I keep getting told that the vast majority of Bernie supporters are going to fall in line obediently behind Hillary in November. The justification for this is that it is what has “always” happened “historically”. I find this a flawed argument and here is why:

Historically, the people voting were the ones who are registered members of a party, who always vote and always fall in line for their party. Bernie’s supporters are largely people who are independents and/or never bothered to vote before, because they saw both parties are corrupt and/or felt their vote wouldn’t count. Many refused to vote against someone and would only vote for someone they could believe in. Bernie made them believe, and Hillary openly destroyed that, simultaneously confirming every single reason they refused to vote before. Fear never forced their vote before this primary and fear won’t force their vote this November, certainly not for someone who disenfranchised them in the primary while calling them stupid children for wanting fair treatment and a government that represents them. And that’s not counting the lifelong Democrats who did always fall in line before, but have now lost their last lingering illusions about the party. Lifelong (former) Democrats like me.

Historically, the establishment never stole an election using voter suppression and election fraud so blatant it was only marginally less obvious than just stacking up the two candidates votes at the convention, burning their opponents pile in front of everyone, then declaring unanimous support for their own candidate of choice. There has been suppression and fraud in the past, but back then they at least didn’t do it out in the open. This time, they didn’t even try to hide it. Now they’re calling us crazy conspiracy theorists for not pretending we didn’t see what everyone clearly saw.

Historically, the establishment candidate didn’t insult the opposition’s supporters to their faces. The candidates themselves were fair game for slander and lies, but the actual voters were not slandered and lied about, because the establishment knew it was necessary to treat the voters with some modicum of respect if they wanted their votes in November. The voters were lied to but not lied about.

Historically too, a candidate like Bernie should have crashed and burned shortly after announcing. Historically, a mainstream media blackout was the death knell for a campaign. Historically, not dropping to one knee before Big Money was suicide for any candidate’s political pursuits. Historically, even if such a candidate made it to and through the voting, they could only realistically expect about 5-10% of the vote collectively. At best. Being competitive was a pipe dream and the idea of actually winning was a joke. Such a candidate could expect his 15 minutes of fame, then collect his participation trophy and a pat on the head, “deliver” his voters to the winner like a pizza, then slink off to miserable obscurity.

I’ve heard about what can be expected “historically” since Bernie announced, and based on that I’ve been expected to just give up and vote for Hillary. Yet history has been consistently wrong every time. The thing is that historical observations are not a set of rules like in trigonometry or something. What happened historically does not become an immutable law of the universe that can never be changed or eliminated. If it was, blacks would still be slaves, women wouldn’t be voting, and America wouldn’t even exist in the first place. Because “historically”, monarchy, slavery, and females as chattel were just the way things were, and there was no point in thinking things could be any different.

What I’m saying is that history is worthless right now. Nothing in this primary has adhered to history, and I see no reason that the future will either. The past is the past, but the future is infinitely plastic and changeable. We’re at a major turning point now, and someday the history books will reflect that.

And then, hopefully, people will say, “Free college, universal health care, and basic minimum income are historically the way things are, and they are good. We have no intention of changing them!”