538 still clueless, but starting to get the drift

It's like a bell rang in Nate Silver head. His new piece at 538 finally notices the importance of Independents. He also just got wind of the news that Bernie does fantastic with Independent voters and oh my goodness Independents are a majority of the voting electoral! What to do? Well of course make Hillary attractive to Independents! Excuse me while I roll over laughing! Talk about trying to force a square into a circle!

Nate obviously hasn't seen this chart:


Reuters tracking poll filtered for likely general election voters, independents only. Yellow is Sanders (58%). Red is Clinton (14%). Orange is Won't Vote (28%). Won't Vote has double the support that Clinton has.

Hillary is tanking with Independents. There's a reason for that and no amount of superficial lies and pandering can put lipstick on that pig.

That’s because a lot of Sanders voters don’t identify as Democrats. Exit polls have been conducted in 27 primary and caucus states so far, and Clinton has won among voters who identify as Democrats in all but Vermont, New Hampshire and Wisconsin (where she tied Sanders). But she’s won self-identified independents only in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. (I keep using that term “self-identified” because the exit poll asks voters how they “usually think of” themselves — Democrat, Republican or independent. A voter’s self-identification may differ from her party registration, and some states do not have party registration at all.)

[...]

Overall throughout the primaries and caucuses, I estimate, Clinton is beating Sanders by 27 percentage points among self-identified Democrats but losing to Sanders by 31 points among voters who call themselves independents but voted in the Democratic primaries.2 This might be confusing because we usually think of independent voters as being moderate. Sanders voters, however, are definitely to the left of Clinton, but a lot of them don’t like to call themselves Democrats. (Sanders himself, of course, has repeatedly been elected to Congress as an independent and did not officially declare himself to be a Democrat until November.) As a result, about 40 percent of Sanders’s primary and caucus voters identify as independent, as Republican or with some party other than Democrats, according to my estimates.

[...]

If Clinton wins over those voters, she’ll gain a few percentage points on Trump in national and swing state polls, and the race will potentially look more like it did in March and April, with Clinton having a fairly comfortable lead over Trump. If not, the general election could come down to the wire.

Silver is so vested into the Clinton must win narrative that he totally ignores what's right in front of his face: Bernie is the stronger candidate against Trump.

Hillary surrogates have to twist their brains into non coherent pretzels to justify their support.

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Thumb's picture

Clinton's numbers have gotten Bad among Bernie Sanders supporters. 60% have an unfavorable view of her.

60% seems low to me.

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"Polls don't tell us how well a candidate is doing; Polls tell us how well the media is doing." ~ Me

for the broader group that voted for Sanders. I believe that is higher than before and could dent her Dem/lean Dem approval ratings.

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MonetaryLeviathon's picture

(the 40%) number doesn't make a lot of sense... why would someone be supporting Bernie and have still have a favorable view of hillary? Because they're scared of Trump? I like Bernie the best by far but have listened to well over a dozen Trump 'speeches' on youtube and what not ... though occasionally he spends a few moments saying really stupid right wing things like "we'll crush ISIS' and "torture is okay" the vast majority of speeches and the time he yaks in them (if you can call them that since he usually just adlibs to his credit) are all about jobs and trade policy and America losing on everything they do which are the bastion meme of Bernie's ... yet those similarities are rarely pointed out anywhere in media whether 'liberal' media or so-called conservative media. Some the worst people in the republican establishment political arena have indicated their preference for Hillary.... and "40%" of Bernie supporters still like her... its unbelievable.

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pswaterspirit's picture

Being diplomatic. My mother would tell you a raving lunatic is a "little different" She also said of Sarah Palin she was sure she was a nice person deep down. She would say she had a positive view of Hillary but voting for her is a whole different story.

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Those that vote for Hillary out of the fear of 'the big bad wolf ~ Trump will be the same people who go crawling back to TOP and be welcomed back into the fold of the 'I'm with her cult'. Because, they are gutless human beings.

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self identify as Democrats, some have been for years.

I would guess they aren't following the election too closely -- they are mostly going based on the image that Clinton and her people have created for her over the years. I could be wrong. Almost everyone that I know, even for those who support her and not Bernie, do it without much enthusiasm.

As far as Trump goes, Trump talks about corruption, he talks about protecting Social Security and unfair trade agreements.

But, the big difference is that Sanders has actually walked the walk and backed up his words with decades of action.

Trump has never gone to the mat and risked anything for these issues. That's a big problem for me., it's just one of many, but that's a hard hurdle to clear.

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cardboardurinal's picture

Independent voters make up a plurality of voters, otherwise, great info to rub in the faces of Hillary's supporters if she loses the GE.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

is that Hillary and Bill's shenanigans over the years are a yuge reason why there are so many independents in the first place.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

JayRaye's picture

this message seems lost on a lot of folks

The Clintons destroyed the reputation of the Democratic Party, yet Bernie gets the blame?

I wouldn't be voting for Clinton even if I had never heard of Bernie Sanders.

#NeverHillary

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Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth.-Lucy Parsons

a DLC Third way crook nomater what their name is. M Promised myself that after the cat food commission.

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Solidarity forever

gulfgal98's picture

You summed it up beautifully in one simple sentence! Good

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

but seems to know little about politics and the political economy.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

Absolutely true. He has dipped his toe in the water several times on politics and has been completely wrong.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

lie at the heart of American politics. A couple of his pronouncements have been cringe-worthy.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

MonetaryLeviathon's picture

knows numbers or math very well but being a water carrier for a sanctioned establishment message he knows well. Anybody with the most basic knowledge of some math regarding any of the economic indicators (try some debt level numbers or trade imbalances) can figure out the truth why sentiments are moving the way they are.

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Like Kos, made their bones on DailyKos - Kos on blogging, Nate on statistics. They both cashed in on sports. And in the process, forgot about their origins. It happens. The question is: which one has the fortitude of self-reflection?

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

He wrote this article yesterday about the "Hidden Importance" of Sanders supporters. It's as though he suddenly woke up and realized that Hillary can't win in November with just the 29% of the population that still considers themselves Democrats.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-importance-of-the-bernie-...

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Alphalop's picture

since many of that 29% wont bother to show up as per normal.

So she is basically going to be trying to win the presidency with 22-24% at best.

Somehow I think Donald will not have any trouble getting out more voters than Hillary.

The DNC and the Left in general have no real clue how much the right, even the moderate right, despise the Clintons.

They have had literally DECADES to be fed hatred for them, some of it unearned but quite a bit of it is indeed warranted.

I doubt they are gonna shrug that off over a fear of Trump and pull the lever for Hillary when many of US won't even be doing so.

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

Shahryar's picture

29% are Dems, but if only 55% vote (like it's been...could even be lower) then that 29% becomes more like 15% and it's typical that Dems split about 90-10 with that 10% going for the Republican (which is why Gore lost, not because of Nader!!!) so 90% puts Hillary's total closer to 13.5% from Dems.

It's true, too, for Trump. He'll be there with his 13% of the vote from Republicans. It's a comedy if only it weren't so tragic.

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... Is how much the left is coming to despise Bill and Hillary Clinton. Many young people never knew their corporatist record. Many Americans didn't realize what a bloodthirsty neocon Hillary is. Most Americans didn't know how eager they were to be bought off, or how often they peddled their, uh, influence.

If Hillary is hated by the right and the left, just who the hell is going to elect her president?

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Please help support caucus99percent!

kharma's picture

need to realize that if they don't grow the party and embrace liberals, we will find a place to be embraced.

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There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties.. This...is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.--John Adams

He has gone to too many parties with the plutocrats to gain any reflection.

If Bernie wins, he might see something.

In the mean time, he is sacrificing dailykos to the ideology

Great comment above: Clintons trashed democratic party and Bernie gets blamed for it

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Hillbilly Dem's picture

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"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey

Robert Dole said the vote in his Senate career that he most regretted was the vote he cast establishing Medicare.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

riverlover's picture

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

yellopig's picture

...here. Much discussion about how & why Silver was wrong about Trump, but also good stuff about the mismatch between the views of political pundits and those of the American electorate.

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“We may not be able to change the system, but we can make the system irrelevant in our lives and in the lives of those around us.”—John Beckett

The Rabbit in the Hat is Elizabeth Warren...(that number is not factored into this calculation) this will give the gutless an excuse to return to their own vomit, in support of Hillary Clinton and raise her poll number.. Woo Wee... . The sooner the better. Come on EW show us your true color... is it 'yellow' by any chance?

And for your enjoyment.. you can always listen to Cindi Lauper tell you what you want to hear.. "it's your true color.... that's why you are loved, after all"

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