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Happy Chuseok!

Submitted by soryang on Sun, 10/05/2025 - 7:59pm

It's the Korean harvest festival holiday Oct. 5-9. 추석; 秋夕; lit. 'autumn eve.' Big holiday in South Korea 15th day of the 8th lunar month. Variations of the holiday are celebrated in the other East Asian countries.

The story below on the US SSBN missile launches in September was just published, I believe by Simone Chun. As far as I know these launches are unprecedented. Usually, I thought they'd launch just one as a test exercise. Looks like it drew a reaction in North Korea.

A Lit Fuse in East Asia: Washington’s Nuclear Provocations Undermine Korea’s Sovereignty.

In September, Washington appeared to have crossed a dangerous threshold in East Asia. From September 15 to 19, 2025, “Iron Mace”—a nuclear-operations tabletop exercise with South Korean forces that began in 2024 under U.S. Strategic Command—was expanded into a U.S.–Japan–South Korea trilateral exercise, bringing Japan’s Self-Defense Forces into the mix.

Concurrently, U.S. Strategic Command delivered a powerful display of force. Between September 17 and 21, an Ohio-class strategic submarine off the California coast fired four Trident-II submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles in rapid succession. A routine inspection normally involves one or two missiles; quadruple launches signal something else entirely. Each missile can carry W76-2 tactical nuclear warheads, and a single Ohio-class submarine typically carries twenty—up to 240 warheads per vessel.

Then, on September 23, that same class of submarine surfaced in Subic Bay off northern Luzon Island in the Philippines.

Takeaways
A U.S.–Japan–Korea trilateral nuclear exercise, multiple Trident-II missile launches off California, and the sudden appearance of an Ohio-class submarine in Philippine waters formed a coordinated show of nuclear force aimed squarely at North Korea, China, and Russia. Viewed together, these events reveal an unmistakable pattern of U.S. nuclear saber-rattling in Asia.

Then we have the new Reaper deployment:

When I think about the use drones have been put to, specifically in the North Korean context, by former President Yoon Seok-yeol, and Kim Jong-un before that, I wonder about this move-

Remember we had a few South Korean drones entering North Korean airspace in October and early November 2024 at low altitude, one of which crashed inside North Korea. Another reportedly buzzed one of Kim's residences. The Russian embassy reported they heard one of the drones flying at low altitude over Pyongyang. There was some speculation that these flights may have been provocations to induce a military conflict of some kind with North Korea to serve as a pretext for martial law by Yoon's administration. In January 2023, it was reported that North Korea had flown several drones into South Korea after the South resumed flying propaganda balloons over the DMZ into North Korea. These flights took place in Dec. 2022.

It's likely the US drones are there solely for surveillance of the region, to monitor Chinese military activity, and perhaps to provide increased security for the upcoming APEC conference in Gyeongju which Xi and Trump are expected to attend, Oct 31, Nov 1, or thereabouts.

I hope we don't have any Gary Powers type event.

Another problematic episode last week creating something of a South Korean cyber crisis:

From Rashid's Guardian article:

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, being hosted in the south-eastern city of Gyeongju at the end of October, has heightened security concerns, with the leaders of the US, China and other regional powers set to attend.

Insufficient system redundancy in the national data center? The cause appears to have been a battery fire, described in the article. After the data center disaster, I saw that President Lee had a televised meeting with Sam Altman.

More than six years after "sometimes you gotta walk" at Hanoi, Choe Son-hui, North Korean Foreign Affairs Minister continues to elevate North Korea's profile. Article raises the question of whether Xi will visit Pyongyang Oct. 10. Kim Jong-un shared the viewing platform with Putin and Xi at the recent Chinese liberation day celebration in Beijing.

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Submitted by soryang on Sun, 10/05/2025 - 9:40pm
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Launch was in Atlantic, not the Pacific, according to reports.

US Navy test-fires unarmed Trident nuclear-capable missiles

The missiles were fired from a submerged submarine and landed in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the release.

Airmen were informed that the area was a no-fly zone and mariners were instructed to remain out of the area for the test.

D5 missiles were developed in the 1980s and the missiles were given a “life-extension refresh” in 2017 to extend their lifespan into the 2040s, the release said.

Also this report indicates it was a cruise missile version of the Ohio Class SSGN that surfaced in the Philippines.

U.S. Guided-missile Sub Makes Rare Appearance in the Philippines

A U.S. Navy guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles arrived for a port visit to the Philippines last week during its Pacific patrol. The USS Ohio (SSGN-726) arrived on September 23 at the former U.S. naval base at Subic Bay and moored alongside submarine tender USS Frank Cable (AS-40). Ohio is one of four U.S. nuclear ballistic missile submarines that were retrofitted to carry the long-range Tomahawk missiles. The boats can deploy for up to two years at a time, alternating between two crews that swap every few months.

So her report was misleading, and more alarming than it should have been. The Navy also said the test were not a reaction to any events. However, I'll take that with a grain of salt also.

on edit: added comment

U.S. Guided-missile Sub Makes Rare Appearance in the Philippines

The Navy is intentional about announcing a region where an SSGN is operating as a signal of U.S. military power.

Interesting that they also revealed this:

USS Georgia (SSBN-729) deployed in September last year and is believed to be operating in U.S. Central Command. Georgia was part of the Operation Midnight Hammer strikes on Iran nuclear sites in June.

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語必忠信 行必正直

Submitted by QMS on Sun, 10/05/2025 - 11:08pm
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.
.

as is typical of US military info in general
if they can pretend the 'good guys' are in charge
of every geo/maritime theater in the world
then *we* are winning without actual actions

don't buy it

smells fishy to me

provocation writ large

thanks for staying-up on this front

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Zionism is a social disease

Submitted by soryang on Mon, 10/06/2025 - 6:54am
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@QMS

To me there is definitely a "chest beating" quality to the missile launches no matter where they took place. And the omnipresence aspect of the military operations, is definitely misplaced and as MacGregor points out, not a winning strategy. Simone whom I believe published this, didn't reveal her source. I shouldn't have relied on her report without checking it first. The mistake about the nature of the sub in the Pacific is one I would expect from someone who doesn't follow military matters. The mistake concerning the location of the launch positions for the missile tests could have been a leak. The last launch from that area for Tridents was two years earlier from what I can tell.

Drawing attention to the Trident missile testing in such an extravagant way, is so Hegseth, and does looks like compensation for being overextended.

More of the same from Kim-

This is while President Lee of South Korea proposes separated family contacts between North and South.

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語必忠信 行必正直

Submitted by QMS on Mon, 10/06/2025 - 8:11am
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@soryang

.
you are obviously more up on these
details than me, kinda a shade-tree
observer trying to make sensible comments
on things not fully understood.

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Zionism is a social disease

Submitted by soryang on Tue, 10/07/2025 - 4:09am
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@QMS @QMS @QMS

...is reactive to western actions or acts of South Korea. A lot of Americans assume that if anyone was to initiate war on the peninsula, it would be Kim Jong-un, because he's a dictator, insane, etc. I've felt that he and his father were in a disadvantaged position, due to an embargo, much like Cuba's, and then additionally so, after the UN sanctions imposed after his development of nuclear weapons. They used the nuclear weapons program to gain leverage on the west. When the west failed to perform during the Agreed Framework, they resumed the weapons program.

Regardless of possession of nuclear weapons, the only advantage was to achieve some level of deterrence against aggression by the South and/or the US, and to achieve some space to having their foreign policy dictated by China or Russia. The US has consistently rejected a step by step approach to North Korea, it was and is, as far as I can tell, still the old "maximum pressure" policy that governs the US approach. China and Russia supported the UN sanctions for some time, until the recent resumption of cold war 2.0. I don't think Russia complies with the sanctions regime at all since the full blown Ukraine war started. There is a grudging amount of what I consider to be non-military trade between China and North Korea. I think it's taking a more tempered approach than Russia, not willing to damage any potential for improved relations with Japan and South Korea, while the US now appears in the role of perhaps alienating both with its trade policy and demands for excessive military contributions.

Sanai Takaichi, the LDP leader in Japan is the wild card now. What approach will she take on these matters? Will she abandon Ishiba's more moderate approach to Korean affairs? I think President Lee is trying to steer a middle course, and wants to facilitate greater stability and lessen military tension. The Trump administration has so much on its plate right now with military tensions elsewhere, I would let things alone, and not provoke any confrontations, but who knows. Are they capable of managing a rational policy? His speeches to the generals and his speech at Norfolk for the Navy 250th anniversary evinced a lack of familiarity with these matters. In 2019 he just let Bolton and Pompeo ditch his overtures to North Korea, which was unwise imo, and I think subsequent events have since proven. I'm sure China feels the same way. Russia will do whatever is to its strategic advantage. Providing military technical aid, and monetary support or whatever it can afford is to its advantage.

Thanks for asking QMS. Gotta go, having kind of family crisis here. See you later!

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Submitted by enhydra lutris on Mon, 10/06/2025 - 11:59am
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Thanks for the post and info
be well and have a good one

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