A communist shakes up the French election

Until recently the talk in France's presidential election was all about either Le Pen's bigotry or Fillon's corruption, and the only alternative was the quasi-neoliberal centrist Macron.
But now someone else has surged into contention - Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
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The French Communist-backed presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is closing in on the frontrunners Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, according to new polls.
A rally held by Mélenchon drew tens of thousands of supporters on Sunday, underlining his surging popularity just two weeks from the election on 23 April and adding new drama to a rollercoaster campaign.
After strong performances in two televised debates, several surveys at the weekend showed him climbing to third position, with 18% to 19% of voters saying they would vote for him.
Speaking in Marseille, Mélenchon said voters had a choice other than the extreme-right “condemning our great multi-coloured people to hate itself” and fans of the free market that “transforms suffering, misery and abandonment into gold and money”.
The left-leaning news magazine L’Obs commented that “the sudden emergence of Jean-Luc Mélenchon among the four candidates with around 20% has shattered all the predictions, [and] is sowing doubt among the favourites”.

If you need to picture this election in a left-right arc:

Le Pen is far-right
Fillon is center-right
Macron is center
Hamon is center-left
Melenchon is far-left

Here's a break-down on their relative positions.

I gotta say that I like Melenchon.
He's still behind, but he's surging in the polls like no one else.

When margins of error are taken into account, that suggests all four candidates are in a position to be among the top two after the first round of voting on April 23, and that the contest remains wide open with a month to go until the May 7 runoff.
“It has effectively become a four-way race,” said Kantar’s Riviere.

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That being said, France has a very long history of shooting communists.

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After Al From supposedly convinced a Democratic Arkansas Governor to run for President--which Bubba was clearly aiming for anyway--he and Hillary toured Europe to spread the neoliberal gospel there. So, for whatever reason, it was important to them that Europe be neoliberal, too. (Heaven forbid Americans see a leftist government model that works?) That may mean Macron will get quiet help from outside France. So, while I want Hamon or Melenchon to win, I dasn't get my hopes up too high.

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Amanda Matthews's picture

Marine Le Pen denies French role in wartime roundup of Paris Jews

The French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has denied that the French state was responsible for the wartime roundup of Jews at a Paris cycling track who were then sent to Nazi death camps.

The former president Jacques Chirac and the current leader, François Hollande, have both apologised for the role French police played in the corralling of more than 13,000 Jews at the Vel d’Hiv cycling track, which was ordered by Nazi officers in 1942. But Le Pen told the LCI television channel on Sunday: “I don’t think France is responsible for the Vel d’Hiv.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/09/marine-le-pen-denies-frenc...

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I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks

Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa

Roy Blakeley's picture

It looks like the left vote is relatively constant with Melenchon taking votes from Hamon. The Melenchon and Hamon curves are mirror images of each other. Btw I am somewhat more favorably disposed toward Le Pen than many are (note: not naive here, her father was, and is, a right wing bigot and there is a considerable legacy of that in the FN). She opposes neo-liberalism and foreign intervention and supports a more sensible relationship with Russia. She supports women's right to have an abortion and she is generally more pro worker and pro farmer than most of her opponents. She is clearly nationalist and secular. She is anti-nuclear and her policies might result in greater greenhouse gas emissions. However, she is not an anti-environmentalist like Trump. I don't read her as a con artist like Trump. In her interviews, she seems to be thoughtful and relatively honest. I think Macron would dish out more of the same merge that France has been wading through for years. Fillion would be even worse. I would support Hamon or Melenchon, but I think this characterization of Marine Le Pen as ultra right wing is simplistic and misleading.

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mimi's picture

@Roy Blakeley
who would have thought...
and you like that? ...

she is definitely smarter than Trump, but that doesn't make her better, no? I missed two documentary style productions tonight on German TV about her ... too tired. But I am really disappointed you would fall for a gal like that.

Just saying.

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RejectingThe3rdWay's picture

@Roy Blakeley

Le Pen disturbing denial

Marine Le Pen, a leading candidate, said Sunday on RTL radio, "I don't think France is responsible for the Vel d'Hiv"— a reference to the Paris stadium where thousands of Jews were rounded up before being sent to Nazi death camps.

Some 13,000 Jews were deported by French police on July 16-17, 1942, many of whom first were detained under harsh conditions at the indoor cycling stadium.

In all, about 75,000 Jews were sent to Nazi concentration camps from France during World War II. Only 2,500 survived.

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When I was a kid, Republicans used to red scare people, now it's the Democrats. I am getting too damn old for this crap!

Roy Blakeley's picture

@RejectingThe3rdWay What she said was that those in power at the time were responsible and not France in general. I personally see her point in that lumping collaborators and resistance fighters together is unfair. Others may be more comfortable with the notion of collective guilt, but it was not holocaust denial as the neoliberal press are trying to portray it.

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lotlizard's picture

@Roy Blakeley The all-atomic national electric power company EDF (Electricité de France), intertwined with De Gaulle’s nuclear force de frappe, have always been a yuuge deal for the “Hexagon” (as France calls itself).

The Hexagon versus the Pentagon — sounds like a pro wrestling attraction.

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Roy Blakeley's picture

@lotlizard eom

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earthling1's picture

it could be an upset.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Strife Delivery's picture

I'd have to nod my head if an avowed communist came forward and won.

I haven't paid much attention to French elections before, but this one has me curious.

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