Democratic Wave turns into a ripple
Five weeks ago the Democrats had an enormous 13-point advantage over the Republicans in RealClearPolitics’ average of polling. If the midterm elections happened then it would have flipped both houses of Congress.
The Democratic advantage now is 7.3 points — still big, but the lowest it has been since last July.
At the same time, Trump’s getting more popular.
Before you say "well, it's still seven percent" consider the trend. If it keeps up just one more month then Dems are looking at a 2% lead, and that won't buy you a cup of coffee.
In fact, the most recent poll showed exactly that.
In a look ahead to 2018, Democrats currently hold a negligible edge on the generic Congress ballot. If the election for House of Representatives were held today, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 45% who would support the Republican. This marks a dramatic shift from last month, when Democrats held a 15 point advantage on the generic ballot (51% to 36%).
"The generic Congressional ballot is prone to bouncing around for a bit until the campaign really gets underway later this year. But Democrats who counted on riding public hostility toward the tax bill to retake the House may have to rethink that strategy," said Murray.
This Gallup poll from a few weeks ago reinforced this trend away from the Dems.
fivethirtyeight.com even asked if the Democrats should panic.
Why the change?
Maybe it's because of the way establishment Dems and the McResistance likes to sell out progressives for their corporate masters.
Here's a twist, sports fans.
Maybe, just maybe, there's nothing wrong with the Democratic Wave.
What do I mean by that?
Consider this NBCnews headline: Democrats say their mountain of cash looks like a wave
So maybe we're just looking at the wrong "Democratic Wave".
The Dems are doing just fine in the "wave" that matters.
Comments
I am always leary of "lean to"
The way the question is phrased makes it look dodgy to me. I want them to clearly offer other alternatives as well as a "won't vote" option. THEN I'll maybe believe their numbers.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
Nope, there is nothing wrong with the democratic wave
It's going according to their plan and I'm thinking that the down turn of the polls might be because of how they folded during their fake government shutdown. People said that if the democrats can't keep their promises for more than 3 days then how would they fight the republicans if they took control again? You'd almost think that they were trying to lose on purpose. It could be that people saw that article about how the DCCC is trying to keep progressive candidates out of the election? Besides being in charge of congress makes it difficult to make people think that you want to pas legislation that would help people.
BTW, did you see the love fest for Joe Manchkin on ToP after Pence said something bad about him?
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Saw and got banned over vicious attack on Gabbard.
I thought they were about electing democrats.
You got banned?
for defending a Putin Puppet?
Join the club!
"Generic" polls are worthless
There's gerrymandering combined with the wildly polarized demographics of the population - it could well be that a Dem +15% only means that the Democrats take New York City by 85/15 instead of the usual 70/30 but only lose upstate by 60/40 instead of the usual 70/30. So what?
And then there's what I call booth conversions, where a voter goes to the polls vowing to vote out the SOBs - "that XYZ issue that was in the papers was the last straw!" but when the time comes inertia takes over, as always.
Of course, look at the trend - the Dems have been losing something like 2 million votes a cycle since 2010, and I see no evidence that the trend will not continue. Sure, Trump is the worst POTUS since W, but more people haven't been voting R, fewer people have been voting D. 2018 could be like 2006 and 2008, but don't bet on it.
On to Biden since 1973
slight tweak
.... ashington .....
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Maybe it’s because people are sick
of Dim malfuckery and lies. We KNOW why we didn’t vote for the Clinton Creature, and maybe people are damn suck and tired of those lying, cheating jackasses calling us RUSSIAN! stooges.
We know what TCC and her people did. We hated Tom Perez, and Schumet and Pelosi are a disgrace as leaders to any party or organization.
All they care about is money. And people are sick of getting nothing in return for their ‘investment’.
.
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Will replaying Hillary's strategy work this time?
The Hillary strategy as I saw it:
If the last election is a guide, good parts of what should have been democratic voters did not show up. Add to this that many progressives are challenging establishment corporatists who will be beaten down and cheated in the primaries. Will they show up in the general election?
The economy? Is there an upward path that people can see?
The fastest-growing jobs in America pay about $22,000 per year
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/11/13/americas-fastest-...
There seems to be a sense with establishment corners that Mueller will take down the gop, and the dems easily win mid-terms. Mueller will not indict Trump.