The Evening Blues - 1-19-23



eb1pt12


The day's news roundup + tonight's musical feature: Howard Tate

Hey! Good Evening!

This evening's music features soul singer Howard Tate. Enjoy!

Howard Tate - Ain't Nobody Home

"One Nuclear Bomb Can Ruin Your Whole Day"

-- 1970's Bumper Sticker


News and Opinion

US May Help Ukraine Launch An Offensive On Crimea

In a new article titled “U.S. Warms to Helping Ukraine Target Crimea,” the New York Times reports that the Biden administration now believes Kyiv may need to launch an offensive on the territory that Moscow has considered a part of the Russian Federation since 2014, “even if such a move increases the risk of escalation.”

Citing unnamed US officials, The New York Times says “the Biden administration does not think that Ukraine can take Crimea militarily,” but that “Russia needs to believe that Crimea is at risk, in part to strengthen Ukraine’s position in any future negotiations.”

It’s hard to imagine a full-scale assault on geostrategically crucial territory long considered a part of the Russian homeland not causing a major escalation. And as Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp notes, smaller attacks on Crimea have indeed seen significant escalations from Moscow, contrary to claims laid out in the NYT article:

The New York Times report quoted Dara Massicot, a researcher from the RAND Corporation, who claimed that “Crimea has already been hit many times without a massive escalation from the Kremlin.” But Massicot’s claim is false as Russia began launching missile strikes on vital Ukrainian infrastructure in response to the October truck bombing of the Crimean Bridge.

Before the bridge bombing, Russia didn’t launch large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Ukraine, but now such bombardments have become routine, and millions of Ukrainians are struggling to power and heat their homes.

It’s been widely accepted among foreign policy analysts that Crimea is among the reddest of all of Russia’s red lines in this standoff. Back in October, Responsible Statecraft’s Anatol Lieven discussed the difference in Russia’s perspective between Crimea and every other territory that Ukraine lays claim to in an assessment of the possibility of this conflict leading to nuclear war:

If Ukraine wins more victories and recovers the territories that Russia has occupied since February, Putin will in my view probably be forced to resign, but Russia would likely not use nuclear weapons. If however Ukraine goes on to try to reconquer Crimea, which the overwhelming majority of Russians regard as simply Russian territory, the chances of an escalation to nuclear war become extremely high.

Decamp writes that “The lessening concern about Putin resorting to nukes appears to be based only on the fact that he hasn’t used any up to this point.” But this is as logical as believing that it is safe and wise to jump even harder on the sleeping bear you’ve been jumping on just because the bear hasn’t woken up yet.

The assumption that because a disaster has not happened in the past it will not happen in the future is a type of fallacious reasoning known as normalcy bias. The assumption that because a disaster has not happened in the past it will not happen in the future, even though you keep doing things to make it increasingly likely, is just being a fucking idiot. It’s like Wile E Coyote jumping up and down on the land mine until it explodes because it didn’t explode when the Roadrunner ran over it.

Moscow considers Crimea to be Russian. A year after Russia’s 2014 annexation, western sources acknowledged that Crimeans feel the same way. But it’s actually immaterial whether you agree with Moscow or with the Crimeans over the issue of whether Crimea should be a hot red line which could spark an insanely dangerous escalation, because your opinions about this issue will not prevent a nuclear war. Your disagreements with the Kremlin about Crimea will not protect you from nuclear fallout, and they will not protect anyone else.

Nuclear warheads don’t care about your feelings.

Any assertion that Russia will not use nukes under such-and-such a circumstance must squarely address this question: “Are you willing to gamble the life of every terrestrial organism on that claim being true?” If you can’t answer this question, your claim isn’t serious or valid.

Are US officials willing to bet the life of every terrestrial organism that the course of action they’re considering won’t trigger a chain of events leading to the end of the world? This needs to be addressed fully, head-on, with all the weight it entails, because otherwise they’re just not weighing the risks responsibly.

And something tells me that they are not.

Weapon addiction

At Davos, Zelensky Tells Western Backers to Speed Up Arms Deliveries

In a video address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Kyiv’s Western backers to pick up the “speed” of their decisions on arms deliveries, a veiled reference to Germany’s hesitancy to send heavy tanks to the country. ...

The Ukrainian leader said the supply of “air defense systems must outpace Russia’s next missile attacks” and the supply of “Western tanks must outpace another invasion of Russian tanks.” ...

While entirely reliant on the US and its allies for his war effort, Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials are not afraid to criticize their Western backers. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said earlier this month that “no one has done enough” to support Ukraine.

Zelensky Forces Aide To Resign For Telling TRUTH About Russia!

An excellent piece by Aaron Mate worth a full read. Here's a taste to get you started:

'NATO’s mission' leaves Ukraine destroyed

Unveiling its latest military assistance package to Ukraine – at $3.75 billion, the largest to date -- the White House declared that US weapons are intended “to help the Ukrainians resist Russian aggression.”

For their part, Ukrainians on the receiving end see it differently. “We are carrying out NATO’s mission,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview. “They aren’t shedding their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply us with weapons.” Repeating a rationale offered by his US sponsors in previous wars, including the invasion of Iraq, Reznikov added that Ukraine “is defending the entire civilized world.”

Receiving an endless supply of weapons from NATO countries that shed no blood of their own -- all to fulfill their “mission” -- is an apt description of Ukraine’s role in the US-led proxy war against Russia. And as one of its staunchest champions, Sen. Lindsey Graham, cheerfully predicted in July, that mission is using Ukraine to “fight to the last person.”

For Ukraine, the costs of fulfilling NATO’s mission are spelled out by former US cabinet secretaries Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates. Today, the pair write, Ukraine’s “economy is in a shambles, millions of its people have fled, its infrastructure is being destroyed, and much of its mineral wealth, industrial capacity and considerable agricultural land are under Russian control. Ukraine’s military capability and economy are now dependent almost entirely on lifelines from the West — primarily, the United States.”

Rather than seeing Ukraine’s war-ravaged, Russian-occupied, Western-dependent condition as a reason to seek a negotiated end, Rice and Gates in fact regard diplomacy as an outcome to avoid.

“Absent another major Ukrainian breakthrough and success against Russian forces, Western pressures on Ukraine to negotiate a cease-fire will grow as months of military stalemate pass,” they warn. This result would be “unacceptable”, Rice and Gates conclude, because “any negotiated cease-fire would leave Russian forces in a strong position to resume their invasion whenever they are ready.” That is one possibility. Another possibility, unmentioned by the authors, is that a negotiated cease-fire leads to a permanent one. This would entail finally addressing the grievances of Ukraine’s ethnic Russian population – the proximate cause of the post-2014 Donbas war that preceded Russia’s invasion -- as well as addressing Russia’s longstanding security concerns about NATO expansion and advanced weaponry on its borders.

How DEMOCRATS Became The Party Of Endless War w/ Chris Hedges

Think Things Are Bad Now? Just Wait, Says Chris Hedges

New German defense minister plans major escalation of NATO war with Russia

The new German Minister of Defence will be the former Interior Minister of the state of Lower Saxony Boris Pistorius (Social Democrats, SPD). He succeeds Christine Lambrecht, who resigned from her post on Monday. According to media reports, Pistorius will be sworn in on Thursday in Berlin.

The change at the top of the Ministry of Defense will initiate a massive escalation of German militarism and the NATO war in Ukraine against Russia. Before the next meeting of the so-called Ukraine Contact Group in Ramstein on January 20, the NATO powers are preparing, among other things, the delivery of main battle tanks to Ukraine. Pistorius will meet US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Berlin the day before the Contact Group meeting, immediately after his inauguration.

On January 6, the German government, together with the United States, announced the delivery of Marder and Bradley armored vehicles to Kiev. The decision appears already to have been taken for Berlin to send Leopard-2 battle tanks. Eighty-two years after the Nazi war of annihilation against the Soviet Union, which killed almost 30 million people, German tanks are again rolling against Russia.

As Minister of Defense, Pistorius has the task of enforcing the war and rearmament plans against the enormous opposition in the population. At his announcement of Pistorius’ appointment, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) stated: “Pistorius is an extremely experienced politician who has proven his administrative skills, has been involved in security policy for years and, with his competence, his assertiveness and his big heart, is exactly the right person to lead the Bundeswehr (German army) through this epochal shift.”

This statement is unambiguous. Already under Lambrecht, the biggest rearmament program since Hitler was launched under the slogan “epochal shift” and a €100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr was adopted. Lambrecht stated in public speeches that Germany had to become a “military leader” again due to its “size, its geographical location and its economic strength.”

Azerbaijan Blockades Nagorno-Karabakh Region, Angering Armenia & Raising Specter of a New War

Netanyahu told by Israel’s supreme court he must fire key ally from cabinet

Israel’s supreme court has ruled that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, must fire a key ally from the country’s new cabinet, presenting the Israeli leader with a potential coalition crisis and deepening a rift over the power of the courts.

Ten of 11 judges on the high court found that Aryeh Deri, the influential head of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party who has served repeatedly in Netanyahu’s previous governments, is disqualified from serving as a minister after he was convicted last year for tax offences and placed on probation as part of a plea deal. Deri has pledged not to quit and met Netanyahu after the ruling.

“Most of the judges on the panel decided that this appointment suffers from extreme unreasonability, and therefore the prime minister must remove Deri from his position,” the court said in a statement.

Deri was defiant. “When they close the door on us, we’ll get in through the window. When they close the window, we’ll break through the ceiling,” he said.

France gripped by strikes: Thousands protest against Macron's pension reform plan

Jacinda Ardern resigns as prime minister of New Zealand

New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern has said she is resigning, in a shock announcement that came as she confirmed a national election for October this year.

At the party’s annual caucus meeting on Thursday, Ardern said she “no longer had enough in the tank” to do the job. “It’s time,” she said.

“I’m leaving, because with such a privileged role comes responsibility. The responsibility to know when you are the right person to lead and also when you are not. I know what this job takes. And I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice. It’s that simple,” she said.

Her term as prime minister will conclude no later than 7 February, but she will continue as an MP until the election later this year.

“I am human, politicians are human. We give all that we can for as long as we can. And then it’s time. And for me, it’s time,” she said. Ardern said she had reflected over the summer break on whether she had the energy to continue in the role, and had concluded she did not.

Biden Top Ally At Davos: GLOBALIZATION FOREVER

NY Senate Panel Rejects Hochul's Right-Wing Judicial Nominee

Progressive lawmakers and rights advocates in New York celebrated Wednesday after the state Senate Judiciary Committee voted against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul's nominee to serve as the state's top judge, Justice Hector LaSalle—whose rulings regarding abortion rights, labor, and criminal justice made his nomination "an absolute disaster," according to one critic.

The panel voted 10-9 against allowing LaSalle's nomination for chief judge of the state Court of Appeals to proceed to the state Senate floor.

The vote followed a lengthy hearing at which some of the Democrats questioned the judge about his past rulings including a 2015 decision in favor of Cablevision, which wanted to be able to sue union leaders for criticizing the company's response to Hurricane Sandy, and one which shielded an anti-choice "crisis pregnancy center" from a state investigation into whether it was practicing medicine without a license.

"Based on your record, I think that it's not unfair for people to project what some of your decisions might be," state Sen. John Liu (D-16), told LaSalle.

According to The New York Times, Hochul "has not ruled out taking legal action to force a vote of Justice LaSalle on the full Senate floor."

Worth a full read:

Four Crypto-Friendly Banks Are Being Bailed Out with Billions from a Federal Housing Program

Remember those Fed bailouts of the mega banks on Wall Street during and after the 2008 financial crisis that the Federal Reserve battled in court for years to keep secret from the American people? Those bailouts went to the same Wall Street mega banks that collapsed the U.S. economy with their unbridled greed and unchecked corruption. The banks were even allowed to pay big bonuses to their execs with the bailout funds. ...

Well, bailouts for wayward banks are back in style in a big way. According to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings made by crypto-friendly banks, Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) in San Francisco, Boston, New York and Pittsburgh have made large advances of money to banks facilitating crypto in various ways as bank depositors yanked their cash and/or the banks’ share prices tanked.

Among the crypto-friendly banks tapping into these FHLB advances are Silvergate Capital, parent of Silvergate Bank; Signature Bank; Provident Bancorp (owner of BankProv); and Ally Financial. This may, however, be just the tip of the iceberg because many crypto-engaged banks are not publicly traded and thus are not required to file SEC reports. S&P Global reports that as of October of last year, “the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was aware of about 80 financial institutions under its supervision that expressed interest in cryptocurrency-related activities, and about 24 of them were actively engaged.” Let that sink in for a moment: 24 federally-insured banks in the U.S. are being allowed by their federal regulators to actively engage in crypto when it has been thoroughly discredited by those in the know.

Bloomberg Anchors PITY PARTY over Tax the Rich Bills

Docs Reveal Hundreds of US Agencies Spying on Americans' Money Transfers

"These records paint a damning portrait of government overreach."

That's how Nathan Freed Wessler, deputy director of the ACLU's Speech, Privacy, and Technology Project, and Fikayo Walter-Johnson, a former paralegal with the project, introduced over 200 documents obtained via public records request and released Wednesday on the civil liberties group's website.

The national ACLU and its Arizona arm sought the records after U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) revealed last year that "Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), a law enforcement component of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), was operating an indiscriminate and bulk surveillance program that swept up millions of financial records about Americans."

Following a February 2022 briefing with senior HSI personnel, Wyden wrote a March letter urging DHS Inspector General Joseph Cuffari to launch a probe into the Transaction Record Analysis Center (TRAC)—a nonprofit created as a result of a settlement between the Arizona attorney general's office and Western Union, a financial services company that fought in state court against the AG's attempt to obtain money transfer records.

As the ACLU released records about TRAC, Wyden on Wednesday shared a new letter requesting that "the Department of Justice (DOJ) Office of Inspector General (OIG) investigate the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Drug Enforcement Administration's (DEA) relationship" with the Arizona-based clearinghouse.

"My oversight activities over the past year have uncovered troubling information, revealing that the scale of this government surveillance program is far greater than was previously reported," Wyden wrote to DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz.

"Between October and December of 2022, my office received information from three other money transfer companies—Euronet (RIA Envia), MoneyGram, and Viamericas—which confirmed that they also delivered customer data in bulk to TRAC, in response to legal demands from HSI and other governmental agencies," the senator divulged.

Some customs summonses—a form of subpoena—applied to transfers of $500 or more between any U.S. state and 22 other countries and one U.S. territory. Those summonses were withdrawn "just 10 days after HSI had briefed my staff" in February, Wyden noted, adding that HSI has not yet scheduled his requested follow-up briefing.

Summarizing the documents acquired by the ACLU, Freed Wessler and Walter-Johnson wrote:

From 2014 to 2021, Arizona attorneys general issued at least 140 administrative subpoenas to money transfer companies, each requesting that the company periodically provide customer transaction records for the next year. Those subpoenas were issued under the same state statute that the Arizona Court of Appeals held in 2006 could not be used for these kinds of indiscriminate requests for money transfer records. This means the Arizona attorney general's office knowingly issued 140 illegal subpoenas to build an invasive data repository.

The documents we obtained reveal the enormous scale of this surveillance program. According to the minutes of TRAC board meetings we obtained, the database of people's money transfer records grew from 75 million records from 14 money service businesses in 2017 to 145 million records from 28 different companies in 2021. By 2021, 12,000 individuals from 600 law enforcement agencies had been provided with direct log-in access to the database. By May 2022, over 700 law enforcement entities had or still have access to the TRAC database, ranging from a sheriff's office in a small Idaho county, to the Los Angeles and New York police departments, to federal law enforcement agencies and military police units.

As Freed Wessler told The Wall Street Journal, which exclusively reported on the materials, "Ordinary people's private financial records are being siphoned indiscriminately into a massive database, with access given to virtually any cop who wants it."

FBI’s opposition to releasing Leonard Peltier driven by vendetta, says ex-agent

The FBI’s repeated opposition to the release of Leonard Peltier is driven by vindictiveness and misplaced loyalties, according to a former senior agent close to the case who is the first agency insider to call for clemency for the Indigenous rights activist who has been held in US maximum security prisons for almost five decades. Coleen Rowley, a retired FBI special agent whose career included 14 years as legal counsel in the Minneapolis division where she worked with prosecutors and agents directly involved in the Peltier case, has written to Joe Biden making a case for Peltier’s release.

“Retribution seems to have emerged as the primary if not sole reason for continuing what looks from the outside to have become an emotion-driven ‘FBI Family’ vendetta,” said Rowley in the letter sent to the US president in December and shared exclusively with the Guardian. Rowley added: “The focus of my two cents leading to my joining the call for clemency is based on Peltier’s inordinately long prison sentence and an ever more compelling need for simple mercy due to his advanced age and deteriorating health.

“Enough is enough. Leonard Peltier should now be allowed to go home.”

Peltier, an enrolled member of the Turtle Mountain Chippewa tribe and of Lakota and Dakota descent, was convicted of murdering two FBI agents during a shootout on the Pine Ridge reservation in South Dakota in June 1975. Peltier was a leader of the American Indian Movement (AIM), an Indigenous civil rights movement founded in Minneapolis that was infiltrated and repressed by the FBI.

Rowley refers to the historical context in which the shooting took place as “… the long-standing horribly wrongful oppressive treatment of Indians in the U.S. [which] played a key role in putting both the agents and Peltier in the wrong place at the wrong time”. The 1977 murder trial – and subsequent parole hearings – were rife with irregularities and due process violations including evidence that the FBI had coerced witnesses, withheld and falsified evidence.

Peltier, now 78, has been held in maximum security prisons for 46 of the past 47 years. He has always denied shooting the agents. Last year, UN experts called for Peltier’s immediate release after concluding that his prolonged imprisonment amounted to arbitrary detention.



the horse race



Defeated GOP Candidate in New Mexico Arrested Over Shootings at Homes of 4 Democratic Officials



the evening greens


Revealed: more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest provider are worthless, analysis shows

The forest carbon offsets approved by the world’s leading provider and used by Disney, Shell, Gucci and other big corporations are largely worthless and could make global heating worse, according to a new investigation.

The research into Verra, the world’s leading carbon standard for the rapidly growing $2bn (£1.6bn) voluntary offsets market, has found that, based on analysis of a significant percentage of the projects, more than 90% of their rainforest offset credits – among the most commonly used by companies – are likely to be “phantom credits” and do not represent genuine carbon reductions.

The analysis raises questions over the credits bought by a number of internationally renowned companies – some of them have labelled their products “carbon neutral”, or have told their consumers they can fly, buy new clothes or eat certain foods without making the climate crisis worse. But doubts have been raised repeatedly over whether they are really effective.

The nine-month investigation has been undertaken by the Guardian, the German weekly Die Zeit and SourceMaterial, a non-profit investigative journalism organisation. It is based on new analysis of scientific studies of Verra’s rainforest schemes. It has also drawn on dozens of interviews and on-the-ground reporting with scientists, industry insiders and Indigenous communities. The findings – which have been strongly disputed by Verra – are likely to pose serious questions for companies that are depending on offsets as part of their net zero strategies.

Verra, which is based in Washington DC, operates a number of leading environmental standards for climate action and sustainable development, including its voluntary carbon standard (VCS) that has issued more than 1bn carbon credits. It approves three-quarters of all voluntary offsets. Its rainforest protection programme makes up 40% of the credits it approves and was launched before the Paris agreement with the aim of generating revenue for protecting ecosystems.

Extreme heat could put 40% of land vertebrates in peril by end of century

More than 40% of land vertebrates will be threatened by extreme heat by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario, with freak temperatures once regarded as rare likely to become the norm, new research warns. Reptiles, birds, amphibians and mammals are being exposed to extreme heat events of increasing frequency, duration and intensity, as a result of human-driven global heating. This poses a substantial threat to the planet’s biodiversity, a new study warns.

Under a high emissions scenario of 4.4C warming, 41% of land vertebrates will experience extreme thermal events by 2099, according to the paper, published in Nature.

In worse affected regions, such as the Mojave desert in the US, Gran Chaco in South America, the Sahel and Sahara in Africa and parts of Iran and Afghanistan, 100% of species would be exposed to extreme heat. It is not possible to say if these areas would be uninhabitable, but it is likely that more species would become extinct.

Researchers mapped the effects of extreme heat on more than 33,000 land vertebrates by looking at maximum temperature data between 1950 and 2099. They considered five predictions of global climatic models based on different levels of greenhouse gas emission, as well as the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates, to work out how exposed animal populations would be. “A couple of studies have shown recent climate warming trends match the 4.4C scenario much better than the other scenarios,” said lead author Gopal Murali, who was at Ben-Gurion University of Negev, Israel when he carried out the research. “We wanted to highlight the disastrous consequences for wildlife if we end up with a high, unmitigated emission scenario.”

Amphibians and reptiles were most affected, with 55% and 51% respectively likely to experience extreme heat events by the end of the century, compared with 26% of birds and 31% of mammals. Amphibians and reptiles are most vulnerable because they generally live within smaller temperature ranges.


Also of Interest

Here are some articles of interest, some which defied fair-use abstraction.

West decides for Ukraine without Ukraine, says Lavrov

The Death Throes Of The World Europe Made

Keith Davis, Jr. and Black Political Corruption

Microsoft MASS LAYOFFS As Tech Bloodbath Continues

I’ll NEVER Cross The Democratic Party! – Says AOC

Briahna Joy Gray: Davos Elites Did WHAT?! Inside Their Tax Code Grift


A Little Night Music

Howard Tate - Get It While You Can

Howard Tate - Stop

Howard Tate - Baby, I Love You

Howard Tate - Jemima Surrender

Howard Tate - I Learned It All the Hard Way

Howard Tate - 8 Days on the Road

Howard Tate - Glad I Knew Better

Howard Tate - Girl of the North Country

Howard Tate- Shoot 'Em All Down

Howard Tate- Get It While You Can (Original)


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Comments

mimi's picture

but I don't know why I do have them about tomorrows meetings at Ramstein. Perhaps because I saw a documentary about something horrible happening at Ramstein a while ago. . Luckily I forgot what it exactly was about and it was a while back. Like a year ago. Ooops something that happend more like 35 years ago, and I learned about it like a year ago.

Jeez, my memory is falling apart. May be that is good. Wouldn't it be awful to remember all the shit stuff I ran into over the years? I learn a lot through the documentaries, German public TV channels show about the US and its history. Unfortunately my mind is not holding it for a long time.

But I am determnined to fight my memory losses... one day.

We will see...

Good night evening bluezers. Amd thanks for the music.

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joe shikspack's picture

@mimi

heh, i think that perhaps one day when my memory of many events fades, it may be a gift of sorts. i dunno. perhaps then i will devote myself to more pleasant pursuits full time.

glad you're enjoying the music, have a great evening!

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7 users have voted.

RIP David Crosby, 81
Byrds, CSN, CSN & Y
a great balladeer

https://variety.com/2023/music/news/david-crosby-dead-dies-byrds-crosby-...

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Benny's picture

@QMS

I was literally hearing "Wooden Ships" circulating in my head before I saw a tweet about Crosby's passing. Another legend gone.

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9 users have voted.

One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will. To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--Tennyson

joe shikspack's picture

@QMS

a sad loss. crosby's music has been in my head most of my life starting with the early byrds, frequently becoming earworms. rip.

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10 users have voted.
Lookout's picture

Thanks for all your reporting and excellent music!

Always a pleasure...

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10 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

joe shikspack's picture

@Lookout

yep, the clips are pretty long but worth it.

have a great evening!

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5 users have voted.
soryang's picture

US think tank CSIS “relocation of tactical nuclear weapons in Korea, prior discussions should begin”

Jan 19

4 former high-ranking officials from the White House, State Department, Department of Defense, and intelligence agencies delivered a report to the US administration of Joe Biden recommending that “we must initiate prior discussions to redeploy nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.” As South Korea’s trust in the U.S. extended deterrence is weakening, it should send a warning that if North Korea continues to escalate its level of provocation, it could redeploy tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.

On the 18th (local time), the Korean Peninsula Commission of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, published a report titled “Recommendation on North Korea Policy and Extended Deterrence.” The Korean Peninsula Commission is co-chaired by Harvard University professor Joseph Nye, who served as Assistant Secretary of State, and CSIS Director John Hamley, who served as Deputy Secretary of Defense.

In their report, they recommended “preparation of pre-decisional groundwork for the possibility of redeployment of US low-potency nuclear weapons.” It was pointed out that the basic work should include the identification of nuclear weapons storage candidate sites necessary for the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons, preparation of facilities, security training related to nuclear weapons, and ballast planning exercises for nuclear loading certification procedures for USFK F-16 or F-35 fighter jets. . “This could put new pressure on North Korea without crossing the threshold of non-proliferation,” the report suggested. Before deciding whether to redeploy nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, it is necessary to review what is required for redeployment….

…The report also included measures to strengthen extended deterrence through conventional forces. It is said that the additional deployment of THAAD (high-altitude missile defense system) should be considered as a priority and the development of a “Korean-type Iron Dome” to block attacks from North Korean long-range artillery should be supported. It also recommended that the U.S. continue to deploy nuclear-capable submarines and strategic bombers, and that South Korea invest in facilities to accommodate nuclear-capable fighter jets. In addition, it proposed the formation of a ROK-US consultative body to respond to China’s opposition and military threats against the strengthening of US extended deterrence.

https://newsrebeat.com/world-news/137017.html

Looks like Donga Ilbo is the original source of this write up on the CSIS study. The CSIS study is being widely reported in the South Korean media. Apparently, Yoon’s recent garbled statements about nuclear options and training with the US on nuclear contingencies and disposition of nuclear weapons were based on consideration of these US policy proposals.

I get the impression that the US and the Yoon administration are collaborating behind the scenes to create the impression that Yoon is a great leader when it comes to national security, (which he absolutely is not) and at the same time present the narrative that the South Korea is buying into these provocative “options.” One wonders what the Chinese reaction would be to the reintroduction of US nuclear weapons on the Asian mainland. Meanwhile Yoon talks out of both sides of his mouth, saying he is open to cooperation and trade with China (at Davos). He’s too stupid to realize he isn’t going to outmaneuver or fool the Chinese. They have leverage on his economy, which Yoon is placing in jeopardy with his various diplomatic stunts. Then there is the US Chips act which has already placed South Korean high tech trade and earnings from China in jeopardy.

I’m somewhat disappointed to see the former USFK commander Vincent Brooks participated in this effort. On reflection, I think he was probably a source of language such as deploying nuclear weapons to South Korea should be a “last resort.” I’d rather he take a more public role pointing out the very real hazards of this escalatory approach. Sometimes words are acts. This is especially true in expressing intentions in the ongoing northeast Asian arms race. How is this supposed to encourage China to restrain North Korea?

惑世誣民 혹세무민

Keeping with the theme, my song today is Tumen River of Tears

두만강 푸른 물에 노젓는 뱃사공 흘러간
In the Tumen river's blue water the oarsman's boat floated
away.
그 옛날에 내 님을 싣고 떠나간 그 배는
That bygone day, that boat carried off my love,
어디로 갔소 그리운 내 님이여
Where has my missed lover gone?
그리운 내 님이여 언제나 오려나
My missed love, will you return sometime?.
강물도 달밤이면 목메어 우는데
The river too, if a moonlit night, chokes in tears,
님 잃은 이 사람도 한숨을 지니
Losing my love, this person too gives a sigh
추억에 목메인 애달픈 하소연
A choked heartrending moan of memory .
그리운 내 님이여 그리운 내 님이여
My longed for love, my longed for love
언제나 오려나 임가신 강 언덕에
Always on your way, on the hill by the river that took you
단풍이 물들고 눈물진 두만강에
The Tumen is dyed with fall colors and filled with my tears,
밤새가 울면 떠나간 그 님이
If I cry all night, that departed love
보고 싶구나 그리운 내 님이여
I miss so much, my yearning longed for love
그리운 내 님이여 언제나 오려나
My longed for love, will you return sometime?

The song was about the grief of a widow, Kim Jeung Son, who discovered after searching for years, that her husband, Moon Chang Hak, an independence movement fighter in the Heroic Corps ( 의열단; 義烈團 ), had been executed by the Japanese in 1923. The note explains the composer, Lee Si Wu, heard her crying all night in a inn near the river and composed the melody to emulate her lament.

My longed for love, perhaps better translated my longed for beloved, is understood to mean my beloved Korea, in occupation lexicon.

Thanks Joe for the nightly news roundup and open thread.

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語必忠信 行必正直

joe shikspack's picture

@soryang

sounds to me like yoon is being manipulated by u.s. neocons who would dearly love to plant their nukes as close to china as they possibly can. i would imagine that the neocons could care less whether south korea's economy is collateral damage in their provocative games.

thanks for the tune!

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enhydra lutris's picture

I can't help but wonder how many listening to Jimmy and Chris really fully understand how completely the fix is in and how many instead wonder how, exactly, we're going to fix this shit.

I got some shit in the mail today from an IRA type plan that I converted into an annuity upon the age for withdrawal. It says that as of today the actuaries say I've got 22.5 years left and my next years annuity is based on that number. So sure, I'm 76.5 years old,so i'll make it to 99. The question in my mind is how in the hell is that supposed to happen in today's USA, let alone tomorrow's? It boggles the mind. Do they factor in anything? Global warming, increasing scarcity of potable water, ever increasing costs of food, medicine and all that? It's pretty laughable, even without us trying to start WWIII.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

joe shikspack's picture

@enhydra lutris

yep, i kept thinking that chris and jimmy were talking past each other when chris was talking about the centers of power and jimmy seeming to think that power was susceptible to voting patterns. oh well.

heh, actuaries are so optimistic. Smile

have a great evening!

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