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Red states are now experiencing a rise in SARS-CoV-2 cases. This should not surprise. As states reopen they will provide more vectors for the coronavirus to spread.

At this time, since there is no plan in place, we need every tool to protect ourselves and those around us. Here is a useful reference which explains the risks and how to avoid them. [h/t vtcc73]

A single breath releases 50 - 5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly. There are even fewer droplets released through nose-breathing. Importantly, due to the lack of exhalation force with a breath, viral particles from the lower respiratory areas are not expelled. Unlike sneezing and coughing which release huge amounts of viral material, the respiratory droplets released from breathing only contain low levels of virus.

~~~

The question for me is, how strategic is this seeming lack of planning.

Trump is clearly willing to sacrifice lives to restart the economy and to benefit his reelection. He has forced workers to return to meat factories where there have been a great number of infected people. At one factory over 1000 of the 2800 workers were infected.

He wants to keep the tally of infected people as low as possible so it appears that less people are sick. Thus the lack of testing. At one point he said he did not want to let a group of infected passengers off a cruise ship because the count of patients would rise. “I like the numbers being where they are,” he said.

So here is my conundrum. Of this strategic culling, how much is just for political gain and how much, if any, is, well just culling?

People talk about how Trump is similar to Hitler. Maybe, maybe not.

But one thing strikes me as odd. Hitler exterminated Jews through programs and work camps.

Is it any different to cull people via the coronavirus by forcing them to work in infected work places, by starvation because there is no safely net, by encouraging people to violate social distancing and not wear facemasks, by “opening up America again” and increasing people’s exposure to the virus?

At this point, so many things have gone awry it is hard to believe that it is only the result of simple disorganization, a lack of information.

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Some not so very minor:

Up to 6.3 million more people are predicted to develop TB between now and 2025 and 1.4 million more people are expected to die as cases go undiagnosed and untreated during lockdown. This will set back global efforts to end TB by five to eight years.

To which you might add the danger of further enabling the authoritarians and their agenda of doing away with any pretention the peasants might have to "rights".

As John Whitehead aptly puts it:

Whatever dangerous practices you allow the government to carry out now—whether it’s in the name of national security or protecting America’s borders or making America healthy again—rest assured, these same practices can and will be used against you when the government decides to set its sights on you.

The war on drugs turned out to be a war on the American people, waged with SWAT teams and militarized police.

The war on terror turned out to be a war on the American people, waged with warrantless surveillance and indefinite detention.

The war on immigration turned out to be a war on the American people, waged with roving government agents demanding “papers, please.”

This war on COVID-19 will be yet another war on the American people, waged with all of the surveillance weaponry at the government’s disposal: thermal imaging cameras, drones, contact tracing, biometric databases, etc.

Yes, there is definitely a plan...

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magiamma's picture

@Blue Republic
Just back from my daily walk.

Any way you slice it there are costs. Many of which would not be as bad had we planned ahead. New Zealand, Greece and South Korea, all, planned ahead, did testing and contact tracing as well as other things and their numbers are much lower. Had we planned we could have saved lives and much more.

The US now has slightly over to 25% of the cases in the world. A lot of that could have been avoided, but for political reasons, was not. As we said often and frequently in the Bernie campaign, it's a shitshow.

Without question, any constraints implemented now will be turned into a way to shovel more resources to the top and disenfranchise the 99%.

There is science, and the science works when applied. And applied science is better than none. But for political reasons, none of the proactive things were done, and are still not being done - no testing, no PPE.

But yes, TB and much, much more is, and will be problematic in the future due to the lockdown. Thanks for your comment. Take good care and have a good one.

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@Blue Republic

Up to 6.3 million more people are predicted to develop TB between now and 2025 and 1.4 million more people are expected to die as cases go undiagnosed and untreated during lockdown. This will set back global efforts to end TB by five to eight years.

(My boldface.)

The 6.3 new million cases is a global estimate.

In areas of Africa with relatively high levels of HIV infection TB is especially serious. The interaction between the coronavirus, HIV and TB is not known. I hope other countries can help those most affected.

According to the CDC description of the situation in the US in 2018:

Eliminating tuberculosis (TB) will require interrupting TB transmission as well as major efforts to address latent TB infection. In 2018, a total of 9,025 TB cases were reported in the United States. This represents a 0.7% decrease from 2017.

The national incidence rate was 2.8 cases per 100,000 persons (1.3% decrease from 2017).

The US should have eradicated TB in this country but there has been insufficient medical care for homeless people with TB. I am not sure how much this is still the case, but there has been a problem with TB on the Navajo reservation in the past. Even so, TB is not very common in the US. The 6.3 million cases will mostly be in other third world countries.

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Lookout's picture

Why hasn't Vitamin D been pushed? Why aren't masks required in public buildings and transportation? Why aren't there activity distinctions made between young and older folks?

A friend was complaining about young people gathering with no masks, and I asked wouldn't you if you were young and unlikely to exhibit any symptoms even if you have it. As long as they don't visit their grandparents, I don't see a problem.

I go back and forth between the notion we're over reacting to we need to do more. I'm sure we need to better educate people about COVID-19 Starting with simple things like those above.

The virus is still rare here in the rural backwaters.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

magiamma's picture

@Lookout
I am still unclear about the pre-symptomatic cases. They test for temperatures but people do not have a temp for some four or so days before they show symptoms. But I believe they are able to expose others. Same for asymptomatic people.

There is still a lot we do not know. China is now implementing many precautionary measures for people who work and shop and eat out.

Thanks for all you do. Take good care and have a good one. Hope your garden is burgeoning.

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wendy davis's picture

@Lookout

i'd point out that people in lockdown get no sun (vitamin D) and may not to be able procure, nor afford vitamin D3.

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@wendy davis
They have started admitting that masks can make a difference. Here is the latest:

Cover your mouth and nose with a cloth face cover when around others

You could spread COVID-19 to others even if you do not feel sick.
Everyone should wear a cloth face cover when they have to go out in public, for example to the grocery store or to pick up other necessities.
Cloth face coverings should not be placed on young children under age 2, anyone who has trouble breathing, or is unconscious, incapacitated or otherwise unable to remove the mask without assistance.
The cloth face cover is meant to protect other people in case you are infected.
Do NOT use a facemask meant for a healthcare worker.
Continue to keep about 6 feet between yourself and others. The cloth face cover is not a substitute for social distancing.

Washing with soap and warm water is still effective because it destroys the oily lipid membrane around the virus particles. This kind of virus cannot infect cells without the membrane intact.

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Cassiodorus's picture

Trump wants to massage the test numbers, but what's going to burn him are the death and the poverty numbers. I keep recommending Philip Mirowski's "Never Let a Serious Crisis Go To Waste":

https://libgen.is/book/index.php?md5=F74EBFD5AAA65A8ADD74A3AA8A56EEA0

What we have with neoliberal governance is infinite power combined with infinite heedlessness. The fundamental theory of neoliberal governance, when you distill the overlap between all of the various schools of what Mirowski calls the "Neoliberal Thought Collective," is that "market society" is the high point of human civilization and that strenuous government power needs to be deployed to insure that everyone conforms to "market society" regardless of the consequences.

Now, the neoliberals can say what they want -- they can say what Donald Trump or Mitch McConnell says, they can say what Joe Biden or Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer or Andrew Cuomo or Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama says, and it really doesn't affect their status as neoliberals. They can, in short, lie as they please, depending upon the demographic makeup of the audience that needs to hear said pack of lies. Neoliberals can even be in well-advertised conflicts with other neoliberals. What matters is what they do, and so in this regard the combined strength of Democratic and Republican policy is to create a coronavirus response which preserves "market society" regardless of the cost in human lives. And that's what we'll be seeing in the coming months. The disgust with Trump is a reflection of how blunt and open Trump is about shared values, not about the values themselves. For maximum effectiveness neoliberalism should be partially hidden, to keep the public confused.

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The ruling classes need an extra party to make the rest of us feel as if we participate in democracy. That's what the Democrats are for. They make the US more durable than the Soviet Union was.

magiamma's picture

@Cassiodorus
this!

the combined strength of Democratic and Republican policy is to create a coronavirus response which preserves "market society" regardless of the cost in human lives.

Thanks for another reading assignment. Lol Sigh. I need more time.

Take good care and have a good one.

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Congress repeatedly not help the american people, I can only conclude that this response to a crisis is intentional. We now have Medicine Sans Frontiers come to help the Navajo Nation. We won't do it ourselves. An Associated Press story reports:

The Navajo Nation apparently is being hit very hard.

If the Navajo Nation were its own state, it would have the highest per capita rate of confirmed positive coronavirus cases in the country, behind only New York. In the states it spans, the number of cases and deaths among people who are Native American, on and off the reservations, is disproportionately high.

h/t JS

Who else is being hit hard and why can't we at least attempt to help stop the spread. Things like upgrading infrastructure with basic running water systems would go a long way towards helping. How can you stay infection-free without access to a working plumbing system?

Someone here recently wrote that we have ceded our power to govern ourselves to others. Except we gave that power to people who have no interest in governing for the benefit of the people. Thats my two cents.

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@randtntx
It should not only be illegal to shut off water during this crisis, but service should be restarted for people who have already been shut off. This needs to be enforced nationally. It would be reasonable to provide financial support to communities specifically for this purpose.

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@ScienceTeacher I think I can safely say that my grandfather, who was born in the early 1900's would be very surprised and disturbed to learn that his fabulous country, the U.S., is achieving third-world status. He was a very conservative and patriotic man who thought this country was the best and was on course to only get better. He was a good person and I had a great deal of respect for him. I think he would be heartbroken now by the state of this country.

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@randtntx
Quite a few of my family members have been citizen soldiers. They did not sacrifice so that rich people could get richer by cutting off water to young mothers and their little children during an epidemic.

My grandparents worked hard to build this country to be a better place for everyone. My father served in Korea and then used the GI bill to make a better life for our family. There were decent jobs and affordable housing. Rich people paid their fair share of taxes on the wealth they got from efforts of many people who had less.

My family raised me to respect elders. It is important to try to make the last days as dignified as possible. It is important to have a chance to say goodby. People who work in nursing homes need decent pay and adequate amounts of gowns, gloves and masks. There is no excuse for putting infected people into a nursing home with vulnerable elders.

I thought I had become cynical about the people governing this country, but the last few months they have been so openly callous it is impossible for me to even process their inhumanity to others.

Our grandparents legacy should not be destroyed.

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Lily O Lady's picture

@ScienceTeacher

was deemed necessary to allocate that scarce resource to areas around the Navajo, while requiring them to travel many miles to fill a few jerrycans for the week. The genocide continues.

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

magiamma's picture

@randtntx
Yes, I agree, it is intentional. And then there is the climate crisis on top of this and no one is even paying attention really. So many things falling through the cracks. It does not bode well.

Maybe Guy McPherson is right. Hope not.

In the most extreme scenarios (with rapid increases in air quality) their results suggest the hottest day of the year may be up to 4C hotter by 2050, with around one third of that increase due to cleaner skies.

Wilcox’s latest research also predicts that reductions in Asian air pollution will also result in more intense tropical monsoon rains, driven by a greater contrast in temperature between oceans and land.

If the drop in air pollution is sustained for long enough then it might be possible to see its impact on climate.

Thanks for all your thoughts. Take good care and have a good one.

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It seems to me that unless summer weather naturally dampens the virus spread for the season, the reopening is going to end badly. We've got a much larger reservoir of COVID19 infections than we did before the shutdowns started in mid March so if we return to social contact similar to that period the virus spread will be much larger. We haven't ramped up our infrastructure appreciably since mid-March so we'll quickly run into the same problems of shortages in medical supplies, facilities and personnel—and probably food, cleaning supplies and toilet paper!

Another possibility is that we'll practice just enough social distancing to not really let the virus die out and merely shift the natural selection in favor of a more infectious strain although it could also shift the selection to also favor of a strain that's less virulent, too—I guess we'll end up rolling the dice and hope it doesn't come up craps like it did in the fall of 1918.

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magiamma's picture

@MinuteMan
The states the have reopened are already experiencing at rise in cases. And it's only started and it's summer. As the professor in my link above says, "if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover."

I am not seeing a lot of infrastructure ramping up. Social distancing and sheltering in place are working in CA. The places here with the most cases are places where the migrant farm workers live. Què sorpresa.

Take good care and have a good one.

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enhydra lutris's picture

Of this strategic culling, how much is just for political gain and how much, if any, is, well just culling?

AND

At this point, so many things have gone awry it is hard to believe that it is only the result of simple disorganization, a lack of information.

OK, think of the stereotypical pack of hyenas; they band up and work together to a certain extent to achieve certain goals, but otherwise are in it for themselves. "Hey, we've got the kill, this is a chance to get in and get ours." In this case, they have some common goals and some disparate goals and they are far from strictly rational or logical. They are generally psychotic and sociopathic and unable to tell themselves the truth about many things. Thus, Trump's behavior is in many ways more likely to reduce his base and decrease his re-election chances unless he can pull off something of an economic mini-boom or something which can be effectively propagandized as such before the election rolls around. But he also has targets to punish, the nasty press, for example. He and his minions are operating out of drives for self-aggrandizement and self-enrichment while also trying to enhance and extend their ideological goals, but they have a flawed ideology and working towrd those targets undermines everything else they might think that they are trying to do.

I sort of have to rush this morning, but if they were to actually try to help the people they would certainly fuck it up royally because their thinking is based on whole great heaps of wrong premises and even if they applied sound logic to them the result would be chaotic. Beyond that, one primary false premise is that what will be best for the people is for them to continue in power and to promote their ideology and their ideologically driven goals.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

magiamma's picture

@enhydra lutris
right you are. Take good care and have a good one

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mhagle's picture

I posted this poem at the end of Anja's OT on Tuesday evening, so I doubt many saw it. It has boosted my spirits considerably. Smile

The Little Duck by Donald Babcock

Now we're ready to look at something pretty special.
It is a duck,
riding the ocean a hundred feet beyond the surf.
No it isn't a gull.
A gull always has a raucous touch about her.
This is some sort of duck,
and she cuddles in the swells.

She isn't cold,
and she is thinking things over.
There is a big heaving in the Atlantic,
and she is a part of it.

She looks a bit like a mandarin,
or the Lord Buddha meditating under the Bo tree.

But she has hardly enough above the eyes
to be a philosopher.
She has poise, however,
which is what philosophers must have.

She can rest while the Atlantic heaves,
because she rests in the Atlantic.

Probably she doesn't know how large the ocean is.
And neither do you.
But she realizes it.

And what does she do, I ask you?
She sits down in it!
She reposes in the immediate as if it were infinity
– which it is.
She has made herself a part of the boundless
by easing herself into just where it touches her.

I like the duck.
She doesn't know much,
but she's got religion.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

QMS's picture

@mhagle
becoming a part of the boundless
by easing into just where it touches

thanks

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question everything

enhydra lutris's picture

@mhagle

cold mountain streams and then clamber out and hike back to ride them down again. Much the same, your poem invokes those images and memories. I won't invoke "surfin' bird".

be well and have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

magiamma's picture

@mhagle
Beautiful poem. Sweet.

Thanks for posting it. Take good care and have a good one.

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domestic violence is up, child abuse us up, alcohol (and therefore alcoholism) is up, tobacco use is up.
We were going to have to learn how to live without jobs, but not this way. This is making the transition worse. And allowing a "return to normalcy" instills a fear of the transition (the pain always comes first) teaching people to fear the end of wage slavery and wish the return of consumerism.

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On to Biden since 1973

magiamma's picture

@doh1304
All those things, but why do we have to return to consumerism. Oh, right, we need to support the ptb. Dayum.

Take good care and have a good one.

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wendy davis's picture

@doh1304

lockdown deaths due to the inability to get cancer treatments, kidney dialysis, and other vital medical help? not to mention opioid deaths, likely suicides, and so on.

as to the Navajo (Dineh), it's likely hitting them hard for several reasons: long-term exposure to coal smoke, uranium mine dust, as well as the EPA having decided to 'plug' the Gold King uranium mine above durango, co in 2015. of course the temporary dam burst, and tons of yellow uranium and acid water poured down the animas river to...you got: the navajo reservation. diabetes may also be a large contributing factor.

to magiama: culling? perhaps, but at the very least: sociopathically cavalier on both the Red and Blue Care2 plans to ameliorate lockdown for the 90%, as they feed the banks, major corporations (with no oversight). yes: it's hell. looks like the next crap one won't even be voted on (if ever, according to mitch mcConnell, until june), although pelosi's House one is crap with lipstick on it.

i'd read an article by NY nurses on the the 'aerosolization' of the virus that seems a bit different that what you've brought, but it's of small important, and would take a bit of work to find it again. but even at the end of it all, they said: 'we'll still wear masks'.

best to everyone.

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smiley7's picture

Fears are grounded. Numbers of new covid cases shooting up in NC after a period of average stability.. Science informs, the worst is yet to come with increased openings.

Jim Clyburn told NBC that the leadership was concerned about money when defending the latest bullshit hero bill and why they didn't include modest payments directly to the people of $2,000/month. Say what Mr. Clyburn, money? Their weak tea bill pours more money into their previously failed attempts, states reneging on gig worker applications and many can't get through to file anyways, plus states race to return to work, so UI is not a working vehicle.

Concerns about money when the Fed chair said the opposite, make a huge investment now to help insure a better recovery. Besides, trillions going out the back door of the Fed to banks and corporations, purchasing junk bonds included. My bet, most corporations will file bankruptcy sooner or later and the Fed loses all. But money matters more than people. So, we can, unfortunately, as usual, expect no help from the democratic leadership.

Six months in and 'No' good logical national or global plans exist to counter the virus, streamline health delivery or for preventing the greatest depression of all. I include a link to a James K. Galbraith piece; he's not his dad, and this is not his best writing, but, he does raise good issues not under consideration by TBTB.

We need a radically different model to tackle the COVID-19 crisis | By James K. Galbraith
12/05/2020

Two weeks ago week the US death toll from Covid-19 exceeded that of US soldiers in Vietnam, 1955-1974. On May 1 the one-day toll reached a new high, greater than that in New York City on September 11, 2001. Meanwhile economic output has collapsed and over thirty million Americans had filed unemployment claims as of April 30, 2020. On the public health front, testing remains inadequate, contact tracing non-existent, treatment options appear stalled and millions remain uninsured. The federal bailouts have worked well in one way only: to spur a modest revival of stocks and to forestall massive defaults on bonds.

The failures of the public health system border on sabotage. Test kits were available from the WHO in January; the US elected not to use them. The first production of tests from the CDC was botched. Testing was deliberately limited as community transmission grew, so that the virus escaped from early containment that might have been possible. Lockdowns and quarantines came late, were poorly organized and weakly enforced. Supplies of PPE were not allocated to hospitals and health care providers according to need; the Defense Production Act was not deployed in timely and effective manner to ramp up home production; no effective federal system to manage international medical supply chains exists to this day. While some firms have no doubt done their best, reports of profiteering and scams are rampant.

The push to reopen the economy is a further mark of failure. As food supply workers were not properly protected, unacceptable levels of sickness and workplace contamination have occurred, notably in meat. Food banks are in crisis, while milk, eggs and other perishables are wasted. State governments facing fiscal catastrophe press businesses to reopen on terms that cannot be profitable, because capacity is constrained for health reasons. The openings are calculated to force workers off of unemployment insurance, which can be revoked if they decline to return to risky jobs. Many smaller businesses are deciding not to reopen; they will face bankruptcy instead and disappear. Although evictions and foreclosures are technically deferred, many landlords have ignored this and in any event rent, mortgages, utility bills and other debts continue to accrue.http://www.defenddemocracy.press/we-need-a-radically-different-model-to-...

I worry, magi, about our children's future and what the crazy religious people may force politicians into. I do fully expect the rich and powerful fascists to fuel that flame and when the mortgages fail and businesses go down including property values, they will sweep in and purchase it all for a dime as they have numerous times before in our modern history.

Must admit, i get a furious feeling when seeing folks not wearing masks in public.

Important to take extra health precautions, horde cash, if you have any, and stay hunkered down, imo; sadly.

PS: sure did enjoy the artwork, Saturday.

edit for sp

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magiamma's picture

@smiley7
Who woulda thunk it could get this bad. And no doubt worse to come. Thanks for your Saturday respite from the madness. And thanks for the Galbraith link. Bela's work is amazing and drawing with her is the best. Good thoughts to you. Take care and have a good one.

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smiley7's picture

@magiamma

magenta

in softness.

Happy we draw an occasional sentence together.

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magiamma's picture

@smiley7
Is one of her favorite things to say when we are drawing.

Just lines, magi

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