Election Prediction

Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 11:31am

First of all, I have a terrible record at predicting elections. In fact, the only way that I can be sure that I'm voting the way I should be is if everything and everyone I vote for loses.
Michael Moore, OTOH, has a much better record. In 2016, against virtually every other prediction, he predicted a Trump victory. In 2022, while most people predicted a "red wave", he predicted a Dem victory. Even the recent presidential debate, that most talking heads didn't know what to expect, Moore predicted Trump would lose.
I can't think of anyone anywhere with a better track record over the last 8 years.
Moore now says that Trump is "toast".

Of course Moore is right until he eventually is wrong. He also warned Harris against pivoting to the right, which she did anyway.

There is also Special Elections.

Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress.
"Polls don't vote. People vote. And that's what's been happening," says Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern, a veteran lawmaker from Massachusetts who has served in both the minority and the majority. Despite what the polls say, "people have been voting, and they've been voting Democratic. I feel really good about November – and not just about the president. I feel really good about us taking back the House."

Special election results often (but not always) predict the next election. For example, special elections in 1993 and 2009 predicted the GOP tidal waves in 1994 and 2010.

This isn't an endorsement of Harris. I simply don't trust her. OTOH, I trust Trump to be true to his authoritarian conman origins, and to not do anything to help the working class.
Even more to the point, I just can't picture 'normies' voting for a convicted felon and sexual assaulter.

The last thing I want to comment on is the future of the GOP. Few would deny that it has become a Cult of Personality. Trump is 79 years old and is in obvious cognitive decline. I'm sure that even his supporters will have to acknowledge this in the coming 4 years, which means that if Harris wins this will be Trump's last presidential run.
I honestly don't know what happens to a political party that has been captured by a Cult of Personality that no longer has that Personality around. I don't see another candidate to just swap in for Trump.

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Elections

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Comments

Submitted by FutureNow on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 4:12pm

Maybe it’s just because I no longer visit TOP, but I haven’t

seen anything regarding polling trends. My gut tells me that Harris has slipped back very close to Biden-getting-his-ass-handed-to-him territory of just a few months ago. Either way, whatever they tell us on 11/06 will be rightly viewed as suspect. Our so-called democracy is simply not that secure.

The only prediction I’m confident about is a decisive sweep for the wealthy, warmongers, the police, banks, and insurance companies, and another devastating loss for working people, students, homeless folks, the environment, and public amenities.

Submitted by Bring Back Civics on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 6:16pm

Democracy Not Secure

@FutureNow Man, do you have that right. The only determining factor on the winner of most U.S. elections in the last 20+ years is who controls the election machinery. The only wildcard this year is ability of the losing party to prove it, prosecute it, and get the word out to the population. Or you can go with Michael Moore. HA! Dollars to donuts he will be going away as a pedo. Wait for it.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 8:40pm

Since Trump has multiple accusation for sexual assualt

@Bring Back Civics including at Ms.Teen beauty pageants and flew on Epstein's plane 7 times, it is far more likely that Trump is a pedo.

Or you can go with Michael Moore. HA! Dollars to donuts he will be going away as a pedo. Wait for it.

Submitted by snoopydawg on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 9:14pm

Well done…

@gjohnsit

Single out Trump for sexual escapades while ignoring Clinton’s 26 times riding on Epstein’s plane and Joe Biden getting away with diddling Tara Reade. The accusation that put a stop to #metoo and believe all women.

At least you didn’t bring up hookers peeing on Trump on the bed that the Obama’s slept on. Trump’s accusers come out 3 decades later and the clown woman can’t remember crucial details about hers?

—

“When out of fear you twist the lesser evil into the lie that it is something good, you eventually rob people of the capacity to distinguish between good and evil.”
~ Hannah Arendt

Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 10:36pm

I also ignored JFK's sexual affairs

@snoopydawg which has the exact same relevance as Clinton's.

Only Trump's accusations made it to court. So no, it does have credibility.

Submitted by snoopydawg on Thu, 10/31/2024 - 11:07pm

Lol…

@gjohnsit

Yeah his accusation made it to court after the statute of limitations was ignored and new rules were put in place. Did you read anything about the case? She couldn’t remember anything, but the jury found him guilty anyway? They weren’t the only ones who had TDS. And Clinton’s case was backed up by facts. I hope you survive the next Trump presidency like you did the first one.

—

“When out of fear you twist the lesser evil into the lie that it is something good, you eventually rob people of the capacity to distinguish between good and evil.”
~ Hannah Arendt

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 11/01/2024 - 1:39pm

I didn't compare Trump to Clinton.

@snoopydawg responded to the baseless claim that Moore was a pedo simply because he didn't support Trump. Which I'm guessing you feel the same.
If Clinton was still running for office, like JFK, then you would have a point.

Submitted by Marie1 on Fri, 11/01/2024 - 4:54am

Darn -- you made me look

when I had no intention of doing so. My last comment was when Biden was shuffled out in favor of Harris, and off the top of my head, I said she would lose.

The polling in this election cycle may not be all that good. The various pollsters didn't have the opportunity to refresh their skills during the primaries because effectively there weren't any. So, it's anyone's guess if one of more of them is accurately hitting the mark. Or if there will be one or more surprise flip states as there was in 2016 and 2020 (and 2008 as well). (Michael Moore was on the ground in MI 2016; so, he was able to read that flip. "Arthur" on another site spent time in PA in 2016 and reported that he saw a flip there that couldn't be seen in the polling.) In 2020 AZ and GA flipped, but those flips didn't change the outcome. GA, in particular, flipped because usual voter suppression was suppressed due to voting changes mandated by COVID, but it will return to the Trump column this time. I'm poor at detecting a surprise flips (as are most pundits), but I do kick myself for not having picked up on PA in 2016 because I rejected my secret sauce.

The good news for staunch Democrats is that Harris is mostly polling better than where HRC ended up in 2016 and Trump's polling in most states is back down to where he ended up in 2016. So, all the increased voter energy in 2020 for Trump and the Democratic nominee has dissipated. That (and Michael Moore's confidence) leads me to conclude that Harris will narrowly carry MI, and is having an easy ride in NH.

WI - as usual, will be very close. Trump, 2016, and Biden both won by only 0.7% Current average polling has Harris leading with 0.3% and the incumbent Senator, Tammy Baldwin, ahead by 1.0%. Baldwin won by 10+ points in her last election and 5+ in her first one against a strong candidate. Didn't like a split ticket in 2016 which was correct, but the winners were the Republicans and not the Democrats that I had projected. (In fairness the Senate race polling that year was total crap. Feingold was never in the lead.)

In 2016 and 2018, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all moved in the same direction. Trump didn't get Minnesota in 2016 but lost by only 1.5%. In 2020 he only won Iowa among the four states but with a smaller margin than in 2016. There's no recent polling in Iowa as Trump will win. Harris seems positioned to win the same three states that Biden carried by with smaller winning margins.

NC - Became interesting in early September. Harris closed the gap to within 0.1%. This lagged the opening of a very large lead for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate. He has maintained that lead while Trump has expanded his lead, but his margin is only 1.4%. Similar to his 2020 winning margin. Displaying his usual odious character, Trump has been campaigning in North Carolina making false claims about FEMA's response to Hurricane Helene in North Carolina. It doesn't seem to be helping him that much, but neither has it hurt him. (Note that NC elected a Democratic governor in 2016 and reelected him in 2020.) NC remains in the Trump column.

Bad News (for staunch Democrats) -
AZ - Harris is doing better than HRC but not by enough. Interestingly, in the open Senate seat, the Democrat has an average polling advantage of 3.9%. Does this suggest a 2024 theme; split tickets at the top - POTUS and Senate?

NV - Trump's average polling is 48.5%. In 2020 his voter share was 47.7% and in 2016 it was 45.5%; so in NV he has gotten stronger with each election. Harris average polling is 47.5% which is less than HRC received in 2016. NV looks poised to flip. The incumbent female Democratic Senate candidate has an average 4.2% lead (another split ticket state?).

PA - Harris has barely budged up from where HRC ended, but neither has Trump. RCP average polling has Trump at 48.2% and Harris at 47.6%. The incumbent Senator, Casey only has a 2.5% lead when in prior election his lead was 10% or more. In 2016 Trump and the Republican Senate candidate both won. I can't see Casey losing nor that he can help Harris. More split tickets? OTOH, in 2016 I got PA wrong because it was the one state where I projected a split ticket - HRC and GOP Senator. Being wrong again for the same reason at least says I'm consistent.

PA is ground zero. Harris must carry PA and either AZ or WI to win.
Trump wins with AZ and either PA or WI.

My preferred outcome is that both Harris and Trump lose. I'm sure that I'll be disappointed.

Submitted by TheOtherMaven on Fri, 11/01/2024 - 8:48am

There are only two ways they can both lose

@Marie1

1) an electoral college tie (unlikely, but possible) - in which case Congress selects the winner

or 2) a miraculous third-party sweep (not gonna happen).

when I had no intention of doing so. My last comment was when Biden was shuffled out in favor of Harris, and off the top of my head, I said she would lose. The polling in this election cycle may not be all that good. The various pollsters didn't have the opportunity to refresh their skills during the primaries because effectively there weren't any. So, it's anyone's guess if one of more of them is accurately hitting the mark. Or if there will be one or more surprise flip states as there was in 2016 and 2020 (and 2008 as well). (Michael Moore was on the ground in MI 2016; so, he was able to read that flip. "Arthur" on another site spent time in PA in 2016 and reported that he saw a flip there that couldn't be seen in the polling.) In 2020 AZ and GA flipped, but those flips didn't change the outcome. GA, in particular, flipped because usual voter suppression was suppressed due to voting changes mandated by COVID, but it will return to the Trump column this time. I'm poor at detecting a surprise flips (as are most pundits), but I do kick myself for not having picked up on PA in 2016 because I rejected my secret sauce. The good news for staunch Democrats is that Harris is mostly polling better than where HRC ended up in 2016 and Trump's polling in most states is back down to where he ended up in 2016. So, all the increased voter energy in 2020 for Trump and the Democratic nominee has dissipated. That (and Michael Moore's confidence) leads me to conclude that Harris will narrowly carry MI, and is having an easy ride in NH. WI - as usual, will be very close. Trump, 2016, and Biden both won by only 0.7% Current average polling has Harris leading with 0.3% and the incumbent Senator, Tammy Baldwin, ahead by 1.0%. Baldwin won by 10+ points in her last election and 5+ in her first one against a strong candidate. Didn't like a split ticket in 2016 which was correct, but the winners were the Republicans and not the Democrats that I had projected. (In fairness the Senate race polling that year was total crap. Feingold was never in the lead.) In 2016 and 2018, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all moved in the same direction. Trump didn't get Minnesota in 2016 but lost by only 1.5%. In 2020 he only won Iowa among the four states but with a smaller margin than in 2016. There's no recent polling in Iowa as Trump will win. Harris seems positioned to win the same three states that Biden carried by with smaller winning margins. NC - Became interesting in early September. Harris closed the gap to within 0.1%. This lagged the opening of a very large lead for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate. He has maintained that lead while Trump has expanded his lead, but his margin is only 1.4%. Similar to his 2020 winning margin. Displaying his usual odious character, Trump has been campaigning in North Carolina making false claims about FEMA's response to Hurricane Helene in North Carolina. It doesn't seem to be helping him that much, but neither has it hurt him. (Note that NC elected a Democratic governor in 2016 and reelected him in 2020.) NC remains in the Trump column. Bad News (for staunch Democrats) - AZ - Harris is doing better than HRC but not by enough. Interestingly, in the open Senate seat, the Democrat has an average polling advantage of 3.9%. Does this suggest a 2024 theme; split tickets at the top - POTUS and Senate? NV - Trump's average polling is 48.5%. In 2020 his voter share was 47.7% and in 2016 it was 45.5%; so in NV he has gotten stronger with each election. Harris average polling is 47.5% which is less than HRC received in 2016. NV looks poised to flip. The incumbent female Democratic Senate candidate has an average 4.2% lead (another split ticket state?). PA - Harris has barely budged up from where HRC ended, but neither has Trump. RCP average polling has Trump at 48.2% and Harris at 47.6%. The incumbent Senator, Casey only has a 2.5% lead when in prior election his lead was 10% or more. In 2016 Trump and the Republican Senate candidate both won. I can't see Casey losing nor that he can help Harris. More split tickets? OTOH, in 2016 I got PA wrong because it was the one state where I projected a split ticket - HRC and GOP Senator. Being wrong again for the same reason at least says I'm consistent. PA is ground zero. Harris must carry PA and either AZ or WI to win. Trump wins with AZ and either PA or WI. My preferred outcome is that both Harris and Trump lose. I'm sure that I'll be disappointed.

—

There is no justice. There can be no peace.