Open Thread Friday 3-13-2020
Welcome and good day. It has been a fast few weeks. I hope you and yours are well and have had time to make some preparations for staying in place if necessary. The necessary part has become more real as we have seen how fast this virus can move in our communities. This is not an abstract event in other countries seen on TV or our web devices.
Dr. Amy Acton, Director of Ohio Department of Health, discussing community spread in Ohio. Do the math for your local area.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUyGfDJ76g&feature=youtu.be]
Community spread is happening now in Oregon. Spoke to my 70+ neighbor yesterday afternoon. Asked if he and his wife had began restricting their activities. "Yes they had only been to the rodeo in Winnemucca, Nevada and a moderate size event at the local Moose lodge. The virus thing is being overblown. He is keeping up with information on Fox." Not sure if he has changed his mind after the Trump's national address and our Governor cancelling all private and public gatherings of greater than 250 persons.
Our next step is to push out into the future as far as possible being infected with the coronavirus. If infected minimize the severity, seek appropriate care if necessary and prevent spreading the infection. The curve needs to be flattened to minimize overloading the capacity of our healthcare system. It looks like it is on us as individuals, communities and states. The federal government is more worried about optics to prevent financial impacts, score political points and inflicting pain on any enemy.
(tip of the hat to CB for the images)
If exposed active coronavirus infection signs and symptoms may occur as quick as within 2 days of exposure. China is reporting incubation period could be as long as 24 days. CDC site is stating 14 days based on the history of the MERS-CoV viruses.
To learn how to track signs and symptoms for infections conditions watch the video by Dr Campbell. This methodology is the same for high blood pressure, diabetes or coronovirus. Which signs and symptoms to monitor for specific conditions, progressions and response to treatments will change slightly. Ideally you will be receiving guidance from your health professionals on what to monitor and how to interpret the data.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUir2Q1uxxs]
Information has been coming from China.
Research from the Chinese Center for Disease Control suggests that about 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. About 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill.
Here's how symptoms progress among typical patients:
Day 1: Patients run a fever. They may also experience fatigue, muscle pain, and a dry cough. A small minority may have had diarrhea or nausea one to two days before.
Day 5: Patients may have difficulty breathing — especially if they are older or have a preexisting health condition.
Day 7: This is how long it takes, on average, before patients are admitted to a hospital, according to the Wuhan University study.
Day 8: At this point, patients with severe cases (15%, according to the Chinese CDC) develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, an illness that occurs when fluid builds up the lungs. ARDS is often fatal.
Day 10: If patients have worsening symptoms, this is the time in the disease's progression when they're most likely to be admitted to the ICU. These patients probably have more abdominal pain and appetite loss than patients with milder cases. Only a small fraction die: The current fatality rate hovers at about 2%.
Day 17: On average, people who recover from the virus are discharged from the hospital after 2 1/2 weeks.
Medication information sources
Information of OTC (over the counter) Vitamin D dosages and who should not take unless prescribed.
There is concern some medication supplies may be interrupted. It is important to be aware if you are taking a medication that is known to cause withdrawal symptoms with abrupt discontinuation. Try to get and keep an extra a 30 to 90 day supply on hand. not always possible, but does decrease the likelihood of disruptions in treatment.
Comments
Good morning, soe ~~
When we hear the saying that Americans are rugged individuals, what comes to mind? That we have to fend for ourselves in a pandemic? Certainly! Our government is not here to make our lives better, easier, nada. If we lose our job over this, oh well. If we lose our house over this, oh well. If we lose our life over this, one less social security payment. It's how they think.
We are hunkering down. I will go into work today to wrap things up and ensure I have everything in line to work from home next week. New Mexico closed public schools for the next three weeks. Although the university didn't close, spring break is next week and I am allowed to work remotely. Living rurally helps us minimize contact with others and I have enough food for a year (dried beans and rice keep forever!).
I feel great that I'm part of c99 because there is nothing but reliable information here. We help each other so much.
Everyone have a great Friday and weekend!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Hunkering down myself through the summer
Which was my original plan for 2020. Want to catch up on some property maintenance. Been running to many directions the past few years, but those projects are now behind me.
At other times in my life it would have been necessary to keep going out everyday into the public realm and have direct people contact. I really worry about those who have jobs that require a physical presence. Also, grateful they are still willing to go to work.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Lack of testing resources and crisis capitalism in the US
The test that has been approved by WHO for a few months is not used in the US. That's due to Lab Corp and a few other players in health care capturing the CDC and forcing development of new tests in order to make money off this crisis. There are (IMO) a very large amount of non-diagnosed cases out there. That is going to fuel the spread of this virus in the US enough to make the situation in Italy look like a small time issue. Remember this and what they did with testing back in January when someone you know becomes a casualty!
Congress is just starting to figure out now what went wrong
with testing in the US.
The administration won't admit to what they have done by allowing profits over people to run the testing responce link to article here
Another source condeming Rump administration testing protocols
link to Obama's Ebola Czar explaning this issue
From the article where there is a video of the interview as well.
My brother-in-law was refused a test
and he is a flight attendant who had just returned from London (Wednesday) felt bad and they refused him a test - said he has mild flu. FUCK!!!
A co-worker went to Seattle and returned ill. She was refused a test and stayed home two weeks. She still feels bad and they still refuse to test her! FUCK!!!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
I have three family members with compromised immune systems.
Current thinking is that 60-80% of the populations in countries who have progressed to community acquired status will become infected, a small percentage of which (2%+/-?) will require hospitalization. If these patients arrive in a cluster hospitals will quickly be overwhelmed.
This is why self quarantine, avoiding crowds and social distancing are so important at this point. These precautions slow the rapid growth curve of infected, spreading them out over a longer period of time and lowering the peak numbers of patients who will need hospitals. Once the hospitals fill up, triaging and difficult medical decisions will follow, and the mortality percentage will rise among those with acute symptoms.
Stay home if possible. Do not travel. Minimize in person socialization. Wash hands every time before you eat or touch your face. These are the little things we all can do that will help save lives.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
Times like this sure open our eyes,
. We have to make wise decisions. I'm a septuagenarian and have been on immunosuppressant drugs for years to treat an unpleasant little autoimmune disease, Rheumatoid Arthritis. Yesterday my rheumatologist said I can stop taking methotrexate, which I self-inject once a week, and continue on a very low dose of prednisone and another DMARD drug that he wants me to stay on for now. Hope this will be enough to restore some of my once-high immunity. If I get sick, I can stop the rest of the immunosuppressants and probably take more pain meds. ): Fortunately I'm retired and enjoy being home. Might look into having groceries delivered.
At present, what I really want to do is have my will turned into a trust fund so I can leave my meager life savings to those whose truth-telling has given me hope for the future of this country and the world. These would be, essentially, those I'm currently supporting via Patreon and Paypal. Given various handicaps, it's all I'm able to do anymore. Now to find a decent attorney and get it done.
I too am grateful we have webforums like this, and also quite a few people out in the world who care about their fellow human beings and all the other creatures with whom we share this beautiful planet and who have opened their eyes enough to understand the kinds of changes we need to make.
We cannot ever, ever lose hope.
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
hope you stay together
and alive. For a decent spell.
We have not much, but what we have
we share. Together and strong.
Tough choices, but it is a plan
Fortunate you have a doctor that is working with you.
Thank you for adding your voice to the conversation today.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Good morning
Here's Dr John Campbell's update today...(24 min)
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI]
He agrees with jbob above, and there are 10 to 20 times the number of cases being reported.
Wishing you all good health! Eat well and take care.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
The US might have an even higher
multiplier due to tiny amount of actual testing done in the US compared to population and area of country. I fear the country is going to follow the yellow curve. Trumps "Made in USA" attitude of dealing with COVID-19 will also pertain to the thousands of unnecessary deaths that will occur.
it may well be worse...
in part because we are in such poor health as a nation...obese, rampant diabetes and hypertension, and sedentary.
Don't forget to get out in the sun. UV is a pretty good virus killer...
Companies a trying to cash in with UV lights but the sun is the best.
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20180212/can-uv-light-be-used-to...
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
ICU beds are limited, and a week in the hospital is a long time.
This points to the importance of flattening the rate of infection. Most hospitals have relatively few ICU beds. Once those beds are fully occupied, new patients may not have access to appropriate care, and mortality rates will rise as a result.
Social distancing, quarantines and limiting travel are effective tools to delay infection for those who can isolate themselves in this way. This will not necessarily reduce the total number of people who will become infected, but it will distribute the relatively small number of people who will require hospitalization over a longer period of time. This will help the hospitals provide appropriate care to more of those suffering from acute symptoms.
The mortality rate in Italy spiked when the hospitals were overwhelmed. We need to do everything we can to help flatten the rate of infection so we don’t experience a similar fate.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
How many will go bankrupt after a stay in the ICU ?
It costs a lot of money for treatment like this in the US. Just saying!
many will go bankrupt, simple math - an example
son gets #500,00 per month less than before. His employer did cut the hours for his employees, because he can't pay for payroll anymore due to less income of the business (tourism related somewhat). With 500.00 dollars less son has to pays 60 percent of his pay to his part (50 percent) of his and his girlfriends rent (being 1600 dollars for a one bedroom flat). Before the payroll cut, he paid 40% of his payroll for rent. If girlfriend loses hours, both can't pay for their rent anymore.
Girlfriend of son still has work fulltime, but is sick since four weeks and has all the symptoms that fit the Corona virus infections. She finally accepted to go to the emergency room and is told, they can't test her, because test kits are not available.
Father of the girlfriend, whose company enforced his early retirement due to medical and psychological problems, has no payroll income anymore. He cashed in his 401 K to pay off the remainder of his house' mortgange (located on the mainland's East coast). The income from cashing in his 401k has been taxed.
Mother of the girlfriend still works fulltime, but has cancer and her treatment makes her extremely weak. She should not work fulltime anymore and has literally sent her husband, girlfriends father, away from PA to HI, to both of the kids, to take care of the father.
But because of father's additional income through cashing in the 401 K, the family income increased to a point that her premiums for her health insurcance increased to 1200 dollar per month. As there is no more payroll income from the husband comeing in, they can't pay their health insurance premiums anymore.
As such reported by my son.
How much more fucked up can it get? People will despair and have unforeseen psychological reactions to this shit.
I can't even know, if what I hear is correct or not, so convoluted and intertwined it all is.
And the father is still in support of Trump. Understand someone Americans' thinking?
Americans, do you understand yourselves?
Where is the solution?
https://www.euronews.com/live
Good morning, SoE,
As always, thank you for the informative OT.
Mayo Clinic develops drive-thru testing site all on their own:
Hope this effort can be replicated.
Behind the eight-ball in so many ways ...
"Hope this effort can be replicated."
Edit: Upon reflection it appears this was meant to be snark on your part. Mea culpa.
Someone needs to inform these people that it was - over two weeks ago and is now in widespread use in China, Korea and Japan.
all I want to know where a test kit can be bought
I don't find a place where it can be ordered.
https://www.euronews.com/live
The kits are only sold to labs
who have been trained and authorized to conduct the actual test. Hospitals/clinics also have to be trained how to get the samples from patients. They then send them to the labs for testing.
China and Korea are now performing drive-through testing with results within 6-24 hours. But there is a caveat - if you test positive and don't come in for further testing, they will have you arrested and brought in forcibly. They have fines/jail terms for non-compliant people.
One confirmed in Knoxville
So, yesterday they found one person in Knoxville that tested positive for the virus. Where there's one, there's more. Knox county schools are closed today; University of Tennessee is moving all classes online after the spring break - effective March 23 until at least April 3; UT also cancelled "all non-athletic university events between March 16 and April 5, which involve gatherings of 50 or more people"; the NICU at Children's hospital in Knoxville is now closed to all visitors except moms and dads.
After my daughter comes by today to pick up a few things, she's going to quarantine herself in her daughter's NICU room.
I just want to go to sleep and wake up sometime in mid-April. I'm not sick, just depressed.
Same here.
I'm still on normal time it seems, it's so hard to get up at a decent hour. 9-9:30 is my internal clock for getting up.
One case reported in Stearns county so far. Still no word on the event on the 28th, but our tabletop game group tomorrow has been cancelled, and my great-uncle's funeral has been postponed.
They moved my dad to a bigger hospital; they are going to test him, but the diagnosis now is aspiration pneumonia, meaning he inhaled a bit of food and this all came on very suddenly late last week. Some idiot at the care center dropped his dentures and broke them (again) so he was eating without them. So much incompetent buffoonery. SMDH Unlikely for it to end up being COVID-19 but there's a chance he was exposed. They still aren't allowing visitors though.
This shit is bananas.
Here in the Chicago burbs
Food/wares is flying off the local grocery store shelves, many shelves are empty.
EDIT: Funny though the panic didn't set in until tRump spoke on the boobtube, how
fitting for him
As for testing my daughter has 2 friends who went to the Doc one had a dry cough the
other just felt flu like, in neither case were they tested for Covid19. One was told
to self quarentine which not everyone is capable of, the other I don't have the info
of what was said.
Government hasn't given any guidance as far as I know with tptb all they care about
is the stock markit price going higher and how few the number of people it is that are
sick.
karma
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
Good morning, friends.
The county judge and I have been trying to make plans to attend a mandatory continuing legal education class that takes place in May. It is being held at the top rated resort on the entire Texas coast.
It would have been a blast to have an argument with him about which bar is best!
However, I received an alert from the State Bar that all cle events were switching to online video presentations for now.
It is impossible to say what things will be like in May.
It will not be the first time I was disappointed, nor will it be the last.
I was due to fly out to Sicily for a week on the 19th. That trip got cancelled.
This virus has already impacted people's lives in so many ways.
Just the idea of going to work while sick is the very picture of a failed state, a sick society.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Don't Expect Too Much
Trump administration blocks states from using Medicaid to respond to coronavirus crisis. Warning link will open in new window.
WASHINGTON — Despite mounting pleas from California and other states, the Trump administration isn’t allowing states to use Medicaid more freely to respond to the coronavirus crisis by expanding medical services.
Trump wants you to die, but is (for unknown reasons) not simply stating this Reality.
RIP
Thanks. And I have to second that tag attribute! /nt
Rules to live by: "Don't Expect Too Much". Thanks.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
It's not Trump. It's the neocon, globalist oligarchy
sometimes called the deep state. They think big and plan far ahead. Depopulation has long been one of their intermediate goals, along with the subjugation of the Middle East and Russia, on the way to a New World Order. They didn't want Trump; they wanted Clinton whom they could count on to follow orders, as did Obama and the Bushes. Chrystia Freeland, currently the Deputy Prime Minister of Canada, had some thoughts on the matter back in 2012. http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2012/06/21/the-three-question...
Trump came into office seeking a return to nationalism along with a dash of populism and strong resistance to interventionist wars (what Tulsi calls regime-change wars). I never had the impression that Trump hated the common folk. But since then, he has succumbed to many neocon globalist pressures, and they still don't like him. They'd be quite happy with Biden. But they sure as hell don't want Bernie.
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
Many deaths from COVID-19 have
been under reported.
Without complete testing whether a person is asymptomatic, with mild symptoms, with severe symptoms or has died with related symptoms, we will never know the true extent of COVID-19 in the country. Don't forget that 20,000 to 30,000 people die of the "normal" flu every year. This fact could readily be used to cover-up failures within the current system - until the situation gets completely out of hand and the health system breaks down completely and all hell breaks loose.
The question to be asked - why is the US government re-engineering the wheel instead of taking advice from the WHO and taking advantage of the dozens of existing tests that had been developed by China and other nations by the second and third week of January. These test are now being pumped out and used by the millions each week in these countries.
These Asian nations have taken this bull by the horns and have managed to get it corralled. They pulled all the stops in putting their money down to protect their peoples - wide spread FREE testing with financially supported quarantining. They have managed to do this despite having a much lower per capita GDP and less 'refined' health care systems. I'll even bet they eventually get their economies back on track quicker then the US.
What the fuck is wrong with DC? Their priorities are completely skewed against the ordinary people that make up 99% of the population. And this includes the fuckers on BOTH sides of the House with few exceptions.
Maybe they would come to their senses if they and their families get sick and die from COVID-19 just like we proles are going to.
Should we send some "gift" blankets to them?
Two problems with DC. One is that the
anti-science evangelical Christian nut balls are mucking things up. The other problem is that the whole shootin’ match is run of by and for the 1% whose lives are so far removed from ours that they barely consider us human if that.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
That's fine
I don't consider them to be human at all.
This one isn't a Both Sides
issue -- it's been Trump and the go-along Rs in Congress who have failed the leadership test so far. Dems, while never perfect, at least have been the ones trying to get more testing and at no charge to people, regardless of insurance situation. Ds have also been the ones who in the House passed a bill mandating one week of employer paid sick leave and two weeks if testing positive for the virus. This was rejected in the R senate by Mitch and the Boys..
This issue has clearly been handled in a blatantly political, rather than scientific/health manner by the Trump régime. He doesn't care if more of the plebes die from his negligent attitude so long as the stock market recovers and his polls don't take a major hit. This is a far worse Republican president (deliberate) mismanagement of a crisis than Shrub and Katrina.
(btw, your last sentence -- uh, no ...)
Thanks for clarification
I'm so pissed off at the behavior of the entire pack I no longer follow them in detail. I just notice their droppings now and again. The smell is terrible.
Dems have been doing their usual virtue signaling
passing bills in the House that they KNOW will die in the Senate. They don't care about you one whit more than the Repubs do - they just pretend to.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
I can't claim to be a
mind reader, esp about an entire party of hundreds of minds. I do know that if the Ds sat on their hands and did nothing by way of remedial legislation, folks on the left would have used their silence to claim just as you have asserted.
Damned if they do, damned if they don't
I guess bitcoin wasn't a safe-haven after all
gold is looking good...
And I suspect it will continue to gain.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Until
the idiots figure out its nutritional value is nil.
RIP
That's the silliest argument
"You can't eat gold".
Well you can't eat paper money either, or your car, or a tree. I guess everything that you can't eat is worthless then.
So I guess that means that we should use Grandma's biscuits for money instead.
I really don't know why people keep repeating this silly statement.
Is it certain that you can sell your gold at banks? Or
is it not certain that banks just close and will not pay out money from your savings accounts? Hasn't that happen in the past?
Just asking.
https://www.euronews.com/live
The way to think of it
Can you imagine anyone in your life saying "No, I don't want any gold. You can't make me take it".
Of course not. That would be insane.
The second thing is, what do banks store in their vaults?
They store a number of things, but one of those things is gold.
Banks don't store anything in their vaults except money. And central banks have been buying gold for at least a decade now.
I just remember that German folks after wwII and wwI
(added stuff) (damn the spell checker)
They dug their silverware and precious gold jewelry items in their gardens to hide them from thieves. They wouldn't have gotten cash from the banks trying to sell their silver and gold to the bank, nor would the cash having been worth anything. It would barely buy them bread and butter. The inflation was going to the roof. Banks have refused to pay out all the cash to their customers, which those had in the banks on their savings accounts.
I am old and might mix up some memories I had about those things my parents and grandparents talked about. But it definitely happened. Some memories from the war times - post war times of both wwI and wwII - are still known to some of us and in addition there are plenty of quite decent documentaries in our (German) TV media broadcasted about those issues nowadays.
Sorry for have gotten a bit on your nerves. Thank God, we are not in such crisis situation today, but some people think about them. Peace.
PS. My uncle on the father's side went trading anything that could be eaten and found on farm land against coffee for my grandmother. They had no cash for anything. People needed to eat and to heat the places where they slept. My mother slept in a dog hut on a farm and she was heading West to reach US occupied areas in Germany. A black US soldier was helping my mother with two kids (toddler and baby) to cross the river 'Elbe' to reach the other side. My other aunt had a 120 days ordeal walking from one camp to the next with three kids through nowadays Eastern European countries. Gold and silver in the back pack helped may be to trade them for food on the black market but certainly not for getting cash from anybody. She had lost a furniture factory of her husband, who got killed and nobody knows where, but somewhere in Russia. She walked from a city bordering Poland. So all you got was black market trading to get food. Her eldest daughter (now over eighty years old) remembers quite well their ordeal. She was nine at that time.
And I know that folks who have nothing to eat and not a warm, dry place to sleep, can get very creative to stay alive. okay, got a bit emotional. Sorry.
https://www.euronews.com/live
You didn't get on my nerves
That was a very thoughtful response. thank you
China was a major bit miner in the world.
Interesting look into the internals of bit mining:
China's pending bitcoin "mining catastrophe"
I have a next door neighbor who spends hours trading bit coins every day. I haven't spoken to her in a few months to find out how she has made out. She really wanted to get me involved - write some software for her but my skills are much too dated. My programming heyday was when computers were steam powered and we had to arrange the bits and bytes by hand. Bummer getting old and decrepit.
I once told
someone about the first publicly available Burr-Brown Op Amp I played with, and they didn't believe a word I said. Bonus short story: one of my classmates managed to touch one of the logic pins with a live 110 wire. Our professor went ballistic.
RIP
Good morning soe, thanks. Informative and factual, and the
more information we get and the more often it is repeated the better. I dunno, but I suspect that a lot of us here on c99 are among the more at risk group, which makes this all the more timely and important. As usual, our profit based medicine approach is exacerbating the problem, meaning that we as individuals must take it upon ourselves to try to minimize our risk of infection, recognize any infection that occurs, and respond and treat it pretty much on our own without any meaningful professional assistance.
I personally have pretty damn good "insurance", and a pretty damn good care provider, but, still, the current situation appears to be one in which their role will pretty much be constrained to an emergency response role. They cannot possibly test a significant percentage of their customers, or even the at risk portion thereof, and beyond ICU care of acute cases, can't do anything other than give advice to stay home, rest, sleep, eat healthy, stay hydrated and all that.
Thanks again for helping to maintain at least a partial focus on this so that we gravitate to intelligent and information based behaviors.
have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Correct
Good health insurance only means the ability to pay whatever when the supply is available. Crap health insurance only works when the supply has excess capacity and is willing to accept low reimbursement and the individual gets stuck with a huge co-pay, as if they chose crap insurance when they could have afforded high priced insurance.
Today I saw
an interesting spreadsheet:
Edit: I found this "infection rate info" in the wild, so I have no way to judge it's validity or applicability. But, it is a pretty display.
RIP
Nice chart. Shows the most important data visually
Exponential growth is hard to fully understand intuitively.
The WHO has come up with it's own website to track world pandemic of COVID-19. It currently shows US at 1264 at this time. This number is going to jump when widespread comprehensive testing is finally done - maybe in a few weeks?
Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Situation
Pick a positive integer, any positive integer square it, then
square the result, and keep repeating, IN YOUR HEAD. See how long you can keep it up, that is one measure of its growth ;-). Then, for grins, use pencil and paper or spreadsheet and simply watch the number of digits in the answer. A few times around the block and you will find that you have developed a very intuitive understanding of and reaction to the idea of what an exponential curve is.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
It was not for me.
Mathematics is one of my fortes.
I wrote a lot of software in the mid 70's (before CAD CAM software was available) to calculate intercepts of geometric shapes such as cones, tubes and planes with one another, square-to-rounds and transitions to produce programs for CNC plasma/laser fabricators to cut the parts from flat sheet stock.
A few years later I got involved with the machining department. Over a period of 15 years, I completely destroyed the high paying jobs of about 200 people in a company that employed 450. But, to my credit, I did create 20 new ones at the same time.
Old memories of times long gone by.......
Do have a link for it?
I just stole the graph from:
https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fhykic/oc_this_chart_c...
Here's graphs showing how China handled the crisis
The following is why the WHO kept repeating, "Follow China's lead to control this viral outbreak". At it's peak, China was handling almost 60,000 cases. The entire country went on a literal war footing and put ALL it's resources, especially their citizens, to fight it and they won.
Chinese proverb that needs to be heeded: "If we do not change our direction we are likely to end up where we are headed for."
Sounds more like Yogi Berra
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Maybe Yogi was part Chinese?
My husband used to say that his baby brother
was Chinese since one in every three children born was Chinese and his brother was his parents’ third child.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
I think I'm turning chinese me own self or
Numberphiles only please:
First a funny sociological comment: Some bosses that formerly insisted that office duties could only be properly accomplished at the office have suddenly had an epiphany and suggest just maybe it is okay to perform some office duties not at the office. "funny" no "hysterical" is a better word.
In some industries, shops, places of business, et cetera the "Boss That Be" could tap into her/his/its private swimming pool of money to pay her/his/its employees a living income for the duration of this undeclaredThanks Trump emergency and this action would not effect her/his/its "bottom" line in any significant way.
Don't believe me, Do The Math.
RIP
It is from
Fox News, reporting that one of Trump's favorite dictators, Bolsonaro, has tested positive for C-19.
How long will Trump continue to set a bad, even dangerous example to others, by not getting tested?
Maybe Trump will change the protocol for testing
From his hospital bed?
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
I'll bet that the Trumpeter is getting tested
2 times a day.
An aside to studentofearth
As I am sure (I hope) you know: Not all of us septuagenarians are as dense as your neighbor.
A public service announcement from the Bear Creek Valley.
RIP
Mentioned his age since it placed him in the high risk
for complications with coronavirus. For he and his wife it had been a slow week of social interaction.
If one is not familiar with the speed infections can spread through a population it is easy to be reassured by the media and official government narrative. Even the public announcements the last couple of days by Trump had mixed messages of no worry and maybe some concern.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.
Out on the front lines
The day after Trump's speech, we had a 198% spike in sales yesterday with people buying anything they could. Curious what that might look like in terms of what we had to do?
P.S. We also suspended the complimentary coffee service and took the entire Demo Station away until further notice.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Thanks for the photos -
trying to keep up with the panic shoppers must be exhausting for you and your co-workers. Please take care to get as much sleep and rest because those thoughtless shoppers are increasing the risk to you and your co-workers.
Looks like my TJs
here in Santa Mira, from which I have just returned. Lots of empty/greatly diminished shelves of basics. Lots of shoppers -- a line of cars out into the street leading into the parking lot.
Stupid me: I forgot to even look for the 2 items I wanted -- crackers and energy bars.
Smart me: I found plenty of raw, organic local-produced honey. It's a great survival food -- ounce for ounce probably the best thing nature produces in terms of nutrients. Also doubles as an antibacterial for wounds, so I hear. Other types of honey were cleaned out. People apparently aren't aware that local-produced raw honey is the best. It helps build up the immune system, which is so important today.
As for panic, I had a nice chat in the check out line with a few other customers, making light of the situation. I got in a good rec for an End of the World movie to a nice-looking woman (On the Beach, which she wasn't aware of), and made yuks about asking the Trader if he also sold shotguns and ammo.
Anyway, much of this panicky feeling is understandable -- El Trumpo hasn't exactly inspired confidence allegedly at the helm. Ditto Half Pence. And it puts the rest of us in a bind -- if we don't go get essentials like everyone else, what will be left, and when can we expect to get it?
My TJ run was compartively boring -
busy but everyone was very calm. (Keeping calm during the fires and PG&E cuts was necessary and may now be second nature for most in the area.) Everything on my need list was available. Didn't inspect the frozen food section (don't buy much of it anyway because it's pricey) or the empty shelves, but noted that there was no pasta, totally understandable since it's imported from Italy.
Don't you worry --
I managed to get the last bag of spaghetti on the shelves. Of course, I had to push aside a rather elderly woman who was in my way, and I hope she's recovering fine by now, but the important thing is I got it.
I will now await to see whether my newly arrived guest from Beijing, who insisted on going to the grocery store to buy milk, was successful in her journey. To my credit, and to make up for that unfortunate display today at TJs, I offered to drive her, but she insisted on not bothering me.
Crazy world out there. And how reassuring that we have Donald Trump and Mike Pence taking charge at this important moment in history.
We'll just eat more Pad Thai
(pasta wasn't on my list; always have some lying around b/c I don't use it that often and assume the grocery store will have plenty of domestic pasta available.) Expect the independent Asian market will continue operating., but their imported stock may run low.
We ventured out yesterday.
Tis a sad sight to behold. Local patrons panicking serve only to stimulate further panic. Must be some sort of positive feedback loop or something.
And, it is stunning (surreal in fact) how this process propagates faster than the speed of light. As in: I didn't see that coming.
Stupid me, I actually was surprised to see empty displays and to be discussing same with an employee. Naive, I am.
RIP
We really didn't see it coming either
It's pretty much a day by day situation for all of us at the store right now. The most challenging part, aside from the physical work, is dealing with the fear and the negativity from customers who are completely oblivious to what is going on around them in a bigger picture. They are the ones you want to put in a "time-out" corner. And then you have the customers who do have the eyes to see what is going on around them, and they behave accordingly. They bag their own groceries, they smile, and they are quiet. Meaning they don't needlessly pile on by forcing me to answer questions about how "crazy it is!!". One lovely customer even went as far as to thank me for being "so calm" as she said goodbye. I have to remain calm or I'll lose my mind. I do a lot of self-care at home right now to achieve that. A lot of rest. A lot of sleep. Vitamins and supplements. Veggies and protein. No sugar. No junk food. And a lot of chanting and meditating. Healthy mind. Healthy body.
But things are indeed pretty crazy right now at the store. They've approved OT time because they need bodies on the floor to stock the shelves when the deliveries come in, but as much as I could use the extra money, I really need to self care and have decided to let the young crew members pick up the slack during this very extraordinary time.
And speaking of extraordinary times; any one who is sick, even with just the sniffles, Trader Joe's will reimburse us when we use our sick leave. Meaning that whatever sick leave time we take when we stay home, we will get it back. It's a responsible policy for a company to have right now. Can't say any of the other retailers are following suit.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Curiously enough the run at the local stores around my
neck of the woods started the day after tRumpolini spoke.
so yep tRump fiddled, we burn
To begin with all the grocery stores in my neck of the woods (northern Chicago burbs)
are experiencing a run on products. Whole Foods with many empty shelves, courtesy of my daughters friend who works there, then there is the local store 2 blocks from home has many empty shelves and lastly the store where I make my weekly run had many items missing that would normally be available during my weekend shop.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
My sardonic mind at work - they bought up *all* of the
frozen food, now, should PG&E do ITS thing ...
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
I just had what I think is a moment of clarity.
Why are people out shopping their brains out in response to a crisis? Because we have been cast as consumers in this economy and that is what consumers ae supposed to do. We (with exceptions, of course) want to act, but the only act our leaders want from us is buying things. People feel that the shit is finally hitting the fan. They have probably felt it coming for some time. Now we have a sign that things are getting bad. What should we do?
We are not supposed to demonstrate. That is met with militancy by the authorities. Therefore, the only approved mode of action is buying stuff. And people have been told to stock up. Their uneasiness in light of an uncertain future is expressed in panic buying, the ultimate act of the obedient consumer.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
Bingo.
All the mass-buying is silly. We have plenty of food in the house and a good supply of TP, paper towels, kleenex, and hand soap already (yay Costco!). I know many others aren't so lucky though who can't afford to stock up. This will hit them the hardest.
As much as I hate living with my mom sometimes, we're still in the best possible place--middle of nowhere, we know how to cook from scratch and we all know how to shoot now. Unless things go really tits-up we'll be just fine.
This shit is bananas.
This is what a hidden rationed
medical care system does during a pandemic. (For the record, I'm an advocate for socialized medicine like public education; socialized health insurance is only a half-way step, like charter schools that end up as high cost and on average low quality.)
Even as this country spends approximately twice as much per capita on heath care than other countries with UHC spends, the supply of medical care (nurses, primary care physicians, clinic, hospitals and hospital beds) and well-functioning public health departments are held to a minimum. It's the only way the providers (including hospitals and physicians), medical supply and equipment producers and distributors, and health insurers can earn healthy profits. Drug manufacturers build in healthy profits in the cost of medicines and are only rationed by ability to pay. It's a sick care medical system.
American accept this because they buy into the notion that other people, particularly working class and poor people, would overuse medical care; run to the doctor for every sniffle and thus, interfere with "haves" god given right to all the medical attention they want.
The US health care system is now rolling the dice and counting on: 1) two week long local shutdowns and the general public to self isolate when not feeling well (only a few of whom will become sick enough to need a hospital bed) slow down and prevent the spread beyond that of annual influenza. 2) Almost all of whom are infected will recover without the need for medical attention (there's no cure for it) and develop an immunity. 3) the incidence of infections declines within six weeks. 4) a vaccine will be developed quickly enough to immunize those that haven't been infected.
The business/community shutdowns and self-isolation when ill will disproportionately affect hourly and casual workers -- iow low income earners. Not that this country gives much of a damn about them otherwise.
Effective contact tracing for those tested and the test is positive far exceeds the capacity of public health professionals. (They do a good job on contact tracing for TB and administer TB skin tests, but that's quick, easy, and inexpensive to do.)
Agree that the testing for CoVid-19 is too limited and too slow, but that's a public health issue, and not a medical issue for those tested as the diagnosis doesn't result in treatment. Beyond the cost ($500-$1,000 a pop; at the high end for 330 million people that's $330 billion), mass universal testing isn't good medicine. Most of those tested would come out negative, but that only means as of that date they either haven't been exposed to the virus or not at a stage where the test would come out positive; the risk is that those people would then have a false sense of security, not take normal precautions, and ignore symptoms that develop later. And at least two tests are required for those not asymptomatic, first to confirm the virus and second to confirm the recovery and all clear to break isolation/quarantine.
I never wanted to be a character in a dystopian
novel, yet here I am. I’ve spent some of my time trying to figure out what to do if my husband and I die and no one comes to remove our corpses. My 31 year old Aspie son would have to deal with them somehow. I’ve decided that he could drag them into the back of my husband’s old pick up and put the cap on to keep out animals.
Too dark? I saw a video of an Italian man who couldn’t get anyone to remove a corpse from his home. And we are less prepared than Italy.
Maybe this whole mess will finally prove the idiocy of neoliberal capitalism. Maybe.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
But don't
underestimate the Power Of Stupid.
I can guarantee that if the lesson can be misinterpreted it will be misinterpreted.
RIP
Bernie Sanders could lead us through this.
(Note: the MSM does not want the American people to hear Bernie's speech, probably because it makes clear that he is the person who should be leading this country. I encountered amazing road blocks in locating and listening to Bernie's covid-19 speech. On some venues, the sound is muted. Search engines kept trying to direct me to Biden's remarks.)
For anyone who hasn't already heard them, here are Yesterday's remarks: [video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJ2zKWce0g8]
.
Here is a transcript of Bernie's speech from yesterday, March 12: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/bernie-sanders-coronavirus-speech-t...
If it weren't for the MSM and the DNC, we could be well on our way to electing a president who has our best interests at heart.
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
HuffPo pulls a CNN
we all remember how it went at that CNN debate.
CNN lady: Sen. Sanders, why did you say a woman couldn't win?
Bernie: I didn't say that.
CNN lady: Sen. Warren, how did you feel when Sen. Sanders said that?
Well now some guy at HuffPo has done that with this article.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-bernie-sanders-c...
We get this...
wait! the guy just said she did go to events! I guess if you're trying to push a narrative (as they call it) if the facts don't fit you have to just plow on through.
Just got word all the schools in the county...
are closing for the next two weeks.
Good thing we already voted, but how can the jamokes in the Dem establishment still want to hold elections through the middle of the pandemic while at the same time blame Trump for his lack of response?
Bogglingly shortsighted on so many levels.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
another good site with COVID info
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars...
a nice feature is they are doing daily updates with new information so you don't have to search out that info every day. It is probably a good idea to bookmark 2-3 different sites, but this one seems pretty comprehensive.
take care,
Michael
thanks - will add this to my check daily list.
Well balanced information.
Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.