Election Prediction

Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 11:31am

First of all, I have a terrible record at predicting elections. In fact, the only way that I can be sure that I'm voting the way I should be is if everything and everyone I vote for loses.
Michael Moore, OTOH, has a much better record. In 2016, against virtually every other prediction, he predicted a Trump victory. In 2022, while most people predicted a "red wave", he predicted a Dem victory. Even the recent presidential debate, that most talking heads didn't know what to expect, Moore predicted Trump would lose.
I can't think of anyone anywhere with a better track record over the last 8 years.
Moore now says that Trump is "toast".

Of course Moore is right until he eventually is wrong. He also warned Harris against pivoting to the right, which she did anyway.

There is also Special Elections.

Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress.

"Polls don't vote. People vote. And that's what's been happening," says Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern, a veteran lawmaker from Massachusetts who has served in both the minority and the majority. Despite what the polls say, "people have been voting, and they've been voting Democratic. I feel really good about November – and not just about the president. I feel really good about us taking back the House."

Special election results often (but not always) predict the next election. For example, special elections in 1993 and 2009 predicted the GOP tidal waves in 1994 and 2010.

This isn't an endorsement of Harris. I simply don't trust her. OTOH, I trust Trump to be true to his authoritarian conman origins, and to not do anything to help the working class.
Even more to the point, I just can't picture 'normies' voting for a convicted felon and sexual assaulter.

The last thing I want to comment on is the future of the GOP. Few would deny that it has become a Cult of Personality. Trump is 79 years old and is in obvious cognitive decline. I'm sure that even his supporters will have to acknowledge this in the coming 4 years, which means that if Harris wins this will be Trump's last presidential run.
I honestly don't know what happens to a political party that has been captured by a Cult of Personality that no longer has that Personality around. I don't see another candidate to just swap in for Trump.

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Submitted by FutureNow on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 4:12pm

seen anything regarding polling trends. My gut tells me that Harris has slipped back very close to Biden-getting-his-ass-handed-to-him territory of just a few months ago. Either way, whatever they tell us on 11/06 will be rightly viewed as suspect. Our so-called democracy is simply not that secure.

The only prediction I’m confident about is a decisive sweep for the wealthy, warmongers, the police, banks, and insurance companies, and another devastating loss for working people, students, homeless folks, the environment, and public amenities.

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Submitted by Bring Back Civics on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 6:16pm

@FutureNow Man, do you have that right. The only determining factor on the winner of most U.S. elections in the last 20+ years is who controls the election machinery. The only wildcard this year is ability of the losing party to prove it, prosecute it, and get the word out to the population. Or you can go with Michael Moore. HA! Dollars to donuts he will be going away as a pedo. Wait for it.

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Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 8:40pm

@Bring Back Civics including at Ms.Teen beauty pageants and flew on Epstein's plane 7 times, it is far more likely that Trump is a pedo.

Or you can go with Michael Moore. HA! Dollars to donuts he will be going away as a pedo. Wait for it.
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Submitted by snoopydawg on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 9:14pm
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@gjohnsit

Single out Trump for sexual escapades while ignoring Clinton’s 26 times riding on Epstein’s plane and Joe Biden getting away with diddling Tara Reade. The accusation that put a stop to #metoo and believe all women.

At least you didn’t bring up hookers peeing on Trump on the bed that the Obama’s slept on. Trump’s accusers come out 3 decades later and the clown woman can’t remember crucial details about hers?

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“When out of fear you twist the lesser evil into the lie that it is something good, you eventually rob people of the capacity to distinguish between good and evil.”
~ Hannah Arendt

Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 10:36pm

@snoopydawg which has the exact same relevance as Clinton's.

Only Trump's accusations made it to court. So no, it does have credibility.

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Submitted by snoopydawg on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 11:07pm
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@gjohnsit

Yeah his accusation made it to court after the statute of limitations was ignored and new rules were put in place. Did you read anything about the case? She couldn’t remember anything, but the jury found him guilty anyway? They weren’t the only ones who had TDS. And Clinton’s case was backed up by facts. I hope you survive the next Trump presidency like you did the first one.

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—

“When out of fear you twist the lesser evil into the lie that it is something good, you eventually rob people of the capacity to distinguish between good and evil.”
~ Hannah Arendt