Bernie for the win

This recent NY Times article about how Trump is beginning to lose the independent voters that made all the difference in 2016, references a survey by Marquette University.

The exit poll showed Mr. Trump winning independents in Wisconsin by 10 points in 2016. In a recent survey by Marquette University Law School, these voters preferred Joe Biden to Mr. Trump by a nine-point margin.

One thing about that survey: of all the Democratic candidates, only one of them have a net favorability by independents - Bernie (45 - 38).
Not only did the NY Times fail to mention that, they never used the word "Sanders".

While centrists want to get moderate Republican unicorn voters, Bernie goes after the tens of millions of non-voters that lean Democratic.

And yet, while nonvoting Democrats were more ideologically heterodox, and averse to identifying as “liberal,” they also expressed some sentiments that will hearten leftists who imagine them as latent revolutionary subjects: 51 percent of Democratic nonvoters said they wanted a presidential nominee who will “fundamentally change America”; only 42 percent of regular Democratic voters said the same. Meanwhile, nonvoting Democrats were also more likely to support single-payer and to approve of Bernie Sanders, who boasted a higher “very favorable” rating among such Democrats than Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren. In fact, Sanders was the only Democratic candidate to enjoy higher favorability among nonvoting Democrats than those who regularly show up at the polls.

non-voters.jpg

Independents and typical non-voters often don't show up in survey polls.
However, one thing that can be easily measured is donations.

The Daily Beast reports that in the 206 counties that went for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then went for Donald Trump in 2016, Bernie Sanders is raking in far and away the most individual donations. Sanders has received 81,841 donations from 33,185 donors in flipped counties. That’s roughly three times as much as runner-up Elizabeth Warren, who received 26,298 donations from 13,674 donors. Buttigieg comes in just under Warren, with Biden trailing closely behind.

The GOP is hoping and praying that Bernie wins. They think that he'll be easy to beat.

“It would be good for us to have a nominee like that,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who is up for reelection next year and sounded downright giddy about the prospect of Sanders representing Democrats at the top of the ticket...
But Republicans could be making the same mistake Democrats made four years ago, when Trump launched his presidential campaign and they began salivating over the prospect of a Senate sweep.

If Bernie is going to be so easy to beat, then how come he's the leading contender in Texas?
Bernie defies almost all accepted political norms, so it shouldn't be a surprise if the voting doesn't match the polling.
Of course the most significant poll is this one.

The poll found that 22% of Fox News viewers who also identified as potential Democratic primary voters back Sanders compared to just 13% of MSNBC viewers.

Sanders was an outlier in this regard, as every other 2020 Democratic included in the poll had more support among MSNBC viewers than those who tend to watch Fox News.

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Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emerged from prison on Friday after a year and a half behind bars, offering his "eternal gratitude" to throngs of supporters camped outside and vowing he hasn't been defeated yet.
The two-time president known simply as Lula was greeted by family, friends and party faithful who were waving red flags and "Free Lula" signs outside the jail in the southern city of Curitiba.
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@gjohnsit

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alertnet

Embarrassed by Facebook’s role in the 2016 election, Zuckerberg responded to his fake news problem by systematically shutting down liberal and progressive news blog pages, killing their revenue and effectively shuttering independent sites like Banter Media. Whereas Breitbart has no problem buying the eyeballs of their audience with Mercer family cash, Facebook has squelched traffic to Mother Jones and Daily Kos. While a conservative pressure campaign has succeeded in moderating Facebook’s zeal for post-2016 reforms, with Diamond & Silk bringing their contrived tale of woe to Congress, no similar public relations offensive has occurred on behalf of the once-dominant liberal blogosphere. Zuckerberg has destroyed it with nary a whimper of protest.

Uh, Facebook killed neoliberal blogs like GOS?

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@gjohnsit
My cousin's wife once called me on a Friday because she had not received an RSVP for a party on Saturday, the next day. I told her that I knew nothing about the party, and never got an invitation. She was astounded. "But it was on Facebook!" Doubly astounded when I said I didn't have a Facebook account and never would.
She's about 60. She should have known better.

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Sanders-Gabbard 2020 !

Hawkfish's picture

@gjohnsit

That is why is is so important to support sites like this that use their own infrastructure. It might seem more expensive but in life you generally get what you pay for...

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Eagles92's picture

But I don't believe for a second that Republicans think they can beat Bernie. Quite the opposite. They know they can't, which is precisely why they're spreading the word, loudly and widely, that they can: to give the Democrats cover for denying him the nomination. Again.

It's not a bug, it's a (bipartisan) psy-op feature.

And it's why we can't have nice things.

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@Eagles92 I agree, @Eagles92 I agree, eagle

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NYCVG

@Eagles92

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

@Eagles92 any cover for denying Bernie the nom. The party PTB have been rather overt about their preferences so far; ditto for their buds in the MSM. It's all happening above board for all to see.

Re Rs hoping for Bernie as an opponent, I believe they believe he would be their weakest opponent. Let them believe that. It will make them overconfident, the way Ds were in getting Donald last time, and tend to dampen their turnout. If Donald will easily beat Bernie, maybe a lot of R voters won't feel it necessary to go to the polls for what is expected to be an inevitable outcome.

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ggersh's picture

is himself, he needs to FIGHT back at the
establishment and go independent if necessary

The first obstacle....the repuglican wing of the D party

https://twitter.com/ThomasIsOnline/status/1079870178077433858

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trump will be amerika's last president

On Iran, as one person said ‘In electing PM M Mosaddegh, we had the first democratic election in 4,000 years- and the USA came in and fucked it up for us.” So much for democracy and freedom.

Hawkfish's picture

That wasn’t written by Sydney Ember. It was a remarkably positive piece on the Latino vote being big for Tio Bernie.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Eagles92's picture

@Hawkfish #NotMyAbuela

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Hawkfish's picture

@Eagles92

Probably because I found her not simply distasteful but uninteresting.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

I believe they would come out strong for him. He holds similar values that seem shared by the southern half of our hemisphere, and once upon a time by us too. We have been pushed into a survival mode to the point where it seems like the only thing we value is money.

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Would he win the EC? I think it could come down to three or four states that were close last time.

And we may see in the not too distant future where a Democrat wins the popular vote by four or five percent and still loses the EC.

The EC is not going away. If it does, then the USA will be run by a couple of powerful states like Germany, France, and until recently the UK, ran the EU.

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@davidgmillsatty

Notably, Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Sanders takes those three + the 2016 Dem states, he wins. Too soon for general matchup polls to be very meaningful, but he's currently polling ahead of Trump in all three of those states. Clinton also lost Ohio (18 electoral votes) and Florida (29), and Sanders is currently beating Trump in those state polls too.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Reverend Jane Ignatowski @Reverend Jane Ignatowski

which beltway Dems always write off (because, well, they're full of icky deplorables and who cares about poor farmers anyway) are also very much in play with Bernie's popular rural policies, grassroots organization, and massive small donor funding.

Howard Dean's 50 state strategy worked for Obama. Twelve years later, there's no reason it won't work even better for Bernie.

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Peace Sells

@Not Henry Kissinger

Another contrast between other Dem candidates and Sanders is that he's proven both willing and able to campaign in territory that's not welcoming to establishment Democrats, which could help him net enough votes in enough counties in enough plains and midwest states.

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@Reverend Jane Ignatowski popularity in those blue firewall states he won last time, according to the polls I recall seeing. And the local/statewide elections held recently indicate further erosion of the Trump GOP, especially with suburban Rs. I suspect we will see more of this trend next year in the finals.

These national matchup polls we see are largely meaningless, as they still reflect mainly name ID. Most/many primary voters are still not tuned in to the ongoing process and could only name a few candidates. Biden has the most name ID other than Trump. Bernie has the second-highest name ID among Ds as he ran a prominent and nearly successful campaign in 2016. Liz and the rest are still unknown to a large number of D primary voters. And primary voters are the ones more engaged in the political process than general election voters.

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@wokkamile

These national matchup polls

I was talking about state-by-state polls, not national polls, and while I mentioned it was too early for them to be particularly instructive I'd rather rely on some kind of data than guessing.

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@Reverend Jane Ignatowski much if the matchup polls are nationwide or in early primary states -- they aren't terribly useful at this point given that too many voters are still not adequately engaged and knowledgable. As these type of questions are more a measure of name ID right now (until at least Jan) they are probably advantaging name ID people like Trump and Biden.

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@wokkamile I think the polls mean very little right now. A lot can happen in a year. The Democrats will surely shoot themselves in the foot with impeachment proceedings. A lot of rank and file Democrats and Progressives think this is bullshit. If any of the candidates push the impeachment effort too hard this could backfire big time.

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