Russian sanctions are about to blow up in our faces
The whole idea of sanctions is to isolate your enemy by giving incentives to keep 3rd parties from engaging with your enemy. But what if no one cooperates?
What if your allies keep doing business with your enemy? What if you are forced to sanction your allies? If that happens, who is the one being isolated?
We will soon find out with Turkey.
The United States has warned governments around the world that they could face sanctions over any "significant transactions" they make with Russia's military, senior U.S. officials have said.
...The officials confirmed that Turkey, which is negotiating the purchase of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia, is one of the countries that received the warning. Turkey has said it is also looking at alternative systems to purchase from NATO allies.
Turkey isn't "negotiating" to purchase weapons from Russia. They inked the deal months ago.
So the question is will we sanction our NATO ally?
Turkey, like our allies in Europe have already lost billions from existing Russian sanctions.
Turkey is hardly the only ally we are looking to sanction.
Despite having relied on the US to fight the Islamic State (IS), Baghdad has just taken delivery of a major shipment of Russian military equipment and is considering further such arms purchases.
Iraq announced earlier this week that 73 Russian T-90 tanks had arrived at its southern port of Umm Qasr. The tank purchase was agreed upon some time ago, but other reports suggest that Baghdad may now buy the Russian S-400 air defense system.
If Baghdad proceeds with the S-400 purchase, it could well oblige the Trump administration to impose sanctions on the country.
...The US is loathe to criticize Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi and his government because it is counting on him to win Iraq’s upcoming elections. However, State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert essentially explained on Thursday that if Iraq were to actually conclude a deal for the purchase of the S-400, it would likely trigger CAATSA sanctions.
It's not without some irony that 15 years after our sanctions on Iraq ended with our invasion, that we are looking to reimpose sanctions.
The list of potential allies that will soon be forced to sanction is long.
A new law meant to punish Russia for election interference could force the Trump administration to sanction some of its closest allies -- including Saudi Arabia and India -- a possibility that has put capitals worldwide on edge.
The dilemma shows how Moscow's election malfeasance is deepening Washington's acrimony, complicating US foreign policy, and could ultimately force some allies to choose between the White House and the Kremlin, at a time when Russia is aggressively expanding its influence, particularly in the Middle East.
...The client list of these blacklisted Russian entities includes US counterterrorism partners such as Morocco, Algeria, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Qatar is a Russian customer, as well as crucial NATO ally Turkey.
...In India, which the Trump administration has deemed a keystone of its Asia policy, there is unease and frustration. New Delhi and Moscow have been close allies since the Cold War. Russia is India's largest weapons supplier, providing it with the nuclear submarines that serve as a deterrent against China.
Following the letter of the law would mean us sanctioning virtually the entire muslim world, plus India.
There is a real risk here that Democrats simply don't appreciate.
That distrust is rooted in history, as the US sanctioned India for years under both Democratic and Republican administrations. "The line in India is, 'you keep saying we have to collaborate against China, but you want to sanction half our army, half our navy and military -- how serious can you be about our alliance?' "Iyer-Mitra said.
Indian officials fully expect the US to grant them a sanctions waiver, as it did under Iran sanctions, sources say. But a source familiar with discussions in New Delhi, who spoke anonymously to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, said that even so, "senior Indian officials will tell you it's really troublesome - if India is pushed to choose between Washington and Moscow, the US might not like the choice it makes."
There is another side to this: how much are our sanctions hurting Russia?
The answer is, not much.
The Russian economy has returned to modest growth – amidst positive global growth, a recovery in trade, rising oil prices, and growing macroeconomic stability – according to the World Bank’s latest Russia Economic Report (no. 38 in the series), launched today in Moscow.
Russian debt is about to return to investment grade.
Basically the sanctions against Russia are not working, and if we keep pushing it, it'll be the U.S. that is isolated, not Russia.
Comments
Sanctions
are the CYA of brain dead politicians.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Recently watched a movie dramatizing the 1948 Berlin airlift
To underscore how inadequate the airlift’s capacity was in its early phases, the movie showed kids as well as grownups dying for lack of medicines and supplies.
A light went on in my head. I imagined Stalin, dressed up as Madeleine Albright. “Children in western sectors of Berlin die — effect of
sanctionsthe blockade — regrettable — tough decision — but, we think, da, is worth it.”We're already isolated anyway.
Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.
Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.
LOL! Let them keep screaming about new sanctions,
nobody gives a damn.
Once the dollar topples, it's game-over anyhow.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
Absolutely. American hegemony is going
to join the dinosaur and the dodo bird.
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Well when your country is seen as the biggest impediment to
peace on the planet, things are bound to get a little flakey. And because our PTB consistently get caught lying, why would we think anyone could or would trust us? And since we have a record of having no doubt sbout our ‘right’ to kill innocent people from war rooms thousands of miles away just because they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time (like in their own neighborhoods for instance) they probably think there’s good reason to hate us. And because we speak openly about ‘regime change’ in regard to any country that doesn’t carry our water, why would anyone be surprised if they don’t want to be our ally?
What is there left to like or trust? TPTB in America have shown time after time that in order to do business with America, you HAVE to accept American economic and foreign policy without any backtalk, hesitations, or question. The rest of the world is getting sick of it.
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
As The Empire Crumbles
American politicians have killed Kabuki. America has turned in to a very poorly scripted soap opera with horrible actors. Repeating the same fundamental errors again and again. The same worn out script over and over and over.
And the media keeps pretending there is a substantive reality to every dreary rerun.
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
It is notable that Russia's economic recovery was not
predicated on borrowing. Their current debt is not any larger than it was prior to the oil price crash and sanctions. They now have a healthy foreign reserve balance. They even increased their purchases of US treasury notes and gold.
Russia is currently looking at block chain technology for voting.
Russia has almost no public debt
Their public debt is around 10% of GDP (as opposed to us with over 100% of GDP).
It makes them less vulnerable to economic sanctions
US sanctions have actually helped Russia become self-sufficient
They are now the world's largest supplier of wheat and are gaining on other agricultural products. Exports of ag products has surpassed armament exports.
Demand for Russian ag products is increasing at a rapidly expanding rate. One of the reasons is that the Russian government under Putin's watch has banned GMO products throughout the country.
As to our biggest export
Weapons and Death. Lots to be proud of. Not
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
Yah sort of amazing.
Made me think of potatoes. Russian potatoes have been infected with all sorts of bugs, etc. even though they are the third largest producers of potatoes. If they could clean up the crop and become efficient large scale farmers, I would think that China and India would be a huge markets. Last I read that China was actually the largest producer of potatoes in the world. India was second.
I believe they are working on it
Russian and Chinese potato crop zones run adjacent to one another and they have a close working relationship. China is the world's largest producer of potatoes.
Here's an interesting aside about potato diplomacy between Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry.
Why did Russia give US secretary of state John Kerry potatoes?
Most excellent links and articles.
Long time ago I read about Cornell developing through breeding a potatoe resistant to ton of diseases, etc. I actually thought of getting some and growing them for farmer markets.
Cornell-bred, blight-resistant potato variety -- New York 121 -- is sent to Russia for testing to stave off potato crisis
http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2001/06/potato-variety-sent-russia-stave...
I could not find them and writing to Cornell was well, too chickenshit. I don't Russians took up the strain.
But the problem if you call it that was the potaote was small. And Americans want their potatoes big and fat.
The fact that China and India were the biggest producers gotta say ruined some cliches about what people eat (having family from E. Europe). Two years ago I had a potatoe curry at an India restaurant and it was soooooo good. I asked an Indian about potatoes and said very common but not something Westerners associate with Indian cooking.
This time WE dropped the Iron Curtain.
Are they proud to be in the same corner as Josef Stalin?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Wasn't there a time when trade created "interdependence"
I remember back when when trade was seen as creating peace because countries would be dependent on each other and less likely to engage in destructiove disputes. That the best way to undermine the old Soviet Union was by selling them jeans and exporting rock and roll.
And that seems to be the case. Germans depend on buying Russian energy as much as Russia is dependent on selling it. This thing with Russia and energy independence is just propaganda as EU has many sources of getting energy, only not as cheaply as from Russia. The US solution is for
Europe to use much more expense energy products from American suppliers.
As for the sanctions working. Russia seems to be developing self-sufficiently in a number of areas and investing in them. Food independence seems to be a goal that is seeing realizing in a number of areas. And of course, Russia now looks to China for new markets in various areas.
No contradiction there.
Just like a schoolyard bully, we alternate between threatening them and taking their
lunchjeans money.Turkey is too deep in neocons pockets
To ever leave the alliance. The opium trade has gone through Turkey to the US since before Skull and Crossbones (and it's agency, the CIA) even existed.
That brings up a different problem
OK. We don't sanction Turkey.
We don't sanction India.
We don't sanction KSA.
We don't sanction Iraq.
Uh, then the sanctions are a joke.
That becomes a diplomatic liability.
Just more political kabuki
to make it seem as though "we" are actually "doing something".
There is no justice. There can be no peace.