The coming recession will be brutal
According to the Fed’s recession probability model, the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are the same now as they were in July 2007. That was when the credit markets first seized up, leading to the 2008 Great Recession five months later.
It's both amazing and depressing how many statistics that I can quote that you would normally expect to find in midst of a deep recession.
These sorts of trends should never, ever be seen late in an economic expansion, like we are now.
The number of homeless kids in public schools has increased by about 70 percent over the past decade to 1.3 million.
71 million, 31.6 percent of US adults, have debt in collections reported in their credit files.
Nearly 1 in 5 families saying they had experienced difficulty paying for food or medical care, and 39 percent of Americans ages 18 to 65 experienced at least one type of material hardship.
Four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense.
48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening
For the second time in three years, the average life expectancy in the United States has actually gone down, driven in large part by suicide rates, reaching 14 per 100,000 in 2017 (up from 10.5 per 100,000 in 1999).
U.S. households have a record-high $13.86 trillion in debt.
CEO compensation surged 940% between 1978 to 2018 while the average worker saw a meager 12% pay hike over the same 40-year period.
"I think there is a misnomer that the recession has passed and that we are on an upward trajectory with jobs and the unemployment rate, but many are left behind. The living wage is not something that is the reality in many communities."
- Marjory Givens
For roughly one third of Americans there was no recovery.
This same group will be the ones impacted first and hardest by the next recession.
Tens of millions of people who are only barely making it now will be pushed into abject poverty, hunger, and homelessness.
Just blaming the victims, or scapegoating immigrants, will no longer be good enough. Not when you stomach is empty.
What's worse is that there will be no monetary solutions because the central banks have no ammo, after leaving interest rates too low for too long.
Things could get ugly.