@snoopydawg

Who has a great knowledge of Russian military battles. I m seeing more people pointing to his essays.

https://bigserge.substack.com/

His latest.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-history-of-battle-maneuver-part?utm_...

#5.1.2

https://sputniknews.com/20221109/3-reasons-russia-is-withdrawing-from-pa...

Russia doesn’t want to see its people killed for no advantage and if Ukraine keeps targeting the dam their troops will be cut off and many will die. If Ukraine troops are hiding in civilian buildings then there is no safe way to target them without killing innocent civilians. I agree that it looks bad for Russia to retreat but hey maybe they just want to live to fight another day. Also the weather has been very warm during the rains and no troops are moving much. People should wait until the ground freezes and see how things go. Ukraine has been told to push their offensive, but that has seen over 10,000 troops die. And rumors are that the Nazi troops are in the back to make sure no one retreats.

But imagine what it’s like to put lives above taking territory. I’m waiting to see what happens before I decide that Russia is going to lose. Remember that they are not just fighting Ukraine, but NATO and gawd only knows how many mercenaries are embedded with Ukraine troops.

From the article….

Threat to Civilians

Surovikin’s concerns about the danger posed to Kherson’s civilian population are not academic. In the opening stages of Russia’s military operation this spring, thousands were killed or injured in Mariupol, Popasnaya, Volnovakha and other urban locations after Ukrainian forces and neo-Nazi battalions dug in, often deliberately in civilian areas, hiding in or near apartment blocks, shopping centers, schools, kindergartens, and even hospitals, to lure Russian forces into bloody street battles, and receive a convenient pretext to accuse Moscow of war crimes anytime a civilian building was damaged or destroyed.

By withdrawing forces from the right bank of the Dnepr, Russian forces have signaled their rejection of this costly and bloody strategy. Over the past three weeks, as Ukrainian forces amassed troops near Kherson and intensified shelling of the city, a large-scale evacuation of civilians was kicked off. In his remarks Wednesday, Surovikin reported that over 115,000 people had been evacuated, taken to Crimea and other areas deeper inside Russia.

The military’s strategy of evacuation and the creation of a defensive line that can be easily secured appears to be aimed at showing that Russia is not interested in "pyrrhic victories," and that Moscow will not succumb to efforts by NATO and its clients in Kiev to drown the region in blood, kill tens of thousands, and trap Russia in a hopeless strategic and tactical situation from which it would be nearly impossible to escape.

Lots more info in the article. Advise people to read it.

@CB have the same greedball, stupid, backwards, mindsets/PTBs pulling their strings that this country has. Don't fool yourselves.

#5.1.2
Odessa when Ukraine is finally conquered so as to minimize damage. The city is existential to Russia's history and I don't think they want it destroyed.

Putin was way too gentle and not sufficiently aggressive with his SMO. He should have destroyed every single bridge, rail and road, over the Dnieper River from occupied Kherson to Belarus to cut off military resupply to Eastern Ukraine as the opening gambit when he realized NATO was going to fully back Ukraine. Unless Putin finally grows a set, Russia may end up with the shit end of the stick.

He should take his cue from Xi Jinping. China understands that the US MUST destroy both Russia and China if wants to retain it's global hegemony and it will take all necessary steps to prevent this.

Pictures have emerged of President Xi Jinping donning army fatigues to inspect a military command centre after he declared China will focus on preparing for war.

@snoopydawg Big Serge's views are clearly articulated and as far as I can tell, accurate.

So here we are, November 10, waiting for the ground to freeze around the UKR fighters in Kherson. UKR will have difficulty with re-supply.

My guess is a massive air attack on Kherson after the Russian forces and civilians have reached safer ground.

#5.1.2

It’s his 1st one and he talks about what Russia did at the start of the conflict and what their objectives were. I’ve posted it before and I often refer back to it for a refresher.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war

Here’s a taste:

There are two aspects to this; one related to Ukraine, and one to Russia and the sanctions against her.

Let’s start with the Ukrainians, and more specifically let’s start by remembering that it was not Russia, but western agencies that predicted rapid Ukrainian collapse. Ironically, this was the low-cost scenario for the west. In the event of a quick Ukrainian defeat, the west would be left supporting an insurgency – as the Taliban demonstrated, this is a very cost effective way to harass and harm a great power. Instead, Ukraine stayed upright for the moment and is stuck fighting a costly war of attrition that it cannot win.

This is very important – instead of cheaply funding and arming an insurgency, helping coordinate acts of sabotage and the like (something western intelligence agencies excel at), the west (mostly the United States and to a lesser extent the UK) is stuck financing a hemorrhagic Ukrainian state and attempting to prop up its armies. This is far more costly than an insurgency, both in pure dollar amounts and in the level of munitions and equipment that are being poured into Ukraine.

And this one got lots of eyes on it from many other writers. Highly recommend reading it.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means

Side note the trolls are out big time on MoA. They are gloating about Russia withdrawing from Kherson. I scroll down to see who’s writing before I read their comments because it’s so bad. They don’t listen to what others say and they just repeat their stupid talking points.