Democrats' "Blue Wave" is essentially gone
Three months ago the Democrats were going to crush the Republicans.
Today the Democrats' lead is within the margin of error.
About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% -- including nearly half of independent voters (48%) -- say it doesn't matter which party controls Congress.
The Democrats' advantage in the generic ballot dipped from 16 points in February to six points in March to just three points now.
The dip in approval is especially pronounced among millennials.
So why is this happening? What has happened since March?
The most obvious event that has occurred on the Democratic side since March has been the start of the primaries.
So how have they gone? Let's look at today's article.
The Democratic establishment is alive and well, thriving after big wins in the fall that have continued through this early political season.
...On Tuesday, two Democrats without ideologically pure voting records advanced without much friction: Centrist Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana won renomination uncontested, and Sen. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia won by 40 percentage points. They are among the small group of Democrats who supported a rollback of some Obama-era Wall Street regulations and voted for some of President Trump’s nominees, including Supreme Court Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, but have so far faced only minor anti-establishment blowback.
..Democrats had pushed potential anti-establishment challengers out of the way in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee, seats held by Republicans that, if won by Democrats, could flip the majority.
Well that sure will excite the base, amirite? Nothing like a continuation of a corrupt status quo to get young people to the polls.
And what does the news media think about this?
NY Magazine: ‘Rigging’ Primaries Is Fine. Backing Bad Candidates Isn’t.
NY Times: Actually, National Democrats Should Interfere in Primaries
WashPost: Pelosi defends party intervention in Democratic primaries
So let's add all of this up.
The Democratic establishment, despite being destroyed in the past eight years of elections, having led the party with unprecedented incompetence to century lows, were on the verge of a massive Blue Wave.
So what do they do?
They deliberately undermine their loyal base. They knee-cap the young people who are most enthusiastic. The news media cheers this trend.
Now, with bland moderates in place that don't stand for anything, enthusiasm has waned and the Blue Wave is becoming a mirage.
Have I missed anything? Is that all?
Just this one last thing: This was foreseen six months ago.
Six months ago, the independent report—titled Autopsy: The Democratic Party in Crisis—pointed out that young people “increasingly want politics to be for something profoundly positive rather than just against Republicans.” As a member of the task force that worked on the report, I was struck by how the top echelon of the Democratic Party keeps trying to insulate itself from—and fend off— the tremendous energy that mobilized behind Sanders during the primaries.
In short, the Democratic Party is still dominated by elected officials and power brokers who appear to be deeply worried that a future progressive upsurge of political engagement could loosen—or even end—their corporate-funded grip on the party. As the Autopsy report said, “Emerging sectors of the electorate are compelling the Democratic Party to come to terms with adamant grassroots rejection of economic injustice, institutionalized racism, gender inequality, environmental destruction and corporate domination. Siding with the people who constitute the base isn’t truly possible when party leaders seem to be afraid of them.”
The problem is not Trump.
Trump is a symptom of the problem.
The problem is the Democratic Party.