Evening Blues Preview 8-26-15

This evening's music features r&b singer and sax player Bull Moose Jackson.

Here are some stories from tonight's posting...

Inquiry Weighs Whether ISIS Analysis Was Distorted

The Pentagon’s inspector general is investigating allegations that military officials have skewed intelligence assessments about the United States-led campaign in Iraq against the Islamic State to provide a more optimistic account of progress, according to several officials familiar with the inquiry.

The investigation began after at least one civilian Defense Intelligence Agency analyst told the authorities that he had evidence that officials at United States Central Command — the military headquarters overseeing the American bombing campaign and other efforts against the Islamic State — were improperly reworking the conclusions of intelligence assessments prepared for policy makers, including President Obama, the government officials said. ...

The prospect of skewed intelligence raises new questions about the direction of the government’s war with the Islamic State, and could help explain why pronouncements about the progress of the campaign have varied widely.

Centcom Skewed ISIS War Intel To Be More Upbeat

Inspectors General Inform Congress Intel Was Likely 'Reworked'

The perennial positivity of all public Pentagon assessments on the war against ISIS, despite major, glaring losses on the ground, has been a matter of no small controversy for awhile, and has also successfully kept the elected officials who are on the receiving end of those assessments maintaining the war strategy as-is. ...

According to one of the DIA analysts, the agency was providing “draft” versions of their analyses to Centcom, and Centcom was editing the conclusions wholesale to make the war sound like it was going better, then passing along the edited versions to policymakers.

Details of exactly which reports were the result of Centcom’s editing are as yet unclear, but it does explain why, in the wake of every major loss to ISIS, Centcom officials would start crowing about the great progress they are making and how overall, the war is on track. ...

How much of this will ever go public is unclear, but the implications are potentially enormous, as both the White House insistence on staying the course in the war and Congressional talk of doubling down were predicated on these Pentagon assessments that the war was going more or less acceptably, and were subsequently deliberately misled by faulty conclusions being appended to reports which, conclusions aside, were painting the war as going worse and worse.

Bradley Manning, the Nuremberg Charter and Refusing to Collaborate with War Crimes

Can the Supreme Court Force Congress to Own the War on ISIS?

Judicial intervention may be the only way left to break the political impasse on authorizing Obama’s use of force.

The biggest casualty in the struggle against the Islamic State so far has been the American Constitution. One year into the battle, the president and Congress threaten to destroy all serious restraints against open-ended war-making by the commander-in-chief. President Obama waited for half a year before even submitting a draft resolution authorizing his initiative. But it is now obvious that the Republican-controlled Congress finds it politically convenient to stand on the sidelines and let Obama take the blame for the escalating instability. That leaves only the Supreme Court to halt this transformation of the president into a latter-day King George III.

As The Atlantic’s Garrett Epps rightly emphasizes, allowing the president to go unchallenged will produce a terrible precedent. As the rise and rise of Donald Trump suggests, future presidents may make aggressive use of their powers as commander in chief—and they will predictably point to Obama’s unilateral war on ISIS to justify their own military adventures. ...

Existing case-law establishes that individual soldiers can go to court if they are ordered into a combat zone to fight a war that they believe is unconstitutional. During the closing years of the Vietnam War, two federal courts of appeal carefully considered, and unanimously affirmed, the standing of soldiers to bring such complaints.

Heh, note that Obama didn't call to apologize for spying on Japanese officials, he called to apologize because the spying was revealed to the public:

Obama calls Japanese leader to express regret for WikiLeaks spying scandal

Barack Obama has called Japan’s leader to express regret over recent WikiLeaks allegations that the US had spied on senior Japanese officials.

Obama told prime minister Shinzo Abe that he thought the trouble the revelations caused Abe and his government was regrettable, a Japanese government spokesman told reporters. ...

Abe told Obama that the allegations could undermine trust between the countries, and reiterated his request for an investigation of the matter.

Request to impeach Guatemalan president approved by supreme court

The country’s congress will decide whether President Otto Perez, whose administration is reeling from corruption allegations, will be removed from office

The Guatemalan supreme court on Tuesday approved a request by the country’s attorney general to impeach President Otto Perez over his suspected involvement in a racket to siphon customs revenue from the government, and passed the matter to congress for approval.

A number of corruption investigations have devastated Perez’s cabinet and led to the resignation in May of vice-president Roxana Baldetti.

On Sunday, Perez angrily dismissed corruption allegations that have been leveled against him by prosecutors, and he adamantly said he would not resign despite mounting pressure on the government and calls for his impeachment as a presidential election looms. ...

Perez’s conservative administration has spent much of this year mired in public protests and scandals over corruption allegations against senior officials, several of whom the retired general fired during a cabinet purge in May.

History's Lesson for Climate Action: No Other Choice 'But Mass Mobilization'

Joint statement ahead of UN climate talks in Paris declares humanity is "at crossroads" and that only hope is to stop digging up and burning world's remaining fossil fuel reserves

With less than 100 days until high-level UN climate talks take place in Paris, key leaders from the global climate justice movement have come together with a joint statement that affirms their belief that only mass popular mobilizations across the planet demanding a drastic reckoning with the world's fossil fuel paradigm will suffice when it comes to confronting the increasingly dire and intertwined threats of neoliberal capitalism and planetary climate change.

In a pair of "concretely" expressed demands aimed at world leaders, the signatories to the statement say governments must "end subsidies to the fossil fuel industry" and move swiftly to "freeze fossil fuel extraction by leaving untouched 80% of all existing fossil fuel reserves." ...

"For more than 20 years," the statement declares, "governments have been meeting, yet greenhouse gas emissions have not decreased and the climate keeps changing. The forces of inertia and obstruction prevail, even as scientific warnings become ever more dire." ...

Acknowledging their set of demands "implies a great historical shift," the signers of the statement say the globalized justice movement for will no longer "wait for states" to make the needed changes on schedules dictated by the powerful fossil fuel corporations, large agro-businesses, financial elites, or governments in the thrall of such interests.

"Slavery and apartheid did not end because states decided to abolish them," the statement reads. "Mass mobilisations left political leaders no other choice."

Also of interest:

Giant Coal Company Bankruptcy Reveals Secret Ties to Climate Denial, GOP Dark Money Groups

What We Don’t Know About Policing, Race and Mental Illness

Gil Scott-Heron: the revolution lives on

Lockheed Martin Took Taxpayer Dollars, Spent Them Lobbying for More Dollars

The Civilian Toll From the War Against ISIS Is Huge. Why Isn’t the Press Covering It?

Jorge Ramos Commits Journalism, Gets Immediately Attacked by Journalists

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An August assessment report by Save the Children-Yemen on the humanitarian situation in the country of 26 million noted that over 21 million people, or 80 percent of the population, require urgent relief in the form of food, fuel, medicines, sanitation and shelter.

The health sector is on the verge of collapse, and the threat of famine looms large, with an estimated 12 million people facing "critical levels of food insecurity", the organisation said.

In a sign of what O'Brien denounced as a blatant "disregard for human life" by all sides in the conflict, children have paid a heavy price for the fighting: 400 kids have lost their lives, while 600 of the estimated 22,000 wounded are children.

In a statement published shortly after the airstrikes, Edward Santiago, Save the Children's Country Director for Yemen, said, "We don't yet know the full extent of the damage at Hodeida but we can't lose a day; time is running out for Yemen's children who are already at risk of starvation, disease, and abuse."

He said there are already 5.9 million children going hungry, 624,000 displaced and about 7.3 million sick and wounded kids who are not receiving medical attention.

Even as civilians' needs multiply, funding for the humanitarian response remains slow.

U.N. agencies say they have only received 282 million dollars for the response plan, just 18 percent of the 1.6-billion-dollar sum requested. Even if Saudi Arabia makes good on its pledge of 274 million dollars it will only bring funding up to 33 percent of the total required to adequately meet the crisis.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) said on August 19 that its operations, too, are "grossly underfunded"; the agency has received just 16 percent of an urgent 182.6-million-dollar funding appeal.

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Iraq

A foreign-exchange crunch because of a drop in oil prices could force a devaluation of the dinar and risk making the fight against Islamic State militants even tougher. The nation, currently OPEC’s biggest producer after Saudi Arabia, is dependent on oil revenue to fund its operations on the battlefield and quell growing unrest over the economy.
Dollar reserves tumbled about 20 percent to $59 billion as of July 23 since the fighting escalated a year before, and the losses are accelerating. In the first 25 days of August, the central bank sold $4.6 billion of currency to keep the dinar at a pegged rate, a daily outflow of about $184 million, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“Iraq’s perfect storm means the country will continue to lose reserves until the government of Iraq decides to devalue the dinar,” said Frank Gunter, author of “The Political Economy of Iraq.” The currency could weaken as much as 20 percent over the next year, he said.

iraqreserves.PNG
Oil is 95% of Iraq's revenue. Because of the fall in oil prices, Iraq's fiscal deficits are expected to reach double-digits (a $21 Billion deficit on a $102 Billion budget) while its sovereign debt has been downgraded to junk.

The inability of the Iraqi government to provide services has led to massive street protests.

The July 16 killing of Muntazar al-Hilfi by police in al-Madina, north of Basra, during a protest for improved services was redolent of the death of Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi on Jan. 4, 2011, which sparked the Arab Spring revolutions. Hilfi’s killing led to a series of massive protests throughout the central and southern cities that have continued until the time of this writing. Protesters are standing against rampant corruption in the country and the deterioration of services.
The religious authority in Najaf showed complete and full support to the protesters and called for promptly meeting their demands.

Protest tensions escalated further with China's "Black Monday" earlier this week.
Iraq has been forced to impose austerity cuts and raise taxes in order to get new IMF loans.

The danger of falling oil prices to the War on ISIS isn't limited to just Iraq.
Baghdad's biggest ally in this war isn't the United States. It's Iran, who is also suffering from the oil bust.

Iran, the world’s fifth largest crude producer, has set aside almost nothing for oil investments this year because of the drop in prices.
Money put into the industry dropped from about $40 billion for 2011 and 2012 combined to $6 billion last year, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Tuesday, according to the ministry’s news website Shana...
Iran’s oil industry needs $100 billion to $500 billion over the next five years, Iran’s state-run news agency IRNA reported on Aug. 3, citing Saeed Ghavampour, general manager of the oil ministry’s strategic planning.

Iran needs $130 oil to balance its budget (oil is currently at $39).

Almost forgotten in this war by most Americans is the Syrian government. Assad is completely dependent on both Iran and Russia, who is also getting hurt by the low oil prices.

Publicly, Iran gave Syria a $3.6 billion credit line in July 2013, which was largely spent on oil imports, and Assad signed a further $1 billion deal with Tehran in July this year. The U.N. envoy to Syria has previously said that Tehran has been supporting Syria to the tune of $35 billion per year. Both Iran and Russia have consistently asserted that Assad must remain in power for a political solution in Syria to be reached, with Moscow proposing that the Syrian president become part of an anti-ISIS coalition alongside the U.S. and rebel forces.

Syria's army is no longer able to launch offenses against ISIS. It's collapse would leave ISIS the undisputed power in Syria.

For a while, ISIS managed to get some of their money through black market oil smuggling, however, that card has already been played. U.S. bombings have destroyed Syria's oil indusry. Therefore falling oil prices will now only hurt our allies.

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Ahmad is from Yarmouk Camp, an unofficial refugee camp in Damascus that has functioned as the center of Palestinian life in Syria for half a century. At the end of 2012, a Syrian army bombing campaign turned the camp into a battlefield. Yarmouk became, and remains, one of the most desperate humanitarian situations in the world. Its border is sealed by the Syrian government, blocking food, water, and medicine from entering. Snipers encircle the perimeter, targeting anyone who dares to venture outside. Reports say its remaining residents—the population has plummeted from 200,000 to an estimated 8,000—survive on stray animals, grass, and dirt. In April, the camp was violently seized by the so-called Islamic State widely known as ISIS...
According to UNRWA’s annual report (PDF), 117 Palestinian refugees were sent back to Syria in 2014. So far this year, there have already been around 50 forcible deportations. “It’s not in accordance with international law,” says Gunness, the organization’s spokesman. “We’ve made our objections perfectly clear, but the policies continue.” Last May, Human Rights Watch documented three dozen Palestinians from Syria returned from Lebanon into the war zone in one day. Egypt has been criticized for detaining hundreds for months at a time and forcing hundreds more to return to Syria.
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Margin-Debt.PNG

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shaharazade's picture

as I can't even figure out what this is chart is measuring. What is margin debt and net credit balance? Is this some kind of measuring the Wall Street casino's funny money? The lingo is beyond me. Crazy that people globally are at the mercy of these rat bastards.

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lotlizard's picture

The way I understand the word "margin" goes like this:

Say you think stock XYZ is going to double. You can invest $100 of your own money and make $100 profit when the price doubles and you sell.

By buying "on margin," you can invest $100 of your own money plus (for example) $900 borrowed from the brokerage that handles your stock trades. When the price doubles and you sell, your original $1000 of stock gets you $2000. Out of that, you repay the $900 (plus a little interest) and now have your original $100 back, plus $1000 profit (minus the interest you paid).

What did you do here? You used margin to make $1000 profit (ten times as much) instead of $100. You used margin to leverage your investment by a factor of 10.

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Big Al's picture

government "classifies" as secret or above. There's something like 1 million government and private citizens that
have a secret clearance or above. They classify any and everything as secret or above as some kind of fucking
imperialist game, it just keeps getting worse and worse. The public can't even come close to half the shit our government
does because they say it's secret. We can't see what they do but they can see everything that we do.

Then those that rule us manufacture a scandal involving classified emails and everybody is all aghast that Clinton could
do such a thing. "Those were secrets dammit!! She has no right!!"

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shaharazade's picture

who worked on weapon contracts for the DoJ via Lockheed and Boeing. He had to have a security clearance review once a year. I was hanging out with a gang of budding young hippies who sported peace signs flowers in their hair and were active in the civil rights anti-war movement. Worse their parents we're liberal commie college professors. The FBI came and warned him he needed to do something about this dangerous situation because it put his security clearance at risk. I was told I could no longer participate in activism or hang out with these subversive teenage girl traitors and arty folk subversives. That didn't work and despite his suspect children's subversive activities he kept his clearance. A few years later my brother moved to Canada to dodge the draft with the help of the Quakers, which must have freaked the FBI right out. So none of this is new they just seem to have expanded the security state to the point where everybody is is a potential security threat.

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isn't it past time we had an official policy for this?

When a U.S. citizen going by the name “Abu Abdullah al-Amriki” blew himself up in a suicide attack in Baiji, Iraq, this month, he was the most recent example of a troubling trend: the roughly 200 Americans who have traveled or attempted to travel to Iraq and Syria to fight for the Islamic State...
A new report by the investigative website Bellingcat, released Wednesday, takes the first systematic look at these “other foreign fighters.”

The report finds that at least 108 Americans — including one woman — have made the journey to Iraq and Syria to take on the Islamic State, highlighting the global nature of the conflict and the relative ease of recruitment and travel to the battlefield. It’s a dangerous undertaking, and one American has already been killed in the fighting. Massachusetts resident Keith Broomfield, 36, died while fighting with a Kurdish militia in Syria earlier this year. Broomfield, who had no military experience, traveled to the war zone after a Christian religious awakening.

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shaharazade's picture

endless war on terra has always had a crusading aspect to it. Bullets with cross on them in Afghanistan and fundamentalist military chaplains, it's like the second crusade. Wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross. Obama likes to yak on about extremist jhadist's but never nentions the fact that we have our own homegrown militant religious fundies reeking havoc both here in der Homeland and in the ME. Me thinks they are a handy distraction that keeps the pot stirred and fear going..Even the militarized killer cops seem like brain damaged fundies.

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It looks like Bernie doesn't only back Israel.

But another problem is the little that he has articulated in terms of foreign policy -- the foreign policy issue that he's been most passionate about really -- is extremely regressive and incredibly dangerous. That issue is the role of Saudi Arabia. Sanders has actually pushed for the repressive regime to engage in more intervention in the Mideast.

In discussing ISIS, Sanders invariably has talked about Saudi Arabia as the solution rather than a large part of the problem. It's couched in language that seems somewhat critical, but the upshot is we need more Saudi influence and intervention in the region. In effect, more and bigger proxy wars, which have already taken the lives of hundreds of thousands in Syria and could even further rip apart Iraq, Libya and other countries.

He's said this repeatedly -- and prominently. In February with Wolf Blitzer on CNN:

This war is a battle for the soul of Islam and it's going to have to be the Muslim countries who are stepping up. These are billionaire families all over that region. They've got to get their hands dirty. They've got to get their troops on the ground. They've got to win that war with our support. We cannot be leading the effort.

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lotlizard's picture

http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/sam-husseini/63591/foreign-policy-sander...

Wouldn't it be something if Sanders was nominated, won, and then — foreign-policy wise, when it comes to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Middle East — turned out to be no different than the Democrats' 2000 VP pick, Joe Lieberman?

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Big Al's picture

What bullshit. The War OF Terror, based on the false flag on 9/11, has always been a cover for
U.S. imperialism and Israeli Zionism to finish their agenda in the ME and around the world.

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