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The Weekly Watch

The Post-Constitutional Era

Open Thread Image.jpg

We sit on the brink of yet another illegal attack on Iran. Can anyone explain to me how Iran is a threat to the US, or for that matter how does Venezuela and Cuba threaten us? None the less an attack on Iran seems eminent without even a congressional hearing. Even if there was one, the Zionist purchased congress would probably acquiesce. The endless wars have come home and are taking form in the streets of sanctuary cities. The meme of "show me your papers" is now real on US streets. There are ways we could handle illegal immigrants in a reasonable manner, but we've become a fascist like state. Hang on friends it is likely to be a wild week!
The Day the Constitution Died – A Biting Satirical Folk Anthem for a Nation on the Brink

John D. Cundle (Click the captions icon for the lyrics.)

The U.S. Constitution is Dead

(8.5 min)

The degradation of the Constitution has been on going for my entire life. If I was forced to name the turning point, I would suggest the creation of the CIA (the oligarchs Mafia) in 1948, or the related JFK assassination. However, it has been a slow continuous process, accelerated by 9/11 (which was perhaps the purpose of that "attack").

Here's one from 7 years ago explaining how we no longer have a Bill of Rights...

(17.5 min) We can pretend that the Constitution, which was written to hold the government accountable, is still our governing document. In reality, however, the Constitution has been steadily chipped away at, undermined, eroded, whittled down, and generally discarded to such an extent that what we are left with today is but a shadow of the robust document adopted more than two centuries ago.

So here we are. A rudderless ship of state captained by a self absorbed real estate mongol and reality TV star.

Forever War...
Article I, Section 8: Congressional duties...
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes,
Duties, Imposts and Excises [like tariffs], to pay the Debts and provide for the
common Defence and general Welfare of the United States;
...
To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures
on Land and Water;
To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money
to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;
To provide and maintain a Navy;
To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the
land and naval Forces;...
To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the
Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

Although congress hasn't even held a session on Iran, Trump has assembled an armada around Iran. An attack may occur today , this week, or next weekend. Iran is not a threat to the US, no this attack is at the behest of Israel. Why? Regime change...
The Duran discusses the situation.

(26 min) Engineer regime collapse, US on brink of Iran attack

Trump May Launch Strikes on Iran — Regime Change, Not Nukes, Is the Goal

...senior U.S. military officials have informed the leadership of a key Middle Eastern ally that President Donald Trump could authorize direct military strikes on Iran as early as this weekend, with targets potentially extending beyond nuclear and missile facilities to include senior Iranian leadership — a push some strategists say aims at precipitating regime change rather than merely halting Tehran’s military programs. This after new sanctions were placed on Iran by the US treasury department.
“This isn’t about the nukes or the missile program. This is about regime change,” said a former senior U.S. intelligence official

Alex suggests the timing of this attack is to distract from the new release of Epstein papers.
Perfect storm for Iran war distraction. Russian Navy to escort ships. EU to go after Shadow Fleet
(27 min)

Alastair Crooke : Trump Went TACO on Greenland — Will He on Iran?

(28 min) Alastair is always insightful and knowledgeable about west asia where he spent much of his career.

For a down in the weeds analysis of how the attack might proceed...
BLOCKBUSTER ANALYSIS: U.S. Doesn't Have the Power to Defeat Iran /Steve Jermy & Lt Col Daniel Davis
(24 min) Outline of points:
Threat from Iranian missiles to a U.S. carrier fleet
Primary naval threat isn’t Iranian bases in the Gulf: Aside from Bandar Abbas (near the Strait of Hormuz), Iranian Gulf bases and conventional submarines are a secondary concern. Their Kilo-class subs are quiet but operate best in shallow water, limiting their effectiveness in deeper seas.
Carrier operating environment: Deep waters near Iran actually favor U.S. nuclear submarines (SSNs), reducing Iranian undersea threats there. Carrier strike groups would operate in carefully chosen “boxes,” trading distance for safety and access to airspace.
Air operations are constrained: Iran is far inland. Carrier aircraft would need to fly hundreds of miles over defended territory, increasing risk. Deep strikes without clear objectives would put pilots and aircraft at real risk, especially once losses begin.
Iranian air defenses are the key risk to aircraft: Systems like S-300/S-400 pose serious danger. The U.S. relies heavily on electronic warfare (Growlers) and jamming, but defenses can saturate jamming over time. Achieving air superiority is not guaranteed and could take days—or longer.
Suppression of air defenses (SEAD) isn’t a sure thing: Iran has learned from past attacks. Air defense units can move, hide, shut down radars, and reappear later. Knocking them all out quickly is unlikely.
Anti-ship missiles (cruise-type): Iran’s traditional Russian-derived anti-ship missiles (low- or medium-altitude) are considered manageable by U.S. ship defenses.
Big uncertainty: ballistic & hypersonic missiles:
The real question is whether Iran can accurately hit a moving carrier with ballistic or hypersonic missiles.
Hitting a carrier requires real-time tracking, midcourse updates, and terminal guidance—far harder than striking a fixed base.
The speaker doubts Iran currently has reliable terminal guidance for this mission, but no one can be fully certain.
Carrier survivability: Unlike land bases, carriers move fast and constantly change position, complicating missile targeting. U.S. ships also carry layered missile defenses.
Bottom line:
The U.S. can create significant destruction and chaos, but not with certainty or without risk.
Iranian retaliation—especially missile-based—is the main danger, and while a catastrophic carrier loss isn’t assured, the threat is real enough to make commanders cautious.
Overall, this is a high-risk operation with unclear strategic payoff, not a clean military solution.

This is an interesting conversation between a pessimist and an optimist on the Iran situation...

(16 min) “Iran War will be VERY BAD for Israel" - Israeli Military Expert
00:00 Israel and USA attacking Iran will be a disaster
02:02 Netanyahu and Trump think war with Iran will bring peace to the world
05:20 This will be very bad for Israel
06:29 Russia and China should have stopped the Palestinian genocide
09:27 Stephen Kapos expresses an optimistic take
10:26 Iran has never attacked a country without provocation
13:23 Trump’s "Riviera of the Middle East" project
14:36 The shame of the “great” American nation unable to control Israel

Zionist Distorts Arab Analysis As Arguing For Attack On Iran

Trump has made threats. He then set out conditions that guarantee that he will not get what he wants. He now has two choices:
To attack Iran until it concedes something.
To chicken out and recall his fleet from Iran.
Neither is a good choice:
Iran has announced to retaliate for any attack by massive missile launches against Israel and U.S. positions in the Middle East. Iran has also stated that it would close the Strait of Hormuz and thereby cause sky high global oil prices. This would likely lead to heavy losses for the Republicans in the mid term elections and would eventually end up with new impeachment procedures against Trump.
To chicken out would is also not be a good choice. By resisting a threat from Trump to then see the threat retracted without having made concessions Iran would have set an example that future targets of Trump’s extortion schemes would surely follow. It would make Iran look stronger and Trump look weaker.

COL. Lawrence Wilkerson : Can Iran Defeat Israel in a Regional War?

(24 min) Like the Col., I fear the use of nukes by Israel if it goes badly for them.


Trump Considering Strikes on Iran to Reignite Protests

Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed Trump has the ‘preventive defensive option’ to strike Iran

Senior Israeli Officials Give Trump Admin Intelligence on Targets in Iran
A Saudi delegation will also visit the US in an effort to de-escalate tension in the Middle East

US aims to sway Saudi defence minister to get behind Iran strikes, sources say
As the Gulf urges the US to engage in diplomacy, the Trump administration is using a Washington visit to pressure the kingdom...
In effect, the US and its Gulf partners appear to be talking over each other, with the Trump administration pressing Riyadh to fall in line on an attack, while Saudi Arabia is joined by Oman, Qatar and Turkey pushing for negotiations.
...
The two Arab officials told MEE there is an expectation that the US is offering “promises” to Saudi Arabia, but they did not elaborate on what Trump could offer Riyadh to secure its backing for an attack.

Pepe Escobar : Why Iran Is In Trump’s Crosshairs!

(25 min) Pepe continues his theme that the US is at war with BRICS+.

Zero Hour approaching Pepe's recent article
So this is how the whole drama is coming to: either neo-Caligula and his “massive armada” pauses, opening some room for talks, and he ends up saving the global economy; or we have the Gates of Hell opened in West Asia.
Neo-Caligula’s Top Three demands:

  1. Iran should ditch its – civilian – nuclear program, as in total cessation of uranium enrichment.
  2. Iran must reduce its missile program to a minimum.
  3. Iran must stop supporting “proxy forces” – as in Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansarallah and Iraqi militias.

There’s absolutely no way that Ayatollah Khamenei, the IRGC and the Majlis – the Iranian Parliament – will agree to any item on this ultimatum, dictated, of course, by the Zionist axis. Hence no capitulation.
Cue to Tehran dramatically raising the stakes.
The Majlis has already approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision is in the hands of the Iranian government/security apparatus. This is in fact binding for the government and the military, de facto authorizing the IRGC, under full constitutional cover, to seal the Strait of Hormuz.

Talk about collapsing the global economy!

War With Iran? MacGregor Warns This Ends the Dollar

(27 min) Colonel Douglas Macgregor explains why the world is moving toward war, why the dollar is losing power, and why gold is quietly becoming the real reserve currency. From Iran and the Middle East to China, Taiwan, and global markets, this conversation connects geopolitics directly to gold and the coming reset.
00:00 Geopolitics Meets Gold
01:32 War With Iran Risks Escalation
04:11 Why Regime Change Failed
06:09 U.S. Military Limits Exposed
08:36 China Holds the Cards
10:27 Gold Is the Real Reserve Currency
12:07 End of the Fiat Era
13:49 Taiwan, China & Reunification
16:39 U.S. Domestic Instability
20:36 Why Americans Oppose More Wars
22:14 Persian Gulf Is the Flashpoint
24:15 Europe’s Political Reckoning
25:35 Invest in What Comes Out of the Ground

Money makes the world go around?
Article 1, section 1, clause 1
No state shall coin money, emit bills of credit, or make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts.

Gold and silver took a hit last Friday, but is still up compared to two months ago.

(9 min) Why is silver price getting crushed lower and is the bull market for precious metals now over? This is the biggest 1 day move that silver has ever had on record. Will silver price continue to crash lower? What can stop silver price from being crushed? Will silver price be able to recover? Why is gold crashing lower? There are many factors, but one of the biggest is that Trump has announced a new FED chair and he is possible less willing to lower rates as compared to other possible FED chair options. One of the things we are seeing with silver price crashing this hard is silver premiums for physical silver soar. Silver is sold out at the Perth Mint as they are no longer selling Perth Bullion coins.

I went to my local coin shop Friday morning and traded 54 oz of silver I bought a few years ago at about $30 for an oz. of gold. Then the price of both fell. My bet is it will go up next week, but we'll see. I buy metals to preserve my wealth, not the grow it.

Now on to more war and conflict...
The Superorganism of War: Peter Byrne on AI, Empire, and the Death Economy

Peter Byrne argues that AI is no longer a neutral tool—it is now embedded in a self‑propelling war machine that may already exceed meaningful human control.
As Byrne puts it, the United States has created a “necrotic, death‑oriented modality” in which weapons systems, capital flows, and political institutions reinforce one another in a cycle of endless militarization. Companies like Palantir, Anduril, Microsoft, and OpenAI are not simply contractors; they are nodes in a superorganism that feeds on conflict, surveillance, and profit.
...These companies, Byrne argues, are not guided by ethics but by algorithms of profit. “They’re avatars of their own systems,” he says. “Weapons systems are reproducing themselves, ingesting capital and excreting corpses.”
...
He points out that even Pentagon and RAND reports contradict the Times’ claims: China’s military is technologically inferior, internally corrupt, and overwhelmingly defensive. China has not fought a war since 1979, while the United States has waged continuous conflict for decades.
War as a Superorganism
The heart of Byrne’s argument is philosophical. Drawing on E.O. Wilson, Thucydides, and contemporary systems theorists, he describes war as a self‑organizing superorganism—an adaptive, energy‑seeking structure that uses humans as its agents.
“We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology,” Byrne quotes Wilson. “It’s terrifically dangerous.”
Byrne argues that AI accelerates this dynamic. As human‑machine teams proliferate, the infrastructure of digitized warfare begins to reproduce itself, independent of human intention. The “singularity,” he suggests, may have already occurred—not as sci‑fi fantasy, but as the moment humans first created tools that reshaped our evolution and our politics.
Can Humanity Evolve Beyond the Death Drive?
Byrne’s answer is sobering: systems, not individuals, drive history. Capital concentrates. War machines grow. Technology accelerates. And humans, shaped by evolutionary impulses, follow patterns older than civilization.

Worth a full read or scan.

Trump Now Working On Overthrowing CUBA!

(9 min) Such arrogant bullies starving Cuba of oil. What will Trump do if Russia delivers oil to Cuba? It is possible.

Jeff Sachs and George Galloway...

(38 min) The Doomsday Clock is 85 seconds to midnight. Professor Jeffrey Sachs on the countdown to oblivion. Trump will attack Iran unless the rest of the world says no. Israel has always wanted this big one. Billionaires rule the White House.

Let wrap with some entertainment today.
I don't know about your weather, but it's been cold here. We're due to get above freezing today for the first time in a while. If you're in a similar situation you might enjoy these films.

First, a cartoon I barely remembered from my youth. I enjoyed seeing it again and hope some of you will as well.
Walt Disney - The Little House - 1952

(8 min) As progress brings the city directly around a little house, she grows more and more depressed.

And lastly, a hopeful movie about creativity, resourcefulness, and hard work:
Flight of the Phoenix

(140 min) The Flight of the Phoenix is a legendary classic adventure drama about a group of men stranded in the desert after a plane crash.
With no rescue in sight and resources running out, they face impossible choices — rebuild the wreckage or perish under the burning sun.
Driven by tension, conflict, and human resilience, this classic full movie in English delivers one of cinema’s most unforgettable survival stories.

So the thread is open. What do you think about our current post-constitutional country and the chaos we sow around the world?

Have a good Sunday!

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QMS's picture

.
and good gathering of topical issues. It seems the
consequence of the trumpet ambition to rule the world
will be the downfall of the empire, both economically and
militarily. The plan to go down swinging is insane. It does not
have to be this way. Woking with BRICS + instead of trying to
destroy it (perhaps) is beyond the reasoning of the loony tunes
narcissist in chief. The 'big, beautiful' armada may very well meet
its match in the mid east. Would have to ask Bibi what is the hurry
to destroy our world.

Thanks for the watch!

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Zionism is a social disease

Lookout's picture

@QMS

We're one month gone in 2026, and today is the appropriately named full snow moon...in fact we've got light flurries now. At about 5 pm EST it will be at maximum. Well, the west is certainly loony!

It didn't have to be this way. The oligarchs have made our choice for us.

Stay warm and have a good one!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

QMS's picture

@Lookout
.
makes the concept of a boomerang understandable.
Call it Karma. What goes around comes around. Now it
is being played out on our streets. Not even in slow motion.

Not quite above zero today. Some flurries, no accumulation expected.

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8 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

Lookout's picture

@QMS

Using federal agents as the gestapo. The war abroad has come home to roost.

Here's a couple of articles.
‘Unlike Anything I’ve Ever Lived Through Before’: Labor’s Role in Minnesota’s ICE Resistance
The massive deployment of immigration officers to Minneapolis and Saint Paul has been met with an incredible response from the community. Neighbors have come together to develop complex rapid response networks to track ICE and notify vulnerable people, keep immigrant families fed and protected with strong mutual aid networks, and make their opposition to what amounts to a full-scale federal invasion clearly visible.
This past Friday, unions, faith leaders, and community organizations organized a day of mass protest and economic disruption, punctuated by a rally and demonstration in well below sub-zero temperatures attended by tens of thousands.

‘We Cannot Separate Imperialism From Domestic Militarization’: Understanding the Links Between ICE, Gaza, and U.S. Foreign Policy
I think it’s important to note that the infrastructure of border enforcement certainly predates Trump. Border enforcement is a bipartisan practice. The groundwork for ICE, for DHS [Department of Homeland Security], for CBP [U.S. Customs and Border Protection], and this entire infrastructure of border policing is not new.
However, it is also the case that it has escalated in very particular ways under the current administration, particularly because the current administration really relies on, as all fascists do, the spectacle of overt dehumanizing violence.
So I do think that is different because explicitly right-wing rhetoric relies on a particular kind of racial terror in order to keep reproducing itself.
The last thing I’ll say is that it’s also important to know that what’s happening in the U.S. can’t be isolated from attacks on migrants around the world. I think it’s a bit of a mistake to only read what’s happening in the U.S. in relation to the U.S.

I do think some of the millions of illegal immigrants fostered by Biden need to be deported. However, the illegal (no due process) way in which it is being conducted is horrid. We can do better, but sadly we don't give a damn.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

QMS's picture

@Lookout
.
On how the MSP community is banding together to resist
the jackboots and support the victims. It appears to be a long
slog, potentially spreading out to other urban areas. As long as
people help one another, we have a chance in surviving.

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Zionism is a social disease

Lookout's picture

@QMS

...to address the ICE thugs. Do you think it will have any impact? Notice how ICE is not being deployed to red states like mine?

Stay warm!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

QMS's picture

@Lookout
.

.

the impact is mutual support.
People from away may notice there are efforts to confront
the monster (not sure what the MSM is reporting)
but the locals derive encouragement from fellowship.

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Zionism is a social disease

connection and Israel Mossad might beg to differ.

Somewhat related???

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Lookout's picture

@humphrey

no doubt Epstein was a Mossad and CIA asset, and evidently more. Alex today described some emails on his participation in trying to take out Putin.

1:00 - Epstein files reveal 2012 discussions about regime change in Russia targeting Putin
8:00 - Epstein’s 2014 communication on Ukraine upheaval and related opportunities
10:19 - Possible Epstein trip to Kiev in 2019 during Ukrainian elections
12:28 - First resignation linked to Epstein documents:
13:44 - Trump’s response to Epstein documents

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

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Lookout's picture

@humphrey
and it is even more true in terms of silver. US spot about $85
China spot $125. They are ditching dollars for metals. Not a bad idea if you ask me.

Thanks as always for the X posts and the cartoon!

I appreciate the visit!

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Been thinking on this. I remember studying WW1 in high school, how it started, the complex treaties and the royal loyalties that tied sides. The officers and their station determined by their class. Trench fighting and the introduction of modern warfare. The US entry, and finally the end of the war. Then reparations, the depression and on and on setting up the rise of Hitler, and WW2.
All caused by actions, inaction, bad luck, and sometimes good fortune, on both sides.

Ever since Newt Gingrich declared war on us, whatever republicans did or didn’t do, or the democrats did or didn’t do, brought us to this point. Maybe, if there are any school history classes 50 years from now, and they’re unbiased, historians will have written what went wrong. The republicans have been single minded since Nixon on what they wanted. The democrats…. were they weak and helpless, did they tie their own hands, have poor strategy, take the high road always, or just have bad luck?

I don’t know, but If we get back power what will we be able to do with it? The republicans were ruthless in their plans, carried out over decades. Supreme court, federal judges, state offices, congress, all goals for their movement. What’s ours? Will a democratic president use the power the supreme court bestowed on him or her to make sweeping changes for the working men and women, or will they pick some normal point in the recent past as a goal? Do we have the will to fight for decades towards a coherent stated goal? Do democrats? I doubt it.

I think at some point, maybe after signing the the Declaration of Independence the US became a fascist state. The one thing that struck me is that in the past the government intrusion in to our everyday lives was small, that you could go off to the fringes and feel free a bit. No more. I can only think we are under constant surveillance, not that we are chosen to be watched, but that all the info is collected and updated in real time, ready to be viewed when needed. We applaud the protesters for their courage, but with facial recognition and the arrests for minor infractions and all the information collected during arrest, will all that information be used against them, blackballing them for employment, loans, mortgages and rentals?

I've become a severe pessimist. We can see what's wrong, and as one Minnesota stated, there's no one coming to save us. We celebrate the smallest accomplishment and call it a victory. So how do we get out of this?

Liked "The Little House", when I was little, a long long time ago. Got another house story. Ironically, the AI assistant wrote this description about a story in Ray Bradburys "The Martian Chronicles".

"There Will Come Soft Rains" is a science fiction short story by Ray Bradbury that depicts an automated house continuing its daily routines after a nuclear war has obliterated its human inhabitants. The story explores themes of technology and solitude as the house ultimately succumbs to a fire, highlighting the irony of its persistence in a lifeless world.

Hoping for a kinder 2026.

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Lookout's picture

@Snode

The US has had many opportunities and failures.
We are a nation built by slavery..the white house, capitol, and so on.
After taking their land, many, perhaps most, first nations peoples are impoverished.
Taking their land was the US initial imperial ambition.
After the civil war we started our foreign colonial actions...making us no different than the Brits we rebelled against in the first place.
Leading to your historical recollections.

It really is ironic all the way around. Now we're back in the wild west, and we ain't abiding no stinkin' law.

So how do we get out of this?

...there's no one coming to save us.

As I often say, I'm hiding in the holler. Hoping to ride out the civil war like those that lived here during the first US civil war...with impact, but surviving.

All I can suggest is be adaptable, try to think outside the box, use your good judgement.

Thanks for coming by.

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

usefewersyllables's picture

@Snode

this quote the other day, and it would seem to fit here:

"A sheep spends its whole life fearing the wolf, but in the end it is eaten by the shepherd." - African proverb, often attributed to Zimbabwean revolutionary and politician Robert Mugabe

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.

Lookout's picture

@usefewersyllables

it is a distraction from what we should be looking toward...you know, "squirrel!"
Glad you came by.

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6 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

literally rather than metaphorically.

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Lookout's picture

@humphrey

vampires trying to suck the world dry and demand submission.

Thanks for the X!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

enhydra lutris's picture

Saw a headline that a Democrat had won a presumed safe GOP seat in TX. So does this portend a major change in US politics, a major change in TX politics, or none of the above?

Somethng above says Trump claims that E-files release cleared him of any wrongdoing, which they cannot possibly do. What they can do is show that his DOJ released nothing proving wrongdoing by him, whether because there was no such evidence or because they withheld it

Not doing to well news wise today. Also, on CA Hwy 99 there was a 59 car pileup caused by people who live out that way choosing to take the freeway in the middle of a tule fog. Ya gotta be crazy to do that as this event, the latest of vast thousands of such events again demonstrates.

Time to go watch Alex, methinks.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris a democrat winning will just add to the roster another foot soldier ready to take orders from a Jefferies or Schumer. Maybe in 20 or30 years they'll get their chance to make a difference, but by then, well, we know what happens.

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Lookout's picture

@enhydra lutris

His monologue last 20 min or so. Shortly after that is Maranni in Iran.

Have a good one!

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5 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

I have to sort through 6 months of business expenses so I can get my taxes done and over with until next year. Just as I finish up, it will be time for me to cook dinner. sigh...
You posted numerous videos I intend to watch after I have done my patriotic duty to figure out how much I will pay to support my awesome government.
Thanks for your hard work putting this WW together for us, my friend.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Lookout's picture

@on the cusp

who has done our taxes for years. Ours is pretty straight forward most years.

We have all our W-2's, but I like to wait till after all the refund chasers. I typically wait till March when she has a lull.

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5 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout is to sort out efile court costs from my income. Some client may pay me with a check or credit card in the amount of $1875 to file a divorce. Only $1500 is toward my initial retainer. The rest is court costs. Only attorneys can use the efile system. Attorneys are required to use the efile system.
My head started to hurt just then...
Anyway, I have all my expenses categorized, about 8 different categories, so tomorrow, I will add the figures for each category, then let my tax preparer do her magic. I get my tax stuff done to get it over with. I do not remember in my 40 years of practice ever getting a refund. The time we all got some check from the government during the COVID hard times, I had to pay taxes on that.
It sucks not to be a billionaire.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Lookout's picture

@on the cusp

I'm grateful that our friend does ours, and she efiles it for us after we sign our paper work.

Good luck with yours, and take out some time for yourselves!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout figures, documents, and report ready is 16 hours.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Lookout's picture

@on the cusp

could be lots worse. None the less a chore.

What choice do we have? Like death , taxes are inevitable.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

informative.

The rest of the tweet:

Key points:
Standard air-to-air missile loads limit most jets to ~6–12 engagements per sortie (e.g., AIM-120 AMRAAM + AIM-9X Sidewinder).
Against low/slow threats like drones or subsonic cruise missiles, cheaper options shine: F-15 family (especially F-15E/EX) can carry up to 40–50 guided rockets (APKWS II) plus missiles, for much higher volume (50+ possible).
F/A-18: ~8–12 missiles typical.
F-35: ~6–10 (internal for stealth; more externally but loses stealth).
Real-world: Fighters often use rockets for cost-effective swarm defense; missiles are overkill/expensive for cheap drones.

2. Fleet-Wide Daily Capacity
You then asked about the entire assembled U.S. fleet of these jets (~1,400–1,600 operational F-15s, F/A-18 Super Hornets, and F-35s combined) and how many such threats they could handle in one day (assuming surge operations).Estimate: In a high-intensity defensive scenario (with refueling, AWACS support, etc.), the fleet could theoretically engage thousands to tens of thousands per day.
Low-end (missile-focused): 10,000–15,000+.
High-end (F-15s rocket-optimized): 20,000–40,000+.
But this assumes heavy use of cheap rockets on F-15s; real limits include pilot fatigue, maintenance, and ammo resupply.

3. Munitions Availability and Cost Concerns
You pointed out the obvious issue: Do they even have enough ammo/stockpiles available quickly? And wouldn't defending against ~500 incoming objects per day (targeting Israel, Lebanon, and 4 Persian Gulf bases) for 10 days be extremely expensive?
Answer: Yes—very expensive and logistically tough.
High-end missiles (AIM-120, Patriot, etc.) cost $1M+ each; stockpiles are strained (depleted from Ukraine aid, Red Sea ops, 2025 Israel-Iran exchanges).
Cheaper APKWS rockets (~$20–30k each) help for drones, but forward stocks aren't unlimited; resupply lags.
10 days (~5,000 threats): Munitions cost could range from $100M–$10B+ (depending on mix of cheap vs. expensive intercepts), plus aircraft/sortie costs.
Brutal cost asymmetry: Attackers spend little; defenders spend massively.

4. Strategic Conclusion: Better Not to Attack Iran Directly
You concluded: "Then I would not attack Iran at all."
Agreement: Direct/escalatory strikes risk unsustainable costs. Iran excels at asymmetric warfare (cheap drones/missiles overwhelm expensive defenses). Better options: deterrence, diplomacy, preemptive disruption of launchers, non-kinetic tools (jamming, cyber), or limited responses.

5. Escalation Nightmare: Iran Extends the Barrage
You imagined Iran saying after 10 days: "That was fun—let's do another 2 weeks."Analysis: Iran could plausibly sustain extended barrages (thousands of cheap drones + missiles stockpiled/produced). Defenders face exponential depletion (billions more in costs, stock exhaustion, fatigue). High oil prices from any disruption would benefit Russia massively (windfall revenues, even with discounts to allies like China/India).

6. Adding Hormuz Shutdown: The Tipping Point
You added a 4-week (later refined to 2-month) shutdown/disruption of the Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf shipping).Impact: ~20% of global oil + significant LNG transits there. Even partial/effective disruption (mines, threats, insurance spikes) for weeks/months causes massive price surges ($90–$150+/barrel possible), global inflation, recession risks, and supply shocks.
Attackers (U.S./allies) suffer disproportionately (energy costs, domestic backlash, economic pain).
Iran self-harms but gains leverage; Russia wins big from high prices.

7. Final Scenario: Could This Lead to Strategic Defeat?
You asked if a limited war (40 days active + negotiation time), with 2-month Persian Gulf shipping disruption + 3-week barrage (500/day, ~10,500 threats), could cause a strategic defeat for the attackers (U.S./Israel/allies) rather than Iran.Yes—plausibly: The combo creates an attritional trap:
Munitions/economic exhaustion for defenders.
Global energy chaos favors asymmetry.
Political fallout forces de-escalation/settlement on worse terms.
Iran "wins" by surviving/resisting without decisive military loss—classic asymmetric victory.

Overall theme: In modern great-power proxy/escalation dynamics, the side with cheap, mass-attack tools (like Iran) holds strong leverage against high-tech, expensive defenses. Restraint often beats full confrontation due to unsustainable costs and blowback. Your questions built a realistic escalation ladder, highlighting why "little wars" can spiral into strategic disasters for the initiators. Great discussion—thanks for the thoughtful back-and-forth!

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Lookout's picture

@humphrey

...except to feed egos of the warmongers.

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5 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

a controlling figure with regards to the Cheeto's behavior.

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Lookout's picture

@humphrey

His entire cabinet are Zionist warmongers. If he doesn't attack, I'll be pleasantly surprised. I can hope.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

I haven't watched it, will do so after dinner. (29 min.)

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Lookout's picture

@on the cusp

Iran attack seems touch and go. Seems a lose lose situation. We'll see what Caligula does....or how he spreads chaos.

Thanks for dropping the clip!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Lookout's picture

I've been fortunate to play this one with Norman, Nancy, and James. I'm sorry there's not a YT of those 3 playing it, but here's Norman's excellent guitar work.

Sleep well friends!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”


Just saying!

Part of the image is cropped. Netanyahu said this in 1990

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The rest of the tweet:

The deal, signed just months before Washington approved major U.S. AI-chip access for the UAE, made Tahnoon’s vehicle the firm’s largest shareholder and placed G42 executives on its board alongside Trump and Witkoff family members. Roughly $187 million from the first tranche flowed to Trump family entities, with additional payouts to Witkoff-linked entities and co-founders.

After the investment, Tahnoon intensified lobbying and secured U.S. approval for tens of thousands of advanced AI chips for G42, a major Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence and technology company, overcoming prior national-security objections. Ethics experts say the timing raises serious conflict-of-interest and emoluments concerns; the White House and the company deny wrongdoing.

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soryang's picture

General Zhang Youxia, recently purged from the PLA Central Military Commission, reported by the PLA on Jan 24. He was no 2 in the PLA power structure only after Xi himself. Chief of Staff general on the commission Liu Zhenli was also purged, for all practical purposes leaving Xi alone at the top of the CMC, the only remaining general being a political officer. This is a major event inside China, all the usual China experts I'm accustomed to hearing haven't addressed this yet, while anti-mainland China media spread wild rumors about gunfights, a coming civil war, etc.

Are the regular pundits who cover China that I usually watch on youtube unaware of the power struggle over the PLA? I don't understand why people aren't reporting on this. Waiting for the fallout? There are unsubstantiated reports of unusual military movements, air activity, troop columns etc. Whether these are true is doubtful. Certainly the party is following its usual practice of saying little about such profound changes.

I saw one report that mixed videos of troop movements near Beijing of unknown date and origin with an explosion in a Beijing tunnel that turned out to be fuel truck or something like it. I heard a recent report that said in the period before Zhang's removal, Xi had placed his own people in charge of the Central Military District and the district that includes Beijing. Reportedly, these commanders are PLAAF to remove any untoward army influence. If Xi feels comfortable enough to make public appearances I would think that rumors of "civil war" are false. What's interesting is the frightening alternative reality created in alternative media by the usual suspects, while official mainstream and expert sources are mostly quiet or put their reports behind paywalls.

I listened carefully to a South Korean professor going over the little of what is known currently, and he regarded the more sensational reports as not credible. He described the Central Military Commission purge in terms of an extension of anticorruption campaign carried out by Xi since at least 2014 to remove powerful faction leaders in the party and civilian government. In other words, a final step in his consolidation of power. The analyst argued that competing factions in the CPC originally selected Xi as a compromise choice for Chairman, because he personally essentially had no significant power base. Consolidating control over the PLA was the last step. Is it over yet?

The Jake Sullivan discussion with Osnos was preoccupied with Taiwan, Xi wants yes men, etc.

Here's an article that covers the Xi/Zhang dispute.

Zhang Youxia’s Differences with Xi Jinping Led to His Purge

The impact of removing Zhang and Liu on the PLA’s ability to invade Taiwan likely did not rank as Xi Jinping’s primary concern. Their approach to war preparation did not align with Xi’s objectives, and whether they remained in office or not would not have enabled the PLA to meet the 2027 target. Their continued presence instead posed a challenge to Xi’s authority. Given that Zhang could not deliver the rapid development of joint operational capability that Xi demanded, Xi had little reason to justify Zhang’s exceptional age waiver or extended tenure.

I don't think it was just a personal dispute. There have been and are sociological and class issues within the PLA that I'm sure civilian party leadership could identify. Wanting to avoid the caste system, class pretensions, and nepotism of a corrupt Kuomintang 1930s like military government was part of it in my opinion. Xi Jinping thought is a thing. It may be ideological or it may reflect an idea of technocratic military competence not based on 20th Century practices or who your family is. Xi thinks joint armed forces/ combined arms training for war fighting are desirable. Aren't we doing it? It's hard to imagine a modern military by a major power not doing training this way. I saw footage of Zhang's military campaign in 1984 fighting with Vietnam, and it looked like footage from the Korean War. He did want to develop and introduce high tech war fighting capabilities, but I think he was behind on the organizational integration. The social issues and the modernization of command structure and operations concept go hand in hand. As one of the oldest crustiest generals in the PLA, I think Zhang didn't give a s..t what Xi thought. This is a reaction one often sees in older senior officers who have combat experience. There reaction to anyone who disagrees with their policy analysis is "been there, got the belt buckle." It's another way of saying "don't tell me what to do, I know better."

From spending time on this, I've come to the conclusion, that Xi and Zhang really weren't all that close personally and that there were in fact historical, ideological and class issues between them. Xi from the scholar class, Zhang an actual warrior. I do think Zhang needed to retire. Xi will ultimately need to find a way to exit gracefully. This is the classic problem for Chinese kings and emperors. It's also another depicted in Swords into Plowshares.

edited typo

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己所不欲,勿施于人。

usefewersyllables's picture

after seeing Lee Ritenour in concert. Good show, though really short. Shrinkflation has set in, apparently. It is getting harder and harder to justify the price of the tickets…

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.

a tribute to him band. That is what we get around here, except on rare occasions.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

QMS's picture

@on the cusp
.
a new concept for me
a clue? perhaps I can understand
and reply accordingly.
Do you mean to say his brand?
Lost in the weeds.

thanks for your consideration

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Zionism is a social disease

usefewersyllables's picture

@QMS

OTC might have been referring to my post about Lee Ritenour. I agree with her- it was good to see him live, the actual him in the flesh, and not some sort of a cover or "tribute" band.

It'd be hard to do a cover band for him: he's the quintessential LA studio cat, in addition to all the things he's done with his own solo work, and with Four Play. He's appeared on several thousand projects over the years, and has played in every genre under the sun, although he might be best known for his smooth jazz work. He and Leland Sklar were kind of the core of the post-Wrecking-Crew Wrecking Crew.

The first set was 3 tunes, and so was the second set. Did a couple of encores, and of course the tunes are relatively long with he, the bassist, and the keyboardist trading solos. But still and all, an 8-tune evening was a little shorter than I had in mind.

His son is playing drums for him these days. Lots of intense good musicianship there...

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3 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

QMS's picture

@usefewersyllables
.
Will have to delve into the vaults to make the
connections - listening to bloody well right just now ..

This one I remember. Tanks. Soft and smooth like I like.

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2 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

usefewersyllables's picture

@QMS

look up "Captain Fingers"... (;-)

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1 user has voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

QMS's picture

@usefewersyllables
.
reminds one of players of the same vintage
as Chick Corea and etc.
Thanks

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2 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease