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Humans are good at thinking their way out of problems – but climate change is outfoxing us

The Conversation

Humans are a highly adaptive species. In the initial phases of global warming in the 20th century, we coped with the changes. But at some point, the pace and extent of global warming will outrun the human capacity to adapt. Already in Australia, there are signs we have reached that point. ...

Political and public resistance to climate mitigation is largely driven by professed concern about the price and reliability of electricity – that a transition to renewable energy will cause supply shortages and higher energy bills.

However a failure to act on climate change has itself put huge stress on the electricity system.

Hot summers have caused old coal-fired power stations to break down more frequently. And the increased use of air-conditioning has increased electricity demand – particularly at peak times, which our system is ill-equipped to handle.

Finally, the recent bushfire disaster destroyed substantial parts of the electricity transmission and distribution system, implying yet further costs. Insurance costs for electricity networks are tipped to rise in response to the bushfire risk, pushing power prices even higher.

So far, the federal government’s response to the threat has been that of a failed state.

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Lessons from the Dust Bowl w/ Ken Burns
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9GkNQa5of8]
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Can trees control algal blooms?
PHYS ORG

Professor Burford said investigating how leaf litter can play a role in limiting those impacts could aid management authorities and environmental managers such as Healthy Land Water and Seqwater in managing, monitoring and treating impacted water.

"Trees have an even greater role in preserving water quality than we previously thought," she said.

"Nutrients from the land—via fertilizers and soil erosion, for example—are a major cause of algal blooms, and planting trees along waterways is one way to reduce nutrient runoff.

"This is because trees take up nutrients from the soil in order to grow. But trees have another role, as we have recently found.

"Trees and other plants also deliver organic material into waterways. They drop their leaves, they fall in the water or they fall on the ground, so we get leaf litter everywhere."

5 Reasons Many See Trump’s Free Trade Deal as a Triumph for Fossil Fuels
Inside Climate News

But for now, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) helps three of the world's biggest energy trading partners defer such considerations at a time when science and the Paris Agreement on climate change call for an all-out effort to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions.

"It will help corporations export pollution and jobs, weaken climate policies, and extract more fossil fuels," said Ben Beachy, director of the Sierra Club's Living Economy Program. "It's a climate failure any way you look at it. How do you square that with the science telling us that we have 10 years to avoid a climate catastrophe?"

Fuel efficient tech may threaten climate, public health
EurekAlert

The gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine is one of the most prominent technologies car manufacturers adopted to achieve the fuel economy and carbon dioxide emission goals established in 2012 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The market share of GDI-equipped vehicles increased from 2.3% in model year 2008 to 51% in model year 2018. The EPA projects 93% of vehicles in the U.S. will be equipped with GDI engines by 2025.

While this technology is credited with boosting fuel efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions, GDI engines produce more black carbon aerosols than traditional port fuel injection engines. A strong absorber of solar radiation, black carbon exhibits significant climate warming properties.

Preparing land for palm oil causes most climate damage
PHYS ORG

New research has found preparing land for palm oil plantations and the growth of young plants causes significantly more damage to the environment, emitting double the amount of greenhouse gases than mature plantations.

This is the first study to examine the three main greenhouse gas emissions across the different age stages of palm oil plantations. It was carried out by plant scientists from the University of Nottingham in the North Selangor peat swamp forest in Malaysia with support from the Salangor State Forestry Department. It has been published today in Nature Communications.

Palm oil is the most consumed and widely traded vegetable oil in the world. Global demand has more than tripled in the last eighteen years, from around 20 million tonnes in 2000 to over 70 million in 2018 and Malaysia is the world's second largest producer. The University of Nottingham researchers analysed five sites at four different stages of land use: secondary forest, recently drained but uncleared forest, cleared and recently planted young oil palm plantation and mature oil palm plantation.

Climate Costs Rise as Amazon, Retailers Compete on Fast Delivery
Inside Climate News

"Can you please explain this ridiculous surplus of packaging used to ship a tiny box of pointe shoe ribbons? WE CANNOT!!! TOLERATE! WASTE LIKE THIS!!" tweeted one Amazon user. ...

Across its operations, Amazon emitted 44 million metric tonnes equivalent of carbon dioxide last year—roughly the same as Denmark. Emissions at logistics company UPS rose 6 percent last year to 14.6 million metric tonnes from a year earlier, in part because of increased reliance on aircraft.

"The problem isn't buying online—it's how the delivery is implemented and how packages come to our door," said Anne Goodchild, a transportation engineer at the University of Washington's Supply Chain Transportation and Logistics Center.

Climate Change—and Ideas for Tackling It—Dominated Davos
The Wall Street Journal

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos showed climate change has become a top issue for many businesses and governments, but also demonstrated a yawning gap between how they view the scale of the challenge and what can be achieved without significant new policies.

It was a year in which the issue, which many people here believe has contributed to extreme weather-related events such as the Australian bush fires, appeared to shift from a fashionable talking point to a matter that is beginning to have real-world consequences for many banks and businesses.

“Davos turned into a climate-change conference this year,” Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said Thursday. But he said “the massive gap between ambition and concrete action to change the emissions trajectory remains glaring.”

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Symphony of Soil (1 hr 44 min)
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDZVKMe2FTg]
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Arctic sea ice can't 'bounce back'
Science Daily

Arctic sea ice cannot "quickly bounce back" if climate change causes it to melt, new research suggests.

A team of scientists led by the University of Exeter used the shells of quahog clams, which can live for hundreds of years, and climate models to discover how Arctic sea ice has changed over the last 1,000 years.

They found sea ice coverage shifts over timescales of decades to centuries -- so shrinking ice cannot be expected to return rapidly if climate change is slowed or reversed.

The study examined whether past ice changes north of Iceland were "forced" (caused by events such as volcanic eruptions and variations in the sun's output) or "unforced" (part of a natural pattern).

At least a third of past variation was found to be "forced" -- showing the climate system is "very sensitive" to such driving factors, according to lead author Dr Paul Halloran, of the University of Exeter.

"There is increasing evidence that many aspects of our changing climate aren't caused by natural variation, but are instead 'forced' by certain events," he said.

"Our study shows the large effect that climate drivers can have on Arctic sea ice, even when those drivers are weak as is the case with volcanic eruptions or solar changes.

Scientists develop a concept of a hybrid thorium reactor
PHYS ORG

Russian scientists have proposed a concept of a thorium hybrid reactor in that obtains additional neutrons using high-temperature plasma held in a long magnetic trap. This project was applied in close collaboration between Tomsk Polytechnic University, All-Russian Scientific Research Institute Of Technical Physics (VNIITF), and Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of SB RAS. The proposed thorium hybrid reactor is distinguished from today's nuclear reactors by moderate power, relatively compact size, high operational safety, and a low level of radioactive waste.

"At the initial stage, we get relatively cold plasma using special plasma guns. We retain the amount by deuterium gas injection. The injected neutral beams with particle energy of 100 keV into this plasma generate the high-energy deuterium and tritium ions and maintain the required temperature. Colliding with each other, deuterium and tritium ions are combined into a helium nucleus so high-energy neutrons are released. These neutrons can freely pass through the walls of the vacuum chamber, where the plasma is held by a magnetic field, and entering the area with nuclear fuel. After slowing down, they support the fission of heavy nuclei, which serves as the main source of energy released in the hybrid reactor, " says professor Andrei Arzhannikov, a chief researcher of Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of SB RAS.

The main advantage of a hybrid nuclear fusion reactor is the simultaneous use of the fission reaction of heavy nuclei and synthesis of light ones. It minimizes the disadvantages of applying these nuclear reactions separately.

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Maybe this will wake more people up. The Climate Crisis has finally made it big time...

Climate Change Is Here—It’s Too Late for Pessimism
The Nation

Showtime’s Years of Living Dangerously, a nine-part series about climate change that premiered last night, is essential viewing. The series documents the far-reaching consequences of climate change, ...

(The premiere episode opens with Harrison Ford flying a reconfigured-for-science fighter plane to gather pollution data), money (James Cameron, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jerry Weintraub are executive producers), and smarts. ...

As the series progresses, a team of actors, activists and journalists will lead viewers through a series of reports and dispatches from around the world. In two episodes, for example, Nation contributing editor and former Washington editor Chris Hayes files reports about Superstorm Sandy and rising ocean levels. On his show on MSNBC, Hayes noted the necessary immediacy of the series: climate change, he says, “is not some future thing. This is it 2014. It is here now. You can go to these places and see it.”

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magiamma's picture

It seems like there is more and more Climate news bubbling up to the MSM, in spite of a concerted effort to suppress it.

It may be good news that The Climate Crisis is now the star of a showtime series and that more and more people are trying hard to figure out how to make a profit off the crisis.

On the other hand, there is little understanding of the complete systemic change that is required. And that capitalism is the root cause. And that it is an emergency.

I took a break from the campaign and went to a soil workshop yesterday in Moss Landing. Most of the 50 folks there were people working in the field of soil science plus a few ranchers. Our SC climate contingency attended.

Climate change was definitely a part of the conversation. One of the presenters made it very clear that soil science was incredibly important, but all the new research techniques, even if applied on a large scale, could not, on their own, reduce greenhouse gases significantly.

It was a nice break from the campaign. There is a big campus rally today and still much to prepare.

Bernie continues to surge forward and I continue to hold my breath, waiting for the PTB to do a full frontal attack. It will happen. The odd thing is, so far, the attacks have only helped him. 'They' must be racking their brains trying to think of ways to foul our movement.

Onward...

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QMS's picture

The storytellers trying to bury Bernie.
Keep up the good fight magi!

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magiamma's picture

@QMS
this is it - the fight for our lives.

To rig primary against Bernie, DNC chair Tom Perez nominates regime-change agents, Israel lobbyists, and Wall Street consultants
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/01/27/dnc-perez-regime-change-agents-israel...

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mimi's picture

we will save the earth, because
"It Is The Only Planet With Music".

I had a nice photo taken in 2014 of a man whose name I don"t know anymore, but who carried that sign for the People's Climate March on September 2014. I can't upload it properly, unfortunately. But it is in our spirit and minds.

Have a good one.

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magiamma's picture

@mimi
thank you for the good thought. Made me smile. Indeed. Not to despair, but acknowledge. Lots of beauty in the world to embrace. Be well and have a good one...

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Cassiodorus's picture

and some of us were merely wondering what the capitalist elites' propaganda was about this topic (without, however, having any desire to pay for it). Maybe I'll jaunt off to the local university to see if I can't access it there, later.

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“The Democrats and Republicans want you to believe they are mortal enemies engaged in a desperate struggle when all the time, they are partners with a power-sharing agreement.” - Richard Moser

magiamma's picture

@Cassiodorus
The article do a wick copy past and paste the article in to any word processor, even email.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@magiamma

DAVOS, Switzerland—The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos showed climate change has become a top issue for many businesses and governments, but also demonstrated a yawning gap between how they view the scale of the challenge and what can be achieved without significant new policies.

That's it. What's a "wick copy and paste"?
***
for some reason I see the whole article now. Not sure why. It appears that the elites plan to keep "climate change mitigation" at an endlessly-renewed brainstorming phase. "Gee if we could all agree on how to do it, something might happen."

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“The Democrats and Republicans want you to believe they are mortal enemies engaged in a desperate struggle when all the time, they are partners with a power-sharing agreement.” - Richard Moser

magiamma's picture

@Cassiodorus @Cassiodorus
As typing way to wickly. Lol. You have to be quicker than the process that shuts you out. It’s pretty easy on my computer but not on my phone. Will edit to add more.

edit: so... if you search for the article in google.com it links to the article and it is not blocked. I do not normally use google but will check for article sometimes.

here's some more...

Other executives argued that the discussion was ignoring the importance of economic growth and said there was a need for continued investment in fossil-fuel development, ...

At a panel on the dangers of the Arctic’s melting sea ice, former Vice President Al Gore and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin decried fossil-fuel exploration in the region. But Scott Minerd, chairman of Guggenheim Investments, argued that absent a global price on carbon, stopping such exploration isn’t realistic.

“The reality is until the stakeholders have real incentives to do what is in their economic best interest, all the discussion in the world—forgive me—all the discussion in the world of the do-gooders is not going to change behavior.”
...
The EU already operates a carbon-emissions trading system that puts a price on carbon for most industries and plans to propose next year a carbon border levy that will penalize imports from high-carbon producers outside the bloc.
...
Meanwhile, governments in the other top four carbon emitters—China, the U.S. and India—haven’t committed to cut carbon emissions, while hundreds of new coal-fired power stations are being built in Asia. “Big emitters are essentially addicted to coal, particularly in Asia,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday.
...
At a panel on the dangers of the Arctic’s melting sea ice, ... Scott Minerd, chairman of Guggenheim Investments, argued that absent a global price on carbon, stopping such exploration isn’t realistic.

“The reality is until the stakeholders have real incentives to do what is in their economic best interest...”

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Hawkfish's picture

@magiamma

• opening in an incognito / private window
• turning off JavaScript first
• Export to pdf

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

magiamma's picture

@Hawkfish
Thanks for that and all your comments. Much easier way to do that. Don’t even have JavaScript turned on anyway. Be well...

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smiley7's picture

Clean water act gutted and the MSM barely mentions it; gives one pause.

Some good news:

Scientists always knew that as the top predator, wolves were the missing piece in this ecosystem. But they were astonished at how quickly their return stimulated a transformation. The elk and deer populations started responding immediately. Within about 10 years, willows rebounded. In 20, the aspen began flourishing. Riverbanks stabilized. Songbirds returned as did beavers, eagles, foxes and badgers. “And those are just the things we have the time and funding to study,” said Smith. “There are probably myriad other effects just waiting to be discovered.”https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/25/yellowstone-wolf-pro...

Thank you for your dedication on all fronts and especially your work with young people, they must make it to the polls.

Onward ...

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magiamma's picture

@smiley7
Great quote. We are all so linked together. And life just keeps reaffirming that in so many ways. Thank you for all the good energy you bring. Be well and have a good one...

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Dawn's Meta's picture

@magiamma connect genetic islands to each other allowing diversity by giving corridors to creatures the entire distance. We are just on the verge of discovering and rediscovering the ways to heal and live with our planet.

I am so encouraged by The Knepp Estate, (Isabella Tree - Wilding), re-generative agriculture in the various ways it is interpreted, solar and wind, sustainable technology on peoples' homes, new batteries. We can hope. We must hope. And work.

The French don't have the path figured out either, but many are out there. There are so many ways.

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A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit. Allegedly Greek, but more possibly fairly modern quote.

Consider helping by donating using the button in the upper left hand corner. Thank you.

magiamma's picture

@Dawn's Meta
It is encouraging to see so many people working towards carbon reduction and working to restore our biodiversity. I was thrilled to be in a room with all those soil scientists, many of whom are working towards a sustainable planet. Reaffirming.

We need all of us. Thanks for the link. Be well and have a good one...

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I just returned from a city meeting to discuss climate change and the future of the city. All 100 folks there were tuned in to the issues. There were actually 3 Bolt EVs in the parking lot. Not nearly enough, and these folks were among the converted. Someone had brought an interactive climate change app from MIT. We all played with it. Really hard to limit temperature rise to 1.5 deg C by playing with the sliders. There were many methods discussed to fight climate change, mitigation, such as recycling. There are close to 100 tactics in the toolbox. Most people there agreed that we have to do all of these things, including sex education for teenage girls. The problem is that we will never get there this way. No one is doing the engineering and the math.

There are only two goals, zero out new emissions and capture existing excess CO2. That's it, and you are done, you have saved Earth's biome and the human species.

You have to concentrate on achieving these two goals.

#1 - Zero out new emissions
a. Set a date to terminate production of all gas/diesel burning cars, 2022
b. Set a date to eliminate all gas/diesel burning cars on the road, 2027
c. Set a date to terminate the use of oil for space heating, 2023
e. Set a date for pulling all of the natural gas lines in all cities/towns, 2025
f. Electrify all trains 2025
g. Outlaw the use of coal for electrical power generation, 2022
h. Immediately begin a global project to build 11,000 modular nuclear power stations (SMRs), rolling the weapons grade Uranium and Plutonium from 14,000 nuclear warheads globally into fuel.
i. convert all city to city transportation to HSR by 2030. No passenger jets on short and medium range trips.
...
Plus more, but you get the idea.

#2 CO2 capture
a. Roll all war budgets plus more into R&D for Direct Air Capture and sequestration, 2021
b. Design and build prototype CO2 Capture farms, 2025-2028
c. Begin large scale manufacturing and deployment of these "farms" , 2030
d. All farms working 24/7/365 globally, 2040, CO2 returns to 275 ppm by 2050.

Even with all of my suggestions it is going to be close as to whether we are too late. The issue with Arctic Sea ice is very problematic. We need to start regrowing ice. Looking at geological records, it's clear that at 275-280 ppm of CO2 we are at global ice equilibrium +/-. Below that we are in an ice age, and above that a global ice melt. We need to get to below 275 ppm CO2 to get ice to reform and considerably below that to do it rapidly. We may have to consider Geo-engineering of some form to rapidly lower the temperatures in the Arctic/Antarctic... ugh!

How high will sea level rise go? I'm asked that question a lot. I ask people what they think, and I get answers like 10 feet. The correct answer is 230-260 ft., if CO2 stays above 280 ppm causing all of the planetary ice to melt. Since CO2 stays in the atmosphere for 1000 years and more, I would say that this astronomical sea level rise is baked in today. One of the problems with ice is that it exhibits a nasty positive reinforcing feedback. If you grow ice in place the albedo (reflectivity) of the planet increases and the planet cools and more ice grows. The opposite is what is happening today, less ice lower albedo, more heat, more melt.

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

Hawkfish's picture

@The Wizard

At the moment of the most cost effective ways to store excess renewable generation is syngas via electrolysis. Part of the reason for the cost effectiveness is reuse of existing infrastructure.

There are other possible solutions ( underground pressurized water, LiS batteries) but most of them are not ready for prime time. But if we leave the NG infrastructure in place in private hands, who is going to stop them pumping fossil gas through it?

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Hawkfish's picture

@The Wizard

relating to non-fuel materials (like beryllium) that are in short supply. I have seen projections (BAS) that suggest a limit of 1TW for nuclear build out. I’m not sure what the materials needs are for some of these SMR designs (TerraPower, NuScale and maybe that crazy new Russian thingo Magi posted) but this is a very messy optimization problem.

One way of describing the problem is that our current energy system is that it consists of digging up captured solar energy from the Paleozoic, setting it on fire and using the heat and expanding gasses to push around pieces of iron, which is at the top of the binding energy curve and hence the most common metal in the universe. We are trying to replace all this simple tech by being clever, but I’m not convinced we are clever enough...

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

magiamma's picture

The plan is right on but how do we get there? By 2030? Yes, more and more folks are aware but there is a huge gap between what even educated and climate savvy folks know and what needs to be done quickly if not immediately. Then there are all the rest of the people who are essentially clueless, not to mention those with their hands on the levers of power who have no intention of reducing carbon.

The MIT Enroads program is excellent, but agree that it fails also in some ways. It is a good tool for talking to people who are on the precipice of understanding the climate crisis. Interestingly the biggest change is caused by a tax on carbon iirc. No where does it address consumption. And frankly I think that is the gating factor. We all need to live like East Germans, as I believe lotlizard pointed out.

The sea will rise and when the Arctic and Antarctic glaciers reach their tipping points and we will far and few between if at all.

Thanks so much for your comments. Always enjoy and we all learn from them. Be well and have a good one...
edit

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cali_1.PNG

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magiamma's picture

@gjohnsit
Yes yes... just returned from the campus rally. Just hired for sc for bernie a second organizer. Take them down. No mo oligarchy.

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mimi's picture

I hope this is to come
[video:https://youtu.be/AOu_EXyvFck]

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magiamma's picture

@mimi
It will be a very interesting caucus.

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QMS's picture

The reality is until the stakeholders have real incentives to do what is in their economic best interest

Nothing happens.

So our future is held up by a handful of investors?

In other words -- if we can't make a buck on it, it ain't gonna happen.
Calling bs on that one. Get the 'stakeholders' out of the way and make change.

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smiley7's picture

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magiamma's picture

@smiley7
Lucky puppy!

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