Hot Air
The Mask, The Real Mask and Nothing but the Mask
It’s not just the mask, it’s the fit. Again we are faced (no pun intended) with conflicting information, much of which changes from day to day as new studies appear. There is a lot more science on masking up. Here’s what I could find that is recent and relevant.
Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2
These studies showed that large, ∼100 µm droplets produced in coughs and sneezes quickly underwent gravitational settling. However, when these studies were conducted, the technology did not exist for detecting submicron aerosols. As a comparison, calculations predict that in still air, a 100-µm droplet will settle to the ground from 8 feet in 4.6 s, whereas a 1-µm aerosol particle will take 12.4 hours. Measurements now show that intense coughs and sneezes that propel larger droplets more than 20 feet can also create thousands of aerosols that can travel even further. Increasing evidence for SARS-CoV-2 suggests the 6 feet CDC recommendation is likely not enough under many indoor conditions, where aerosols can remain airborne for hours, accumulate over time, and follow airflows over distances further than 6 feet.
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Face Masks Against COVID-19: An EvidenceReview
Multiple studies show the filtration effects of cloth masks relative to surgical masks. Particle sizes for speech are on the order of1μm while typical definitions of droplet size are5μm-10μm. Generally available household materials had between a 49% and 86% filtration rate for0.02μmexhaled particles whereas surgical masks filtered 89% of those particles. In a laboratory setting, household materials had 3% to 60% filtration rate for particles in the relevant size range, finding them comparable to some surgical masks. In another laboratory setup, a tea cloth mask was found to filter 60% of particles between0.02μmto1μm, where surgical masks filtered 75%. Dato et al (2006), note that "quality commercial masks are not always accessible." They designed and tested a mask made from heavyweight T-shirts, finding that it" offered substantial protection from the challenge aerosol and showed good fit with minimal leakage". Although cloth and surgical masks are primarily targeted towards droplet particles, some evidence suggests they may have a partial effect in reducing viral aerosol shedding.
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Health New UCSD research: Masks can help block out many aerosol particles
Health LA JOLLA, Calif. (KGTV)– A new study shows that wearing masks is even more critical than previously thought. UC San Diego researchers compiled several global studies that looked into how the coronavirus spreads and found that masks can help stop the spread of many aerosol particles. The idea of wearing masks has become a polarized issue in America. But Dr. Kim Prather, a distinguished professor at the UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography, says the science is clear. “Masks do filter things, and filtering does reduce the spread of disease. That we know,” Dr. Prather said. She and her colleagues released a new article compiling the latest COVID-19 studies around the world. Sneezing and coughing release large spit particles up to 26 feet, so that is clearly a point of concern. But Dr. Prather says we also need to focus on the invisible aerosols that can float around for hours, from asymptomatic virus carriers. “They don’t have a fever, they’re not coughing, they’re not sneezing,” Dr. Prather said. “But when they’re talking, they can produce thousands of aerosols out in their breath, and infect people for days.” READ ALSO: Contaminated Blood Inquiry: Cardiff campaigner branded 'thick' - BBC News That is why she reiterates that wearing masks is imperative. “You wear a mask not to protect yourself. You wear a mask because you’re being thoughtful and protecting other people,” Dr. Prather said. One of the studies compares COVID-19 numbers between Taiwan and New York, which share a similar population. While New York had more than 353,000 positive cases and 24,000 deaths by the time Dr. Prather’s paper was published, Taiwan only saw around 440 cases and seven deaths. Dr. Prather attributes Taiwan’s drastically low numbers, partly to the quickly enacted masking orders. “Taiwan never shut down. They just wore masks,” Dr. Prather said. So what kind of facial masks are most efficient? Dr. Prather says one that fits your face properly would protect you the best. Tightly knit, multi-layered cloth masks are good to rewash and reuse. Bandanas can leave many gaps between the contours of your face, which is why it may not be as effective in blocking out particles.
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I think that the science is clear that the wearing of masks is necessary.
The thread is open.
Comments
Well done. It seems somewhat intuitive, but it's nice to
have science. When I worked on Intel clean rooms, we could not enter without double gloves, bunny suits, full head gear. And believe me they had the technology to detect particles at sub micron levels. This is already twenty years ago. We had films showing what flows out of our ears lit up like your first photo.
The takeaway? If it's money, we have it. Health of the general population, not so much.
Thank you. France is in full mask mode since Monday.
A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit. Allegedly Greek, but more possibly fairly modern quote.
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Imagine how the following would be interpreted in 2020
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Good morning, magi ~~
If confronted by a non-masker, just tell them that you awoke with a 102 temperature, have been coughing and sneezing and just want to protect them from your illness. Walk away calmly.
Enjoy the day!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Good morning magi. The science is nice to have, but
there never was really any question except those generated by a) ordinary naysayers, easily ignored and b) governmental naysayers who, sadly, had undue influence beyond what their disinformation warranted because of their position and putative authority/expertise. In essence, masses of the populace fell for argumentum ad verecundiam.
I've been thinking about "the return to normalcy" and the point at which folks will stop masking and in particular the point at which I (or my wife and I) should. Throughout the bay area there have always been a number of people who always wore masks. Severe allergies paranoia, or what, always somehow crossed the mind, in part because it seemed odd. Otoh, we do know that air quality, especially in certain areas sucks terribly, that aerosol pollutants of a certain size can penetrate deep into the lungs and cause real trouble, and on and on and on. I think back to the day I contracted adult onset asthma and what triggered it. Medical practice being what it is, the diagnosis was somewhat wuickly made, tested, and found to be accurate, but the "trigger" or "triggers" not so. Years later, walking around the street I noted a few passing vehicles as particularly "dirty" and it hit me - I had been bicycle commuting to, through, and around downtown San Francisco early in the am and pm to avoid certain bike restrictions on the BART ride across the bay, at just the time when the place was chock full of idling trucks along every block of my route with a small supply of tour buses and short buses thrown in on the afternoon ride home. I've largely beat the asthma per se, except for very cold days, but a seriously dirty truck or bus will still get to me. Maybe I should've been wearing a mask all along, maybe most urban dwellers and workers should, and maybe I /we should continue to do so, at least in certain environments, until we see serious improvement in the average air quality and definitely during fire season here in California.
be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Facial recogniton AI is perhaps why they were discouraged?
Between phone tracking, cameras everywhere, and credit cards they know all about us (if they want) already.
Thought this Dr's take on masks to wear in crowded places like airplanes to protect yourself as well as others was interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEid0Hxt8mk (14 min with basic info below the clip)
On a non-related climate story, have you heard about the severe flooding in China as we send carrier units into the S China Sea.
We have war with COVID, chaos on our streets with federal invasion of cities, and now a war with China? How insane.
I do my chores early AM, and only leave the place a couple of times a week. When I'm out, I always wear a mask when around others and keep distance. It is a different world. No choice but to adapt. Thanks for the OT and take care everyone!
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
You can get masks
That look like you. But what is to stop you from using an image from someone else - Herr Drumpf for example?
It all reminds me of Robert Anton Wilson’s novel Schrodinger’s Cat where the response to the supremes banning various obscenities was to use the justices’ names in place of the banned words.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
I’d forgotten it was Robert Anton Wilson who did that
If you had asked me I’d have guessed / mis-remembered it as having been Paul Krassner or some such.
Somebody with way too much time on their hands included the names of three of those Supreme Court justices, Burger, Rehnquist, and Potter Stewart, in their personal hobby project, a list of fictional expletive words (NSFW / rated R).
"The Science..."
also says asymptomatic people very rarely spread the virus.
But hey, let's not let "The Science" get in the way of a cool laser-guided video.
IMO, if you feel you are at risk or are symptomatic, by all means wear a mask. But this constant drumbeat of coronashaming anyone who deigns to show his or her face in public is far more insidious to social cohesion than any virus whose symptoms many if not most infected people never even feel.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Not to be a dick but,
I've been in financial purgatory ever since I could not pay the 47K hospital bill because some guy decided, or was forced to go to work sick, and still contagious, with just the FLU! I almost died!
So, not wearing a mask because you don't feel like it or your disagree with it, or you feel it's an infringement on your "rights", displays how one's selfishness can be deadly, if not at least financially devastating to others, no?
To me, if you're around me without a mask, it's the same thing as pointing a gun at my head. You're a clear and present danger to my life, and I have the legal right to defend myself accordingly.
To me, and the law, you would be infringing on my "right to life, liberty and happiness", simply because someone is selfish and has no regard for others well being.
If my life or anyone else's doesn't mean anything to someone, well, that speaks volumes about their character, does it not?
Wearing a mask during a deadly pandemic which has claimed nearly 150 thousand people in just 5-6 months, would be much appreciate by people like me.
As an aside, I find it an interesting disconnect, how some people recognize the "precautionary principal" when it comes to the "climate crisis", but gee, a deadly pandemic, well, fuck everyone else, I have a "right" to not wear mask and not give two cents about other people.
I'm just saying...
PS: We had a record 30 COVID related deaths yesterday in Dallas.
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
So defend yourself.
Don't come within 600 feet of any other living person ever again. Have an n-95 mask surgically attached to your face. Live in an hermetically sealed bubble so you can spend the rest of your days ranting at people on the internet in blissful, zero-tolerance safety.
Nobody's stopping you.
But you can't seriously expect the vast majority of people who don't regard themselves as quite so vulnerable to permanently disrupt all of their social and economic habits (with devastating financial impact to themselves) just so you can feel a bit more secure in your self-imposed isolation.
Because THAT truly is selfish.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I can’t imagine you believe
This is a reasonable response to someone who has just told you they very nearly died:
Instead, I can only infer that you are here to insult those of us you feel are too stupid and gullible to be treated with any capacity for compassion.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
It's called irony.
Sorry if you didn't realize that my intentional overstatement wasn't meant to be taken literally.
Then again maybe you did, but figured it still gave you a good excuse to be a pearl clutching scold?
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
If climate crisis only affected people over 50...
I might be inclined to agree with the analogy.
But unlike climate change, coronavirus is almost exclusively an old people's problem, so you are basically arguing 'fuck everybody under 50 so long as I don't get sick'.
Which is IMO a similar attitude to 'fuck climate change since I'll be dead by then anyway.'
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Social Cohesion. Is that a thing where you live? How does
it work? Is it like neighborhood watch, or everybody buying and installing a ring doorbell thingie or what? How does wearing a mask destroy it? I mean, we have a friend who won't wear one, but we all expected that because she's so vain that we ll woner if she sleeps with her make-up on. Of course, we've known each other for decades, but it doesn't matter because we're not gathering indoors (or out it seems) for the duration anyway. So is it a dress code thing, like not wearing pants to a nudist colony but not going without them down at the local steak house, they're not hip or something, or what?
I can understand doing it as a political statement. I made a lot of them in my life and took a lot of flack for it, and knew that was the price and accepted it and that was that. "You don't like it? Don't do it, free country, do as you please and I shall do as I please and if you can't abide hanging with me/us, don't, no biggie, we'll get by." sort of sums up my/our attitude, and nobody in the mainstream seemed at all concerned over their refusal to be socially coherent with us. How is this different?
be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
You serious?
Do you have any clue at all about the social and economic damage the lock down is causing irrespective of coronavirus?
Do I really need to cite the dramatic rises in opiate addiction, domestic violence, homelessness, unemployment, poverty, depression, suicide, etc, etc., etc.
Or how about the fact that 50+ million K-12 students have already lost a semester of education (and likely more) leaving an entire generation of students with their academic development permanently retarded.
Not to mention the cultural wasteland created by a lack of live music or theater, sports, or group fun of any kind.
Think about it: the only live social function we are still allowed is angry protest.
How in corona hell does society maintain any semblance of cohesion in such an environment?
Facebook?
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
So, I'm not seeing any real answers there. There is, sadly,
an education gap that shouldn't exist and should've been prevented by appropriate government action, but is that what social cohesion is, education? All the other problems also caused by government inaction as well, all the billions they gave to banks, airlines, CEO's, wall street and the like could've been given to the citizenry to prevent them, but I'm not sure how that is social cohesion.
Live sports and live concerts, again, how is that social cohesion, beyond being the circuses part of bread and circuses, which isn't provided gratis in this country anyway, we have to buy it, which is crazy.
But what I was asking about is the assertion that criticizing people for not masking destroys some sort of (still undefined) social cohesion thing, which is, nonetheless, also somehow destroyed, by the wearing of masks, or at least unaffected by people opting not to wear them because freedom, or something that still makes not masking somehow a critical part of this social cohesion thingie.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
You don't see answers...
because you don't want to look.
But don't worry, if your snarky exercise in semantic criticism doesn't enlighten you to the issue of society literally falling apart at the seams, the next few months will help you see those problems much more clearly.
And who knows? Maybe by then you will have figured out your own name to call it.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
All I know is that you asset that there is some ineffable
part of the social contract that requires that non-maskers be above criticism, presumably some sort of courtesy, considerateness or politiesse, but that there is no reciprocal obligation on the part of non-maskers to be remotely considerate of others. No quid pro quo, as it were, which, since we speak of the social contract means that there is no consideration for the agreement. At law, such agreements are void.
Rather than explain this ineffable suchwhat and why its preservation requires that non-maskers be given special treatment, you now imply that society's collapse, as it is more likely than not to do so, is somehow tied to the destruction of this ineffable whatever caused by criticizing those who refuse to wear masks. That is, IMO, laughable, there are far too many real causes to take that into consideration whatsoever.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Kitchen sink coming next?
Again
You were talking about having to use a mask, but now you're throwing in the economic damage. Guess you missed all the times this site has talked about that? We are quite aware of the damage the lock down has done to the economy, but that wasn't the point of your original complaint was it? No it was about masks. Why keep ignoring the damage some people will have from getting sick? Yeah many people recover and go on to live happily ever after. Others do not and are faced with life time disabilities. If a mask can protect from that I will use one. BTW people have been infected more than once so you might not be as lucky if you get sick again.If you don't want to wear one don't. But:
Seems like a no brainer...
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
If you can't see the clear link...
between the mask requirement and the lock down, then all the assinine graphics in the world can't help you.
What? You really think the economy can ever truly open up again as long as the mask requirement is still in place?
You really think kids will wear them all day at school?
You think people at concerts or sporting events are all going to happily cheer through their face coverings?
What planet do you inhabit? Because on the one I'm on, masks are not normal, and anyone who expects them to become the 'new normal' is IMO dangerously off their rocker.
And let's not even mention the social control aspect of requiring face coverings for all citizens, which a lot of self-styled 'progressives' around here are apparently just hunky dory with.
Sorry, but it's fucking scary how many people are ready to chuck in literally all of their freedoms (and those of everybody else) for simply the FEELING of a bit of temporary security (which doesn't actually exist but I guess your fee fees don't care about that).
Seriously, what has happened to turn so many people here into authoritarian reactionaries? I truly don't know most of you at all any more.
Or maybe I just never did....
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Suggestion
Would you please post an essay about what you're trying to convey? I think I read that you believe you got the rona in Nov or Dec (if that wasn't you, my bad). It also seems like you're angry about something, but I can't figure out exactly what. I think it would be helpful, at least for me, if you put it in an essay, so I can better understand where you're coming from and what you're trying to say.
I say the above with absolute sincerity. I'm not being, or at least not trying to be, snarky or shitty. I have always enjoyed the majority of your comments, and I would really appreciate you putting your stance, if you will, in a one-stop-shop so I can better understand what it is.
What's the use?
It would be like trying to post an anti-Russiagate essay on Dkos.
Nobody wants to hear it, and all I'll get in reply is nasty personal attacks, frivolous misdirection, and a big stfu for my troubles.
Shame really, because I thought people around here were more attuned to how gaslighting propaganda works.
I guess all it takes is the right issue. Russiagate didn't do it. Impeachment didn't do it. But damn, one little virus hitting just the right demographic sweet spot and boom, all those quaint progressive concerns about civil liberties, public education, dislocated workers, etc. etc. are expelled faster than a corona virus through a handkerchief - only to be replaced by a constant barrage of corporate agitprop so clearly absurd that under any other circumstances it would be laughed right off the site.
I'm not so much angry as I am disappointed in the community response. I thought people around here were smarter than this. I am, though, fairly shocked by the level of vitriol I've had to shrug off just for arguing the virus is not as bad as it seems.
So no. Thanks for asking, but I'm tired of banging my head against a wall of hysteria and ignorance. Instead, I'm just going to slide on out the side door now and not come back until you all finally start to realize how badly you're being played.
So long, and thanks for all the fish.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
If you come back
I hope you will leave your insults elsewhere. No one has attacked you like you have attacked us just because you see things in another light. This ending to your comment is really uncalled for. As have many of your responses to other’s comments.
There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?
Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.
Mask comfort tip
Masks tend to come in one size fits all. Heads vary in size. If the elastic hurts your ears, my suggestion is a shoelace looped through both elastics and then tied snug enough to keep mask in place.
At my PT appointment yesterday, spoke with 2 men working there. Obviously, they have to wear masks all day at work. The mask elastic is so tight on them that it is causing them headaches in addition to the aching ears. One of them solved the problem with a chain of paper clips attached to the elastic. He knew it looked weird, but using it stopped his headaches.
"Social distance and if you can't wear a mask"????
This has been the advice in so many places, including my city. This is so wrong! We see many people on the street without a mask. They figure that they can social distance. An MIT study documented that small aerosols can travel up to 30 m from sneezing or coughing. They did a video of backlit fog from sneezing. Also, so many people are wearing them under their nose or just around the neck. Are we stupid as a people or just under-educated or just arrogant in our lack of concern about other people?
Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.
And here I’ve been OK with wearing masks because
years ago it was something one did to put a realistic finishing touch on one’s cosplay as a Japanese schoolgirl in her sailor-style uniform.
I love this lotlizard!
When I was little, my maternal grandmother and aunt used to assemble quilts in the middle of my grandparents' living room. My two cousins and I pretended they were teepees. We loved it. Imagination is a great thing!
As for masks, I like hoping I'm jacking with face recognition software.
Thanks everyone for your comments
Unexpected things came up today and I am still dealing with them. Nothing bad but requiring time.
Thanks for being here. Take good care and have a good one.
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I'm finding it all rather ironic
Up through last year the Western world was in a tizzy over whether Islamic women should be allowed to continue wearing traditional face-hiding veils (and also making fun of the Chinese for wearing masks on all occasions outdoors).
Now the shoe is on the other foot, bigtime, and we may all be wearing face veils and masks for months or years.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
The ceremonial duties of some civil service jobs in Europe
traditionally require officials in a public-facing capacity to shake hands, such as school directors in various formal social settings, town registrars congratulating newly-weds, etc.
Some Muslim women who refuse to shake hands with men or with any non-relative, and in some places as a consequence were being blocked from filling such posts, went to court charging discrimination, with accompanying controversy.
Now, of course, all of a sudden nobody is shaking hands anymore, and for the moment the question is moot.
The shoe’s not only on the other foot; public policy’s a centipede now with way too many feet, unshod, shod, and shoddy.
And with no idea how to progress!
A centipede was happy quite, until a frog in fun
Said, "Pray, which leg comes after which?"
This raised her mind to such a pitch
She lay distracted in the ditch
Considering how to run.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
My wife and I were just discussing that probable outcome
just yesterday and she noted that her dentist had just told her the same thing during her visit. There is probably good money for the first name designer to make them a fashion accessory.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Designer, haute couture face masks are already here
Paris Fashion Week: Facemasks on show amid coronavirus concern
Some of the ‘face coverings’ shown in this article are indeed very burka-like. It is a strange twist, for sure! Others in this lineup are just strange, although I think a couple of them are pretty cool.
It’s funny, my husband was mystified that I “needed” to buy about 10 different masks in difference colors and designs. He got a few identical plain gray ones and is perfectly happy with that.
I told him, we are all going to be wearing masks for a long time, and women, at least, will be expected to make them into a fashion accessory. It’s the same reason I ‘need’ at least 15 to 20 pairs of shoes, while he gets by with about 3 or 4. It will only get worse if I have to go back to working in the office every day.
I’ve tried to get him more fun, colorful or personally expressive face masks, but he just does not care. I figure if we have to wear them, at least make it a little bit fun. The market for fashionable face masks is already huge and I think will get even bigger as time goes on.
I've been secretly wanting . . .
. . . a hijab or similar head covering. Some of them can be wrapped around the face as well. I'd still wear a mask underneath. The idiots would probably think I'm Muslim, but who cares?
I want one with fangs, or similar. I figure if I had any
talent, I could customize my plain one, and may even still try.
be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Covid-19 is really bad for young adults.
Covid-NET, a surveillance of hospital admissions in 100 different counties spread across 14 states (CA, CO, CT, GA, MD, MN, NM, NY, OR, TN, IA, MI, OH, and UT), indicates that over the past 5 weeks, ~35% of Covid-19 hospital admissions have been 18-49. Cumulative statistics over the course of the pandemic indicate that about 1/4 of hospitalizations for that age cohort have required ICU treatment, and about 1/2 of that subgroup have required mechanical ventilation.
Now, if you know anything at all, you know that spending time in the ICU is, at the very least, an expensive proposition. Beyond that, some people — who don’t know what they’re talking about, but can’t stop talking anyway — would like you to think that it’s too early to know whether spending time in the ICU with Covid-19 will have serious long-term effects for the patients, but that’s actually a lie. We know that it will.
Almost all Covid-19 ICU patients are there because they’ve descended into Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), per “SARS-Cov-2” — the SARS stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. Which is to say, it’s an especially bad case of ARDS.
And guess what? People have studied the long-term effects of being an ARDS patient. And they’re bad.
There are lots and lots of papers out there. What most of them find is that generally "on average" ARDS patients are no worse off in the long run than other ICU patients, but then, they’re no better off either, and that’s too bad, because people who’ve been in the ICU are prone to several long-term “sequelae”. After all, many of them are in the ICU because they’ve suffered serious physical trauma, including brain injuries and terrible burns and irreparable spine damage and heart attacks and strokes.
Many ARDS survivors will experience at least one significant long-term physical problem, and most ARDS survivors will experience at least one significant long-term psychological problem. One year down the road, the majority of ARDS survivors suffer at least one of PTSD, depression, or diagnosable anxiety (and guess what again: These are more prevalent among younger survivors). Across all of the studies I read, almost all negative sequelae of ARDS were reported by at least 1/5 of survivors, and many were reported by 30 to 40%. (You don’t have to be an arithmetical savant to understand that this means that most survivors suffer from two or more of the many measurable negative outcomes).
One study found that 5 years after discharge, varying percentages of ARDS survivors had not fully recovered across all the different functions measured: Physical, cognitive, etc. At least two studies found that 1 year after discharge, almost half of ARDS survivors who had been students or workers, had not returned to school/work, resulting in a permanent financial setback, in addition to psychological suffering. About half of those who had not returned to work were on disability. Of those who had, many were working fewer hours, many had made a “major change” in occupation, and many had subsequently lost the job they had returned to. (Unsurprisingly, since many reported themselves to be “less effective at work”.)
So you see, we don’t need to wait a year, or two years, or more to know whether Covid-19 will have serious long-term negative outcomes for those who survive a run in the ICU. Of course it will. Why wouldn’t it?.
Something we don’t know is whether these negative outcomes will be exacerbated by the characteristics that make Covid-19 ARDS so much more deadly and harmful than typical ARDS: For example, hyper-coagulation, and the terrible lung damage that patients present at admission — no, it’s not from the ventilators, it’s observed on scans of patients before they even get to the ICU; in fact, it’s present on scans of patients who never go to the ICU. These negative outcomes are not, for the most part, about the ICU itself -- they're about getting so sick that you need to be admitted to the ICU. (Feel free to speculate that maybe Covid-19 ARDS will somehow magically be less serious for its survivors. Feel free to stomp the feet and beat the chest and blather that we cannot, after all, know that it won’t. Those of us who inhabit the Real World will recognize such bleating for what it is: Disingenuousness motivated by a toddlerish refusal to admit that one doesn't know what one is talking about, when one has been caught out.)
And finally, a little bonus cherry on top. Here are two other things that you cannot know:
A. You cannot know that anybody died of the Spanish flu. Because not one person ever tested positive for it. And we all know that diagnosing any death from any disease — say, for example, Covid-19 — based only on symptoms, without a corresponding positive test is … well it’s just a lie. It’s a big fat WHO/CDC/Pharma lie intended to frighten and confuse you by exaggerating the magnitude of the pandemic, if this silly little virus even deserves to be called that. Because always, and forever through all the years of human history, it’s been commonly accepted by the elites and the hoi polloi alike, that you can only assign a cause of death by applying a sensitive molecular diagnostic to identify the genome of the causative pathogen. That’s the only way it’s ever been done. I mean, ever. At least, until now, when suddenly we’re just going to take the attending physician’s word for it. Like, how did that suddenly be acceptable when filling out a death certificate? How gullible do they think we are? The numbers don’t add up. (No, really. They don’t. Way more excess deaths have been observed, than have been counted against Covid-19. Covid-19 mortality is being undercounted, almost everywhere.) I suggest to you that the Spanish flu was no worse than, uh, well, "the flu," but TPTB ginned up this whole story about millions dying to distract the increasingly rebellious public from the mountains of war casualties in Europe. By inventing this whole Spanish flu deal, the armaments manufacturers and the, uh, you know, bankers (wink wink) hoped to keep the big war gravy train rolling on for another year or two. And if you think that's crazy talk, all I'm gonna say is this: Were you there?
B. You cannot know that you’ve had Covid-19, if you haven’t been tested. No, really — I mean, if you happen to have died of respiratory failure after suffering a high fever for a few days, then, yeah it’s a pretty good bet, go ahead and brag about it -- but if you're still alive and you never even ended up in the hospital, well, not so much. So, uh, if epistemology is your bag, if you like to run your rhetoric along the rails of what is knowable and unknowable, well, um, then, you shouldn’t claim to have had Covid-19 unless you’ve tested positive. For that matter, you shouldn’t even believe it, never mind claim it, but I’ve seen plenty of people doing so. Which is funny, because 85% of people who are sick enough to go to their doctor or to urgent care and get tested, test negative. So. You know. What are the odds, really, that that's what you had?
And that's it for now, I'm crawling back into my cave for another fortnight or so. Or longer, I hope. Forever would suit me fine.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Can you be bribed?
Well, some of us hope it isn't longer ...and especially not forever.
what traverlerxxx said
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Your comment in general
...is verifiable and remarkable fact. Parts of it that may sound extreme to even your own ears are actually known-knowns among those who need to know. The fatality rate of patients put on ventilation in New York was over 90 percent. That was not made common knowledge but it may explain why infection hot-spots in the world have more ventilators than they plan to use.
Just one quibble. There was nothing ordinary about the Spanish Flu.
It is true, the public wanted no part of the WWI slaughter. But that flu's death rates being used as a distraction is a thin speculation. US war involvement was due to the trickery of the Council on Foreign Relations. Their work continues at an extreme level right now, with the push for a physical world war for empire, without delay. I don't see how a pandemic was useful to the CFR then or now. The Biden ticket gives the CFR total control over State and Defense. The draft is automatic. With or without a flu, doomsday war seems inevitable. Without a world war now, the dollar will crash to its debt value, closing all foreign military bases.
There have been four coronavirus pandemics, plus the common cold.
A century of science has failed to create a vaccine for any of them.
All this flies above the intellectual awareness of Americans, who have been groomed for little more than war cheerleading and cannon fodder. If Americans are not triggered to fight the Russians or Chinese, it appears that they will be fighting the unfinished Civil War at home.
Snark lurking
Yes, UR knows that. He was using sarcasm, and his sentence, "I suggest to you that the Spanish flu was no worse than, uh, well, "the flu," but TPTB ginned up this whole story about millions dying to distract the increasingly rebellious public from the mountains of war casualties in Europe" was speaking in the sarcastic voice he'd been using.
Perhaps you were misled, as he had just spoken as the real UR with the preceding sentence, which was in parenthesis: "(No, really. They don’t. Way more excess deaths have been observed, than have been counted against Covid-19. Covid-19 mortality is being undercounted, almost everywhere.)" After that, he went back to the sarcastic voice.
Sarcasm – always dangerous on the Internet.
Heh... double snark lurking?
I thought the snark in UR’s comment was quite clear. Satire at its finest.
What I cannot figure out, however, is whether Pluto was actually unaware of that, or if his/her comment is an attempt at replying in kind, i.e., an entirely sarcastic/snark response. I honestly do not know.
Confusion
Yes, exactly. That's why, at the risk of sounding like the Grammar Police or something, I went ahead and posted what I did. I'm thinking maybe I should have PM'd Pluto, but I'll let it stand for now.
I am always interested in what Pluto has to say, or I'd have kept my mouth shut. Still not certain I should've opened it...
Thanks Macduff, and don't be such a damn stranger, ok.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
^^^This right here^^^
Thank you for “crawling out of your cave“ and offering a competent overview on the science of this disease while also highlighting the dangerously incompetent beliefs proliferating everywhere I look. A recent phenomenon that has been so upsetting for me personally, I doubt very much I will be commenting much here myself as well.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Anja
Your voice is important here. Please don’t let the debbie downers deter you. Very same for UR. Agree. No hiding under rocks, in caves, under beds ( unless there is an earthquake ).
Thinking respectful disagreement is a good thing. Meanness not so much. Really pushes my buttons. Want those people to stfu, but it’s outta my control so I try to ignore.
Again really appreciate your posts and comments. Peace out.
Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation
Hot Air Website, Twitter, Facebook
Gotta link?
For someone who is so smug about your own scientific certainty, and so quick to accuse others of lying, you sure do have a chronic problem with citing evidence for your own claims.
Where are you getting this from?
Because according to COVID-NET, the cumulative COVID hospitalization rate for age groups ending the week of July 11 is as follows:
Nowhere do those lines even come close to suggesting that 18-49s have ever made up over a third of the hospitalizations. Where are you getting those figures from?
Looking at the actual data, the total odds of someone under 18-49 being hospitalized during the COVID outbreak is 72.4 out of 100,000 or .000724 or .0724% (that's seven 100ths of one percent if you are having trouble with the math).
So even assuming your mystery numbers are accurate, and 1/4 of those hospitalizations require ICU, that puts the odds of an 18-49 year old being placed in ICU for COVID at less than .02% (.000181).
And talking half again, were down to less than a .01% (.0000905) chance for 18-49s on ventilators.
That's 9 out of 100000 for those playing at home.
And that's no lie.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
All right. This one time.
This one time, I’ll let you ask me about my affairs.*
This is the third time (that I’ve seen) that you’ve posted a cumulative time-series chart in a context where using a cumulative chart is guaranteed to disguise the true character of the data of interest. It takes a fairly sophisticated (or highly intuitive) analyst to be able to look at a cumulative chart and grasp the real story it is telling; In this case, to be able to examine the chart you posted and realize that, although you think it contradicts the numbers I posted, it does not. Actually, it would take an extraordinary analyst to be certain that it does not, but there’s nothing on the face of it that clearly contradicts what I said, which doesn’t surprise me, because it’s based on exactly the same data I was looking at. However, I was looking at the correct type of charts for doing the analysis in question — the non-cumulative charts showing the weekly numbers.
These charts show the data that got accumulated into the chart you posted. They tell the story very clearly: Early on in the pandemic, the hospitalized cases were skewed very strongly to the oldest demographics. This isn’t a surprise. We know that in its first expansion, the virus raged through long-term care facilities and multigenerational households. (Well, we think we know, but hey, maybe it’s all just a massive gaslighting propaganda campaign, in which dozens of employees at long-term care facilities have been recruited by eebil gubmint/NGO bureaucrats -- working for the oligarchs -- to make it all up. Imagine how surprised all those families will be to discover that their loved ones are still alive! Or maybe they never existed, like those 5-year-olds in Sandy Hook. Nonetheless, for the sake of, um, my narrative I guess, I’m going to go with the “official story”.) The enormous gap shown in your cumulative chart between the curve for old folks and the curve for younger folks was almost all built up between the Ides of March and the End of May.
However, in recent weeks — my post said “in the past 5 weeks”, though with the latest data they’ve posted it would be “past 6 weeks” — that original surge in elderly cases has given way to a demographic profile more closely aligned to the overall American profile (with under-18s still very rare). Careful readers may even note that, in the name of not being the victim of some sort of pedantic “GOTCHA, YOU GASLIGHTING MINION OF THE DEEP STATE” moment, I actually low-balled the fraction of new cases that are in the 18-49 demographic. (I could write a book — or at least, a long chapter in some other book — about how fear of having some anti-reality clown jump all over a small discrepancy in a statistic or a prediction leads scientists and bureaucrats to underestimate the severity of looming sorrows. It would begin with the story of how the baker’s dozen supposedly came to be, namely, that the punishment for delivering an undercount was so brutal that rather than risk the inevitable error, bakers just started tossing in a 13th bun.)
As for this statement:
... well it’s technically meaningless, but that’s better than what I think it was intended to mean, which was, “Don’t worry about getting seriously ill in the future, because very few people your age have gotten seriously ill so far.” The same sentence could have been addressed to the 80+ set back on March 15, which should be all of the rebuttal I need to provide. I will go on, however, and note that the whole reason for the various measures we’ve been taking since late March (masks, sheltering at home, banning large gatherings, closing schools) was to try to stop the virus from exploding out into the general population, so it would be a real drag if [Quick EDIT:] 1/100 18-49rs had been hospitalized at this point.
There are probably some readers here who believe that like you (per your own comment elsewhere in this thread), I have an explicit agenda, but that it is the mirror-image of yours; that my purpose is to ensure that everybody thinks the virus is a bigger threat than it is. Actually, my only agenda is to ensure that people opining on the threat from either direction offer us all the simple respect of telling the truth, about what they know, about what they don’t know, and about what appears to be known or not by the rest of the human race. I don’t have all the answers, and neither does anybody else, including the legions of scientists, MDs, nurses, nurse practictioners, hospital admins, NGO bureaucrats and government bureaucrats who are required in their daily lives, not just to harrumph with simultaneous ignorance and authority, but to make actual concrete choices about what the fuck to do next — choices that will have enormous consequences for the patient on the table in front of them, or for the community in which they live, or for our whole fricking civilization. The suggestion that the majority of the members of each of those tribes mentioned above have somehow succumbed to a hive mind whose purpose is to enslave us all is offensive beyond my ability to express. Nobody is gaslighting anybody.
A. I’m not personally decided on the risk of opening schools, or whether that risk is worth taking.
B. I’m not certain that this virus will kill more than a half-million or so Americans in its first sweep (though it’s hard to imagine how it could have failed to kill any fewer than that, had we not taken the draconian measures that we did to slow its spread while we studied it and investigated possible treatments).
C. I’m not certain that after its first sweep through the population it won’t behave similarly to the seasonal flu, such that if we can develop an effective (even if only for a year or so) vaccine, we can keep annual mortality down in the 20K-50K range.
D. I’m not certain whether someone catching the virus for a second time, a year after the first, will more likely have a milder case, or a more severe case.
E. I’m not certain that Covid-19 won’t become an endemic disease that kills 250k Americans per year, or if it does, what the hell we should do about that.
F. Although I am certain that serious cases of Covid-19 will have significant downstream long-term negative effects on the lives of the patients, I only know the minimum extent of such things; and I know very little about the long-term consequences of less severe cases, though it is plain that a significant fraction of hospitalizations are accompanied by nasty lung damage, and we don't know whether that damage will ever fully heal.
G. etc.
Meanwhile, since I'm already here, I should make two minor corrections to my original comment.
1. I shouldn't have said, "Young adults," which in normal use refers pretty much to people in their late teens, and perhaps some in their very early 20s. Maybe just "adults under 50" would have been better.
2. My snark notwithstanding, to be absolutely truthful, I believe that a very small number of people who died during the Spanish influenza pandemic actually did test positive for the virus -- though relatively recently, when their corpses were dug up and the virus extracted, identified, and sequenced. I don't know the details though.
*Because I think I owe that to the people who read my comment, and then your response, and now they’re thinking, “Hey, wait!?!? Is UR a paid gaslighter, out to fuck up our brains?”
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
1918/2009
Thanks, UR. Your points A through G are well taken.
If you are speaking of the 1918 flu epidemic when you said, "...I believe that a very small number of people who died during the Spanish influenza pandemic actually did test positive for the virus," then, yes, a few did test positive. Wish I could give exact links, but around two months ago I did some reading regarding several corpses that had been excavated starting in the 1950s (I believe).
One doctor was behind this task. Of course, in the 50s we still didn't have the knowledge and technology to determine whether the 1918 virus was the cause. Forward thinking people in the 50s put tissue "on ice," and many years later it was able to be used to confirm the exact virus. (This was many years later, but the same doctor was involved. Of course he was quite elderly then.) The original corpses were in northern Alaska and well preserved due to the cold. Later corpses were dug up in - if I recall correctly - one of the Carolinas. Same result - the H1N1 swine flu of 2009 was the same virus as in 1918.
I may have some of this off a mite as I am a layman, but if you're interested I'm sure you could find the information easily. I found the story fascinating.
By the way, my grandfather was one of the first to get the 1918 virus. He had a farm next to Ft. Riley, Kansas, and was also inducted into the army and stationed at Ft. Riley. Although the virus did not start exactly at Ft. Riley, I believe the first major outbreak was there. Obviously, my grandfather did not expire due to it. Lucky for me, eh? He also was on a troop ship, headed for WWI when - just out of sight of NYC - they were told to turn around. The war had ended. Another lucky break. Grandfather lived until the 1980s. Interestingly enough, his obituary listed lung and heart damage from the 1918 flu as major contributors to his death. So, in the end, it still got him.
Fuzzy numbers?
.
My co-worker's next door neighbor tested positive, was admitted to hospital, sent home, readmitted, then developed pneumonia. Her death is not reflected (yet) in the publicly available county data. She died two weeks ago. I will not be surprised if they consider her death as pneumonia, rather than covid19.
The crowd who thinks the entire virus is a hoax believe that no one has really died, all the numbers are fake and we're being trained to wear masks because something. I still can't figure it out. They claim the hospital "gets" $40,000 for a covid19 death. I have no idea where that's supposedly coming from.
At first I thought huge discrepancies from state to state might have to do with the political party this governor or that governor belongs to, but I don't think that works. Admitting to higher positive rates and death tolls makes the governor admitting the info to the public a loser in the reverse pissing contest.
It would certainly be nice to be able to trust what we're told, but pies and skies I suppose. As it is, I just assume everyone I see is infected and assume that the numbers are vastly under reported. Human behavior spreads it, and humans prove every day how incredibly stupid we can be.
mask photo
Day late dollar short. This is (a poorly cropped) photo of the custom mask my neighbor sewed for me, I picked the pattern from a pile she had laying around before the lock down. It is called Spiky:
I had to measure my face from bridge of nose to chin, and then nose to ears. 5 inches all ways for my small face, but if I had to again I'd add another half inch vertically... for shouting and laughing. Otherwise it slips down the bridge of my nose too far. It is not a laughing mask, nor a protesting mask, it is mainly a shopping mask but I use it for everything. It has two separate layers of fabric, and a pocket for a third paper liner. I've washed the hell out of it without the paper liner, and it is holding up well.
Me and Spiky were in the garage talking to my landlord and his mask when he sneezed loudly mid-sentence. "I'm not sick, this is normal" was his comment, and gawd that was funny! We riffed on "I'm not sick, this is normal" and all the different ailments that arise as we get older. Aging is a sickness in this culture, so is getting sick. Getting sick is a sickness? Yes, and it makes certain people stinking rich so, good luck.
Skilled Nursing Facilities are "where old people go to die", that is what my neighbor thinks anyway. You don't go there to get better, you "go there to die." I'd rather not, thanks.
peace and love
Hi, Magi--thank you for this excellent essay. May
have an additional comment or two, after I watch the video you posted. For now, gotta run and prepare for a virtual meeting.
Hope you're not in an area that's a 'hotspot.' We're not, although reports are that Nashville has had a pretty nasty surge in cases.
For the most part, agree with Fauci that it should go by circumstances--lockdowns, that is. (OTHO, can't imagine why folks don't want to wear a face mask when in public, if for no other reason than the old bromide, "better safe, than sorry!")
We've had only had a handful of deaths in our county, and, none for 4 months. Until, college kids hit town.
That's what people should be up in arms about, since it's obvious that, with their mobility, they're a considerably greater threat (when it comes to spreading COVID) than very young school children would likely be.
(IOW, a young child's environment is normally a controlled situation--they go to school, then, are returned to, hopefully, a responsible adult/parent for supervision.)
Several folks we know are considering filing a class action suit against the TN Board of Regents, and several major universities (for re-opening this early). We're watching the stats very carefully.
(For instance, the face mask so-called mandate at one of the major University's is extremely lax. And, no temperature checks are mandatory--the Administration expects all students and faculty to do their own temp monitoring on the 'honor system,' I suppose.)
Take care, and stay safe.
Mollie
"The leaders of this new movement are replacing traditional liberal beliefs about tolerance, free inquiry, and even racial harmony with ideas so toxic and unattractive that they eschew debate, moving straight to shaming, threats, and intimidation."
~~Matt Taibbi, The American Press Is Destroying Itself, June 12, 2020
"I know, I know. All passion; no street smarts."
~~Captain West, 1992 Rob Reiner/Aaron Sorkin Movie, A Few Good Men
“If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die, I want to go where they went.”
~~Will Rogers, Actor & Social Commentator (1856-1950)
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Waving my hand from the back row “”"
Time will tell, won’t it?
In the meantime, do what feels right to you.