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Open Thread - 3-5-2026 - Beginning of a Long Winter

Morning,

A feeling of Déjà vu hit me this evening. 2020 the first feedback from the government was everything is fine, under control, just trust the experts. Oh we need to make a few restrictions, slight inconveniences for a few days, then a few week, eventually 3 years and some changes still in place.

Last Saturday the strike on Iran was to be over in 4 days, by Monday estimate became 2 weeks. Description changed to War with Iran to be finished in 4 weeks, then 8 weeks and Thursday evening a few US sources mentioning September. The most worrisone projection was on a youtube channel BORZZIKMAN Larry Johnson mentioned as one of his sources of Russian information a few months ago. Been watching their videos fairly regular, yesterday their projection was possibly 2029 for the conflict to wrap up.

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China lists five lessons from US-Israeli war on Iran Russia Times March 4, 2026.

China Military Bugle, the official press account of China’s armed forces, published a bilingual graphic on X on Tuesday with a commentary on the US-Israeli attack on Iran, which targeted government, military, and nuclear sites across the country. The strikes also killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several Iranian top commanders in Tehran, prompting Iranian retaliation against Israel and US military bases across the Gulf.

The account laid out five key takeaways. First, it labeled internal betrayal the “deadliest threat,” in an apparent reference to recent anti-government protests in Iran, which Tehran claimed had been fueled by the US and Israel. In addition, the Financial Times reported earlier this week that Khamenei’s assassination became a possibility after Israeli intelligence managed to hack nearly all the CCTV cameras in Tehran.

Second, the post called “blind faith in peace” the “costliest miscalculation.” Third came the “coldest reality”: that superior firepower “often dictates outcomes.”

Fourth, the post warned against the “illusion of victory,” in an apparent reference to the long-term blowback seen after US interventions in Iraq, Syria, and Libya.

Fifth, it declared “self-reliance” the only true guarantee of sovereignty.

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A different way to express the importance of trade Routes between Persia and China.

The dance drama will showcase the Fujian Province’s rich history and enchantment through its intangible cultural assets. The story is set during the Song Dynasty, at a time of expanding trade between China and the rest of Asia, and even Africa and Europe. In the Song Dynasty, the city of Quanzhou, in present-day Fujian Province, was one of the largest ports in the world. Ships carrying silk, porcelain and tea were regularly setting sail for distant ports around the world. The Maritime Silk Road had a crucial role in linking the East and the West, and was a major source of revenue for Chinese dynasties.

Sign in Dance Drama "The Dream of the Maritime Silk Road" (1:46 min 11 years ago)

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from the March 4 article at Leo’s Newsletter

Catherine Austin Fitts did a monumental interview with journalist Michael Yon just a couple of weeks ago that explains what the Iran war is all about.
...
The real reason for attacking Iran and trying to overthrow its regime has nothing to do with liberating the Iranian people or ridding the world of a dictatorship. Nor does it have anything to do with fighting Islam as so many conservatives foolishly believe. This war is being fought over who gets to control key shipping routes and resources (oil). Iran is positioned in a part of the world critical to both, and the fight for control of the emerging new digital economy precludes an Iranian regime that operates outside the Western global financial system, selling oil to China and India and selling drones to Russia, three countries the U.S. sees as rising competitors to its global hegemony.

“Wars are all about routes and resources,” Fitts said. “The Netherlands is in a strategic position on the North Sea at the mouth of the Rhine River, with Germany next door. They are trying to develop the Tri-State City at the German-Dutch border, which is a huge SMART City (prison city).”

After pausing for a moment, she thought of a better word to describe what Trump is creating in America and what the Europeans are creating in the E.U.

“It’s a digital concentration camp,” she said. “Physically and digitally designed for surveillance and control. What’s happening in Netherlands is very similar to what’s happening in US and North America. It’s the implementation of a digital control grid.”

She said there are 12 steps to total control. ...

Sign in Amazing Talk: Masako and Catherine Austin Fitts Feb 17, 2026 (1:48 min)

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The MAGA split is almost complete. A growing number of influencers who were significant in helping build momentum for Trump's first term are no longer supporting him. The Neocons and MIGA who joined the Trump bandwagon for his 2nd term are in the poser seats. Watching the

The Federalist still has a small sliver of belief their guy could pull a success, but not much.

How Israel ‘Chain-Ganged’ The Trump Administration Into War Against Iran March 3, 2026

These remarks from Rubio and Johnson would seem to confirm recent reporting from the New York Times, which published a lengthy account Monday chronicling how President Trump decided to go to war. The article opens with this line: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel walked into the Oval Office on the morning of Feb. 11, determined to keep the American president on the path to war.” It goes on to explain that amid weeks of U.S.-Israeli planning for war, Trump administration officials had begun negotiating with Tehran over the future of its nuclear program, “and the Israeli leader wanted to make sure that the new diplomatic effort did not undermine the plans.”
...
And it’s not the first time Israel has tried to force the United States into such a conflict. As Daniel Sobelman explained in a 2018 article for Texas National Security Review, in 2011 and 2012, when Iran was hardening its nuclear program,
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The outcome of this attempt by Israel to entrap the United States in 2011-12 was a mixed bag. On the one hand, The U.S. caved to Israeli demands by imposing crippling economic sanctions on the Iranian regime, isolating Tehran internationally — something President Obama had been reluctant to do. On the other hand, The Obama administration resisted green-lighting an Israeli strike on Iran and refused to commit the U.S. to military action — and of course it signed the JCPOA, which Israel opposed. In the end, though, Israel did succeed in influencing U.S. policy on Iran somewhat, even if it didn’t manage to entrap the U.S. in a war.

This time around, however, Israel appears to have succeeded in such entrapment, forcing the Trump administration into a war not necessarily of its choosing or timing.

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Continual push to reduce the need to use petroleum products as a transportation fuel.

Much more important than it sounds: Large-frame aluminum casting will transform manufacturing (3:43 min) (March 4, 2026)

The article Kevin is referencing: ‘World-first’ one-piece aluminium frame for EVs launched by two Chinese companies China has been casting metal

Maybe China will come to regret cancelling exclusive control of salt trade Jan 2017 after 2600 years as a method to partially fund their government.

I am seriously hoping this takes off quick in the market. Ideally the proposed lithium mine at the Oregon/Nevada border could become economically unfeasible.

China's newest battery runs on salt, and powers vehicles in extreme cold climates (4:20 min) (Feb 27, 2026)

The video Kevin is referencing.

Sign in THIS CAR RUNS ON SALT?! China Just Killed Lithium [2026] (14:10 min) (Feb 19, 2026)

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Thanks for stopping by and reading.

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Comments

studentofearth's picture

This article breaks down the various market disruptions expected at various time frames if trade routes continue to be disrupted. If you are a pre-planner to minimize hardships - a must read.

Systemic Risk: A 12-Order Cascading Analysis Of A Zero-Flow Strait Of Hormuz Closure

The modern world order, having organized itself around efficiency, cost minimization, and logistical precision, has created a machinery of dependence so extreme that the interruption of one narrow corridor can propagate outward into a general crisis of civilization
...
A multipolar world is a very complicated and dangerous world. As always, be careful what you wish for.

Such is the risk. The whole world will be compelled to support efforts to bring this situation under control immediately. China, the US, and Europe will have to work together.

The political cycle over the coming days and weeks is going to matter like never before.

Here are 10 likely and immediate crises.

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Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

The original four days promise was the outer limit of OKness for propaganda purposes. Multiply that by 30, a week later and you have the Keystone Kops War.

The other tell of course is the inconsistent rap about the purpose of the adventure -- nukes, missiles, lack of freedom for the masses.

The story changes by the day, which means there is no story, just panic pretending to be in control of chaos and likely humiliating defeat.

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7 users have voted.

I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

QMS's picture

.
Somehow, I do not see that as a viable scenario. There are too many
divisions within US/EU to negotiate with a solid China. Transportation
corridors are important for world trade. The lack of recognition of this
basic fact undermines US efforts to 'control' global economies. The
buck stops here. Get with the program politicians. Your rulers stand to
lose majorly. The sooner you accept the inevitable, the better chance you
have to survive on the global chessboard.

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4 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

enhydra lutris's picture

the OT itself.

A Chinese "salt battery" is interesting and one wonders about all of the details, salt water/saline batteries are ancinet technology, not previously deemed appropriate for mobile prime-movers, so one can't help but wonder what they've fiddled.

BORZZIKMAN had slipped by me. Loaded it up for a quick glance and it definitely looks to be of interest - thanks mucho.

Yestidday I commented on the decision that ai creations are not subject to copyright, pondered how much ai whoud de-copyright one's work and noted that grammerly is ai. Right on schedule, today's Boing-boing has a link to an article, categorized as ai related, entitled

Grammarly now summons dead authors to critique your writing

which, in commenting on this newest feature notes how grammeerly, once something of a super spell checker, has gone ever deeper and deeper into the ai-verse. Heh,

Boing Boing also has an article - https://boingboing.net/2026/03/05/both-parties-vote-to-keep-congressiona... - which comes as no surprise other than that somebody actually proposed making them public. The surprise (or not) is that it was Nancy Mace who did so.

Another, older item, from boing-boing is a sort of cyber self-defense tool from, of all "perople", the Goog - https://boingboing.net/2026/03/04/google-has-a-free-tool-that-scrubs-you... An article which everybody probably should read

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

QMS's picture

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storage devise. Had been clued into this several years ago
with explorations into solar applications. To transfer the tech
into transportation is sensible. Leave it to the Chinese to
innovate and applicate. Again, the buck stops here. Accept
the Renminbi as the new fuel powering international trade.
Not dollars anymore.

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5 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

usefewersyllables's picture

I had an epiphany night before last, when I woke up shaking and sweaty from my usual and customary white-flash nightmare. One thing that has always been the case with those (for nearly 6 decades now) is a level of abject horror at how we as a society didn't deserve that ending: that all of that death and destruction had to be occurring as a result of an error, or perhaps someone attacking us as a first strike, without notice. The core of those nightmares has always been the horrible injustice of it all.

The epiphany was simply that when it happens, it will not be an error, or a glitch in some system, or some mechanical failure: it will be because we fucking well deserve it.

I can't say that that realization is comforting, exactly. But it certainly brings a level of clarity that had been absent previously. When we finally do get vaporized, it will be for cause. Yay for the USA, I guess.

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.

QMS's picture

For grins

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1 user has voted.

Zionism is a social disease

One of many simiar results.

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usefewersyllables's picture

@humphrey

is what it looks like to be on the receiving end of a hypersonic missile, albeit one with a boring conventional warhead:

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2030003788228993194

The final stage is used to accelerate the weapon to its terminal velocity during its reentry to make it more difficult to intercept, instead of being used to extend its overall range. Spiffy stuff, that. Don't look up.

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3 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

I think being under intense financial and even psychological pressure sort of normalized it, beginning in 2020. Our fabulous government learned we will be compliant, and they expect us to have the same reaction to this unnecessary war. Mall closures, small businesses closing, decreasing home ownership, no minimum hourly wage increase...Hey, it's normal! High gas prices, utility prices, and insurance will go back to the price levels of 2019 real soon, folks!
Making it a damn luxury to dine out at a fast food drive thru is normal. Hope for a better future is practically insane.
We've always had homeless people who just wouldn't work, right? Join the military, young folks!
This will not end until we figure out how to end it.
I will do some shopping for groceries and basic necessities today with the thought that soon, the products will either be too expensive to buy, or unavailable.
Too many boomers rose to high middle class or higher. It is up to the next generation to formulate a plan to rise up against TPTB. I hope to be alive to give them my support.
Enjoy your day, soe, and thanks for the OT. I will watch the vids this evening.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Pluto's Republic's picture

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Brian Berletic is one of the most pragmatic geopolitical observers. He's not very soothing or philosophical. But he does dish the probabilities and the deadlines.

For many reasons, I am positive that the US and Israel are going to fail in their current attack. They will not stop the rise of a multipolar world by denying oil shipments to China. China is rapidly developing new energy sources and leaving Oil behind. The world does not wish to be Ruled by the United States or the US Dollar. The US will almost certainly default on its debt. You may have a different view about how this all plays out..

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