Tulsi Hits 8% in New Hampshire--Sanders Surges More in 538 Forecast
Tulsi reached 8% in an American Research Group (ARG) poll of New Hampshire today. A total of 6% of those polled are still undecided.
Tulsi is spending every upcoming day in New Hampshire. Remember, the NH primary is Feb. 11, not next week, and it seems she is gaining steadily there. It would be nice if she somehow managed 15% and gained delegates there.
In the meanwhile, Sanders continues to gain in FiveThirtyEight estimates.
Sanders is now expected to win Iowa and Massachusetts, taking those wins from Biden and Warren, respectively. He is also now the front runner for Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, and Alaska. Sanders is also in a tie with Biden for American Samoa, Northern Marianas, and Rhode Island, although the site shows Biden winning in those races.
Warren has is estimated to win zero states now. She is now running 3rd in Massachusetts, behind Sanders and Biden.
The current estimated outcomes are now (in terms of total delegates received):
Biden------1,581
Sanders---1,318
Warren-----486
Buttigieg---392
Six days until the Iowa caucus!
Comments
Iowa caucuses to use new smartphone app
Can we trust the DNC to report honestly?
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNRPmK_sFDg]
It certainly concerns me.
I have many reservations.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
I came across one of Shoe's videos
from her main site where she pegs Warren. It's bit dated, Jan 17, 2020, but it's great. It gives us an idea of where the Millennials and Gen Z stand. This video got 386,972 views.
Enjoy
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJGSMDjI7lk]
Thanks!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
dummest app ever, it's the apps stupid /nt
https://www.euronews.com/live
No.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Tulsi relaxing.
That was terrific,
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
cool runnings
let Smokey say it-
That clip would raise her 5 points with youth vote guaranteed.
Checking the crosstabs at your link
Gabbard age 45+ 10%, age 18-44 6%
Yang.............3%............8%
Biden...........17%............7%
Sanders.........19%...........43%
A large turnout means more young voters and a poorer outcome for Biden and Gabbard, a better outcome for Yang, and a strong performance for Sanders.
Of course, it's anyone's guess what the turnout will be.
Of note, this poll pivots at age 45. So did the Des Moines Register poll in Iowa. Most polls I've seen pivot at age 50. The lower pivot favors Sanders in the top line result.
Unless people change their minds in the next week, I don't see where Gabbard is going to grab a lot of supporters. Maybe Iowa results will send voters fleeing from their first choice. We'll have to wait and see.
EDIT: also sort of interesting, support among women (55% of voters):
Biden 6%, Buttigieg 14%, Gabbard 6%, Klobuchar 10%, Sanders 25%, Warren 15%
EDIT: this one surprised me. Support among registered Democrats:
Biden 16%, Sanders 31%.
But but but but he's not a Democrat!!!!
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Couldn't get at the crosstabs
(old browser/OS issue) but I wonder how accurately they are sampling independents and Republicans - who can vote in the Dem primary in NH if they choose to.
Of course the open primary opens things to the possibility of negative "strategic" voting for who people perceive is the worst/weakest opposition candidate.
In this case, though, I'm guessing larger than usual participation by I's and R's would benefit Tulsi most, likely Yang and Bernie also. Somehow can't see it helping Buttigieg/Biden/Warren/Klobuchar...
Big I&R support would likely have the Tulsi-haters spitting even more venom, but more importantly it would enhance her (already strong) electability cred.
At a minimum, I hope she comes in ahead of Amy Chuckachair.
I'm not surprised at the data.
I am surprised, and more than a little suspicious, that the mainstream polls and press are showing us the data. Remember that this is all pro wrestling to them. What's their game?
I recognize that these questions aren't enjoyable, when it would be so much better to just enjoy the evidence of Bernie's success--but I've seen too much, for too long, to believe in real world data overwhelming the apparatus of lies. It hasn't before.
The last time I saw something anything like this was in the summer of '08. Suddenly, all opposition to Obama in the press ceased. I noted it at the time with some uneasiness, but was still innocent enough to believe that maybe the press had just capitulated to reality. It turned out, of course, that they were just part of a big scam on all of us.
That time was similar to now, but not the same, because a lot of mainstream sources are still shitting on Bernie. But they are giving representation to people like Krystal Ball as well. Why?
I hope it's like Wally thinks, and it's just that they want ratings. The other possibilities I've come up with suck. But I'll probably never trust those bastards to be reliable narrators of the truth again. Not after the Iraq War, and generally kissing the ass of the Bush administration, and the total crap they pulled on Bernie and the American people last time--and the toxic shit they've been doing with the Democratic "debates" this time.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
"What's their game?" I suspect that it is not about ratings.
Their value as a propaganda tool is much greater than their revenue stream.
My guess is that the reason they are hammering Bernie a little less now is that they are losing credibility too fast, and their value as a propaganda tool is being destroyed.
They are holding back in order to save a bit of credibility for some future big lie. In short, they are keeping their powder dry.
This is also really smart:
My guess is that the reason they are hammering Bernie a little less now is that they are losing credibility too fast, and their value as a propaganda tool is being destroyed.
Maybe it shook them when their handpicked audience for the Democratic debate laughed at Abby Phillip's question:
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Not quite sure what you're saying...
Are you surprised that they are publishing the crosstabs? They always do that, it's just that very few people look at them. Are you surprised they are publishing polls favorable to Bernie? Pollsters are a business, and the last couple of polls they release before an election are the ones that count. They show those results to potential clients along with the election results to show they deserve their business. Six months before an election they are free to set a narrative, but two weeks before an election they have to put out their best work. I think this "surge" Sanders is seeing is less a matter of people making up their minds than the pollsters switching to "reality mode".
Even if you look at polls as pure propaganda, the propaganda value is diminished if they are horribly wrong on election day. CNN is still in business the next day in that case, but the pollsters aren't.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Could be the polls
As to polling generally, the polling organizations have to be somewhat in the ballpark in their numbers or otherwise even the dimmest bulbs out there would recognize they have no credibility and they would be out of business.
I'm surprised that such polls are being produced
in the first place (as opposed to only sampling voters over 50, and other cute tactics that have been used recently), and yes, I'm surprised that those polls are being covered by the corporate press.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
This is smart.
Pollsters are a business, and the last couple of polls they release before an election are the ones that count. They show those results to potential clients along with the election results to show they deserve their business. Six months before an election they are free to set a narrative, but two weeks before an election they have to put out their best work. I think this "surge" Sanders is seeing is less a matter of people making up their minds than the pollsters switching to "reality mode".
And infinitely preferable to a couple of the scenarios I'd come up with.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Tulsi is not invited to the CNN townhall
Why? Reasons of course. But what I'd like to see is every person who is invited to say no unless everyone running is. This effing primary has been futzed with enough and it's time for all candidates to stand up for each other.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
I can't imagine Mayo Pete taking a stand like that
"Look, while I'd like to see a fair race, one that all Americans can be proud of, it is too important at this time to be concerned about just how fair we can be. Look, I know that Tulsi is doing well in New Hampshire, even running ahead of Senator Klobuchar, but we, as Americans, can do so much better."
The last bit in my imagined response from him makes as much sense as he does. The italics indicate where he scrunches his shoulders and speaking voice as he tries to look and sound authentic.
If they were real candidates, they might.
Bernie's the only one among those on that stage to whom I give the benefit of the doubt.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
DCOTN #3
Gee could it be because Bernie had to sign a pledge saying that he'd support the candidate who wins? And cuz people like Neera keep saying that this election is too important to lose and we all have to vote blue no matter who?
But she keeps going.
Umm I thought misogynists, racists and homophobes were welcome to exit the party? Sigh. The pretzelized thinking of some people just to get a dig in.
I hope you don't mind if I leave this here.
DCOTN #4
Well gee whiz if people had listened to Bondi they would understand exactly what ByeDone did.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
P.S.: Pam Bondi is a crook and a proud former member
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
Why is anybody still listening to Claire McCaskill!?!
Isn't she the one who said the Green New Deal "wouldn't play well" with her constituents--after she lost?
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
So, what's right now the best way to help Tulsi?
I mean aside of donating money?
She is my favorite candidate. Bernie is my second favorite candidate. Both together would be my dream team. And all that from far away. Is there anything that makes sense to do for me right now?
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