Downfall of the American Empire

Afghanistan's reputation of being the Graveyard of Empires is actually a new thing.
You could say it started with Mahmud Hotak in 1722, when his Afghan army marched into Persia and ended the Safavid Empire.
Next came the British.

The most iconic moment of the Anglo-Afghan wars was the total annihilation of 4,500 British soldiers and 12,000 civilians in January 1842, during their retreat from Kabul to Jalalabad. Only a single wounded surgeon riding a wounded horse made it.
However, it didn't end the British empire in any way. The British invaded in 1870's, and this time their conquered Afghanistan, albeit not easily. Then in 1919 there was a third Anglo-Afghan War, in which the British won all the battles, but in the end they decided to simply cut and run.

The Soviets were next. After 10 years of fighting they withdrew in failure, and two years later their empire vanished.

“Since the Soviet army was the glue that held the diverse Soviet Republics together, its defeat in Afghanistan had profound implications for the survivability of the Soviet Union,” they write.
...
“The Soviets withdrew because Afghanistan became an increasingly expensive proposition for an empire that was crumbling from within,” Manchanda writes in her book Imagining Afghanistan.

I think that it is fair to apply both of those descriptions above to the United States today, but with modest changes.
There's been a lot of comparisons between Kabul in 2021 and Saigon in 1975. However, there are at least as many differences as similarities.
For example, the U.S. lost in Vietnam when our enemy was heavily supported by Russia and China. The Taliban beat us without any major allies. Then there is the status of the U.S.

The US was utterly dominant both before and after the blunder in Vietnam. Even after that blunder, the world was still divided between the winning West and the remaining Rest. Prosperity would still be primarily found in New York, London, Berlin, and so on.
That is no longer the case. The fall of Kabul was symptomatic and a product of the decades-long process of the severe weakening of American power, authority, legitimacy - in short, its hegemony.

Think of it this way. At the beginning of this century, America was dominant economically, militarily, and culturally. We actually had some claim for moral leadership.
Our moral leadership started to come apart when the US invaded Iraq in 2003. We not only disregarded the U.N. but also propagated lies about Saddam's WMDs.
Then the credibility of our economic order collapsed when major US financial institutions imploded one after the other in 2008 due to massive fraud.

One of the last elements of the American empire still functioning was the military. A military that just got beat, not because of the weaknesses of the soldiers, but because of the corruption and incompetence of our leaders. In other words, the same factor that caused all three of the failures.

So let's add this up. We've lost our moral authority because our leaders lie, cheat, and steal, and generally act like jerks to our allies, while being bullies to everyone else. Because we have no moral authority, we no longer bother with 'soft power' and diplomacy.
We no longer have an industrial base because our corrupt ruling elites have exported all of our industries overseas. Plus, the ruling class has become predatory monsters that are gutting the working class, and in doing so is weakening the general economy. Thus we are in the process of losing our economic influence.

This leaves our empire resting upon two things: the U.S. dollar and our military.
The strength of the military rests on the dollar, and vice versa.
We can force the rest of the world to use our dollars because of the strength of our military. We can afford such a huge military because of the strength of the dollar, which allows us to borrow so cheaply.
It's on this fragile edifice that America's empire rests. Which is why the events of 2020-21 bode badly for our empire's future.

ndebt.jpg

A lot of people on the internet will tell you how deficits/debt doesn't matter.
They're wrong, sort of.
The debt doesn't matter as long as everyone else in the world still accepts our dollars and uses them as a reserve currency.
But if the world start to question the value of our dollars, then those debts/deficits will most certainly matter! Doubt means risk, and risk means much higher interest rates. When there is already a mountain of debt, it wouldn't take interest rates to rise a lot before the U.S. would have no choice but to default.
Why would other nation's start questioning the value of our dollars? One of the reasons would be the loss of the ability of our military to intimidate the rest of the world.

At the same time, there is a collapse in faith in neoliberalism that is undermining the legitimacy of the ruling elite as well. No alternative system has arisen to take it's place yet, but that doesn't mean that everyone isn't coming to grips with the idea that the Reagan/Thatcher economic empire has failed and is coming to an end.

After it became obvious that we lost the Vietnam War, the United States was hit by a surge of inflation and a significant decline in the U.S. dollar.
This is despite having both the globe's strongest economy and strongest military. We had still had a middle class and an industrial base, and the government sometimes even cared what working class people wanted.
None of those things are true today.
Would a surge in inflation and a significant decline in the U.S. dollar be much of a surprise in the next few years?

Share
up
27 users have voted.

Comments

Pricknick's picture

Would a surge in inflation and a significant decline in the U.S. dollar be much of a surprise in the next few years?

Inflation is already here.
Next, some will be eating their bootstraps.

up
11 users have voted.

Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

The deep state will resort to military violence somewhere in reaction to Afghanistan. But no small time country to beat up. Every scenario I can think of like Syria, Iran, VZ is going to be an immediate and obvious mistake.

up
18 users have voted.
CB's picture

They have to ensure Americans will have money to buy their goods. But, when the BRI starts paying off big time, I figure the US will be bankrupt and of no more value to them. Meanwhile they are expanding the Digital Yuan to be ready when the time comes to replace the US$.

About 35% of Chinese do not have a cell phone so they've come up with Hardware Wallets. These can also store health codes. And, if you are carrying your new Hardware Wallet in the 2022 Olympics it will automatically pay for your transport and venue.

Hardware Wallets for China's Digital Yuan Sprung up During Spring Festival

After China rolled out the pilot test of its sovereign digital currency, or Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) last April, commercial banks have continuously come up with new design ideas for hardware wallets to be used with the new "Digital Yuan".

A hardware wallet is a high-security physical device that enables users to store cryptocurrency funds offline, in the form of cryptographic alphanumerical strings. There are all types of cryptocurrency hardware wallet manufacturers today who provide devices in various sizes and styles.

These hardware wallets are tools to expand fintech inclusion to youth, the elderly, and expatriates, enabling efficient payments, and enhancing China's monetary policies. The push for these wallets, as an integral part of a larger plan to make DCEP more available, fits China's goal of becoming not only a technological but a financial superpower. The earlier these wallets can get to the market, the better chance the DCEP gains even greater momentum domestically and expand beyond the country's borders via foreign visitors to the Winter Olympics.
...

up
13 users have voted.

@CB NT.

up
5 users have voted.
The Liberal Moonbat's picture

...HOW will this really affect the American 99%?

What do WE have to lose from the demise of what amounts to The World's Biggest Wicked Step-Parent?

No alternative system has arisen to take it's place yet...

What about restoring the system that preceded it??? That worked like a miracle while it lasted; everything we presently have that's worth having is its vestiges.

As I said before, the American Experiment did not fail - it was sabotaged.
What we have now is an opportunity to FINALLY get back on track....

up
11 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

@The Liberal Moonbat
The New Deal economy lacked one critical thing: it didn't address the subject of political and economic power.
Because of this flaw it's been relatively easy to roll back most of the New Deal gains.
That's why I think any new system will need to be much more radical than what we've seen before.

up
8 users have voted.
The Liberal Moonbat's picture

@gjohnsit That seems like the missing piece; as Capitalism: A Love Story did such a great job elucidating, America's New Deal was left unfinished - Germany and Japan got the improved package, and they remain among the few remaining bastions of civilization to this day.

up
7 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

@The Liberal Moonbat
It's a law in Germany that every major corporation must have 40%-50% of the corporate board be workers. That changes the power dynamics of the corporate culture.

up
8 users have voted.
edg's picture

@The Liberal Moonbat "the American Experiment did not fail - it was sabotaged"

Exactly right. Starting with Nixon, then continuing on thru Carter (The King of Deregulation) and Reagan (The King of Middle Class Destruction), we've been on a long downward spiral to 3rd world shithole status.

up
8 users have voted.

Your interpretation of Afghanistan is a bit lacking. The US was fully behind the Soviets collapse in Afghanistan by arming the mujahedeen. (CIA) Unfortunately their support of ISIS in Syria, Iraq. Yemen and Afghanistan at various times came back to bite them in the ass.

up
10 users have voted.

@humphrey

Your interpretation of Afghanistan is a bit lacking. The US was fully behind the Soviets collapse in Afghanistan by arming the mujahedeen.

But I also didn't dispute that. It's not a critical point in regards to the overall point I was trying to make.
I also didn't mention how Chernobyl contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union.

up
5 users have voted.
edg's picture

@humphrey Russia was smart enough to realize the US would fail on its own and didn't bother working with the Taliban. "Let the US spend trillions and end up losing," Putin probably thought.

up
6 users have voted.

@edg
Remember when the media was accusing Putin of "putting bounties on our soldiers"?
As if the Taliban required incentives.
Funny how that was forgotten.

up
6 users have voted.

of our moment. Our strength is our dollar and our military

Zero Hedge has an essay titled Why The Loss of Afghanistan Ultimately Ends Empire with the view that Empire is a British thing and Americans have screwed it up.
That's why we see Tony Blair complaining in public and Zbegniew Brezinski's name invoked.

Both views are probably correct.

Either way, the Ship of State is taking on water, We are the Past.

IMHO Afghanistan will join the Ship and Road Belt, the New Silk Road, and we will have to figure out our place in this New World Order.

From the Zero Hedge piece:

"The Empire’s imperative----

Historian Ramsay MacMullen suggested that in order for us to interpret history correctly, we must understand the motivations of groups and individuals who created history. Today’s empire builders are motivated by the overarching imperative to maintain hegemony over the Eurasian landmass. Sir Halford Mackinder explicitly formulated this ambition in 1904 in his Heartland Theory. He referred to the Eurasian continent as the World-island. In “Democratic Ideals and Reality,” he wrote:

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-island; who rules the World-island controls the world.“

In the aftermath of World War I, the Empire moved like a parasite to infiltrate the United States and co-opt its economic and military might to make it its own battering ram to subjugate other nations. In the process, it has made its own policy objectives American policies. Empire’s court intellectual, Zbigniew Brzezinski articulated these objectives as America’s own aspiration:

“For America, the chief geopolitical prize is Eurasia… Eurasia is the globe’s largest continent and is geopolitically axial. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world’s three most advanced and economically productive regions. … About 75% of the world’s people live in Eurasia and most of the world’s physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for 60% of the world’s GDP and about 3/4ths of the world’s known energy resources.” (“The Grand Chessboard,” 1997)"

It is going to be interesting, to say the least!

up
10 users have voted.

NYCVG

Raggedy Ann's picture

we are coming upon our Pluto return - death and rebirth. America is dying and will be reborn in coming years - before 2030. Stay tuned.

Astrology deniers, I can hear you. Pleasantry

up
6 users have voted.

"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

CB's picture

@Raggedy Ann
If America will be reborn before 2030, it will be a still birth. Blum 3

up
4 users have voted.
Raggedy Ann's picture

@CB
as I write.

up
3 users have voted.

"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

CB's picture

@Raggedy Ann
It's barely in the 3rd trimester and breech.

up
4 users have voted.
usefewersyllables's picture

@CB

is wrapped around its neck...

up
5 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

@usefewersyllables

up
5 users have voted.

Our economic strength today is a fantasy. It's based on economic rent and hyper bubbles, and an investment sector where only 10% of equity ever winds up in useful investments. I took the US PPP GDP and corrected it for useless economic activities, like 50% of our healthcare dollars, etc. and came up with a real PPP GDP of $9Trillion. I've got two other ways to do this and they all come up with about the same number. Compare that to China's PPP GDP of $24T.
Here's what happens. The US cannot sustain the fake economy. The bubbles start popping, driving other bubbles to pop. The US government cannot continue to print money to prop up the bubbles. The markets collapse, as they have unstable feedback mechanisms and are driven by perception. The US has the reference currency so it does not have to balance trade. Other countries get to eat dollars. This comes to an end rapidly by countries trading in their own currencies, and crypto currencies. External goods become unaffordable in the US as the value of the US dollar plummets. We have no way to stop this, except by increasing interest rates. At that point the only thing that the government can do is service the debt. In other words, the crash is incredibly unstable and the ride down is fast and we badly overshoot. The market value of your house will be wiped out, your investments and your savings in dollars will be worth a small fraction of what they are today. No one will be able to afford today's cost of living. How will the vast over bloated institutions be able to survive. Your city will lose it's tax revenue, same with the state and federal government. Schools will lose tuition. Who will pay the $30,000 per year tuition to support a college, when there are no jobs to be had afterwards? Who will pay $120 per month for internet access, or the same for cell phone service. Who will go to a doctor for a $600 check up, or $20,000 bill from a hospital for a relatively moderate problem? The point is that none of these institutions will be able to survive. We are one massive interdependent overinflated bubble, with no substantial core.
Afghanistan is the trigger.

up
2 users have voted.

Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.