The US Economy Is Worse Than You Think
From Naked Capitalism. After covering the weakness in consumer spending, the Republican threat to the health care Industry, silicon valley, energy and fracking Jim Chanos summarizes:
It could all just be a soft spot in an ongoing expansion — time will tell. But the narrative we were told is that animal spirits would take us to the next level of economic activity. That clearly is not happening in mid-2017.
We’re 8 years into an economic expansion, and economists say that the modern U.S. economy has never gone more than 10 years without a recession. So as recoveries go we are well into it.
And this:
LP: How serious do you view the weaknesses in the economy we’ve discussed?
JC: One of these things that we’ve talked about wouldn’t be so bad, but you put them all together and the U.S. economy doesn’t look so great.
The big 3 drivers are still housing, autos, and health care. They disproportionately count for a huge amount of activity. What we see is that housing has stalled, autos have turned down, and health care is possibly about to turn down. Retail is also turning down. Nike is laying off 2 percent of its workforce. I can’t remember the last time Nike said it was laying off people.
Again, this could simply be cyclical, and as we reach the end of the expansion it gets harder and harder to generate new sales as peoples’ leverage has gone up. It could be that, but the problem is that we’re not well equipped to handle anything other than a downturn that’s mild because the Fed is already at near-zero interest rates.
Buckle up your seatbelts. We are heading for the mother of all depressions. Of course it will be the Democrats fault because . . . reasons. And the Twitterer In Chief sez so!
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/07/jim-chanos-u-s-economy-worse-thin...
Comments
Bankruptcies Jump!
A quick add on from a few weeks ago over at Wolf Street:
Bottom line:
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/06/bankruptcies-consumers-businesses-rise-...
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
Aren't you concerned
about getting banned on GOS for the crime of posting here?
Posting anywhere but GOS
GOS owns the internet, and they certainly aren't going to tolerate cross-posting.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."
I'm Not Meteorblades
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
Nevermind then
@Meteor Man Armando, who gives
Amirite?
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Bingo!
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
In a sense it IS the Democrat's fault
Of course it's also the Republican's fault. But this particular iteration can be laid squarely at the feet of Obama and his decision to pay off the crooks rather than imprison them. It was hardly a stretch to imagine that if the last GFC paid off so nicely for them that they'd want to do it again... and again...
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
All the more reason
for more and bigger wars.
Apart from the risable recovery, we've got a stock market bubble and pension fund collapses among other things showing the rot at the heart of our economic system.
By what faith beyond all understanding can we expect either party to deal with reality, even a little bit?
Orwell: Where's the omelette?
Like Derivatives?
2016-2018 Looks A Lot Like 2007-08:
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/03/22/2016-2018_is_looking...
(includes a relatively clear cut explanation of the big picture Not wonky)
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
There are two economies.
One for the very rich, upper class and upper middle class and one for the rest of us. The one for the rest of us sucks, but it has for a long time, and it will for a long time coming.
Add in the department stores that have been closing
such as Sears, Radio Shack, Payless and other big brand named stores. These stores have been around for decades and the biggest named stores have been bookends for all the malls and full of shoppers.
Now all over America have been closing since the 2008 debacle and cities are wondering what to do with the empty buildings.
If the republicans are able to repeal the ACA and phase out Medicaid , the number of jobs lost is going to hit every industry that is connected to the health care industry. Just one example is janitors who clean hospitals, pharmacies, doctor's offices, medical supply companies and a lot of other companies that are related to health care. Then add in the other careers and jobs and staff and we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people who will lose their jobs.
After that happens, look at places like car lots and the jobs connected to them will also be affected because people won't have money to buy cars. You can keep adding in more and more industries going out to infinity.
Oh well, at least rich people will receive a tax cut. But what can they spend money on if there aren't any places left that sells things that they need?
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.
I feel I am contributing to the closure
of department stores, somewhat. I buy my clothes in thrift stores. I refuse to pay the prices of new clothes. My 19 yo granddaughter also reminds me that "thrifting saves lives, Oma."
The economy is not good for us; is not working in our favor. We need to brace ourselves. The worst is probably coming.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
The wealthy can just fly to Paris or Tokyo for a shopping trip
Hi-end luxury accommodation in the wealthy cities is booming.
Developing nations are experiencing growth in consumer spending. In many countries such as China, malls and high-end stores are doing very well with 8-12% yearly growth. The average salary in China will rise 7% (after inflation - real rise 4.7%) in 2017.
China's consumer-led growth market is going to be exported with the Belt and Road Initiative from Asia to Europe and Africa. This area contains 2/3's of the world's population and is ripe for massive growth. China has discovered the key factor is spending in infrastructure - roads, rail-lines, airports and ports - to enable the movement of people and goods.
It was less than a decade ago that many Americans were laughing at Chinese spending in their infrastructure - all those unused apartments, empty highways and massively expensive rail-lines and airports they said the Chinese would never be able to afford to use. Well, surprise! They rapidly filled up and more is now required to be built.
Meanwhile, infrastructure in the US is steadily decaying. It will cost at least what is spent by the defense industry to even begin to rectify this problem. America has to make a decision fairly quickly. Will the country continue to spend it's treasure on filling coffins or will it finally come to it's senses and start to fill coffers like the Chinese?
This is an interesting article about Sears
Sears stores have rats and broken toilets
One store had a broken toilet for 3 weeks. Sears told their employees that they need to clock out and drive to a gas station or a mall.
How nice of them. In order to use a toilet, employees are told to work less hours and use their gas.
Probably in some parts of the country, these jobs are the only ones available.,
Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.
Sad. When I was a kid in Honolulu, Sears was *the* place to go
In the early 1950s Sears had a building between Beretania and King Streets. I liked it when my mom took me there because it had air conditioning and was the only place in the whole city with escalators.
When Ala Moana Center was built, Sears moved there as the anchor department store. The city took over the old building and turned it into police headquarters.
Sears — along with Liberty House, originally a German clothier, expropriated and renamed during World War I — were our family’s idea of upscale. But then, the childhood Hawaii I remember, before statehood and mass jet travel and satellite communication, was, if not quite Third World, not fully First World either. Sort of Sesqui World (“sesqui-” = 1½).
Magazines mailed from North America arrived months late. Christmas TV shows aired in February because that’s how long it took to edit together a film version and ship the reels from the East Coast across the continent and then across the ocean.
California is pretty pretty bad already, meltdown jubilee
This is not just a "citywide trend" in Sacramento, unfortunately.
Surge of cops headed to Oak Park. Will there be enough for your neighborhood?
Unrelated to reality, that guy is. It's the economy stupid! Meanwhile, up near where I live : Santa Rosa prepares to clear out Homeless Hill. Again! Yet another "program" for the professional class.
Duh, but nobody listens. Just make another program with more rules telling people they are not worth keeping family together. Not worth it. Then what happens? Windsor man dies after apparently setting himself afire in car . Don't search the phrase "man lights self on fire" omg I had no idea it is all over the place.
California government will spend more than ever before under the new budget, and still have the most people without housing, the most people underpaid and over worked, go Jerry. "That's the system". Make enough "high earners" to tax, all others scrape for whatever crumbs get "mitigated" to trickle down. As the world burns.
Watch China because everything the US assholes did here they exported over there and repeated. Now, when their middle-class bubble pops, California is gonna feel it bad, that's what I think. I guess everybody will. Cheap crap and cancer for the win.
P.S. Add salesforce.com to the list of monstrosities marring the San Francisco skyline. TransAtlantic Pyramid, the Bank of America building (always remembered as black heart of the city), and now the latest permitted architectural
mucilagemucus called the salesforce building, or something like that. Homage to empty suits, mass marketing leeches. Unbelievable. Renting a "sales" product? lol pricelessEdited: because mucilage is a good thing, not what I meant.
A side view of the problem.
The crux of the problem was the stark lack of shelters and other accommodations. We had a surveyed population that needed housing that was thousands more than the available number of beds.
One of the proposed "solutions " was to kick the higher functioning out of their housing since they would be more likely to find a solution on their own. There was a great pushback to that, but I had to leave and haven't been home for a couple of years so I don't know how it ended up.
Let them eat Trump steaks
If the worst happens economically, at least we'll have someone in the White House with loads of experience dealing with real world fiscal setbacks!
If you want to eat Trump Steaks you will have to go to Russia
They have bigger herds of Genuine US Certified Black Angus Beef cattle than America.
Don't laugh.
Trump's ability to slither out of bankruptcies and business failures that would have crushed an ordinary person might be just what we need when the seeds of recession laid during the Obama years bear fruit.
If we had a National Sorting Hat, would it put him in Slytherin?
As a schoolboy Harry Potter’s father was a bully and a thief, yet was a Gryffindor nonetheless.
Is it brave to speak and act, never fearing that someone might be offended? Seeming to stir up a hornet’s nest every time? Maybe Trump is a Gryffindor after all?
Hufflepuff: loyal, dependable, hardworking? Um — no.
Oh, I know! Ravenclaw — like Gilderoy Lockhart.
I think that gift applies to Trump and Trump alone
Everybody else--look out!
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
It didn't just happen this year
Are those jobs supposedly created since 2008 fictional bullshit?
America's Debt Slaves Are In Trouble
The "Twitterer in Chief" has already taken credit for good times
He has already claimed that he is responsible for recent, so called, good news on the economy. I guess he's completely capable of switching on a dime if there is only blame to be had.
Beware the bullshit factories.