am going to write more about this next week, but I think it is worth noting the national polling. Some will argue that it is irrelevant at this stage — but the leader at this point has won 9 of 11 elections since 1972.

This table compares the Obama 2008 and 2012 margins against averages from the three most recent polls: NBC/Marist, CBS and Fox.

Data from Exit polls, Fox, NBC Marist and CBS.
It will be argued that Clinton is better known, and once the GOP starts attacking Sanders they will take him down. That may be true. But I want to re-direct the discussion.

What the Sanders matchups point to is a possible Democratic landslide of historic proportions. What is important is to identify where these gaps are between Clinton and Sanders, and understand them not in the context of the Clinton and Sanders fight, though the implications of this data for that fight are obvious, but rather as an opportunity.

Sanders outperforms Clinton significantly in the following groups:

1. The young — this isn’t much of a surprise. About 3 points of the 12 point difference between Sanders and Clinton is attributable to their relative appeal. But this may understate the problem: young people just don’t like Clinton. She still wins them against Trump because Trump is incredibly unpopular among the young. But against Cruz she substantially under performs Obama’s 2012 number.

I haven’t much serious analysis from the Clinton campaign on how to fix this. But they need to.

2. Whites — Sanders performance among whites is pretty stunning, whether measured against either Clinton or Obama. in fact, he runs 13 points better than Obama did in 2008 among whites. Clintons numbers here are a little less troubling: against Cruz her margin is better than Obama’s was in 2012. But they still suggest opportunity. Sanders is connecting with downscale whites in a way Clinton is not.

3. Independents — Another factor seen in the primaries. Sanders runs substantially better than Clinton. Here again, though, Clinton’s numbers against Cruz are not greatly different than Obama’s.

4. Men/Women — Here the numbers are fascinating. Sanders actually runs better against both Trump and Cruz among women than men. Moreover Clinton’s numbers against Cruz are about the same as Obama’s were in 2008 and 2012.

Where Clinton under performs against the Obama numbers are among men. She loses by 12 among men while even in ‘12 Obama lost by only 7

But what is focusing on here is the opportunity. Bernie runs about 9 points better than Obama did among men.

The key for Democrats to understand is that the Sanders here point the way to a significant landslide. Understanding the reasons for this gap, and finding a way to close them will benefit everyone.