News Dump Tuesday: War Update Edition

Rebel-held Aleppo nearing collapse

Syrian government forces regained control Saturday of areas they lost over the past two weeks to a rebel offensive on the edge of the northern city of Aleppo, ending a major attempt by insurgents to break the siege on eastern parts of the city, an activist group and pro-government media said...
“The epic battle for Aleppo has failed,” said the Observatory’s chief Rami Abdurrahman, using the term that the insurgents had assigned to the offensive...
On Thursday, Jan Egeland, the special adviser to the U.N. envoy for Syria, said the last food rations in besieged eastern Aleppo will run out by next week. Speaking in Geneva, Egeland said the last time the more than 250,000 people inside east Aleppo received any humanitarian aid was in the beginning of July. Residents and activists in besieged east Aleppo have spoken of rising prices of food products due to the siege.

ISIS-held al-Bab ready to fall

Syrian rebels backed by Turkey were poised to begin an assault to try to drive Islamic State from the Syrian city of al-Bab, two of their commanders said on Monday, a battle that could also prompt new fighting with Kurdish groups that are competing for the area...
Al-Bab is fast becoming a major faultline in the war in northern Syria, bringing Free Syrian Army rebels backed by Turkish armor closer than ever to frontlines held by the Syrian government and its Iranian and Russian allies in nearby Aleppo...
Al-Bab is located 30 km (19 miles) south of Syria's border with Turkey and the same distance from Aleppo, meaning its capture could help rebels to advance against pro-government forces besieging their comrades inside the city.
"God willing with the capture of al-Bab, we will be on the outskirts of the (Aleppo) industrial zone and the outskirts of the Kweiras air port, and the outskirts of the infantry college, meaning in direct contact with the regime," the rebel commander, who declined to be identified, said.
However, allies of the Syrian government late last month warned Turkey against an advance towards their positions to the north and east of Aleppo, saying any such move would be met "decisively and with force".
The Syrian government is backed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lebanon's Hezbollah and other Shi'ite militia.
Al-Bab also sits between two Kurdish-ruled enclaves and its capture would thwart Kurdish ambitions to join them, something some Syrian Kurds regard as necessary to advance their goal of protecting Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria.

Battle for Raqqa begins with a thud

The Syrian Arab component of forces attacking Raqqa have withdrawn from operations, declaring Kurdish forces had broken an agreement to allow them to lead the charge into the Islamic State (IS) group-held city.
In a statement released only days after the "Euphrate's Wrath" offensive began, Liwa Thuaar Raqqa (Raqqa revolutionary brigade) said it would no longer fight alongside the Kurdish YPG militia....
Turkey has previously expressed alarm that the SDF is dominated by the YPG, and an influx of Kurds into Raqqa would change its demographics.
Ankara considers the YPG an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which it considers a terrorist group.
It has vowed to fight it in northern Syria, and warned it could act if Raqqa, an Arab-majority city, is taken by Kurdish forces.

Mosul offensive stalls

The Iraqi army launched an operation a fortnight ago seen as the first step in retaking Mosul from Islamic State. Troops logged ­multiple victories within hours.
Now, there is little talk among military officials of an imminent push on Iraq’s second-largest city.
Days after the offensive began, the army became bogged down just outside the northern town of Makhmour, confronted by up to 200 Islamic State fighters in a ­village on high ground called al-Nasr, according to US officials.
Yesterday, it was still struggling to take the small village after more than a week of trying.

Another 'moderate' rebel battle

Any claim of cohesion within the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the so-called “moderate” rebels in Syria, is clearly falling apart today, as two factions, both of them flying FSA flags, fought one another in a pitched battle over the city of Azaz, north of Aleppo.
Both of the FSA factions involved as Turkish-backed groups, with the Levant Front FSA fighters clashing with the Ahrar al-Sham FSA forces in Azaz, a valuable border crossing into neighboring Turkey. Ahrar al-Sham forces reported seized several checkpoints in the fighting.
Indeed, the Levant Front was losing so much ground that according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights they had to withdraw a number of their fighters from an anti-ISIS offensive in nearby al-Bab, to bring them back to Azaz to fight the other FSA forces.
Fighting amongst rebel factions in Syria is nothing new, of course, but to see two groups both flying the FSA banner, both taking part in Turkey’s anti-ISIS push, and both taking time out of their busy schedule to fight one another is extremely irregular.
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The Mosul offensive stalled once the Iraqi army reached the main city.
The Raqqa offensive is barely even crawling.
Turkey's offensive on al-Bab will soon succeed, but will open a can of worms.
Meanwhile, the Shia militias are about to take Tal Afar, but that could cause Turkey to invade Iraq.

Meanwhile, Aleppo is starving.

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dervish's picture

The Treasury Dept. has declared al Nusra (or Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, as they've been re-branded) a terrorist organization, finally. I suppose that beheading bishops and priests has consequences.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

dervish's picture

Corresponds directly to the first meeting between Trump and Obama. How did we suddenly come to this revelation, after all of these years? Maybe our dysfunctional Syria agenda is finally coming to an end.

I'm really fucking sorry about the SCOTUS. The very thought of it aggrieves me, but choices had to be made. My consolation is that perhaps WW3 has been averted.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Kind of overshadows everything else.

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not exactly. Just yesterday YPG oppened up two corridors from Sheikh Maqsud to east Alepo providing med and food whith the nod from the gov, and the nutral zone Abu Dali run by Shelkh Ahmad Darweesh where food and med is traded with east and west Aleppo despite the MSM narative of a besiged city has always been in opperation.

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Solidarity forever

Lookout's picture

Keep our dirty little wars hidden. Read somewhere T-rump willing to let Assad remain. From what I understand, that is key to peace in Syria. ISIS continues to create issues, I can't see an end game with them.

Thanks for the update. I appreciate all your research.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

dervish's picture

but he's a far cry from Baghdadi. The Sunni jihadi state in Syria isn't going to happen, and neocons everywhere are grieving.

No pipeline for you, Sheikh al-Thani!

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

lotlizard's picture

In fact, being the star of the TV series, he pops up in every episode.

What TV series? “Welcome Back, Qatar,” of course. ::ducks::

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Just kidding. Levity is appreciated when this topic is discussed. It's one way of handling the horror of it.

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dervish's picture

I think the Georgetown crew got to him, and his father was better. Maybe Dad can help guide the next steps.

Yeah, I'm Epstein.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Kenya pushing refugees into war zone

Just two weeks before the deadline given to close the Dadaab refugee camp, Kenyan government officials are deliberately coercing refugees to return to Somalia, where they risk being injured or killed in the ongoing armed conflict, Amnesty International said in a report released today.
The government announced in May that it would close the world’s largest refugee camp, which is home to more than 280,000 mostly Somali refugees, citing security, economic and environmental concerns, in addition to lack of support by the international community. Since then, government officials have made statements in the media and visited the camp, threatening people to leave before the closure slated for 30 November 2016.

al-Shabab gains ground

Somalia-based rebel group al-Shabab has been on the offensive in recent months retaking strings of towns in south and central Somalia.
Since the start of this year the group which is linked to al-Qaeda has retaken at least 10 towns from Ethiopian and African Union troops. They retook four towns in the past month.
Analysts say that the change in fortune of al-Shabab is in part due to events outside Somalia. The anti-government protests in neighbouring Ethiopia is the reason, they argue.

U.S. bombs allies

An airstrike in Somalia that the US said had targeted al-Shabab actually killed 10 members of an allied local militia, US media report, quoting an unpublished Pentagon investigation.
The US says it carried out the September strike to protect Puntland forces who came under fire during an operation against al-Shabab militants.
The strike sparked anti-American protests among local communities.
The Somali army said the dead were civilians and Galmudug regional forces.

while Somalia starves

The Somalian President, Hassan Sheik Mohamud has appealed for urgent humanitarian assistance for nationals affected by an acute drought in the country.
A statement released from the presidency on Monday, saw the President call on Somalis in the diaspora and the international community to intervene ‘‘to aid the situation urgently as it is time for action.’‘
“I appeal to the Somali people, wherever they are all over the world to help and stand shoulder to shoulder with their suffering Somali people who lack food and water due to the drought in the country.
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hoping for good news soon (full investigation)

US armed forces and the CIA may have committed war crimes by torturing detainees in Afghanistan, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has said in a report.

"Members of US armed forces appear to have subjected at least 61 detained persons to torture, cruel treatment, outrages upon personal dignity on the territory of Afghanistan between 1 May 2003 and 31 December 2014," says the report issued on Monday by Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda.

The report added that CIA operatives may have subjected at least 27 detainees in Afghanistan, Poland, Romania and Lithuania to "torture, cruel treatment, outrages upon personal dignity and/or rape" between December 2002 and March 2008.

Most of the alleged abuse happened in 2003-2004, and was allegedly part of "approved interrogation techniques in an attempt to extract 'actionable intelligence' from detainees".

Prosecutors said they would decide "imminently" whether to seek authorisation to open a full-scale investigation in Afghanistan that could lead to war crimes charges.

State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau said the US does not believe an ICC investigation is "warranted or appropriate".

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dervish's picture

But isn't the lesson from Nuremberg that only nations that are defeated in war and prostrate are subject to penalty? I don't see this as having any teeth. International law is an illusion, the powerful will do whatever they like, with impunity.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

It's gonna happen

Opinion polls are making increasingly grim reading for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi less than three weeks ahead of a referendum on constitutional reform on which he has staked his political future.

Of 32 polls published by 11 different pollsters since Oct. 21, every one has the 'No' camp ahead, and generally by a widening margin.

In three polls published on Monday the lead for 'No' ranged from five points, according to IPR Marketing, to seven points, according to Tecne, with EMG Acqua in the middle at 6 points.

These results exclude undecided voters, which are estimated at 25.9 percent by EMG Acqua and 16.5 percent by Tecne. The most worrying aspect for Renzi is that as the number of undecided voters declines, the lead for 'No' appears to be rising.

Bookmakers also hold out little hope for the 41-year-old premier, with Ladbrokes estimating a roughly 75 percent probability of a win for 'No.'

The surveys are so one-way that attention is turning to what Renzi will do if he loses the vote on his plan to drastically reduce the role of the upper house Senate and take powers back from regional governments.

At the start of the campaign he repeatedly said he would resign in the case of defeat.

He then declined to confirm that, saying discussion of his own future deflected attention from the merits of the reform, but in the last few days he has once more began hinting that he will not try to hang on in power if he loses.

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country on Europe's periphery. All the countries were supposed to be as equal as their economies allowed. Apparently they were equal in that all were marked for fleecing by German banks.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

Hanging around dickin' bambinos.

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So do Muslims from Turkey to Iran begin to look around and wonder why every different flavor of Muslim in that part of the world is at each other's throat?

That's some foreign policy genius on the part of the neocons if you want to maximize Muslim deaths and minimize Muslim unity. The only problem is that little issue of blowback.

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