Delegate Counts as of 27 March, 2015.

This is from BloombergPolitcs. The graphics are very good. If you float over the states which have already had primaries, you can see the splits.

One complaint: I would like to see the same totals graphic without the Super delegates included. Otherwise a nice presentation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/

I found another site which does include columns for superdelegates:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

Thanks to everyone who has kept us up-to-date on the three primaries from yesterday.

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jiordan's picture

I was looking for a delegate count this morning. Looks like Bernie cut Clinton's lead down from 315 to 237 in pledged delegates this weekend and he should pick up a few more after the final count.

Trying not to get too excited about the turnaround because I know some harder states are coming up, but still, it was nice to see an all Bernie weekend.

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It's from the Kossacks for Sanders subreddit.

Bernie quietly snags a few more delegates from Georgia, Texas, Florida, and Louisiana

His post explains what he did to get the data.

Here's the guy's spreadsheet

Before yesterday, he had Sanders with 933 delegates and Clinton with 1229 delegates.

Yesterday, Bernie picked up

13 delegates in Alaska
17 delegates in Hawaii
74 delegates (estimated) Washington
104 delegates total (Washington estimate is from Greenpapers - you have to scroll down to 2nd table)

Using the same sources, Hillary picked up
3 delegates in Alaska
8 delegates in Hawaii
27 delegates (estimated) in Washington.
38 delegates total.

If my math is correct, Bernie closed the gap with Hillary by 66 delegates.

That would put Clinton at 1,267 delegates and Bernie at 1,037 delegates - a difference of 230 delegates.

That's assuming the other guy's data is correct, though, so take it FWIW.

Edited to fix a link

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PastorAgnostic's picture

Even mentioned the three states' results. 7 am CST. It was such a obvious effort to avoid the results. The news (?) was all trump and Hillary, all the time.

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After the WA, HI and AK caucuses, the delegate deficit has dropped to 226.
Bern HILL LEAD AVAILABLE LEAD AS PERCENT
MARCH 25 934 1228 294 1889 15.56%
MARCH 26 1039 1265 226 1747 13.05%

Bernie picked up 105 delegates today. That was well ahead of my target of 91, and the 538 estimates for a tied race, which was 81.

Bernie now has 1039 delegates to Hillary’s 1265. These are preliminary figures, better estimates will be available Monday and some change will likely occur as we move through the district/state conventions.
STATE DELEGATES TYPE 538 TARGET SUBIR TARGET Actual Delegate Actual Vote VOTE TARGET VOTE TARGET
AK 16 Closed Caucus 9 10 13 82% 5,550 62.5%
HI 25 Closed Caucus 13 15 18 71% 22,537 56.3%
WA 101 Modified Caucus 59 66 74 73% 399,880 64.3%
TOTAL 142 81 91 105 427,967

Overall, Bernie had a very, very good night, winning all three states by big margins. Today’s races gave Bernie a net gain of 68 delegates. 538’s demographic model says Bernie would have had 1130 delegates at this point if the race were tied nationally. With 1039, Bernie is now at 92% of their overall target, or 91 delegates short.

I want to credit Demosten forpointing out what the campaigns were signalling in Washington and what that probably meant. That’s the “tail probability” I obliquely referred to in the post. We left it out of the public discussion till after the caucus since it would have seemed too cocky. But full credit to Demosten for identifying the trends (and for all his help with updates tonight). BTW, his target for today was more optimistic, 110-32. I’m very pleased to report that he was much closer than I was :-). As an aside, it’s also likely that there are another 4 delegate pickups from the Colorado district convention (will confirm when we have independent validation).

In Alaska and Hawaii, Bernie matched or beat the targets/estimates that Demosten, Torilahure and I had calculated. Washington also exceeded most level-headed estimates. Fantastic job from everyone on the ground turning out the vote.

Looking forward, Bernie needs 987 delegates out of 1747 (56.5%) remaining to hit the 2,026 majority of 4051 total pledged delegates. That is down from 59% after Super Tuesday. The 538 demographic model suggests he would receive 51.3% (896) of delegates remaining if the race was tied. We need to bump that up by 5%.

Sorry for the crappy formatting. If you actually want to read the whole diary, here is the link

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petral's picture

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

The "soft pledged" includes anticipated delegates from state conventions based on caucus delegates.

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GreyWolf's picture

so I borrowed some images, and I'm gonna leave them here Wink

00 delegates.jpg

00 screengrab.jpg

make me an honest man and give the originals some love over at The Guardian (thanks Wink

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This is fun--you can make your own predictions by estimating how well he might do in upcoming states.

http://demrace.com/

I just found this today--I think somebody posted it in one of subir's diaries. Sorry I don't remember who that clever person was;I just grabbed and ran...

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