If Bernie beats HRC in the primary, Its unrealistic

to think Bernie loses the general election. Comparing Bernie in 2016 to McGovern in 1972, saying Bernie loses like George did is a bit of a stretch. One should remember that the 1972 Democratic primary was a 4 man race, Humphrey [4.1 million], Wallace [3.7] & Muskie [1.8] got 9.6 million votes to McGoverns 4 million. Humphrey would have been the nominee on the basis of the popular primary vote. While in the general election McGovern was stabbed in the back by the party machinery, some of whom openly supported Nixon and suffered from the Eagleton affair. Its going to be fairly difficult to see a similar situation develop that comes close to what happened in the 1972 Democratic primary, which played a role in the results of the 1972 general election.

There will have to be a shitstorm to equal all that happened in 1972 for Bernie to go down like George did in 1972. TO claim all that will happen agian is a tad unrealistic.

If the major vote getters are Bernie and Hillary in the 2016 Democratic primary there will be no comparison to the 1972 primary. And quite frankly if Bernie does compete with the skilled and experienced HRC campaign, if he beats her in the primary, he's poised to go all the way. IF Bernies campaign has what it takes to beat Hillary, its just flat out silly to think Ted Cruz or Donald Trump or any other bat shit crazy mofo would stand a chance against Bernie. Its not like beating Hillary in the primaries means Bernie comes out of the convention with zero momentum. In fact he'll be the big story of the summer if he pulls out the nomination.

When Bernie gets to the general election, issues like breaking up the too big to fail banks resonates with Fiscal Conservatives & Libertarians. While Bernies infrastructure spending plan to create millions of jobs is hard to vote against, if you're not a Tea Party type. If you're young looking for a good job, or have a bunch of student debt or an Independent, you just might find your way into the voting booth in November and pulling the lever for Bernie.

Looking at the GOP field today, there isn't one Republican hopeful that won't get hosed by Bernie in a debate. If you voted for Muskie or McGovern in 1972 vs Nixon, you're going to vote for Bernie, if you voted for Edwards, Obama, Kucinich or Clinton in the 2008 primaries, you're probably going to vote for Bernie. How many Nader voters are going to go for Bernie? If you voted for Reagan twice then Clinton twice, you're probably going to vote for Bernie. If you embraced Occupy Wall St, you're probably going to vote for Bernie. If you voted for Bobby in 1968, I'll bet you ten bucks you're going to vote for Bernie. If you voted for Dukakis in 1980 I know you're voting for Bernie.

The number one reason Bernie can't win? No one named Bernie is going to make it to the White House. The number 2 reason Bernie would lose the general election is if half of the people who voted Bernie in the primaries turned around and voted for some extremist right wing nut job like Ted Cruz in the general election.

So go ahead, make the case Bernie can't win in November. I'm listening.

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Roger Fox's picture

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/05/31/1389320/-If-Bernie-beats-HRC-in...

It made the rec list in about half an hour. I'm waiting for the second wave.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

gulfgal98's picture

I honestly do not see anyone (Democrat or Republican) beating Bernie in a debate. Bernie knows his stuff and has been consistently an true populist.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Roger Fox's picture

that won't get hosed by Bernie in a debate

We agree.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

It's going to be interesting to see what type of tripe the Clinton PR machine has been putting together. I think she will pretend to stay above the fray, while allowing people like Mother Jones and Kos do the dirty work..

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praenomen

Unabashed Liberal's picture

after what the Dem Party PtB (Kerry and Gephardt) did to undermine Governor Dean, with the help of the MSM following 'the scream' video, do you really believe that the Dem Establishment would allow Sanders to take the nomination?

And Dean was a centrist--fiscally conservative, moderate on social issues Democrat--whom I supported, because I didn't realize that he was a fiscal conservative.

So far, Former Republican Governor Mike Huckabee has articulated the most specific and strongest stance of any current or potential presidential candidate regarding Social Security or Medicare--he unequivocally states that he against any cuts to these two programs.

Remember, a recently passed non-binding Amendment (offered by Democrats) about expanding Social Security was to insure setting up a receptacle for the "spousal benefits" of gay spouses in states that don't recognize gay marriage--in the event that legislation is passed one day to fund this benefit, and to allow for a transfer of monies between the Social Security and Old Age and Disability accounts--which Repubs tried to block with a rule change. It was non-binding--no teeth, whatsoever.

Does anyone know "specifically" what any of the Democratic Party candidates' stances are on Social Security and Medicare cuts? (with a reference quote or article, if possible)

Just saw a blurb about Sanders' stances in Meteor Blades' recent diary, which states:

Expand Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and nutrition programs.

IMHO, that is useless, without a specific quote or reference as to "what" expand means. As noted above, "expand" sometimes has a very narrow definition.

Anyhoo, thanks for the diary, Roger--a well-written, well-stated essay. Thanks!

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

As much as I've griped about Schieffer lately, today was his last day as Host on "Face The Nation." Over the years, he was one of my favorites. So,

"Farewell, Bob Schieffer. Here's wishing you a wonderful retirement."

Mollie


"Every time I lose a dog, he takes a piece of my heart. Every new dog gifts me with a piece of his. Someday, my heart will be total dog, and maybe then I will be just as generous, loving, and forgiving."--Author Unknown
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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

gulfgal98's picture

on where Sanders and others stand on Social Security.

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2015/05/02/3653792/bernie-sanders-plans...

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Unabashed Liberal's picture

on the CPI-E, before I comment on the young man's claims.

Of course, the cuts which he attributed to Rubio, Christie and Bush, are all part of the Democratic President's bipartisan Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission's recommendations.

I'll bookmark this. One of the things that I'm looking for is direct quotes when at all possible.

The reason that I mentioned Mike Huckabee is that he stated, on national television [with no parsing of word] that he would not support any cuts to these programs. Not sure that I buy it--that he would stand by this pledge.

However, it is EXACTLY this type of unequivocal declaration, coming directly from the candidate, that I'm trying to find regarding all of the Democratic Party candidates. (and for that matter, any other Republican candidates) So, thanks!

Mollie


"Every time I lose a dog, he takes a piece of my heart. Every new dog gifts me with a piece of his. Someday, my heart will be total dog, and maybe then I will be just as generous, loving, and forgiving."--Author Unknown
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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

Bruce Webb's picture

http://www.cepr.net/blogs/cepr-blog/thoughts-on-the-chained-cpi-social-s...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has constructed an experimental elderly index (CPI-E) which reflects the consumption patterns of people over age 62. This index has shown a rate of inflation that averages 0.2-0.3 percentage points higher than the CPI-W.

The main reason for the higher rate of inflation is that the elderly devote a larger share of their income to health care, which has generally risen more rapidly in price than other items. It is also likely that the elderly are less able to substitute between goods, both due to the nature of the items they consume and their limited mobility, so the substitutions assumed in the chained CPI might be especially inappropriate for the elderly population.

While the CPI-E is just an experimental index, if the concern is really accuracy, then the logical route to go would be for the BLS to construct a full elderly CPI. While this would involve some expense, we will be indexing more than $10 trillion in Social Security benefits over the next decade. It makes sense to try to get the indexation formula right

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aka Social Security Defender (socsec.defender at g-mail)

Roger Fox's picture

The only wrong with SS can be fixed by job creation. 20 million jobs at 36k each adds 90 billion in FICA per year, making SS good thru 2090.

850 billion spent on infrastructure will create 20 million jobs paying in excess of 36k each. Putting the young able bodied men to work on infrastructure frees up jobs for those 50+ yrs old.....this puts experience where it does the most good, and strong bodies where they are needed.

Installing offshore wind turbines starts at 85k. What young guy wouldnt want to do that for 5 years, banking 300k then going home to marry his sweatheart?

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

mimi's picture

certification for it and it's hard to find.

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mimi

joe shikspack's picture

which does not require spending on job creation (though that's an excellent idea for other reasons).

all of the mathematical assumptions that the greenspan commission used in order to make ss solvent in perpetuity were based upon 90% of all income being subject to fica tax. the reason that there is a problem now is because of income inequality which has concentrated so much of the total income into so few hands that (due to the cap feature) a good bit less than 90% of all income is now subject to the tax.

raise the cap so that 90% of all income is subject to fica tax again and, voila, zee problem eet is solved.

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NCTim's picture

Just apply FICA taxes to all income and call carried interest income.

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The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself. - Friedrich Nietzsche -

joe shikspack's picture

then we can raise ss benefits, too.

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Roger Fox's picture

So whats new? But its not an absolute, we need to wait to see how its played out.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

Bruce Webb's picture

From his webpage
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/must-read/on-social-security

What is a fair and sensible long-term funding solution to Social Security? The fairest approach to making Social Security fully solvent for the next 50 years is to lift the cap on taxable income, now at $113,700, and apply the Social Security payroll tax on income above $250,000. Right now, someone who earns $113,700 a year pays the same amount in Social Security taxes as a billionaire. This makes no sense. Applying the Social Security payroll tax on income above $250,000 would only impact the wealthiest 1.3 percent of wage earners. In other words, 98.7 percent of wage earners in the United States would not see their taxes go up by one dime under this plan.

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aka Social Security Defender (socsec.defender at g-mail)

joe shikspack's picture

mcgovern threatened the military-industrial complex and would have stopped their imperialist war. bernie has made no noises about ending wars, he has consistently voted to fund them (though he has not voted to start them), he has demonstrated his eagerness to obtain military pork (see f-35's in burlington) and he is a staunch supporter of israel, even as israel committed war crimes in gaza he voted for more military aid.

bernie is great on domestic issues. he's a great butter man.

he can win where mcgovern couldn't because he'll support both guns and butter.

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mimi's picture

have a more forceful anti-war and anti-MIC-gun attitude? I wonder when I should start to worry about it? Before or after the primaries in case he wins the primaries.

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mimi

joe shikspack's picture

or anti-imperialist candidate. he shook off that kind of socialism long ago in favor of electability.

i think that it's fair to say that no matter who wins in 2016, they will not be anti-war or anti-imperialism. they may make noises about it, but it seems unlikely.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

— and nothing absolutely catastrophic happens to the US economy before the 2016 elections — then Bernie Sanders will be a great champion of the current US international murder-sprees. (Or, he will withdraw after he sheepdogs all of you back into the herd.)

In the US, presidential candidates don't get the $2 billion they now need to fully fund a Presidential campaign without the backing of the criminal financiers and defense contractors.

Hillary is already committed to past and future bloodbaths. She's a no-brainer psychopath. She would have happily raped Gaddifi to death with his own broomstick. That's why she will win for the Democrats.

These are the laws of physics, exactly the way they unfold in this universe.

Ii would be so exhilarating to have a reality-based conversation — instead of adult daycare, political, make-believe.

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____________________
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.
— Voltaire

wendy davis's picture

that Sanders is not a true socialist, but a Democratic Socialist capitalist. Folks might like to consider this op-ed from Worker's Compass: 'A Contribution to the Critique of the Sanders Campaign'

The piece compares two socialist organizations on endorsing him or not, and why, even though the ISO and the SAlt agree on plenty of points. That he's already announced he'd back the Democratic winner of the primaries speaks volumes to me. But your comment about 'sheepdogs' wa used recently by Bruce Dixon, only in a slightly different context: 'This is What Happens When We Follow the Democrat Sheepdog. And What Can Happen If We Don't'

Now, mind you, he's a Green, and in the Green Shadow cabinet, but when's the last time we've heard from them? As the Workers' Compass piece notes, some Greens may be anti-capitalist, but the party is reformist capitalist, as is Bernie.

Anyhoo, some things to consider.

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mimi's picture

ever be implemented? What need to change to make it possible? Is it an election system feature that voices of the people, who want anti-imperialist policies to be implemented, will never get a chance?

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mimi

joe shikspack's picture

and winning power. i'll leave it at that for now. i'm thinking over how i want to explicate that comment, but it's going to take more time than i've got right now.

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Roger Fox's picture

But had near zero coat tails. I think Clinton was more powerful because he used the bully pulpit to better effect. Obama has failed with meager attempts to badger and cajole people from the Bully pulpit.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

mimi's picture

a lifetime in front of me to try to understand how to win power and elections (in the US). I am already very glad to ask my questions without being
asked to stay in the corner. Smile

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mimi

and they don't want other people to hear our complaints. It would expose the bankruptcy and corruptness of their ideology if the truth reached the surface.

Neo-liberalism in America is no different than neo-liberalism in Europe, except in this country, the neo-liberals have purchased every media platform that can be bought. That way they can control the message. If no one can hear our complaints, then we must be united...that is why so many of us are screaming as loud as we can...

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praenomen

Roger Fox's picture

FDR openly mocked his opponents, JFK spoke and behaved in a manner that evoked power and challenged Americans. Both men had the innate ability to act and behave powerfully. FDR was nearly overthrown in a coup, while JFK was the victim of a coup.

In a nut shell its called leadership. Bernie Sanders & Jimmy Carter has some, MLK & RFK had a lot, Liz Warren has a bunch.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

Roger Fox's picture

Jimmy Carter had his Camp David Accords.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

I have great hopes that Bernie will take his candidacy all the way. I think the time is right; I don't see any Beltway insider taking this election if we can prevent them from kneecapping him. I saw the hit piece put out by Mother Jones -- avid Hillary supporters; it just made me more determined to shout louder.

For the first time in a long time, I feel hopeful.

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praenomen

Roger Fox's picture

My contention is that isf Bernie beats HRC, its because he raised a lot of money and pounded her on the issues, with a proven fundraising machine, money wont be an issue campaigning vs a GOP nominee. Many at Kos could not see the point and ended up being hypocritical. I'm slightly surprised my diary ended up on the rec list for the whole afternoon. And also slightly surprised the Hillary cheerleading squad didn't show up in full force.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

gulfgal98's picture

with her on her "listening tour." Seriously, why would she need a listening tour? What was she doing during the two years since she left her SOS post? Oh I forgot, she was busy listening to her corporate benefactors. Wink

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

mimi's picture

This one: Hillary Clinton Isn't Ready to Disclose Who's Funding Her Campaign?

Wow, raise me some money and you have the privilege to squeeze my presidential hands and chat a little on my retreat establishment?

I hope Sanders goes full blown attack mode and ridicules the "access to the mighty ones". It sounds like the fundraising volunteers behave like they just gained access to the king's or zar's court to kiss their feet. (Sorry, that's the way I would express myself in German).

Does that mean, if you volunteer for Bernie, you basically have to accept that doing the money collecting game is all you can do? I want a candidate, who has the nerves to say that he thinks it's a shame to have to collect that money from people, who mostly can't afford it. And if you collect from the rich ones, then you "have to give back something" for the favour of having been the recipient of their "generous" donations. That something is certainly not in the interest of the people, who can give only a little.

This systems sucks so badly, Bernie should shout and holler and tell his voters that under his presidency the public campaign finance reform will be implemented. I still have not understood why he couldn't get such legislation through. I hate your system. It's too complicated. Congress is a maze of tricks to me.

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mimi