@Pluto's Republic

Sorry to make this so long, but I needed to write it anyway. I suspect it won't help you much.

It helped me. Thanks.

While I was nosing through today's edition of the Corona Virus Update, I found this rather serious statistical reality -- whether it is the Second or Third Wave or just a variant strain, the shit is hitting Western Europe really hard. Not the overhyped and politicized threat of what we have seen so far in the USA, but another level of infections and deaths.

I'm keeping an eye on this, too. There are at least two variants that are very infectious spreading rapidly in the UK, and also in certain parts of Europe . (There are hundreds of variants, actually. I am referring to mutations with longer chains of complexity.) For a virus, these mutations are logical responses to barriers we throw up to prevent infections. When scientists see how these variants work, they can often guess which of our bright ideas the virus is responding to. Sometimes it may be an antiviral medication. Other times it may be something in our behavior, like wearing masks or remaining isolated from one another.

During disciplined lockdowns in places like China, the numbers of new cases will start to drop drastically — even while hospitals will be dealing with excess infections for several weeks. Meanwhile, massive breakouts will be resolving — either through recoveries or deaths. So, at first glance, the numbers present something of a contradiction in people's minds. Yes, neuroses are blossoming in the brains of the public based on their flavor of confirmation bias — but the lack of data in a stressful situation can easily result in distorted conclusions about lockdowns. Not altogether wrong. Just distorted.

What actually matters are the conclusions of SARS-CoV-2 as it tries to solves an unwelcome change in the human environment — for example, a slowdown in infections. A virus might react by producing infections that cannot easily be detected, resulting in more asymptomatic viral shedding. This works especially well in the US, where testing availability is slow and sub par. The virus may produce variants that work against aggressive immune responses that come from the introduction of donor plasma from recovered patients. A successful variant will figure out how to evade that sort of attack.

Europe is dealing with these types of weaponized variants, which tend to be more infectious on one hand or more deadly, on the other. Or both.

Now, in a place like Sweden, which took no evasive action, the resident virus kicked back and relaxed. There was no need for it to reproduce frantically. It could chill out and enjoy the show, secure in its future prospects. No need to break a sweat oozing out a desperate mutation. I suspect that the same viral attitude is present in Africa. "What's the rush, amirite?"

However, Sweden's EU neighbors were trying to eradicate the virus 24/7, the the virus was producing various mutations at a rapid rate, until one worked. Eventually, a traveler returning home to Sweden would carry an unactivated mutation. When it activated in Sweden, it was powerfully aggressive and went on an unnecessary rampage, tearing through the population.

That sort of unavoidable mutant rampage is one of the reasons that achieving herd immunity Sweden-style is impossible. It must be achieved all at once so a killer mutation doesn't have time to evolve and block the vaccine. It takes a super fast vaccine roll-out to beat this virus at its own game. Botch that and you're really in trouble! Israel pulled off an amazing feat in fast roll-out vaccinations. However, once must wonder if they used the right kind of vaccine....

Another problem with Sweden's concept of "natural" herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is the fact that people who recover from Covid-19 do not all develop immunity — or if they do, their immunity is often short or has a fast drop-off rate. This seems to be common among the elderly and high risk patients. So even if some people have strong immunity, much of the population will be susceptible and contagious again and again.

We don't know yet how long immunity will last, since it has only been a year since free-range Covid-19 broke out; and only a month since a large sample was vaccinated. But we do know something else that is pretty breathtaking: SARS-CoV-2 has figured out how to cross the blood brain barrier and hide behind the pineal gland for the long haul. Few of the potential treatment medications can go after it. Except for cannabis.

In defense of your position, I will say this. There appear to be a dozen or more simple and effective medications and devices that were not given to the people and omitted from the discussions and advice of experts. We do not have one procedure or protection that is a significant improvement over what was available and used in 1918. In fact, some procedures used in 1918 are more effective than what is included in our current protocol. I think that is exceptionally strange after a century of medical advances, don't you?

The US has its own unique problem dealing with variants. It's a large-nation problem. The US can't see the aggressive variants as they move through the population, so the country can't develop strategic counter-offensives in order to predict and block potential breakouts. That's largely why lockdowns don't work well in the US and why they end up being imposed nationwide, which damages the economy, as you say. China, with more than a billion people, CAN see the movement of the virus and its variants in real time, more or less. So, they can execute a surgical shutdown of one town or one province, while they keep their larger economy fully functional.

Countries that have centrally-controlled Public Health Systems that deal directly with the people have a significant advantage over the US when it comes to epidemiological options. Centralized public health systems are by no means infallible, but at least they have the tools they need to act decisively, and they are actively evolving their policies and fixing the bugs as they fight the Pandemic. Here's how that works: Authentic Public Heath systems will sequence the virus where ever it shows up, and then they record that data centrally. That way, central authorities can more effectively address regional problems without harming or panicking unaffected areas. (I know.... It's a form of tyranny, right? But that's how Public Health works in every developed and emerging nation. Full spectrum awareness is the only way it can work.) Conversely, none of the states sequence the virus in the US. Maybe a lab somewhere will study a new genome or two. That's the only reason scientists know the aggressive variant that is active in California must be moving through the the US — because it was sequenced somewhere in Texas and Ohio. Just enough information to make a mistake.

Sorry to make this so long, but I needed to write it anyway. I suspect it won't help you much. I do understand how it is possible to come to the conclusions you have.

Sorry about the typos.

@Pluto's Republic

Now, in a place like Sweden, which took no evasive action, the resident virus kicked back and relaxed. There was no need for it to reproduce frantically. It could chill out and enjoy the show, secure in its future prospects. No need to break a sweat oozing out a desperate mutation. I suspect that the same viral attitude is present in Africa. "What's the rush, amirite?"

Are you implying that viral replication increases when there are anti-viral threats added to the environment? I do not believe. Viruses multiply as fast and numerously as the environment will permit. This implies that the virus is smart. So the virus is territorial, too. Calmly reproducing in the peaceful times when one strain was the sole inhabitant of the biosystem.

While I was nosing through today's edition of the Corona Virus Update, I found this rather serious statistical reality -- whether it is the Second or Third Wave or just a variant strain, the shit is hitting Western Europe really hard. Not the overhyped and politicized threat of what we have seen so far in the USA, but another level of infections and deaths.

I'm keeping an eye on this, too. There are at least two variants that are very infectious spreading rapidly in the UK, and also in certain parts of Europe . (There are hundreds of variants, actually. I am referring to mutations with longer chains of complexity.) For a virus, these mutations are logical responses to barriers we throw up to prevent infections. When scientists see how these variants work, they can often guess which of our bright ideas the virus is responding to. Sometimes it may be an antiviral medication. Other times it may be something in our behavior, like wearing masks or remaining isolated from one another.

During disciplined lockdowns in places like China, the numbers of new cases will start to drop drastically — even while hospitals will be dealing with excess infections for several weeks. Meanwhile, massive breakouts will be resolving — either through recoveries or deaths. So, at first glance, the numbers present something of a contradiction in people's minds. Yes, neuroses are blossoming in the brains of the public based on their flavor of confirmation bias — but the lack of data in a stressful situation can easily result in distorted conclusions about lockdowns. Not altogether wrong. Just distorted.

What actually matters are the conclusions of SARS-CoV-2 as it tries to solves an unwelcome change in the human environment — for example, a slowdown in infections. A virus might react by producing infections that cannot easily be detected, resulting in more asymptomatic viral shedding. This works especially well in the US, where testing availability is slow and sub par. The virus may produce variants that work against aggressive immune responses that come from the introduction of donor plasma from recovered patients. A successful variant will figure out how to evade that sort of attack.

Europe is dealing with these types of weaponized variants, which tend to be more infectious on one hand or more deadly, on the other. Or both.

Now, in a place like Sweden, which took no evasive action, the resident virus kicked back and relaxed. There was no need for it to reproduce frantically. It could chill out and enjoy the show, secure in its future prospects. No need to break a sweat oozing out a desperate mutation. I suspect that the same viral attitude is present in Africa. "What's the rush, amirite?"

However, Sweden's EU neighbors were trying to eradicate the virus 24/7, the the virus was producing various mutations at a rapid rate, until one worked. Eventually, a traveler returning home to Sweden would carry an unactivated mutation. When it activated in Sweden, it was powerfully aggressive and went on an unnecessary rampage, tearing through the population.

That sort of unavoidable mutant rampage is one of the reasons that achieving herd immunity Sweden-style is impossible. It must be achieved all at once so a killer mutation doesn't have time to evolve and block the vaccine. It takes a super fast vaccine roll-out to beat this virus at its own game. Botch that and you're really in trouble! Israel pulled off an amazing feat in fast roll-out vaccinations. However, once must wonder if they used the right kind of vaccine....

Another problem with Sweden's concept of "natural" herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is the fact that people who recover from Covid-19 do not all develop immunity — or if they do, their immunity is often short or has a fast drop-off rate. This seems to be common among the elderly and high risk patients. So even if some people have strong immunity, much of the population will be susceptible and contagious again and again.

We don't know yet how long immunity will last, since it has only been a year since free-range Covid-19 broke out; and only a month since a large sample was vaccinated. But we do know something else that is pretty breathtaking: SARS-CoV-2 has figured out how to cross the blood brain barrier and hide behind the pineal gland for the long haul. Few of the potential treatment medications can go after it. Except for cannabis.

In defense of your position, I will say this. There appear to be a dozen or more simple and effective medications and devices that were not given to the people and omitted from the discussions and advice of experts. We do not have one procedure or protection that is a significant improvement over what was available and used in 1918. In fact, some procedures used in 1918 are more effective than what is included in our current protocol. I think that is exceptionally strange after a century of medical advances, don't you?

The US has its own unique problem dealing with variants. It's a large-nation problem. The US can't see the aggressive variants as they move through the population, so the country can't develop strategic counter-offensives in order to predict and block potential breakouts. That's largely why lockdowns don't work well in the US and why they end up being imposed nationwide, which damages the economy, as you say. China, with more than a billion people, CAN see the movement of the virus and its variants in real time, more or less. So, they can execute a surgical shutdown of one town or one province, while they keep their larger economy fully functional.

Countries that have centrally-controlled Public Health Systems that deal directly with the people have a significant advantage over the US when it comes to epidemiological options. Centralized public health systems are by no means infallible, but at least they have the tools they need to act decisively, and they are actively evolving their policies and fixing the bugs as they fight the Pandemic. Here's how that works: Authentic Public Heath systems will sequence the virus where ever it shows up, and then they record that data centrally. That way, central authorities can more effectively address regional problems without harming or panicking unaffected areas. (I know.... It's a form of tyranny, right? But that's how Public Health works in every developed and emerging nation. Full spectrum awareness is the only way it can work.) Conversely, none of the states sequence the virus in the US. Maybe a lab somewhere will study a new genome or two. That's the only reason scientists know the aggressive variant that is active in California must be moving through the the US — because it was sequenced somewhere in Texas and Ohio. Just enough information to make a mistake.

Sorry to make this so long, but I needed to write it anyway. I suspect it won't help you much. I do understand how it is possible to come to the conclusions you have.

Sorry about the typos.

@on the cusp

Somehow, auto spell was running, which followed me around and scrambled what I wrote into new words it liked better. It took a while to clean it up.

Thanks, OTC.

instead of Text for new variants?