollars in dirty narcotics and organized crime money, which all combined at around the same time to seek higher returns, since the profits of industrial companies were so low. Perhaps Blyth discusses the role of all this "hot" money in his book--I can't believe someone so brilliant could overlook such a HUGE phenomena, even if most people don't want to acknowledge it, let alone discuss it--but I don't know, because I haven't read his book yet.

Can you provide evidence for this? I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "Eurodollars" contributing to inflation, for example. I'm just curious. If nobody else is talking about it, what makes you correct?

I don't have a good idea of why inflation was so high in the 1970s, but it seems very obvious that deregulation of a variety of industries, the resulting shifting of working-class and middle-class jobs (and most manufacturing) to cheaper areas around the world, the shifting of most public money to the financial bailouts, the Military-Industrial Complex (petrodollar), fossil fuel (petrodollar) subsidies, and cutting of public programs and "entitlements", as well as unfair taxation practices have all been major parts of wealth shifting to the top over the past 40 years.

Thanks!

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Tony Wikrent's picture

@apenultimate
The first point to make is that labor costs were not rising that much. The textile, clothing, and shoe industries had been moved from New England to the old Confederate South beginning in the 1950s. When John Kennedy was a Senator from Massachusetts, he gave a long speech about this problem which is actually available on the tubes somewhere. As for the annual increase in labor costs themselves, a look at the Statistical Abstract will show that they were not out of historical line until 1977, when the rate on increase reached 8.0%. And in 1979, we get the first big union contract with givebacks -- the UAW contract with a bankrupt Chrysler. Negotiations began in July 1979 with Chrysler asking for a two-year freeze on wages and benefits, which the UAW immediately rejected by
the UAW. Agreement was reached in October 1970, with the UAW giving up $203 million in wages and benefits. See Concession Bargaining - The Kenneth M. Piper Lectures, by Thomas Miner, October 1983.

And actually, the attack to force down labor costs had begun in the early 1970s, in the construction industry. From Givebacks in a Deepening Crisis in Solidarity, August 2011:

Among the first to feel the effects were workers in the construction sector, starting in the 1970s. Employers formed early in the decade the Construction Industry Users Roundtable. Its strategy was to undermine the then powerful building trades unions by a new tactic called the “double breasted operation.” Simply put, this was a way to undermine the construction unions by setting up parallel, non-union companies.

The unions ignored the threat more or less, since the double-breasted operations were set up in the suburbs and outlying regions. The urban bastion of unionization in construction wasn’t immediately impacted. Employers progressively then moved jobs and work to the non-union operations.

The loss of jobs in the unionized operations eventually forced workers and unions to start granting concessions in an attempt to prevent their work shifting to the non-union companies. Concessions soon expanded. Saving jobs in exchange for givebacks on wages and benefits eventually became the norm.

So, if it's not rising labor costs, what was causing high inflation at the end of the 1970s? Well, what were the major world events of 1973? The Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur War, followed by the Arab oil boycott, which drove oil prices from $3 a barrel to $12 a barrel world wide. Believe me, there was nothing else, especially labor costs, that came close to quadrupling in price over the entire decade, let alone over one single year.

OK, so maybe we can leave it there, and just blame the quadrupling in oil price in 1973-1974 for the high inflation at the end of the decade. Frankly, I completely forgot about it. And the reason why leads to my own personal story, and why what sticks in my mind is not the quadrupling in oil price, but the Eurodollars, petrodollars, and narcotics money. In the late 1980s to early 1990s, I was writing on capital goods industries: steel, autos, machine tools, railroad locomotives, farm and construction equipment, aircraft, etc. One thing I was doing was compiling statistics on mergers and acquisitions of industrial companies. The numbers were astonishing. (By the way, I think I have the data, and much other data, on about 4 or 5 old 3.5 inch floppy disks in QuattroPro files. I would dearly like to recover those data series. If anyone has the ability -- and willingness -- to read QuattroPro off old 3.5 inch floppy disks, please let me know!). At some point in the 1990s, the amount of money pouring into mergers and acquisitions exceeded the amount of money corporations spent on research and development, and a few years after that, the amount spent on new plant and equipment.

A larger and larger share of mergers and acquisitions was by leveraged buyouts (LBO). In October 1988, the largest LBO up to that point was initiated, of RJR Nabisco by Kohlberg Kravis and Roberts for the then staggering sum of $25 billion.

The obvious question was: where is all this money coming from? As we started to interview people and ask that very question, a picture of the dark side of all this began to emerge. I wrote a bit about this in May 2013 at TOP: Penny Pritzker as an example of the criminality of our elites.

So, the Reagan regime of deregulation was really a double whammy. It basically decriminalized the worst behavior of banks and corporations, at the very time that some of the most immoral, ruthless, indeed murderous, people in America were buying legitimacy for themselves and their heirs by seizing control, through brazen manipulation of debt and stock markets, of America's industrial companies.

The story of the hour is Penny Pritzker becoming Secretary of Commerce. So, tonight, you're going to learn about the Pritizker family and its fortune. I suspect that it's probably more than you want to know.

The origins of the Pritzker family fortune was her grandfather's mob connections when he was a tax attorney for a lot of people in "The Outfit," the Chicago mob, beginning under Al Capone, and continuing through the 1980s. This connection to organized crime was reportedly what financed the creation of Hyatt Hotels by Penny's father.

Yeah, that was a real can of worms we had opened. "Can of snakes" is probably more accurate. Now, one of the people I worked with was a real whiz with deriving meaning from things like the national income accounts and the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds reports. So another question comes up: if so much of mergers and acquisitions is dirty money, does any of this money show up in these national economic statistics.

Well, the answer is: they do and they don't. There is of course no line item for "fund inflows from narcotics cartels" or anything like that. But there are clearly some anomalies and unbalances that can probably best be explained by recognizing the presence of dirty money.

An interesting issue that arose was that the Fed, the Treasury, the Comptroller of the Currency, and other government entities had been grappling with these types of problems in the national economic statistics caused by the flows of Eurodollars and petrodollars. So, there was a substantial body of scholarship on the Eurodollar and petrodollar markets, and their effects on the economy. While the national economic statistics were not taking full account of Eurodollar and petrodollar flows, the body of scholarship provided numbers that could be backed out of the anomalies to give us some idea of how big the flows of dirty money were.

At the time we were doing all this -- the early 1990s -- the numbers the stats wizard had come up with indicated that dirty money alone was already one tenth the size of GDP. The Eurodollar market was at least five time bigger than that In June 2015, Marco Cipriani, a research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group, posted on Barry Ritholtz's site that "The average daily volume of Eurodollars borrowed overnight through the brokers in the past year was about $140 billion." That, uhh, works out to about $35 trillion a year -- TWICE the size of USA GDP!

The petrodollar market, of course, was launched soon after the Oil Embargo of 1973, but it was growing wildly by the time we were looking at it. The past 15 years or so, the oil producing countries have been running trade surpluses of around $1 trillion a year. According to Wikipedia, "Thanks to the historic oil price increases of 2003–2008, OPEC revenues approximated an unprecedented US$1 trillion per year in 2008 and 2011–2014.[2] Beyond the OPEC countries, substantial surpluses also accrued to Russia and Norway,[4] and sovereign wealth funds worldwide amassed US$7 trillion by 2014–2015."

The creation of the petrodollar market was actually a stroke of genius. All the money gushing out of USA to pay for oil, would come back as petrodollars buying national debt. From the standpoint of national economic accounts, there was balance. But not at the beginning: According to Henry C K Liu, in June 2008 Flat-earther blind to oil facts,

There was solid evidence that the 1970s recycling of petrodollars, which mostly ended up in the dollar assets in the United States anyway, contributed to US inflation as much as the higher retail price of gasoline. It in essence siphoned off additional global funds to purchase higher-priced oil for investment in US real estate, which was the only sector the then unsophisticated Arab money...

As the Saudis became more sophisticated in their deployment of petrodollars, the imbalances that might spur inflation appear to have been weakened.

Who, and how was this petrodollar system created? Bloomberg in May 2016 The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret described USA Treasury Secretary Bill Simon's secret trip to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in July 1974 to convince the Saudi regime to use their new gusher of dollars from quadrupled oil prices, to buy USA government debt.

I know I had read years ago about secret negotiations creating the petrodollar system, but could notremember exactly where. A link just mentioned the explosive 2004 book by John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, and there it is on pages 100 to 104: "....Washington would offer the House of Saud an amazingly attractive deal: a commitment to provide total and unequivocal U.S. political and--if necessary--military support, thereby ensuring their continued existence as the rulers of their country."

What are we left with? We know that labor costs had already been knee-capped by 1979, so what does that leave us? We know that by the late 1970s, flows of Eurodollars and narcotics money are over half the size of USA GDP. At the same time, the USA industrial base is being asset stripped and shipped overseas. So, it's not just more money chasing the same amount of goods, it's much worse: you have more money chasing fewer goods.

(Let me repeat: I think I have the data, and much other data, on about 4 or 5 old 3.5 inch floppy disks in QuattroPro files. I would dearly like to recover those data series. If anyone has the ability -- and willingness -- to read QuattroPro off old 3.5 inch floppy disks, please let me know!)

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- Tony Wikrent
Nation Builder Books(nbbooks)
Mebane, NC 27302
2nbbooks@gmail.com

Tony Wikrent's picture

@Tony Wikrent
I am sticking this note here; I hope to expand on this as a full post. I have alluded in previous comments and posts about my dismay and disappointment that the role of hot money was not an issue that concerned socialists and communists when the issue was raised with them. But there is crucial difference in the world outlook, mind set, and public spiritedness between the "owners of production" and crime bosses. "Owners of production" can be reasoned with, so you get things like the Treaty of Detroit, a grudging acceptance of collective bargaining, cooperation in addressing community issues, such as needs for hospitals, clinics, after-school recreation, etc. These things are largely intangible, but they are nonetheless real. These things make an "owner of production" who invented some new technique and technology and built a fortune on it, very, very different than a crime boss. But, apparently, from what I've been told, in a number of heated discussions some 30 years ago, none of this matters, according to marxist and communist theory. Well, the fucking plain as day evidence just did not conform to that theory. There was a difference. The management of industrial enterprises owned by crime bosses is much less empathetic, much more ruthless, and -- somehow, just way different. There really is a big difference between a person who is accustomed to killing as a "way of doing business" and a person who is not. And this difference has definitely changed the entire culture and spirit of American capitalism, in my opinion.

There are parallels, I think, with the Civil War, and the differences between northern and southern elites. And one of the great tragedies of American history is that after the Civil War, northern elites followed Lincoln's policy of "malice toward none, charity toward all" and recoiled from the task of utterly extirpating southern elites and their culture.

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- Tony Wikrent
Nation Builder Books(nbbooks)
Mebane, NC 27302
2nbbooks@gmail.com

@Tony Wikrent

Thanks, Tony for that info. It's a lot to think over--you've obviously thought about it a lot over the past years. One questions/suggestion--it might be interesting to send your theories to Blyth and see what his take on it is. He is a professor at Brown, after all--you could probably track down his email without much trouble. I've had decent luck getting professors to respond to me regarding my research (which is in no way economics).

Just another, unrelated item is the banking "innovations" that are going on, which are creating fake money but real liability/debt. Like the credit default swap market in 2007, which was $60 trillion worldwide. There's not that much money in the world, but the banks were not required to have the capital to back up those mortgage insurance notes. The debt was real. The money wasn't.

Not much has changed along those lines . . .

Thanks for your response! I'll look forward to your next post! Hoping you can get a response from Blyth!

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@Tony Wikrent these disks? A quick search yields a fair number of instructions on how to dump QP into Excel, PDF, etc. Seems the original makers were Corel, who was bought out by Adobe. So if you go to adobe go to their Ottawa office (corels original home.)

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Orwell: Where's the omelette?

Alligator Ed's picture

Of course he said much more than 2 things. But one concerns the "left". The Blyth-predicted collapse of Britain's Labour Party, which judging by the rising Corbyn popularity seems to be odd. The domestic Democrats' disarray is another matter. The seeds were sewn when Bill Clinton reneged on the promise of FDR for his own crony capitalism. Those seeds started visibly sprouting with the Bernie Sanders debacle. The ossified thinking (if indeed there is any amongst the Democratic elite) is by definition inflexible. Times change--our mainline Democrats don't. Differing directions of stress applied to the Dems WILL most certainly "whiggify" the donkey party.

The other thing which struck me is that the > $ 1 T student loan debt MUST collapse because austerity makes it impossible for the majority of student debtors to ever repay this debt--let alone have any money left over to afford any but a meager lifestyle, unable to buy consumer goods, which in turn generate corporate profits. In this sense, Blyth's suggestion of non-cooperation with government austerity will occur, involuntarily primarily.

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I missed something as well. It was probably in one of the links or videos. But where did the $100 trillion needed number come from? Thanks. And Happy new year.

For me, the obvious program is the $100 trillion needed to build a new world economy on a strictly renewable energy base.

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Tony Wikrent's picture

@peachcreek
In November 2009, Mark Z. Jacobson, at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, and Mark A. Delucchi, at the Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis, had an article in Scientific American that surveyed what was required to end the era of burning fossil fuels. In 2011, they posted two pdf files providing heavily footnoted details of their 2009 Scientific American article; the pdfs provide all the details you could want, including discussion of critical material shortages, such as rare earth elements, for a mass, crash program.to stop global climate change and switch the world economy from its dependence on burning fossil fuels, to totally sustainable renewable energies, we need a crash program of $100 trillion in new construction of:

3.8 million 5-Mega-Watt wind turbines;
49,000 300-Mega-Watt concentrated solar plants;
40,000 300-Mega-Watt solar power plants;
1.7 billion 3-kilo-Watt rooftop photvoltaic (PV) systems;
5,350 100-Mega-Watt geothermal power plants;
270 new 1,300-Mega-Watt hydroelectric power plants;
720,000 0.75-Mega-Watt wave devices; and
490,000 1-Mega-Watt tidal turbines.

$100 trillion may sound like a lot of money. It really isn't. It's about how much is traded in three weeks in US financial markets: stocks, bonds, futures, options, and other derivatives.

Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials

Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies.

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- Tony Wikrent
Nation Builder Books(nbbooks)
Mebane, NC 27302
2nbbooks@gmail.com

@Tony Wikrent

but, as I've mentioned on this site before, this would be a multi-decade stimulus to the economy and the working- and middle-classes.

Imagine taking half our military budget here in the US, approximately $350 billion every year, and making it a nationwide jobs program transitioning our country to renewable energy in a sustainable way. Market it as defense of our nation (it really would be in so many ways), and transfer half our military folks into this new, civilian defense initiative. This would involve, over many years, doing the following:

--Developing a new, nationwide smart electrical grid that could reroute power to wherever needed even if multiple parts of the grid went down (through failure, terrorist attack, etc.). That itself would be an Apollo-style program, tapping our best minds and engineers in the country.

--Developing distributed renewable resources. Offshore wind up and down all our coasts (but relatively far out to sea so as to minimize effect on property values). Solar installations along state and federal highways, state and federal parking lots, and where possible, state and federal buildings. Offer government funded solar rooftop installations to people with lesser incomes for free, paid through this program. Let local companies do the work (solar installations, etc.) and boost local economies that way.

--Develop renewable energy storage solutions (batteries), which could also be a challenge for the brightest minds in our country.

--For the above initiatives, designate that a certain percentage of raw materials (aluminium, steel, solar panels, turbine blades, whatever) come from US companies. Even if it's 30%, it will serve as a boom to our manufacturing base. Cost can be higher than overseas (or Canadian) competitors, but only by a certain percentage to account for higher labor costs (or something along those lines).

--As the above projects mature, start projects to shut down coal mines and nuclear facilities safely, and clean up polluted areas and waterways.

--For half the military transferred into these areas, fund training for them, emphasize this is to make our country's energy system reliable, resilient, and safe for everyone. No longer will we need to be dependent on foreign oil, or dirty fracking. Hire an equal number of non-military civilians to provide good paying jobs to help execute the above programs.

Think big! Think multi-decade! At $350 billion per year, that's $7 trillion over 20 years, just in the USA. The benefits would be enormous!

Add on infrastructure support (rebuilding bridges, roads, etc.), add on another 10 years, and make it $10 trillion over 30 years.

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