Democratic turnout craters
This is bordering on a crisis for the Democrats.
The number of Democrats who voted in Super Tuesday states this cycle was down 32 percent this year compared to 2008, according to a Daily Caller analysis of primary and caucus results.
Meanwhile, GOP turnout was up a monstrous 61 percent in Super Tuesday states compared to 2008 and up 73 percent compared to 2012.
In the first four primaries/caucuses Democratic turnout was down 28%. It was down 30% in Nevada. So the trend is getting worse.
Turnout virtually cratered in Texas, which Clinton won in both cycles. There, just over 1.4 million voted this go-round compared to 2.87 million in 2008. The 51 percent slide is the steepest of any of the contests held Tuesday.
Turnout was also down significantly in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee. It fell 28 percent, 34 percent, 29 percent, and 41 percent in those states, respectively.
Republicans have the opposite story. Almost twice as many of them turned out yesterday than what voted in 2012. Republican voting in Virginia increased by 107 percent compared to 2008 and 282 percent compared to 2012.
To put this another way.
A tally of nine states where Democrats and Republicans both headed to the polls on Tuesday shows that total turnout looks much like it did eight years ago — but the numbers are reversed by party.
I know some people have tried to shrug this off as nothing important, but historically it is important. But don't take my word for it.
Strong turnout is typically a sign of how enthusiastic and engaged a party's voters are, a point Republicans are driving home as they tout the GOP's record turnout. And generally, a party's primary or caucus turnout is higher when its voters are engaged in the process and the race is competitive--both of which are true on the Republican side.
The Republican side this year also has Donald Trump, whose polarizing campaign has drawn headlines and brought new people into the fold of presidential primary politics. Plus, while many people show up to the polls to vote for a specific candidate, others come to vote against someone. "There's no question about it: Donald Trump is the main cause of high Republican turnout," Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said recently. "Love him or hate him, he's the center of attention."
This might not be as bad as it sounds though.
Still, lower Democratic turnout doesn't necessarily mean the party's voters aren't paying attention, or that they won't show up in November. On the Democratic side, 2008 was a historic election--and Democratic Party officials say it was always unlikely they'd be able to match it again, even with a contested primary between Clinton and Sanders.
...
"It's not clear to me that the levels of engagement right now signal that Republicans will have a victory in November," he said. Still, he added: "All things equal, I would rather have high turnout than low turnout for my contested nomination contest."
Some have painted this as a case of "both candidates are to blame", but exit polls say otherwise.
The exit polls give some hint of trouble in this regard. It isn't Clinton but Sanders who has energized millennials, progressives, and independents and attracted large crowds to big rallies, not to mention bringing in millions in small donations. While the exit polls don't provide us with a strong measure of enthusiasm, they do suggest that this may be a potential issue for Clinton should she capture the Democratic nomination.
The thing is that the 2008 primaries were contested until very late. If Hillary wraps up the nomination on March 15, then turnout for the Democrats will look even worse in comparison.
Comments
DWS and the DLC know what they're doing.
Hillary must win.
If they have to burn this motherfucker to the ground in order to make it happen, they'll do it.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
The denial on DKos has gotten bizarre
"reality-based community" my ass.
it's the Supreme Court, stupid
Jane Kelly being vetted. Comments at dKos...
first, the diarist:
then the crowd forms and says...
how hard is it to look up stuff like this?
my point being, it's not Bernie and Hillary's fault...
it's the fact that Obama has done precious little to make Democratic voters think the Democrats stand for anything. Hillary's platform is "I'll do nothing the same way Obama did". And the Dem party has hidden behind "the Republicans won't let us" so long....7 years!!!...that some of the "hopers" have given up.
I don't think this is a crisis for democrats per se,
I think it's crisis of the representative government political system. In 2014 we had the lowest turnout in history at 37%. Now we're getting Hillary "the Warmonger" Clinton and Donald "the Racist" Trump which is about an unfuckingspiring as it can get. Probably Trump turned on a few more old people than Clinton did and that's why more republicans voted, keeping in mind the republican turnout is absolutely meager also. So what we're seeing is a continuation of the public tuning out of this system which is impacting the Dems a little more at this time.
Whether one supports a boycott of this rigged, corrupt, and totally inadequate system or not, it would be prudent to highlight this lack of participation and why it's happening. It's not apathy in majority, it's total frustration and lack of respect for this system. It has to go, it won't get better.
Mr. Scribe was just
Mr. Scribe was just commenting on this same issue last night.
That's what happens when you let the Republicans soak up all the political oxygen -- no one else can effing breathe.
IMHO, this is partly due to Dems crossing over to vote for Trump
this election cycle.
I posted a Washington Post article similar to this one, a couple months ago at EB.
From TR (Truth Revolt):
This piece is dated, but the data appears to be relatively sound. It will be interesting to see if he is successful in the other Southern states cited in this piece, and/or in New York state.
Sorta pushed this evening, but after the primary on the 15th, I'll post the quote I heard earlier today about Bernie's role in the Dem Party (ostensibly, after he drops out of the race). Personally, I don't believe that he would consider dropping out before early summer (if things don't go his way). Also, I think that you're probably correct that we should have a good idea by mid-March, who the Dem Party nominee will be.
As they say, though, "it ain't over, until it's over."
Thanks for this diary, gj.
Mollie
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Louisiana Dumb
This is my first entry in the caucus99.
I am really frustrated with the attempts by those in the management of the DNC to make the Democratic Party less liberal, more republican, less inclusive and less intent on making sure we have no repeat of what happened in 2014. We have primaries to select our nominee and do not need the DNC choosing our candidate for us.
Sadly we just had a primary election here in Louisiana. I know some people voted early but yesterday a scant 15% of the registered voters even cared to show up at the pols. The numbers do give the Dems a slight edge in the % but still way below comfortable. Out of 801000 registered Democrats we had 293000 votera. The repubs - out of 1.4 million had 292000 vote. That is good for the Dems but Trump got 42% of the republican votes and we are the BIBLE BELT!
I look at the voter ignorance and apathy and wonder if we will survive as a republic.