Pre-election Predictions Perilously Pernicious to Democrats
Submitted by Alligator Ed on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 7:17pm
Talk is cheap. Thus the following essay is offered with no expectation of financial reward. I will publish my MidTerm prognostications and invite other swampers to do the same. In view of the fact that none of us has absolutely ANY facts to back up your predictions--yet--please submit your guesses in the comment section. Then--and only then--if you are correct, YOU will get an opportunity to baffle us all with brilliance while explaining your methodology.
My first prediction is that Nate Silver will be Wrong (Dewey beats Truman).
Senate: GOP 54 or 55 seats..............Dims 45 or 46 seats
House: Dims gain less than 23 seats.
Advice for the Dims: play this song Election Day:
Comments
Come on now.
Even though nate of the silver tongue was horrendously wrong in 2016, he has come forward with a very doable 50/50 for the dims taking the house. He's really stuck his neck out this time. Snort.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Pretty much a safe bet here which Nate effed up again.
Technically speaking there is a 100% chance that Repugnants OR Demonrats will win the house majority. Talk about clarity of expression! Somebody ought to tell NS how to calculate his odds better.
I see no blue wave
this year. Nor do I see a red wave.
Sen.: No change or Repubs +1 or +2
House: No change or Dims +2 or +3
2020 will be a Much better year for Dims.
Expect both Houses to flip.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
my prediction is that only 10% of eligible voters
will vote, causing a Constitutional Crisis that will moot the entire election. The candidates will be so furious that the smoke that comes out of their collective ears will effectively...Rapture them into the stratosphere accompanied by a resounding chorus of 'good-bye cruel worrrrrrld!'
my methodology comes from the ghost of george carlin who came to me in a dream last night. he told me that amerikans finally had a massive collective psycho-spiritual epiphany yesterday, and have heeded his long-time credo. the 10% voting were mail-in ballots, of course, the poor suckers.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVJI3HHsWyg]
We don't need no Constitutional crisis!
'cause we ain't got no functioning constitution. But we gots lots of surveillance--so smile pretty now.
Predictions are nothing but an illustration of hubris
but what the hell, I like intellectual exercises, so here goes.
My methodology is simple, I've looked at prior elections. (1994, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016) I see a clear pattern and nothing to think it might change. The Democratic Party is slowly but indisputably dying. They will continue to lose seats, perhaps even in the House, but possibly not enough to allow a coup de gras that would finally demand an ascendant Berniecrat party.
Trump hatred will not lead to a Democratic reinvigoration, but it probably will allow the Dem fascists to continue their lie that they are a legitimate opposition. If Trump goes down as the worst President in history (a title I believe belongs to either Jackson, Coolidge, or Obama) it will be because Trump hatred allowed the Democrats to continue beyond their expiration date.
On to Biden since 1973
Good analysis there.
The Dims are slowly dying and are too ossified or senile to recognize their self-directed path to the garbage pit of history. Like the monkey who stuck its hand in a narrow-necked jar to grab a peanut and then couldn't extract the hand without letting go of the nut--but refused to let go anyway.
Where's their policies?
Without giving the voters something to vote for, the Democrats deserve to die like the dinosaurs they are. They created their own obsolesence.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
To vote or not ..
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
All you need to predict that is a little history
It's pretty much what Augustus Caesar did when he took over the Roman state. He kept all the republican forms, while quietly gathering all the real power into his own hands. If he had had successors half as competent as he was, the farce might have continued a lot longer. But they ranged from the venal to the moronic to the out-and-out psychotic.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Blue Wave in Blue States, Red wave in Red States.
Dems will probably increase in the House. I doubt if it will be a majority. Would be astounded if they win the Senate. Good chance of losing seats in the Senate.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
No way will the Dems win the Senate
I predict they lose one or two Senate seats and I have failed to see where they pick up any new seats. Meanwhile Hillary still wants to be President. Sigh.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Run, Hillary, run!
Of course that is a physical impossibility since Medusa can only slither.
But let's not forget creepy perv Biden! If she can't do it, Baby-Fingers Biden can proudly lead the DINOs back to the early 19th century to which they are rapidly regressing. Maybe back to the Cretaceous (because they are mostly cretins).
Agree totally
except for
Let's make that:
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
The d's take the house
after every republican obstacle and appeal has finally run it's course. In the interim the r's jam through everything they can. Trump maintains the election was stolen. D's start investigations, r's stonewall. D's hold rallies and demonstrations, Trump brands them traitors. R's smirk. Chuck and Nancy are Chuck and Nancy. D's spend all the time defending themselves, accomplishing little of what they campaigned on. People are disappointed.
Congratulations on the concision of your predictions
Your observations are probably accurate.. So why do we need to bother with all the smoke and mirrors? It keeps our minds off things like austerity, wealth inequality, surveillance state and whether Michelle Obama is actually male (this is within the realm of possibility because Barry has no balls).
this is how it will shake out in deep East Texas
If Democrats win, it will be because poor people of color voted to get free stuff.
If Republicans win, it will be because poor whites voted to keep poor people of color from getting free stuff.
No matter who wins, it will be blamed on poor people.
No matter who wins, poor people get hosed.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
I expect to see major gains in blue governors....
Congress will be hard to change with all of the gerrymandering. Dems may pick up a few. Senate stays the same. Even if the Dems take the majority in the House and/or the Senate, the conservative/corporate Dems will continue to cross over and vote with the GOP. In Washington, nothing changes. The one hope is to gain back control of the states.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
I think you are right
although I would like to see GMO Kate in OR sent home.
Gillum looks good and so does Abrams; we will see if they can govern. As for alleged corruption in Tallahassee, what I have read sounds like biz as usual in just about any medium sized city, in the South or out of it--you should try living in a western city, Stockton, Boise, Modesto et al where the govt. is owned and operated by big landowners in cooperation with a coalition of used car dealers, real estate glad handers and insurance companies.
Mary Bennett