The first post-debate polls

So the Warren campaign, CNN, WashPost (which has been worse than normal), and the DNC all ganged up to take down Bernie this week.
How did that go?

The online poll, released Thursday, shows that 20% of registered Democrats and independents said they would back Sanders over 11 other candidates to run in the general election against President Donald Trump, an increase of 2 percentage points from a similar poll that ran last week.

Another 19% supported Biden, 12% said they would vote for Senator Elizabeth Warren, 9% backed former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and 6% said they would support Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

Sanders and Bloomberg have increased their level of support in each of the last three Reuters/Ipsos polls starting in mid-December, while support for Biden, Warren and Buttigieg has remained flat.
...
The poll shows that standing does not appear to have been hurt by his recent confrontation with Warren over Sanders’ views of women and politics.
So far, Sanders’ and Warren’s support remains unchanged among women, with about 15% supporting Sanders and 11% supporting Warren.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted in English throughout the United States from Jan. 15-16.

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that George W. Bush MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner. Nothing else will do.

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34 users have voted.

@Le Frog
how come Silver's numbers don't look like the polls?

In fact, this is all pretty normal at this point in a presidential campaign — especially for a candidate in Warren’s situation. And there’s even some initial evidence that her strategy is working! Voters in our post-debate poll with Ipsos gave Warren the highest grade of any candidate for her debate performance — which mostly featured a positive, policy-oriented message along with a couple of chilly moments between her and Sanders. Meanwhile perceptions of Warren’s electability improved among voters in the poll after the debate, while Sanders’s favorability ratings worsened.
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17 users have voted.

@gjohnsit someone else I wish would disappear into quiet obscurity. I saw on David Schuster's Twitter feed that even Tucker Carlson (!) got wound by what happened at the debate and said that if forced to choose between CNN and Bernie, most Americans would choose Bernie. I know it's a shot at CNN by just another moronic hack, but it's stunning how more in tune with reality thoses baskets of deplorables are.

Anyway, bless Nate's heart. While he's reading tea leaves, I'm scooping out the litterbox: tomato, tomahto!

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30 users have voted.
thanatokephaloides's picture

@Le Frog

Anyway, bless Nate's heart. While he's reading tea leaves, I'm scooping out the litterbox: tomato, tomahto!

That alone would incentivize me to believe you over Silver.

"Hi-yo Silver, away!"

Wink

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16 users have voted.

"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

Cassiodorus's picture

@gjohnsit "Ooooh I do statistics! Look at me!" Every time I look at any of his stuff I think back with pride on the grade of "B" I got in my statistics class.

When I was in a communication studies program at The Ohio State University we were all required to take a two-unit stats class. Well, I attended the sessions, and I don't think I understood much of anything in the textbook or in the lectures. I did, moreover, feel rather lost when trying to do the problems in the tests. I think my main problem was in not really believing in what I was doing -- in the past I did okay in math classes through first-year calculus, but stats appeared to me as a thoroughly bogus subfield of math, giving scholars the courage to say all sorts of nonsense because "look at the statistical analysis!" So all of my hard work in stats class was perfunctory. But hey, I got a "B"!

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15 users have voted.

"Neither time nor cognitive decline has, however, has calmed (Biden's) blood lust or a lifelong commitment to planetary collapse." -- Jennifer Matsui

mhagle's picture

@Cassiodorus

And I had not been in a math class since the tenth grade. Thought my head would burst. What got me through was my uncle, who was a junior high principal, bought me "Statistics for Idiots." Plus my professor was hillarious. He actually was teaching us how "statistics" are used to lie.

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12 users have voted.

Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

ppnortney's picture

@gjohnsit

for a political candidate to outright lie, that's exactly what we're looking for in our political leaders!

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The smaller the mind the greater the conceit. --Aesop

The Liberal Moonbat's picture

@Le Frog

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12 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the one-eyed man is declared insane when he speaks of colors.

snoopydawg's picture

This looks hinky...but then it's the DNC who decides which candidate gets to win.

Twitter is abuzz with shaming people to vote blue no matter who because Trump is so bad. I keep asking those people who are pushing this that if Trump is such a dangerous president then why are democrats continually voting for his agendas? So far no one has answered me.

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36 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

Mark from Queens's picture

@snoopydawg
this piece claims it was at the behest of Bernie.

Q: Why are Democrats making this change?

A: The new rules were mandated by the DNC as part of a package of changes sought by Bernie Sanders following his loss to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential primaries. The changes were designed to make the caucus system more transparent and to make sure that even the lowest-performing candidates get credit for all the votes they receive.

And it’s not just Iowa that is affected by the changes. The Nevada Democratic caucuses on Feb. 22 will also report three sets of results.

Anyone familiar with the rules change meeting and/or what exactly was the impetus for this?

That said Iowa remains foremost in my mind about 2016. Because Bernie should have been declared winner outright. The Des Moines Register, who endorsed Clinton, called the whole thing a "debacle," inferring that the correct winner wasn't chosen. Had Bernie won outright and then destroyed her in NH it would have been harder for them to have cheated him with that much momentum.

Guess we'll see how this goes. But it's gotta be vert closely monitored.

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16 users have voted.

"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:

THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"

- Kurt Vonnegut

Thanks. I'll be using that one myself. It gets right to the point.

@snoopydawg

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17 users have voted.

@entrepreneur usually I get blank stares, reflexive denials, “but...but...but...” or some variation of all three. IMHO, people don’t know, don’t want to know and don’t care.

Sigh.

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snoopydawg's picture

@snoopydawg

Screw unity, Bernie is weak for not attacking Warren

Thoughts?

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9 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

ppnortney's picture

@snoopydawg

Screw unity, Bernie is weak for not attacking Warren

between saying "screw unity", which many of us do, and expecting Bernie to launch a personal attack on Warren of the type shown here. He is not going to do that, it flies in the face of who he fundamentally is. It's not weakness to focus on the policies that Americans are struggling and dying without, and leave the gossipy "Survivor" score-keeping to the vacuous talking heads since that's all most of them are really good for anyway.

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10 users have voted.

The smaller the mind the greater the conceit. --Aesop

snoopydawg's picture

@ppnortney

But the media for its stupidity and for focusing on petty things like republicans did back in the day.

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6 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

@ppnortney they exactly wanted Bernie to say something inflammatory. That’s what the whole “hot mic” thing was about. If he goes on the attack, it will all be “see? He’s misogynistic.” and it will continue to dominate the news. Right now, especially with non-friendly media taking his side and defending him, he is playing this correctly, IMHO. Let MSDNC make the case for him.

That said, I would hope he doesn’t forget this moment either.

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9 users have voted.
Wally's picture

@Dr. John Carpenter

. . . and helped immensely in snuffing it out like a candle so Bernie could move out of the situation.

I'm starting to think Steyer might be at least a halfway decent guy.

The impeachment hearings/trial is going to put a lid on the confrontational aspect of it for the time being, but I'm sure Warren is still in cahoots with mass media folks to keep pumping the anti-Bernie sexist/racist tropes.

What was the worst about it is that the Bernie campaign was just starting to rev up criticisms of Biden and this desperate underhanded ploy of Warren sidetracked it some. But I guess the GOP will hone in on Biden/Burisma as we move forward. Biden won't do well in the early primaries aside from SC anyway. Super Tuesday on March 3rd will be the BIG determining factor in who is in contention for and maybe even who gets the nomination.

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8 users have voted.

@Dr. John Carpenter
Retaliating against Warren in any way would have a price

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snoopydawg's picture

Bernie.

It's bad when a news article from ones home state doesn't believe you.

Why did Warren do it? Simple: Because she’s losing.

Having tried to run as the smart candidate, the energetic candidate, the consensus candidate and the fightin’ candidate, Warren has fallen back to the last refuge of the progressive scoundrel: Identity politics.

“Look at the men on this stage,” Warren said Tuesday night. “Collectively, they have lost 10 elections. The only people on this stage who have won every single election that they’ve been in are the women: Amy (Klobuchar) and me.”

Warren’s campaign has devolved from “I’ve Got A Plan for That” to “Girls Rule, Boys Drool!”

A Bay State aside: What’s the deal with Massachusetts Democrats using their political victories in Massachusetts as proof that they are tough campaigners who can’t be written off. First it was Liz Warren’s “upset” victory for the U.S. Senate, now it’s Deval “Nobody expected me to win” Patrick.

Wow. Who knew all these years that Massachusetts was a bastion of red-state Republicanism? Democrats bragging about winning in Massachusetts sound like Kim Jung Un celebrating his long-shot victory in the Supreme People’s Assembly.

For Liz Warren, this is just another example of the fundamental inauthenticity of her presidential bid. Over the summer, she was touting Medicare For All as a matter of political life or death. Tuesday night she treated it like a recently dumped boyfriend, refusing to even say the phrase a single time (check the transcript!). She did, however, say she would “build on the Affordable Care Act.”

No wonder progressives don’t believe she’ll really fight for a single-payer system. Or for the Green New Deal. Or that Bernie Sanders said a woman couldn’t win.

Warren is lying, trashing Bernie Sanders in a desperate bid to get his women supporters to save her sinking campaign. She’s hoping “I Am Woman, Hear Me Roar” will work better than “I’m Gonna Git Me a Beer.”

As Nina Turner said:

I know 30 years ago Warren was a republican

Asked after the debate about whether Warren’s remark was unfair to Sanders, Turner took a jab at the Massachusetts senator.

“You should ask [Warren] that, but I know 30 years ago she was a Republican,” Turner told reporters, according to HuffPost.

Turner's comment came as tensions have mounted between Sanders and Warren after news reports emerged that Sanders told Warren during a private dinner in December 2018 that he did not believe a woman could win the presidency.

It was only after she went to Capitol Hill, she told the newspaper, that she “picked sides” and “got in the fight.”

“I quickly discovered that every single Republican was on the side of the banks and half the Democrats were,” Warren told the Times. “But whenever there was someone who would stand up for those working families, it was a Democrat.”

Bull. Democrats haven't stood up for working families since long before the Clintons slimed their way into the WH and then destroyed everything democrats once stood for. The democrats moved so far right they became republicans and Warren finally joined them.

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37 users have voted.

America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

the party joined me."
@snoopydawg

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20 users have voted.

@entrepreneur she voted for Nixon, Regan, Bush 1 but in the mid 90s switched. Hmm. Were those Reps standing up for working families? I must have missed that.

You’d think someone who went from there to being a Democrat “progressive” presidential candidate would have a story about that they’d want to tell. Oddly, she never brings it up. Wonder why?

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14 users have voted.
Situational Lefty's picture

I'm proud of her anti-war ass being up there so far.

It reminds me of 2000's chants of "Let Ralph Debate!".

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24 users have voted.

The United States of America is the birthplace of Martin Luther King Jr., Harriet Tubman, Cesar Chavez and Emma Lazarus.

Centaurea's picture

@Situational Lefty

is the strongest woman in the primary. I don't mean she is in the strongest position to win. I mean she is mentally and emotionally strong; smart, tough, resilient, and willing and able to take action.

She's just the kind of woman whom you'd think those self-proclaimed "feminists" would rush to support. They're not doing so, and I don't think it has much to do with her policy positions or even her "present" vote that garnered so much fury.

I think they reject Tulsi because they are looking for someone on whom they can project their own life stories. Someone through whom they can act out their rage and resentment. In 2016, Hillary willingly served the role of carrying their projections. This time around, it was Kamala first and now Warren.

Tulsi is not playing the dysfunctional game that would attract those kinds of people to her.

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34 users have voted.

"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Wally's picture

@Centaurea

I trust both Tulsi and Nina wind up in upper level spots in a Bernie Sanders administration.

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20 users have voted.
Centaurea's picture

@Wally

I fully expect both of them to have important positions in the Sanders administration. It's interesting to speculate what those might be. From what I can tell, Nina and Tulsi have a good personal relationship and respect each other, so they presumably would work well together.

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18 users have voted.

"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Wally's picture

@Centaurea

I'm not usually one to put the apple cart before the horse but the idea of Tulsi and Nina being appointed to whatever got me thinking . . . And although I really do abhor IdPol . . .

Well, we can still dream and imagine this or that, can't we?

Tulsi or Nina as VP? Tulsi as head of Dept of Defense (let's change the name to Department of Peace as per Dennis Kucinich's idea), Rep to UN, Sec of State? Nina as head of Dept of Housing and Urban Development?

Warren has certainly, I hope, pissed her way out of any position. And maybe Justice Dems can run a real Native American against her in Massachusetts. Sorry but her backstabbing of a purported friend and ally really ticks me off. I would have expected that kind of stuff from Clinton as part of her MO but I was surprised and disappointed that it came from Warren. I probably should have known better given her track record. My blood is still boiling.

Susan Sarandon for head of National Endowment for the Humanities or something even more solidly political.

Briahna Joy Gray for Press Secretary, for sure, for sure.

Katie Halper? Nomiki Konst? Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor? Rosario Dawson (is she still with Booker?)?

Would Klobuchar as VP be a good idea to balance the ticket? Would she even consider such a role with Bernie?

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10 users have voted.

@Wally Krystal Ball as a Bernie admin soothsayer and political advisor. She does have political experience having run for Congress in VA(?) a few yrs ago. And has been doing yeowoman work on his behalf with astute political commentary at The Hill.

Klobbachair as Bernie's VP? Well, she is a slightly better fit with him, as a sop to the centrist Dem wing, for the reassuring woman factor, for some white middle-class moderate appeal in the MW and Upper MW. Ideologically, there is some concern in a JFK/LBJ sense, assassination insurance issues and all that. But unlike that unlikely awkward pairing, Klob doesn't bring ethical and trust issues, and apart from occasionally Klobbing her staff, doesn't have nearly as many felony priors as the corrupt, scheming Lyndon brought.

I think Bernie could do better, however, and probably with a woman who brings a two-fer as a POC. I very much liked the rec one poster gave the other day of the Latina NM Gov Michelle Grisham. A dynamic, impressive public speaker in the one lengthy YT video I saw. Good sense of humor too. Would help bring more Hispanics to the polls -- a group that traditionally underperforms in turnout -- and wouldn't hurt with AAs. She could even help put AZ in play.

I continue to think Liz has screwed herself re being picked for VP. No longer on Bernie's short or long list. Not a wise pick for Biden, unless he wants to alienate millions of voters for Bernie.

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Wally's picture

@wokkamile

. . . if there was just some way she could find a bigger forum than The Hill on YouTube. But then there's the problem of having to worry about being corporate unfreindly. I could see her in just about any position in a presidential administration but she is just sooo freaking amazing on media. I really can't think of anyone more insightful and sharp.

Your LBJ-Klobuchar take really freaked me out. Really insightful though. And scary af. Reminds me how serious politics really is.

I'll check out Michelle Grisham who I know nothing about. I am totally clueless about who a winning VP would be at this point. And again while I really don't like IdPol, when it comes to selecting a VP, I don;t see how it can be avoided and that it almost has to be a black woman at this point in time, no?

If Bernie does pull off the miracle, though, it will really be interesting to watch all the party hacks come crawling, trying to make nice to him.

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9 users have voted.

I wonder whether Bloomberg is running only so he can legally run full-on attack ads against Trump? I don't think he could do that, at least not without significant restrictions, as a private citizen. The occasional bit of media attention he garners is just gravy.

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Wally's picture

@MinuteMan

He's definitely taking votes away from Biden.

I just saw Bernie is doing quite well in the most recent NYS poll (I think I was surprised that he was even leading the pack but now I can't find the poll) where Bloomberg might be expected to be at his best (but I figure the Rubicon will be crossed by then).

So what is Bloomberg's utility and to whom?

I can't see him as directly helping Clinton or whoever in terms of a second ballot coz he's not going to get 15% of the vote anywhere, thus no delegates to horsetrade. But he still serves to keep Biden away from winning on the first ballot.

If Bernie pulls off the miracle, Bloomberg could run third party but he has stated that he will provide support to Bernie if he wins the nomination.

I noticed that in the latest NH poll, Klobuchar jumped way up to 10% from 2%, obviously taking votes from Warren and Biden. So, she's actually helping Bernie. I don't imagine TPTB will let her continue her run too much longer.

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Bob In Portland's picture

To show you how well things can remain hidden in the MSM, I just discovered last night that as a Republican and corporate lawyer Warren represented Dow Corning/Dow Chemical in that huge class action suit by thousands of women regarding Dow's leaking breast implants. As you may suspect, her role as a corporate lawyer was to minimize the payout to the victims.

This morning I think like it's one of those things that everyone knew but nobody talks about. I mean, how can a woman run under the progressive feminist banner and work for such a foul corporation that injured thousands of women (silicone leaking into your body is bad for your health)?

Did anyone here know this about Warren?

How can you present yourself as a feminist with this on your resume without multiple explanations and mea culpas?

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ppnortney's picture

@Bob In Portland

And how can you avoid any meaningful media scrutiny, especially when you're pulling your IdPol schtick?

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The smaller the mind the greater the conceit. --Aesop

Centaurea's picture

@ppnortney
"Meaningful" being the operative word there.

The corporate media is not interested in giving the public meaningful information. As we know, their purpose is to propagandize.

The information about Warren's corporate lawyering for Dow has been in social media and independent news sources. MSM is not going to touch it.

You know how Tulsi Gabbard destroyed Kamala's campaign, when she talked about Kamala's AG career during the debate?

I'm glad she did, but it should not have been left to Tulsi to inform the American public. That was basic information about a presidential candidate that the news media should have reported on.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Mark from Queens's picture

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17 users have voted.

"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:

THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"

- Kurt Vonnegut

ppnortney's picture

The poll shows that standing does not appear to have been hurt by his recent confrontation with Warren over Sanders’ views of women and politics.

The obvious implication being that he has problematic views which he assuredly does not.

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The smaller the mind the greater the conceit. --Aesop

Situational Lefty's picture

they hate Dennis Kucinich.

They hate actual anti-war politicians.

They're more than willing to back fake anti-war candidates like Barack Obama and Mayor Pete!, but when it comes to people like Dennis and Tulsi it's just like "Yuck, this one's too anti-war!" get rid of him/her. Identity politics be damned!

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3 users have voted.

The United States of America is the birthplace of Martin Luther King Jr., Harriet Tubman, Cesar Chavez and Emma Lazarus.