Early December Primary Status

At this snapshot in time, below are the likely winners (should polls be believed) of early primaries and caucuses (note, many candidates might take delegates from each of these states, but below is listing who will win the *most* delegates). I'm cutting it off at Super Tuesday.

Bernie Sanders: New Hampshire, Vermont, California (3 states)

Pete Buttigieg: Iowa (1 state)

Joe Biden: South Carolina, Nevada, Texas (probably most of the other southern states, which include Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia, although no polls have been taken there) (8 states)

Elizabeth Warren: Massachusetts (1 state)

Sanders *could* surprise in Nevada (he polls a strong second to Biden there), Warren *could* take California away from Sanders (she's polling a strong second there), Buttigieg *could* take New Hampshire from Sanders as well.

There's still about a couple months to go before Iowa, so there is time for these things to change. But as of now, that's how things are starting to shape up.

So, what will be the national reaction if after SuperTuesday, Biden has 8, Bernie has 3, and Buttigieg and Warren each have 1 state? (I mean, besides general malaise and despair?)

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

Thanks for keeping us up to date apenultimate, but personally I don't buy anybody's numbers right now. Scientific polling has devolved into a mere marketing gimmick before our very eyes.

But that's also what makes this particular silly season so interesting: two months out from Iowa and nobody can even definitively say who the frontrunner is.

Gonna be an interesting New Year....

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

karl pearson's picture

I think Bernie will take Oklahoma. During the 2016 primary he carried most of the counties there and beat Clinton by 10 percentage points. Sanders should do well in Nevada too.

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Centaurea's picture

@karl pearson

I was getting ready to make the same comment about Oklahoma. Bernie did extremely well there in 2016.

Nevada, too. Bernie clearly would have won Nevada if the DNC and the state Dem organization hadn't pulled its crooked shenanigans at the state convention. (After which, the DNC made up that "chair throwing" BS in order to cover up for their own corruption.)

I think Texas is promising, as well, especially if Beto throws his support to Bernie.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Alligator Ed's picture

@Centaurea

Bernie clearly would have won Nevada if the DNC and the state Dem organization hadn't pulled its crooked shenanigans at the state convention.

Does one expect a non-fix in Nevada against Bernie--Any Body But Bernie redux? Beto throw his support to Bernie? All 12 remaining supporters. Yeah, that'll help enormously. Beto can throw a chair farther than any Olympic athlete but no one will be around to watch. But Beto is still campaining south of the border, down Mexico way. He is auditioning for a table-dancing contest con sombrero y todo (do not try ordering this on the menu). Señor Beto O'Rodriguez is proposing El Paso be returned to its rightful owners--no Not the Mexicanos but the Aztecs. Or is it the Incas?

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Centaurea's picture

@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed
influence with Texas voters. He didn't do well with his presidential campaign, but he got close to taking Ted Cruz's Senate seat, and in Texas, that's saying something.

I don't have any inside information as to whether O'Rourke would endorse Bernie for the nomination, although I've seen speculation about it. But if he does, especially if he got out and campaigned in Texas for Bernie, I think it would have an effect.

(Sorry for the title quote from another Texan, sort of: "all hat no cattle" George Dubya Bush.)

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

@karl pearson
and in California.
I predict the DNC will cheat again and those will be awarded to Biden.

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We are so screwed.

@karl pearson yes Karl
Bernie carried all but one county in the 2016 primary in Oklahoma
In 2019 he is one of the few candidates with any visible presence in Oklahoma.
Anecdotal evidence suggests a far stronger antiTrump than pro anyone this year among the non Trumpsters

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gulfgal98's picture

Don't write off Iowa for Bernie just yet. Buttigieg has spent a lot of money in Iowa on ads, but Bernie has the ground game. The Sanders campaign has said that they will have at least one volunteer monitoring at every caucus site (1,677 in all) and probably two at most sites. Turnout will benefit Bernie over the other front running candidates so the ground game is important.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

dervish's picture

and Buttigieg and Biden can be counted on to flame out. This will boil down to a race between Warren and Bernie, and I think Bernie has the upper hand.

The DNC and their billionaire owners are praying for a miracle, but I don't see one on their horizon.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

@dervish
they buy them.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@FuturePassed The only thing money can't buy is poverty. Old saying, pre-neoliberalism. New version: the only thing money can't buy is personal poverty--but yours isn't looking too secure.

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Seems like all of the frontrunners have some potential for
fading or crashing out.

Warren - as her elite fakeness continues to wear through the "just plain folks" cloak of concealment.

Bernie - seems plenty dynamic now, but health has to be considered a wild card.

Biden - stands to lose out due to corruption being exposed, potential age and/or health issues or whenever people start noticing his difficulty in stringing a couple of coherent sentences together.

Mayor Pete - Worries me, but it's hard to see the attempt to pass him off as some Jimmy Carter meets Mr. Rodgers gay latter day Jimmy Stewart will really fly - especially when it's shown how little support he really has in Indiana.

Prospect of the nominee not carrying their home state can't be too inviting (see Al Gore, 2000).

Which leaves an unlikely but plausible path for Tulsi Gabbard - she can keep their ass in line in any case and she and Yang have ideas that deserve to be heard, not swept under the rug.

Different landscape, but was Jimmy Carter any further ahead in 1976 than Yang or Gabbard are now?

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@Blue Republic
No one with a Chinese name will be elected President in 2020 or the near future.

It's stupid and racist but that's the American voter.

Also, no Russian, either.

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We are so screwed.

Alligator Ed's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness Yang couldn't get into Harvard now--too smart for the entitled ones on legacy or government fast tracks. No Chinese need apply. "But I'm American!"
"Shut up Andrew, you're still a chink".

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edg's picture

@Blue Republic

How many losing presidential candidates have actually carried their home state when the state was a different party marjority-wise like Tennessee was for Gore?

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@edg
but I did, and found out that:

Going back to 1960, only two losing candidates - McGovern 1972 and Gore 2000 lost their home states.

*But* it appears that nominees whose home states are not reliably for their own party are pretty darn rare, McGovern and Gore being pretty much the only ones I could find.

Which seems a little odd since the ability to flip a reliably blue or red state would seem to be a definite selling point.

For example, if Buttigieg could really flip Indiana, it would be pretty significant. Kind of hard to imagine him actually pulling it off, though.

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edg's picture

@Blue Republic

I agree about ability to flip a state being a good selection criteria.

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@edg

James Knox Polk, in 1844, did not carry his home state (Tennessee, again). He won anyway.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@TheOtherMaven

and then there is the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave...

Lost NY but his prospects are a whole lot better with Florida...

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@Blue Republic

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@Blue Republic Jimmy Carter was polling at 2% as of Dec. 1975 meaning, if the DNC debate qualification criteria of today were in effect back then, he would not even had made the Dec. debates.

So, yes, I would not count Tulsi or Yang out at this point.

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detroitmechworks's picture

Especially considering she's on a publicity/NOTacampaign tour right now. Including denying every single "allegation", on a tabloid talk show, so the media can nicely claim that the subject was already addressed, SHUT UP.

Course, the problem is that even if I'm right, I can't do a damn thing to stop it. So why bother? This has already been rigged twelve ways from Sunday, and Four Times on Sundays. Course, I do understand that some folks think voting will work, which would be great... if we could decide what we're voting for. Don't remember even wanting ONE of these jackholes. And sorry folks, Do NOT like Bernie. When it was time to push, he played sniper, then blamed those of us that rushed in along with the other team.

I only play target for people I care about, and he ain't worth it. He's already proven it. Actions, not words. He does a lot of complaining, but knuckles under whenever he needs to and has the social standing and land to prove it.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

Alligator Ed's picture

@detroitmechworks

I only play target for people I care about, and he ain't worth it. He's already proven it. Actions, not words. He does a lot of complaining, but knuckles under whenever he needs to and has the social standing and land to prove it.

Ninja rock--falling head and all that. WTH do you find these songs? They are great.

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detroitmechworks's picture

@Alligator Ed that I found that I liked. My musical taste is extremely eclectic, and I like the Folk Metal scene... Hell, even Non-Japanese bands can nail this stuff, and be awesome...

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

WoodsDweller's picture

is going to determine who wins. Biden's strength is in the 50+ demographic, Sanders' strength is in the 50- demographic. The pollsters are all assuming a low turnout election where only the 50+ voters show up.
If the Sanders campaign can turn out the 50- voters en mass then he wins pretty much everything (I still think Biden can win in South Carolina and avoid being shut out completely). Warren's support doesn't vary much between 50+ and 50-. Buttigieg only has support in the 50+, he'll be in high single digits at best.
By the time Super Tuesday is over, Biden and Buttigieg will drop out. Warren will stay in for a while but only getting a handful of delegates. Bloomberg will spend multiple hundreds of millions of dollars and get zero delegates. Sanders will reach the convention with enough delegates to win on the first ballot. He proceeds to crush El Trumpo. He will have major coattails and whatever progressives are on the ballot (not enough, sadly) will sweep into office along with him.
If they can't get the 50- folks to show up, then Biden wins three or four of the early contests, most of Super Tuesday, and shows up at the convention with enough delegates to win on the second ballot with super delegate support. The party is divided, young voters swear off politics forever, Trump curb stomps Biden in the general and fascists sweep into power. The nation sinks into eternal darkness, never to recover.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett

@WoodsDweller
no matter who is the candidate. The phony political impeachment will ensure that the Democratic brand is tainted. No one but the true zealots are in favor of impeachment based on "I feel that he was soliciting a bribe" or "I feel that he was looking for dirt".

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We are so screwed.

@WoodsDweller Going on in your analysis. I still think Trump will win the EC even if he loses by ten million in California. How am I doing with interesting speculation.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@davidgmillsatty loses the election by 32 million to one, in a state with 30 million registered voters--but, hey, who's counting?

Alex Padilla is Sec. State and chief vote distributor (kinda like Mary Kay or Amway).

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Bob In Portland's picture

Hopefully people will count the numbers of states across the South that Clinton won in the 2016 election, which, as I recall, was zero. Running a neoliberal is surrendering the South to the GOP (and Trump). Sanders could take some of those states. Just saying.

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@Bob In Portland
I would appreciate input from our Southern members.
However, it seems to me that Charlottesville is an indicator. I always felt that Charlottesville was more progressive than the rest of the South.
Although n Jimmy carter's presidency i recall some nicely dressed church ladies in a restaurant saying "Communists drove Nixon out of office."

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We are so screwed.

@The Voice In the Wilderness Trump won 92 out of 95 counties here.

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mhagle's picture

We'll see. I cannot imagine Iowa going for mayor Pete. Being from Iowa and watching many videos of Bernie's work there.

I am in Texas. Don't know how bold I can be but . . . I might be ready to explode.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

ludwig ii's picture

Any day now there will be a surge for Amy Klobuchar, as voters hear the siren songs of Refinance Student Loans At A Slightly Lower Rate and Expanded Personal Tax Credits! Also don't count out Michael "Miguel Bloombito" Bloomberg, whose Spanish fluency will help him win over those Latino voters in Nevada. These two Very Serious Candidates with their Common Sense Solutions are going to end up the last two standing! Democrats are a little too wary of hard-left, pie-in-the-sky candidates like Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren.

/MSMpunditry

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Alligator Ed's picture

@ludwig ii Liz's favorite is Cherokee Chow Mein Pie. Cory Booker's is Elijah Cummings' seasonal Rat Pie topped with dark chocolate.

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@Alligator Ed
How about Berry Bernie or Tulsi toffy...Lemon Liz and Mincemeat Biden

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