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Crisis three, have we: SARS-Cov-19, the Climate Crisis, and the disintegration of democracy.
Treatment for the Coronavirus is evolving. The disease is complicated and is not acting like influenza. They are finding that it also causes brain infections, heart infections, and neurological problems. Ventilators are generally not working. So now they are avoiding ventilators for the most part. Sixty to eighty percent of the people put on ventilators either die or end up with additional serious complications.
Instead doctors are now turning people on their stomachs and improving their oxygenation. Dr. Richard Levitan, an airway specialist who has practiced emergency medicine for over 30 years addresses these issues.
The Bernie Sanders campaign has collapsed into nothing. Just like that. A national campaign that raised over $200 million dollars, hit the ground running with a coherent online organization and had over 1 million volunteers failed. It failed.
Democracy is dead.
And finally, there is the new Moore film, ostensibly addressing the climate crisis. The movie highlights the population issue; it highlights capitalism; it criticizes renewables.
But it makes none of these the center of its argument. What that is remains unclear.
The climate crisis, capitalism and over-population are inextricably interwoven. Capitalism is not a workable system and we have too many people. The world economy is based on capitalism which is based on consumption which is dependent on resource extraction.
And we do not have the resources to support 7.5 billion people with capitalism or possibly even without it (especially given the climate crisis).
Whatever else can be said about this film, and there is much, it can be said that it is definitely getting a. lot. of. press.
Say what you will, I am completely enjoying the fact that people are talking. They are talking about solutions for the climate crisis. I have no idea if this back and forth will go anywhere, but at least it’s back in the spotlight.
This just came out on The Hill, the rebuttle in their own words. h/t lookout
[video:https://youtu.be/Bop8x24G_o0]
Comments
Ecollusion awareness ...
is not a bad thing. Centralized alternative power may not be a good option. Better discuss it before wasting money and resources. Chipping forests for fuel is clearly a bad idea, and is anything but "Green".
I continue to think we can live in harmony with the planet using local decentralized power generation. Lots of people currently are doing just that. Too bad the film didn't contrast the industrial approach with the success of individual systems.
However as you suggest, it is getting people talking and that is a good thing.
On another note. Georgia has opened up for business, and folks are out in force. Lots of young people in groups hanging out and reconnecting after the shut down. Very few masks are being worn...mainly just older folks. I believe this guarantees a second wave. The Gov. was panicked about the broke unemployment funds and would rather sacrifice citizens than the state budget.
Personally I only know one person who has had COVID. He recovered after mild symptoms.
Thanks for the OT. Have a good one!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
good morning Lookout. I agree on local decentralized
power, microgrids or at least minigrids, and distributed networks being the way to better get along with nature in a power dependent world.
Our neighbor's kid and his spouse had covid-19 and said it was horrible, worst sickness they've ever had or even imagined. This is a young healthy professional SoCal couple, non-smokers, and active. So it seems almost random how it hits people.
I hope GEorgia doesn't suffer too much as a result of its decision and its people's decisions and actions.
be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
morning lo
Just back from a long walk. Looks like we will be shutdown until the end of May here. Two months almost, now.
Overheard a guy talking on the phone at the harbor on my walk. Think he was a doctor. He said that he had never seen such gunk in the lungs before. Just awful.
Well, that was interesting. Looking like it's not a good thing for some folks. Also, the comment below from el about his neighbors. So a pulse oximeter does make sense if people are not sensing their lungs shutting down. Stranger and stranger.
Local decentralized power generation makes sense. Please point some links at me. Maybe you have already written about it and I missed that part of your excellent essays.
We are all fortunate in many ways. Take good care and have a good one.
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check out the ww this Sunday
Focusing on small scale generation.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
thx n/t
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Good morning magi. Thanks for that covid-19 clip, great
information and I forwarded it to a handful of family and such.
Yeah, democracy is dead, and with luck, so are the Dems. It is possible that we might come out of this with a multi-party system, though I suspect not too likely. If we did, would it help that much as long as we cannot transition back to a mixed or semi-socialist economic system is a seriously different question.
be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
hi el
Glad you liked the video. I thought it was very interesting. It appears that these docs are in close communication and sorting this out on the fly. I am getting a bit stir crazy. But on the other hand I am getting tons done and am busier than ever. How did that happen?
I keep a close eye on the SJmerc and the sacbee because they often have an early line on info from Stanford and UCSF med center. We are shutdown here until the end of May. You? And what about CA. I've lost track.
Thanks for all you do. Take good care and have a good one.
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We got Alameda County order to shut down thru end
of May. Later heard that it was the whole 9 county "greater bay area", then some other source said add you guys, but maybe exclude Sonoma. I think I then heard sometime during the evening that later in the day Newsome had said same-same for entire state.
I get periodic e-mails from Cal that talk about the whole UC system, Sta Cruz, UCSF & SF Med, San Diego and all that. Naturally, they don't cover Stanfoo unless it is some collaborative project,
take care, be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
just closed the beaches
in the whole state. Last weekend was a zoo here, a shit show, a boondoggle. The whole Bay Area came to our beaches apparently. I have a friend that lives a block up from the main beach and it was a riot talking to her on the phone. Our conversation was interrupted by... omg, there's a family with a bar-b-que; oh there's another group with no masks - there definitely not from here; my whole street is packed with cars and the cops are here giving tickets for parking violations...
New county directive
Heh
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Indeed, pix of a crowded Newport Beach were on the evening news
here in Germany. As was Newsom’s order, complete with some “vox pop” from one of the full-time lifeguards whose job it is to keep people off the beach at such a time.
For those less familiar with the geography, the “Beach Cities” extend down the southwestern coast of greater L.A., as opposed to being up in the SF Bay Area. Lived there for a couple of years in the 1970s.
We are just south of SF
And the 'whole' Silicon Valley comes here to the beaches from San Francisco down to Moss Landing. They need to stay home. They are closing them from 11am to 5pm. So that means I can walk on the beach in the morning. heh. LA is a whole 'nother matter.
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Found another good article
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinic...
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I posted a MedCram video by Dr. Seheult
several months ago which explains in great, readily understandable detail, the physiologic reasons for requiring a ventilator to treat patients with coronavirus. He also explains why a proper ventilator is required - it is not simply a matter of forcing air into the lungs.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ]
There are also videos from the coronavirus wards in China showing why it required so many nurses in the critical wards to look after a few patients. It takes five nurses and a doctor to safely turn a patient on a ventilator due to the fact that there are all kinds of tubes connected, ventilator, IV drips, suction, catheters plus the patient is completely sedated (they try to pull the intubation tube out if they are conscious). They have a 30 second window to fix something if things go wrong. The infectious wards needed a minimum 3 to 1 nurse/patient ratio for 24 hour care - that comes to 3000 nurses and doctors for a 1000 bed hospital setup to treat severe cases.
Hi cb
Yes I watched that when you posted it. They also have relatively untrained people using them with patients. They are figuring more stuff out every day. It’s good news that they can avoid them if they catch it early enough. I first read about doctors using the turning-on-stomach technique at Stanford months ago. This guy says the same thing about how much care ventilator patients need.
Thanks for all your posts. Have a good one.
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Good day, magi,
Many drugs under testing for covid 19, apparently, French testing nicotine others trying Pepcid and the Fauci news of remdesivir, which UNC-CH helped develop is of interest.
Ran across a small study that Green Tea Extract, exactly Teavigo, may help fibrosis; looking for a source the past two days. Another question for pulmo doc.
European lockdowns 'could avert 11,300 air pollution deaths'
Researchers say lockdowns prove benefits of reducing fossil fuels in a sustained and sustainable manner.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/european-lockdowns-avert-11300-ai...
So, leave it in the ground saves lives.
Thank you for today's OT and continue to be safe out there.
afternoon smiley
A lot of research is being done by many great minds. Certainly here in the Bay Area. Science. Right? It will take time though. Some things will help reduce the symptoms and then there may be a vaccine. But the virus will no doubt mutate. It seems that a lot of the medical profession is surprised at the uniqueness of this virus.
So here we have The Herb Room and Staff of Life in Santa Cruz. Call both of them and if they have what you need I will get it and mail it to you.
Homo sapiens sapiens just need to slow the fuck down. Already. Thanks for being here. Take very good care and have a good one.
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well put
the splitters are now trying to oppose freedom with safety
whew
question everything
Will COVID-19 Trigger Extinction of All Life on Earth?
Paper by Guy McPherson published in April 2020 Earth & Environmental Science Research & Reviews. Page and a half, complete article as PDF here
This is a succinct summary of what Guy has been mostly discussing for a few months, complete with references. Of particular interest, 1.73 C above 1750 baseline as of April 2018 has increased to 2 C by March 2020. 0.27 C in two years, or 0.135 C per year.
Have a look at this article to put that into context: The fatal road to +4°Celsius
Of particular interest, look at Table 1, column "Warming Rate C/yr", the last couple of years exceed other extinction level rates of temperature change by 1000 times or so. Also check the column "CO2 Change Rate ppm/year". The long term average for 1750-2020 is 0.415 ppm/year, double that of the K-T Impact of 65 million years ago, yet in recent years we've seen closer to 2 ppm/year. The current rate of change is simply off the charts.
Additionally, we have this: Meteorologists say 2020 on course to be hottest year since records began
See the full linked article for more details of what temperatures recorded where.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
howdy wd
Funny you should say that. Just talked to my daughter and she said the best thing that she can think of is for humans to go extinct. Shocker. Not. My other daughter got her undergrad in environment studies because of my rantings back in the 90s.
Thanks for the paper and articles. McPherson has been talking about this for a very long time. So now we will find out exactly what happens when there is no global dimming. I am surprised that the meteorologists are surprised. But, why would they know.
From your link to Arctic News
I read the whole Arctic News post. My daughter may get her wish. Too bad we have to take everything down with us. I wonder where Beckwith is on this. I have been taking a break. Time to get back to keeping up.
Thanks for everything. Take good care and have a good one.
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"no worse than the flu"
Some people keep insisting, based on any data they can scrounge, that the lethality rate of Covid-19 (deaths/infection) is no worse than that of the flu.
As it happens, determining whether to assign flu as the cause of death has many of the same problems as doing so for Covid-19. Nonetheless, people try. The number given typically runs in the range of 0.1% to 0.2% -- or 1/1000 to 2/1000.
So far this year, Covid-19 has killed at least 20,000 citizens of New York City -- probably more like 25k, maybe even as high as 30k. That number might surprise you, because you might know that the highest current "official" estimate of Covid-19 deaths for all of New York State is only ~23,000, and maybe, because you've been FUDded, you think that Covid-19 deaths are being over-reported.
In fact, the opposite is true, especially in hard-hit areas. Between March 11 and April 25th, at least 27,000 residents of NYC died, during a time when normally only about 6,000 would be expected to die. I say at least, because that number was tabulated on April 27th, and registration of deaths can lag by 1 to 2 weeks -- even when people are NOT dying at five or six times the expected rate.
Anyway, there are about 8,000,000 people in NYC, and at least 20,000 of them have died of Covid-19, and (20,000/8,000,000) is 2.5/1000. Yes, that's correct. Covid-19 has already killed more residents of NYC than you would expect the flu to kill if every single person in NYC got the flu in one season.
Just keepin' it real for ya.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Thanks for the breath of sanity
Every time a new set of data comes in I work out the CFR and it is usually around 1%. This is how science works: accumulation of evidence.
So all those right wing death cultists who want to reopen the economy and all the attention hounds (like John Ionnais) can stop cherry picking findings to fit their narrative and killing people as a side effect. They are the latest merchants of doubt and they can go start coughing their lungs out with the likes of Bolsonaro.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Something else I want to note, in response to
people who say, "Look eventually the disease is going to kill X% of the population, so we might as well rip off the bandaid," is that we're still figuring out how to treat this thing. We never did figure out how to treat the original SARS, but it was so fucking deadly we didn't have to -- it just burned itself out rather than raging through the population.
I consider your "1%" estimate to be a reasonable floor. It might be closer to 2%, and especially disturbing, it might be more like 5-10% for "susceptible" people (Over 60, with any of a half-dozen diseases that cumulatively afflict more than half of Americans in that age bracket) and much higher for "highly susceptible" people (80+, and already requiring extended care).
Meanwhile, as I may have noted elsewhere, disease outcomes are not limited to the binary Died/Survived scheme. We don't yet know the percentages (and associated human, social and economic costs) of complications for the survivors of severe cases, which may represent as many as 10% of all infections. (People who believe that some huge fraction (90%? more?) of cases are asymptomatic or extremely mild might be right, but that's not the picture I'm getting from the data.)
And I'm weirded out to find myself on the other side of this debate from John Ioannidis, whose work I generally admire.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
My guesstimate for the CFR has been about 1%, too.
(I have done modeling in a past life; teaching is a second career.) If we start helping people in this country before their lips are turning blue and also keep from flooding the hospitals that sounds about right. Right now it does look like it is a little above 1% but the numbers are based on such flaky data. I am constantly bemused by all the numbers reported to six or more significant figures.
I also agree with others here that the current CFR could come down with better treatments.
I am scared that the CFR in Brazil will be much higher. People in the favelas and in remote rural areas will have difficulty accessing even the most basic supportive care if this hits a lot of people in their community at the same time. A lot of younger people without other serious health issues may not be able to get oxygen for the few days they need it until they can recover. Inability to access basic medical care will make this into a much worse disaster. If whole families get ill at about the same time it may even be difficult to deal with sanitation and proper nutrition for people with serious cases.
The evil done by a person like Bolsonaro is almost incomprehensible.
normally people get short of breath
When the oxygen levels in their blood is much higher. The Dr. Levitan said that they are finding that people are adjusting to the low levels of O2 and not short of breath. What they are seeing in patients that arrive at the hospital is oxygen levels that rival those of climbers on Everest. This is why they are in such bad shape. At 9:33 in the video.
Take good care and have a good one.
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Yes, thanks Magi, that video was very good and insightful
One thing that jumps out, among all the interesting and helpful information, is that the death rate, and rate of serious complications, that have been observed so far may be misleading if we say “the virus” directly caused all these things.
Based on what he says in the video, many of the deaths and complications may be due to the early lack of understanding the clinical course of the disease, and the early overuse of ventilators and other interventions that now appear to often cause more problems than they solve.
The novelty of the disease and a basic lack of medical knowledge about what they were dealing with killed people, and left others with serious long-term damage; CDC and other expert advice on what symptoms to look for and when to seek medical help were wrong, and once you did go to a hospital, what they did (to) for you was also often wrong for many patients.
Now they are learning, and changing the treatment protocols, and seeing better outcomes, and trying to get the word out. So I think the CFR and the number of patients with serious complications (often caused by the extreme intervention of being on a vent) will also go down. Someone who gets the virus 6 months from now will have a much better chance than people who get it now or those who got it earlier. Another reason to lay low for as long as possible, imo. And definitely important to keep in mind when looking at outcomes statistics over the first few months, when doctors honestly had no idea what they were dealing with yet.
Hola cs n az
Great comment. Treatment is changing rapidly and looks to be getting a bit more coherent as time passes.
Take good care and have a good one.
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afternoon hawkfish
I want Bolsonaro to go away. Very far away.
Forgot to say...
Take good care and have a good one.
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Like maybe a planet around Arcturus
about 36.7 light-years away, and that may still be too close for comfort.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Lol, tom
That would work. Heh.
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hi ur
Thanks for keepin' it real. Good stuff. Will pass that on to folks here.
Take good care and have a good one.
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just for the halibut if yearn into it
pass that way again
and
learn to forget
take a shot
cheers
question everything
afternoon q
Thanks for lightening it up. Good stuff.
Be well and have a very good one.
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Which is it?
"Will COVID-19 Trigger Extinction of All Life on Earth?
Paper by Guy McPherson published in April 2020 Earth & Environmental Science Research & Reviews. Page and a half, complete article as PDF here"....etc.
The problem with McPherson's paper is this: if we keep industrial society going and make more C02, we will have global warming and we will die. However, if human society stops industrial society and makes much less CO2, we will have global warming and we will die. Apparently we are screwed either way. Which makes no sense at all.
I don't know of any real scientist who believes this hooey. I do know of at least one real scientist who decided to see if the temporary shutdown of industrial society was having any effect on global CO2 levels. Dr. Roy Spencer (who wrote the book on how to measure global atmospheric temperatures via satellite mounted instruments) looked at the CO2 measurements being reported by the Mona Loa atmospheric monitoring station in Hawaii for the month of March. Apparently, there has been no significant change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Take a look:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/04/march-2020-co2-levels-at-mauna-loa-...
slight disagreement
regardless of scientific measurements
hearing from people around the globe
the skies are clearer probably due to
less carbons being burned
think about it
an improvement
question everything
roy spencer is a denialist fraud.
nobody is expecting CO2 concentrations to suddenly decline because we stopped adding CO2. it would be surprising if they did.
and here (my emphasis added):
you are completely wrong. You're ignoring the argument, dismissing it with "makes no sense", which is just another way of saying, "Huh? I don't get it, therefore it must be wrong."
It's all about the difference between a very fast effect (less sunlight being blocked by soot -- not CO2 -- means higher temperatures RIGHT NOW) versus an excruciatingly slow one (gradual build-up of CO2 = higher temperatures in the future).
The argument (and here I'm merely explaining, not advocating) is really quite simple: The true magnitude of our CO2 disaster has been masked by the countervailing effect of filling the air with soot from burning coal and other relatively dirty things. That cooling shield effect is extremely temporary -- the soot settles out of the air really quickly. And if/when we stop pumping more soot into the air, the air will clear in a matter of weeks, not decades. And as soon as the air clears, the amount of heat coming down to us from the sun is going to immediately rise, with a concomitant immediate rise in temperatures.
It makes perfect sense. Perfectly, horribly, awful sense. There's no contradiction at all. There's only a horrible conundrum for humanity, if McPherson's hypothesis is correct.
Personally, I tend to doubt anything that is said by Guys. By which I mean, guys named Guy. What's that all about, anyway? It's like naming your kid, Kid. Who would do that? It can't be good for the psyche.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
damage done
consequences follow
best prepare for it
make shade
question everything
Well, I've been planting trees, but that too
is a long-run kinda thing, ineffective against a sharp uptick in the influx of solar radiation.
For now, I'm just mostly hoping that McPherson's cipherin' is off.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Also reflective surfaces, rooftops, etc. s/b white.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
In the mini-series Brideshead Revisited
There was a character named boy. I was very confused at first until I figured it out. Then I asked myself the same question. Who would name someone "boy"?
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
I've forgotten that.
No recollection of the character.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
It was a small part
In the scene where they go out on the town with a bunch of friends and get really drunk.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Doesn't that describe the general plot?
Okay, not really, I know, that was a joke.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Well, yes, it kinda does
In a micro way. But yeah, the plot had a lot of onion like layers too.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Blankets and Umbrellas
Greenhouse gasses act as blankets to hold heat in. They are transparent to visible light but opaque to infrared. Sunlight, largely visible light (we evolved to see the most abundant part of the spectrum) hits a surface like the ground or dark ocean water and whatever visible light isn't reflected (from ice for example) is absorbed and reradiated as infrared (heat) which is trapped by the blanket. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years, methane decays into CO2 with a half-life of decades, etc.
Aerosols act as umbrellas to protect us from heating. They are particles small enough to remain suspended in the air for a period of time and reflect visible light back into space. Black soot, for example from a forest fire, will absorb everything. Clouds reflect much of the light back into space. Other materials are in between. Dust, smoke, fog, mist.
Some are natural, like dust from a volcano. Others are artificial, like construction dust. Some we regard as pollution, like sulfates from burning coal containing sulfur, others like dust from farmers working the fields aren't regarded as pollution. But they all reflect sunlight.
Aerosols settle out of the atmosphere quickly, on the order of weeks, and are continually replaced.
Some of the papers referenced conclude that global warming levels would be 2-3 degrees C higher right now in the absence of artificial aerosols. This is in line with results from paleoclimatology.
The guy with the diesel pickup in front of you on the road is producing both blankets and umbrellas. The blanket (CO2) remains for thousands of years, the umbrella (the visible smoke) washes out in a matter of weeks.
We're running a global experiment of letting the umbrellas vanish (notice how many people are remarking on how clean the air is now?) while the blankets remain. Sure, we're adding blankets at a lower rate, but the blankets from the last 250 years are all still there.
What we would expect to observe is rapid warming. The last article says we're observing rapid warming.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
One of the best interviews I have seen on this topic.
We have already ordered a couple of pulse oximeters.
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Hi ft
Yeah, I thought so too. These docs all over the world are communicating with each other and adjusting as things becomes clear. (My daughter, a nurse said to me... yes, mom that’s why it’s called novel.)
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My husband and I are 69.
We are hoping that we can dodge this thing as long as possible while the science of dealing with it improves. I think they probably put too many people on ventilators in the beginning, which may have added to the death count (not to mention the long term effect issue).
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
Agree
There are many unknowns yet and time is on our side. They are figuring out more each day.
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