Tulsi Hits 8% in New Hampshire--Sanders Surges More in 538 Forecast

Tulsi reached 8% in an American Research Group (ARG) poll of New Hampshire today. A total of 6% of those polled are still undecided.

ARG NH Poll

Tulsi is spending every upcoming day in New Hampshire. Remember, the NH primary is Feb. 11, not next week, and it seems she is gaining steadily there. It would be nice if she somehow managed 15% and gained delegates there.

In the meanwhile, Sanders continues to gain in FiveThirtyEight estimates.

Sanders is now expected to win Iowa and Massachusetts, taking those wins from Biden and Warren, respectively. He is also now the front runner for Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, and Alaska. Sanders is also in a tie with Biden for American Samoa, Northern Marianas, and Rhode Island, although the site shows Biden winning in those races.

Warren has is estimated to win zero states now. She is now running 3rd in Massachusetts, behind Sanders and Biden.

The current estimated outcomes are now (in terms of total delegates received):

Biden------1,581
Sanders---1,318
Warren-----486
Buttigieg---392

Six days until the Iowa caucus!

Share
up
27 users have voted.

Comments

CB's picture

Can we trust the DNC to report honestly?

up
13 users have voted.
Raggedy Ann's picture

@CB
I have many reservations. Unknw

up
11 users have voted.

"When will our conscience's grow so tender that we will act to prevent human misery rather than avenge it?" Eleanor Roosevelt

"The secret of change is to focus all your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new." Socrates (469-399 BC)

CB's picture

@Raggedy Ann
from her main site where she pegs Warren. It's bit dated, Jan 17, 2020, but it's great. It gives us an idea of where the Millennials and Gen Z stand. This video got 386,972 views.

Enjoy

up
14 users have voted.
Raggedy Ann's picture

@CB
Pleasantry

up
1 user has voted.

"When will our conscience's grow so tender that we will act to prevent human misery rather than avenge it?" Eleanor Roosevelt

"The secret of change is to focus all your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new." Socrates (469-399 BC)

mimi's picture

@CB

up
3 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@CB

up
5 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

up
18 users have voted.

@humphrey , thank you. For what she's been up against, it's exhilarating to watch her putting her surfing skill to such graceful use on the snow. It's gotta be doing her good, too. Brava, Tulsi! Viva, amiga!

up
11 users have voted.

Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl

@humphrey

let Smokey say it-

That clip would raise her 5 points with youth vote guaranteed.

up
5 users have voted.
WoodsDweller's picture

Gabbard age 45+ 10%, age 18-44 6%
Yang.............3%............8%
Biden...........17%............7%
Sanders.........19%...........43%

A large turnout means more young voters and a poorer outcome for Biden and Gabbard, a better outcome for Yang, and a strong performance for Sanders.

Of course, it's anyone's guess what the turnout will be.

Of note, this poll pivots at age 45. So did the Des Moines Register poll in Iowa. Most polls I've seen pivot at age 50. The lower pivot favors Sanders in the top line result.

Unless people change their minds in the next week, I don't see where Gabbard is going to grab a lot of supporters. Maybe Iowa results will send voters fleeing from their first choice. We'll have to wait and see.

EDIT: also sort of interesting, support among women (55% of voters):

Biden 6%, Buttigieg 14%, Gabbard 6%, Klobuchar 10%, Sanders 25%, Warren 15%

EDIT: this one surprised me. Support among registered Democrats:
Biden 16%, Sanders 31%.

But but but but he's not a Democrat!!!!

up
24 users have voted.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett

@WoodsDweller @WoodsDweller
(old browser/OS issue) but I wonder how accurately they are sampling independents and Republicans - who can vote in the Dem primary in NH if they choose to.

Of course the open primary opens things to the possibility of negative "strategic" voting for who people perceive is the worst/weakest opposition candidate.

In this case, though, I'm guessing larger than usual participation by I's and R's would benefit Tulsi most, likely Yang and Bernie also. Somehow can't see it helping Buttigieg/Biden/Warren/Klobuchar...

Big I&R support would likely have the Tulsi-haters spitting even more venom, but more importantly it would enhance her (already strong) electability cred.

At a minimum, I hope she comes in ahead of Amy Chuckachair.

up
10 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@WoodsDweller

I am surprised, and more than a little suspicious, that the mainstream polls and press are showing us the data. Remember that this is all pro wrestling to them. What's their game?

I recognize that these questions aren't enjoyable, when it would be so much better to just enjoy the evidence of Bernie's success--but I've seen too much, for too long, to believe in real world data overwhelming the apparatus of lies. It hasn't before.

The last time I saw something anything like this was in the summer of '08. Suddenly, all opposition to Obama in the press ceased. I noted it at the time with some uneasiness, but was still innocent enough to believe that maybe the press had just capitulated to reality. It turned out, of course, that they were just part of a big scam on all of us.

That time was similar to now, but not the same, because a lot of mainstream sources are still shitting on Bernie. But they are giving representation to people like Krystal Ball as well. Why?

I hope it's like Wally thinks, and it's just that they want ratings. The other possibilities I've come up with suck. But I'll probably never trust those bastards to be reliable narrators of the truth again. Not after the Iraq War, and generally kissing the ass of the Bush administration, and the total crap they pulled on Bernie and the American people last time--and the toxic shit they've been doing with the Democratic "debates" this time.

up
8 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

Their value as a propaganda tool is much greater than their revenue stream.

My guess is that the reason they are hammering Bernie a little less now is that they are losing credibility too fast, and their value as a propaganda tool is being destroyed.

They are holding back in order to save a bit of credibility for some future big lie. In short, they are keeping their powder dry.

up
9 users have voted.

I don't want Trump to win, but I do want the establishment Dems to lose due to their cheating and undemocratic practices in the primary. And I will do whatever I can to help that happen.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@entrepreneur

My guess is that the reason they are hammering Bernie a little less now is that they are losing credibility too fast, and their value as a propaganda tool is being destroyed.

Maybe it shook them when their handpicked audience for the Democratic debate laughed at Abby Phillip's question:

up
4 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

WoodsDweller's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
Are you surprised that they are publishing the crosstabs? They always do that, it's just that very few people look at them. Are you surprised they are publishing polls favorable to Bernie? Pollsters are a business, and the last couple of polls they release before an election are the ones that count. They show those results to potential clients along with the election results to show they deserve their business. Six months before an election they are free to set a narrative, but two weeks before an election they have to put out their best work. I think this "surge" Sanders is seeing is less a matter of people making up their minds than the pollsters switching to "reality mode".
Even if you look at polls as pure propaganda, the propaganda value is diminished if they are horribly wrong on election day. CNN is still in business the next day in that case, but the pollsters aren't.

up
6 users have voted.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett

@WoodsDweller returning to reality, but I think it's more about voters doing the same as we get very close now to actual voting.

As to polling generally, the polling organizations have to be somewhat in the ballpark in their numbers or otherwise even the dimmest bulbs out there would recognize they have no credibility and they would be out of business.

up
3 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@WoodsDweller

in the first place (as opposed to only sampling voters over 50, and other cute tactics that have been used recently), and yes, I'm surprised that those polls are being covered by the corporate press.

up
2 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@WoodsDweller


Pollsters are a business, and the last couple of polls they release before an election are the ones that count. They show those results to potential clients along with the election results to show they deserve their business. Six months before an election they are free to set a narrative, but two weeks before an election they have to put out their best work. I think this "surge" Sanders is seeing is less a matter of people making up their minds than the pollsters switching to "reality mode".

And infinitely preferable to a couple of the scenarios I'd come up with.

up
5 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

snoopydawg's picture

Why? Reasons of course. But what I'd like to see is every person who is invited to say no unless everyone running is. This effing primary has been futzed with enough and it's time for all candidates to stand up for each other.

up
18 users have voted.

"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

Shahryar's picture

@snoopydawg

"Look, while I'd like to see a fair race, one that all Americans can be proud of, it is too important at this time to be concerned about just how fair we can be. Look, I know that Tulsi is doing well in New Hampshire, even running ahead of Senator Klobuchar, but we, as Americans, can do so much better."

The last bit in my imagined response from him makes as much sense as he does. The italics indicate where he scrunches his shoulders and speaking voice as he tries to look and sound authentic.

up
12 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@snoopydawg

Bernie's the only one among those on that stage to whom I give the benefit of the doubt.

up
8 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

snoopydawg's picture

I don’t understand why Bernie supporters are going around making these demands for pledges to “vote blue no matter what.” I just had ANOTHER argument on Facebook with a Petestan (I think he is currently too inexperienced for the job). She got snippy but she did not snap back “Of course you’ll vote for him if he’s the nominee, right?” I have literally not heard this from a supporter of anyone else.

Gee could it be because Bernie had to sign a pledge saying that he'd support the candidate who wins? And cuz people like Neera keep saying that this election is too important to lose and we all have to vote blue no matter who?

But she keeps going.

Why should he leave the Democratic Party? If it’s a big enough tent for misogynists, racists and homophobes, according to some (and we saw how THAT worked out for Democrats in Ohio in 2010), why NOT good old Uncle Joe? He seems like a Democrat to me, no matter what “AOC” says.

Umm I thought misogynists, racists and homophobes were welcome to exit the party? Sigh. The pretzelized thinking of some people just to get a dig in.

I hope you don't mind if I leave this here.

DCOTN #4

As mentioned on MSNBC earlier this afternoon Claire McCaskill said the repubs have to state specifically just what is Biden supposed to have done—say specifically what probable cause there is for an investigation, further mentioning since the repub is the Senate majority, than just investigate Joe Biden they have the majority, since they are so sure, just do it.

Well gee whiz if people had listened to Bondi they would understand exactly what ByeDone did.

up
12 users have voted.

"It seems to me that the problem is that group party interests, in this case, are placed above the interests of the entire society and the interests of people,"

orlbucfan's picture

@snoopydawg of Sick Rott's cabinet in FL. She was his (cough, cough) "Attorney General." Keep that fact in the back of your mind. Rec'd!!

up
5 users have voted.

Some yahoos make me want to change species!

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@snoopydawg

Isn't she the one who said the Green New Deal "wouldn't play well" with her constituents--after she lost?

up
9 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

mimi's picture

I mean aside of donating money?

She is my favorite candidate. Bernie is my second favorite candidate. Both together would be my dream team. And all that from far away. Is there anything that makes sense to do for me right now?

up
6 users have voted.
Dawn's Meta's picture

@mimi @mimi Campaign group nearest you. They do 'text/SMS banking' for Bernie. Just like in the states, many are neo liibs. Bernie has (phone) SMS banking in France and we get France for Bernie buttons.

up
0 users have voted.

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit. Allegedly Greek, but more possibly fairly modern quote.

Consider helping by donating using the button in the upper left hand corner. Thank you.